• 한국의류학회지
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• 제48권5호
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• pp.931-955
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• 2024

International trade in the clothing industry has contributed significantly to South Korea's economic development. This study examines the interplay between textile and clothing exports, imports, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth from a macroeconomic perspective using a model with vector autoregressive with exogenous variables (VARX). The findings indicate that GDP growth negatively impacts textile and clothing exports but is positively correlated with imports. Furthermore, GDP growth from one and two years prior negatively affects current exports while positively influencing imports. Macroeconomic indicators, including the consumer price index, private consumption index, and producer price index, significantly impact the textile and clothing trades. By contrast, the won/dollar exchange rate and the Bank of Korea's base interest rate do not appear to exert any substantial effect. An unexpected impulse from GDP growth strongly affects the status of textile and clothing imports. Predictions for the future indicate stable GDP growth over the next five years, with high volatility anticipated in the clothing industry's trade balance. This study applies endogenous growth theory to the global clothing trade, yielding theoretical insights, and offers empirical guidance for government agencies wishing to support domestic clothing trade firms.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.189-201
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• 2022

The study empirically examines the impact of monetary fundamentals along with global oil prices on the Pak-rupee exchange rate using the monthly data over 2001-2020. Employing the cointegrating vector autoregressive with exogenous variables (VARX) and vector error correction model with exogenous variables (VECMX), the study analyzes the impact of domestic monetary fundamentals while considering the foreign variables as weakly exogenous. In order to account for the structural breaks in the data, the Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root test with two structural breaks has been used (Lee & Strazicich, 2003). The empirical results reveal that the domestic and foreign monetary variables significantly explain the exchange rate movements in Pakistan both in the long run and in the short run. The dynamic properties of the monetary model of exchange rate have been analyzed using the persistence profile analysis and generalized impulse response functions (GIRFs). The results reveal that the responses of shocks to domestic monetary fundamentals are consistent with the predictions of the monetary model of the exchange rate. Furthermore, being a net oil importer, a rise in global oil prices significantly depreciated the Pak-rupee exchange rate over the period of study. The global financial crisis (GFC) and pandemic (COVID-19) were also found to cause the Pak-rupee exchange rate depreciation.