• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.44 no.1
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• pp.44-52
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• 2020

More accurate forecasting of port cargo in the global long-term recession is critical for the implementation of port policy. In this study, the Busan Port container volume (export cargo and transshipment cargo) was estimated using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and the vector error correction (VEC) model considering the causal relationship between the economic scale (GDP) of Korea, China, and the U.S. as well as ARIMA, a single volume model. The measurement data was the monthly volume of container shipments at the Busan port J anuary 2014-August 2019. According to the analysis, the time series of import and export volume was estimated by VAR because it was relatively stable, and transshipment cargo was non-stationary, but it has cointegration relationship (long-term equilibrium) with economic scale, interest rate, and economic fluctuation, so estimated by the VEC model. The estimation results show that ARIMA is superior in the stationary time-series data (local cargo) and transshipment cargo with a trend are more predictable in estimating by the multivariate model, the VEC model. Import-export cargo, in particular, is closely related to the size of our country's economy, and transshipment cargo is closely related to the size of the Chinese and American economies. It also suggests a strategy to increase transshipment cargo as the size of China's economy appears to be closer than that of the U.S.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.217-240
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• 2011

In this study, vector autoregressive and vector error correction models in the short-run dynamics are considered to analyze the effect of the changes in international crude oil prices on Baltic dry index, Baltic Capesize index and Baltic Panamax index, and the intercorrelations between Capesize and Panamax prices, respectively. First, using the vector autoregressive model, the changes in international crude oil price have a statistically significant positive effect for Capesize at lag 1, for Panamax a significant negative effect at lag 3 and a significant positive effect for Baltic dry index at lag 1. From the impulse response analysis, the international crude oil price causes Baltic dry index to increase in the sort-run and the effect converges on the mean after 3 months. Second, using the vector error correction model, the empirical results for the spillover effects between Capesize and Panamax markets provide that in the case of the deviation from a long-run equilibrium the Panamax price is adjusted toward decreasing. The increases in freight rates of the Capesize market at lag 1 lead to increase the freight rates in Panamax market at present. The Panamax responses from the Capesize shocks increase rapidly for 3 months and the effect converges on the mean after 5 months. The Capesize responses from the Panamax shocks are relatively small, and increase weakly for 3 months and the effect disappears thereafter.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.35 no.3
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• pp.61-72
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• 2019

In order to enhance the competitiveness of the container shipping industry and promote its development, based on the empirical analyses using multivariate time series models, this study aims to suggest a few strategies related to the dynamics of the container shipping market. It uses the vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction (VEC) models as analytical methodologies. Additionally, it uses the annual trade volumes, fleets, and freight rates as the dataset. According to the empirical results, we can infer that the most exogenous variable, the trade volume, exerted the highest influence on the total dynamics of the container shipping market. Based on these empirical results, this study suggests some implications for ship investment, freight rate forecasting, and the strategies of shipping firms. Concerning ship investment, since the exogenous trade volume variable contributes most to the uncertainty of freight rates, corporate finance can be considered more appropriate for container ship investment than project finance. Concerning the freight rate forecasting, the VAR and VEC models use the past information and the cointegrating regression model assumes future information, and hence the former models are found better than the latter model. Finally, concerning the strategies of shipping firms, this study recommends the use of cycle-linked repayment scheme and services contract.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.121-126
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• 2014

This paper suggests a new algorithm to provide low-cost GPS modules with DGPS service, which corrects the error vector in the already-calculated position by projecting range corrections to position domain using the observation matrix calculated from the satellite elevation and azimuth angle in the NMEA GPGSV data. The algorithm reduced the horizontal and vertical RMS error of U-blox LEA-5H module from 1.8m/5.8m to 1.0m/1.4m during the daytime. The algorithm has advantage in improving the performance of low-cost module to that of DGPS receiver by a software update without any correction in hardware, therefore it is expected to contribute to the vitalization of the future high-precision position service infrastructure by reducing the costumer cost and vender risk.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.7 no.6
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• pp.1463-1479
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• 2013

In this paper, we propose an unequal protection physical coding sub-layer (PCS) forward error correction (FEC) scheme for efficient and high-quality transmission of video data over optical access networks. Through identifying and resolving the unequal importance of different video frames and passing this importance information from MAC-layer to PCS, FEC scheme of PCS can be adaptive to application-layer data. Meanwhile, we jointly consider the different channel situations of optical network unit (ONU) and improve the efficiency of FEC redundancy by channel adaptation. We develop a theoretical algorithm and a hardware method to achieve efficient FEC assignment for the proposed unequal protection scheme. The theoretical FEC assignment algorithm is to obtain the optimal FEC redundancy allocation vector that results in the optimum performance index, namely frame error rate, based on the identified differential importance and channel situations. The hardware method aims at providing a realistic technical path with negligible hardware cost increment compared with the traditional FEC scheme. From the simulation results, the proposed Channel and Application-layer data Adaptation Unequal Protection (CAAUP) FEC scheme along with the FEC ratio assignment algorithm and the hardware method illustrates the ability of efficient and high-quality transmission of video data against the random errors in the channel of optical access networks.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.52 no.6
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• pp.1327-1333
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• 2020

The global warming phenomenon emerges from the issue of climate change, which attracts the attention of intellectuals towards clean energy sources from dirty energy sources. Among clean sources, nuclear energy is getting immense attention among policymakers. However, the role of nuclear energy in pollution emissions reduction has remained inconclusive and demand for further investigation. Therefore, the current study contributes to extend knowledge by investigating the nexus between nuclear energy, economic growth, and CO₂ emissions in a developing country context such as Pakistan for the period between 1973 and 2017. The auto-regressive distributive lag model summarizes the nuclear energy has negative effect on environmental pollution as it releases carbon emission in the environment. Moreover, vector error correction Granger causality provides evidence for bidirectional causality between nuclear energy and carbon emissions. These interesting findings provide new insight, and policy guidelines provided based on these results.

• Journal of KIISE
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• v.43 no.1
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• pp.80-86
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• 2016

A speech-act is a behavior intended by users in an utterance. Speech-act classification is important in a dialogue system. The machine learning and rule-based methods have mainly been used for speech-act classification. In this paper, we propose a speech-act classification method based on the combination of support vector machine (SVM) and transformation-based learning (TBL). The user's utterance is first classified by SVM that is preferentially applied to categories with a low utterance rate in training data. Next, when an utterance has negative scores throughout the whole of the categories, the utterance is applied to the correction phase by rules. The results from our method were higher performance over the baseline system long with error-reduction.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.247-254
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• 2010

In this paper, a new approach has been studied correcting the geometric distortion of SPOT 4 imagery. Two new equations were induced by the relationship between satellite and the Earth in the space. line-of-sight (LOS) vector adjustment model for SPOT 4 imagery was implemented in this study. This model is to adjust LOS vector under the assumption that the orbital information of satellite provided by receiving station is uncertain and this uncertainty makes a constant error over the image. This model is verified using SPOT 4 satellite image with high look angle and thirty five ground points, which include 10 GCPs(Ground Control Points) and 25 check points, measured by the GPS. In total thirty five points, the geometry of satellite image calculated by given satellite information(such as satellite position, velocity, attitude and look angles, etc) from SPOT 4 satellite image was distorted with a constant error. Through out the study, it was confirmed that the LOS vector adjustment model was able to be applied to SPOT4 satellite image. Using this model, RMSEs (Root Mean Square Errors) of twenty five check points taken by increasing the number of GCPs from two to ten were less than one pixel. As a result, LOS vector adjustment model could efficiently correct the geometry of SPOT4 images with only two GCPs. This method also is expected to get good results for the different satellite images that are similar to the geometry of SPOT images.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.37 no.1 s.70
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• pp.95-110
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• 2006

Japan's frozen shrimp future market is the only fisheries future commodity market in the world. This empirical study examines the lead and lag relationship between Japan frozen shrimp spot and future markets using the daily prices from August 1, 2002 to December 31, 2005. Frozen shrimp future contract is listed on Japan Kansai Commodities Exchange. Japan imports approximately 250,000 tons of frozen shrimp annually, of which just under 70,000 tons, nearly 30%, are black tiger shrimp. Approximately 90% of black tiger shrimp are caught in Indonesia, India, Thailand and Vietnam, and the two largest consumers of these shrimp are Japan and the U.S.A. Kansai Commodities Exchange adopts the India black tiger shrimp as standard future commodity. We use unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test, Vector autoregressive analysis and Impulse response analysis. However, considering the long - term relationships between the level variables of frozen shrimp spot and futures, we introduced Vector Error Correction Model. We find that the price change of frozen shrimp futures with next 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 month maturity have a strong predictive power to the change of frozen shrimp spot and the change of frozen shrimp spot also have a predictive power to the change of frozen shrimp with next 1, 2, 3 month maturity. But, the explanatory power of the frozen shrimp futures is relatively greater than that of frozen shrimp spot.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.231-252
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• 2002

2000년 7월부터 채권시가평가의 실행으로 채권운용자들도 채권포트폴리오의 위험을 채권선물을 이용하여 통제하거나 감소시키기 위해 헤지를 하여야 한다. 이때 헤지비율을 추정하는 방법으로는 전통적 회귀분석모형, 백터오차수정모형(Vector Error Correction Model : VECM)과 VAR모형(Vector AutoRegressive Model)이 있다. 전통적인 회귀분석모형에 의하여 추정된 헤지비율은 시계열자료의 불안정성(nonstationary) 등으로 인하여 잘못 추정될 가능성이 있어 면밀한 검토와 분석 후 사용하여야 한다. 시계열자료의 불안정성으로 말미암아 야기되는 문제점들을 개선할 수 있는 모형으로서 VECM과 VAR모형이 널리 이용되고 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 VECM과 VAR모형을 사용하여 추정된 헤지비율과 전통적 회귀분석모형을 사용하여 추정한 헤지비율을 비교하여 어떤 모형으로 추정한 헤지비율이 더 정확한지를 평가하는데 목적을 두고 있다. 즉, 본 연구는 KTB 현 선물의 헤징에 대한 연구로 2000년 1월 4일부터 2001년 7월 27일까지 385일간의 KTB 현 선물 자료와 불룸버그 국채지수를 대상으로 VECM 및 VAR모형과 전통적 회귀분석모형에 의한 헤지비율을 추정하고 각 모형의 설명력과 예측력을 비교하고자 한다. 이 연구의 실증분석 결과, KTB 현물가격과 KTB 선물가격간, 블룸버그 국채지수와 KTB 선물가격간에는 공적분 관계가 존재하며, VECM 및 VAR와 전통적 회귀분석모형을 이용하여 추정한 최적헤지비율의 크기는 대동소이(大同小異)하며, 전통적 회귀분석방법을 이용하는 것이 VECM과 VAR모형을 이용할 때 보다 설명력과 예측력이 우월한 것으로 나타났다.