• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.480-488
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• 2016

As the subprime mortgage crisis spread globally, it depressed not only the financial market, but also the construction business in Korea. In fact, according to CERIK, the BSI of the construction businesses plunged from 80 points in December 2006 to 14.6 points in November 2008, and the extent of the depression in the housing sector was particularly serious. In this respect, this paper analyzes the influence of the financial market fluctuation on the housing market before and after the Global Financial Crisis using VECM. The periods from January 2000 to December 2007 and January 2008 to October 2015, before and after the financial crisis, were set as Models 1 and 2, respectively. The results are as follows. First, when the economy is good, the Gangnam housing market is an attractive one for investment. However, when it is depressed, the Gangnam housing market changes in response to the macroeconomic fluctuations. Second, the Gangbuk and Gangnam housing markets showed different responses to fluctuations in the financial market. Third, when the economy is bad, the effect of low interest rates is limited, due to the housing market risk.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.5
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• pp.116-124
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• 2016

In the past, once apartments were built by housing construction companies, their presale went smoothly. Therefore, the developer and construction companies in Korea were extremely competitive in the housing market. However, when the 1997 foreign exchange crisis and 2008 global financial crisis occurred, the quantity of unsold new housing stocks rapidly increased, which caused construction companies to experience a serious liquidity crisis. This paper aims at analyzing the influence of Liquidity on the Housing Market before and after Macroeconomic Fluctuations using VECM. The periods from September 2001 to September 2008 and from October 2008 to October 2015, which were before and after the Subprime financial crisis, were set as Models 1 and 2, respectively. The results are as follows. First, it is important to develop a long-term policy for the housing transaction market to improve household incomes. Second, due to the shortage in the supply of jeonse housing, structural changes in the housing market have appeared. Thus, it is necessary to seek political measures to minimize the impact of transitional changes on the market.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.213-237
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• 2007

Discussions on regionalization of the world crude oil markets have provided important implications for the establishment of national energy policies. In particular, due to arbitrage trading, if these markets are regionalized, Korea who imports approximately 80% of the annual oil consumption from a single region may be faced with a crucial problem. Therefore, in this study, we analyzed regionalization of the world crude oil markets using causality analysis as well as cointegration method to consider temporal relationship and time lags. To analyze regionalization, we chose Dubai price for the Middle East market, Brent for the European, WTI for the U.S., and Tapis for the East Asian. For the case that long-run equilibrium existed between market prices, we used vector error correction model to analyze causal relationship, and for the case that equilibrium did not exist, we used Hsiao (1981)'s framework that can consider asymmetric time lags in the model for causality analysis. By the results of cointegration analysis, there did not exist long-run equilibrium among Dubai price and the other prices. However, we found the causal relationship among Dubai price and the other prices with one to four weeks time lags. Therefore, in effect, we could conclude that the world crude oil markets are unified supporting Adelman (1984)'s hypothesis.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.3-11
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• 2013

The changes in construction business have impact on overall operation of construction companies. Poor business of construction companies following a s low industrial cycle could have broader implications and influences on the industry. Since a construction project involves various stakeholders including public organizations, financial institutions and households, a downturn in construction industry might lead to significant economic loss. In this regard, it is meaningful to examine the relationship between changes in construction business cycles and insolvency of construction companies. This study conducts an empirical analysis of the relationship between construction business cycles and how much they affect operation of construction companies. To this end, KMV model was used to estimate probability of bankruptcy, which represents business condition of a construction company. To examine construction business cycles, investment amount for different construction types-residential, non-residential, and construction work-was used as a variable. Based on the investment amount, VECM was applied and the analysis results suggested that construction companies should put priority on diversifying project portfolio. In addition, it was shown that once a construction company becomes unstable in business operation, it is hard to recover even when the market condition turns for the better. This suggests that, to improve business operation of a construction company, internal capacity-building is as important as the market condition and other external circumstances.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.39-48
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• 2016

According to the order receipt report over the past 10 years the overseas construction business total trades were 54.05% and 68.09% done by the Middle East and other industrial facilities respectively. In the Middle East based on data collected in 2014 the country with most overseas construction business is Saudi Arabia with 34.10%, and the industrial facility occupies the larger share with 56%. Overseas construction business is suffering from a reduction in work orders in the Middle East because of the recent oil price reduction. At this point of view, it is necessary to consider economy fluctuation for the diversification of construction type and work orders. This study analyzed, focusing in Saudi Arabia how the economical fluctuations of nations of progress can affect overseas construction business' trade orders. The analysis results demonstrated that most construction types depends on GDP, investment fund. Also industrial facility can be substituted with Architecture and civil engineering. This work is expected to be used as a basis for trade order amount maintenance and construction type diversification.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.440-447
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• 2020

The purpose of this study is to identify the causation and variation among the various types of onion prices in the major production sites to predict these prices. The Granger causal relationship was tested on the basis of VECM by setting the onion price of the early, middle, and late species as individual variables. The analysis shows that the amount of onions produced in the prior term affects the price of onions for the later period, while garlic in the substitution relationship with onions also affects the prices of onions for the early and middle-variety. On the other hand, the price of the late-variety is affected by the price of the early-variety, and the price of the middle-variety is also affected by the price of the early-variety. If the price of onions on Jeju changes due to other factors, the prices of onions in Jeollanam-do and Gyeongsangnam-do provinces will be affected. Accordingly, when the production of late-variety increases or decreases in production under any factor and to promote stability of the prices of middle and late-variety through preemptive supply and demand measures when the prices of ultra-breed onions rise or fall due to any factor (Ed- I cannot understand this last sentence and cannot guess at the correct meaning. Please try to rewrite very simply).

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.531-565
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• 2011

All previous studies analyzing multivariate time series data of EUA (European Union Allowance) price commonly used endogenous variables within the four variables and included the period from April to June of 2006 in the analysis, when the price distortion occurred. This study uses graph theory and structural vector error correction model (SVECM) to analyze the daily time series data of the EUA (European Union Allowance) price. As endogenous variables, five variables are considered for the analysis, including prices of crude oil, natural gas, electricity and coal in addition to carbon price. Data period is Phase 2 period (April 21, 2008 to March 31, 2010) to avoid the EUA price distortion of Phase 1 period (2005~2007). Further, the monthly data including the economic variables as endogenous variables are analyzed.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.15 no.6
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• pp.105-112
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• 2014

The objective of this study is to examine the relationship between the degree of business diversification of a construction company and two of the indicators that represent financial stability, namely, a current ratio and a debt ratio, in order to draw policy implications. The current ratio and the debt ratio were used as variables that represent financial stability of a construction company. Berry-Herfindahl Index was used to measure the degree of business portfolio diversification of a construction company. For the analysis, quarterly time series data were retrieved from the financial information disclosure system of Korea's Financial Supervisory Service for the period between the first quarter of 2001 and the third quarter of 2013. The analysis results showed that a higher current ratio and a debt ratio led to a greater extent of business diversification. A higher level of business diversification led to a higher current ratio and a lower debt ratio. It was also shown that the impact of business diversification on the current ratio and the debt ratio outweighed the impact of changes in the current ratio and the debt ratio on business diversification. Meanwhile, an increase in the level of business diversification showed a quite positive effect as it raised the current ratio and lowered the debt ratio of a construction company. These findings suggest that diversification of business portfolio is essential for construction companies to strengthen their financial stability.

• Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.159-174
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• 2017

The long-term imbalances between supply and demand in office market can weaken urban growth since excessive supply of offices led to office market instability and excessive demand of offices weakens growth of urban industry. Recently, there have been a lot of new large-scale supplies, which increased volatility in Seoul office market. Nevertheless, new supply of Seoul office has not been fully examined. Given this, the focus of this article was on confirming the influences of profitability, replacement cost, and demand on new office supplies in Seoul. In examining those influences, another focus was on their relative influences over time. For these purposes, we analyzed quarterly data of Seoul office market between 2003 and 2015 using a vector error correction model (VECM). As a result, in terms of the influences on the current new supply, the impact of supply before the first quarter was negative, while that of office employment before the first quarter was positive. Also, that of interest rate before the second quarter was positive, while those of cap rate before the first quarter and cap rate before the second quarter were negative. Based on the findings, it is suggested that prediction models on Seoul offices need to be developed considering the influences of profitability, replacement cost, and demand on new office supplies in Seoul.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.1-12
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• 2020

The rapid climate change is strengthening carbon emissions regulations internationally. Korea is strongly pressed to accept the obligation to reduce greenhouse gases as one of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article analyzed the Granger causalities among environmental regulation, economic growth, electricity consumption, and CO₂ emission in Korea, using unit root test, cointegration test, and vector error correction model. As the results, environmental regulation has shown the bidirectional causalities with electricity consumption and CO₂ emission, while being unilaterally affected by economic growth in the long-run and strong relationship. Economic growth has affected electricity consumption, CO2 emission, and environmental regulation in the long-run, in the complex structure of the unilateral and short-run causality with electricity consumption and the bidirectional causality with CO2 emission. The policy implications will be as follows: ① environmental regulation should induce sustainable growth through encouraging technological innovation relating to CO2 reduction and productivity enhancement. ② Responding to the international CO2 reduction regulation, the synthetic policy initiatives will be considered to make synergy effects among policies relating to economic growth, electricity consumption.