• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.18 no.7
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• pp.670-676
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• 2017

The purpose of this study is to analyze the shipbuilding structure of Hallabong Tangorover ten-day and monthly intervals, to determine whether the shipment control can stabilize and increase the income of Hallabong Tangor farmers by estimating and analyzing the price flexibility function of Hallabong, and to derive the policy implication. Looking at the overall market, the 1% increase in shipment volume indicates that the coefficient of price flexibility varies with time. The largest decline is in late December and early January. The dummy variable indicating the year in which the quality drops somewhat is statistically significant from March to May, and the average of them is -0.337%. This implies a greater importance for quality control and shipment control when quality is worse than good quality. The price flexibility, which indicates price changes due to 1% increase in monthly shipment volume of Hallabong Tangor, varies with time. The coefficient of price flexibility was the highest at -0.46 in December, but prices fell slightly due to quality improvement and the increase in special demand of New Year's demand, which was -0.33% in January, -0.261% in February, -0.307% in March, and -0.318% in April. Since then, the amount of storage has been gradually exhausted, and the price flexibility has fallen slightly to -0.243% in May and -0.236% in June. DUM02, which represents the year when more than 7 days after the New Year holidays are in February is from February to June (+). This indicates that the price decrease due to increase in volume is less than that in January when the New Year is in February. This indicates a greater necessity for shipment control when New Year holidays are in January.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.36 no.3 s.104
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• pp.336-343
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• 2003

Two types of statistical models, simple and multivariate log linear models, were studied for continuity simulation and trend analysis of water qualities in incoming flows to Lake Paldang. Water quality is a function of one independent variable (flow) in the simple log linear model, and of three different variables (flow, time, and seasonal cycle) in multivariate model. The independent variables act as surrogate variables of water quality in both models. The model coefficients were determined by the monthly data. The water qualities included 5-day Biochemical Oxygen Demand ($BOD_5$), Total Nitrogen (TN), and Total Phosphorus (TP) measured from 1995 to 2000 in the South and the North branches of Han River and the Kyoungan Stream. The results indicated that the multivariate model provided better agreements with field measurements than the simple one in a31 attempted cases. Flow dependency, seasonality, and temporal trends of water quality were tested on the determined coefficients of the multivariate model. The test of flow dependency indicated that BOD concentrations decreased as the water flow increased. In TN and TP concentrations, however, there were no discernible flow effects. From the temporal trend analyses, the following results were obtained: 1) no trends on BOD at all three upstreams, 2) increase on TN at the South Branch and the Kyoungan Stream, 3)decrease on TN at the North Branch,4) no trends on TP at the North and the South Branches and 5) increase on TP at the Kyoungan Stream by 3 to 8% per years. The seasonality test showed that there were significant seasonal variations in all three water qualities at three incoming flows.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.161-173
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• 2021

The shipping industry plummeted and was depressed due to the global economic crisis caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in the US in 2008. In 2020, the shipping market also suffered from a collapse in the unstable global economic situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but unexpectedly, it changed to an upward trend from the end of 2020, and in 2021, it exceeded the market of the boom period of 2008. According to the Clarksons report published in May 2021, the decrease in cargo volume due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has returned to the pre-corona level by the end of 2020, and the tramper bulk carrier capacity of 103~104% of the Panamax has been in the ports due to congestion. Earnings across the bulker segments have risen to ten-year highs in recent months. In this study, as factors affecting BDI, the capacity and congestion ratio of Cape and Panamax ships on the supply side, iron ore and coal seaborne tonnge on the demand side and Granger causality test, IRF(Impulse Response Function) and FEVD(Forecast Error Variance Decomposition) were performed using VAR model to analyze the impact on BDI by congestion caused by strengthen quarantine at the port due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the loading and discharging operation delay due to the infection of the stevedore, etc and to predict the shipping market after the pandemic. As a result of the Granger causality test of variables and BDI using time series data from January 2016 to July 2021, causality was found in the Fleet and Congestion variables, and as a result of the Impulse Response Function, Congestion variable was found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. As a result of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, Congestion variable showed an explanatory power upto 25% for the change in BDI. If the congestion in ports decreases after With Corona, it is expected that there is down-risk in the shipping market. The COVID-19 pandemic occurred not from economic factors but from an ecological factor by the pandemic is different from the past economic crisis. It is necessary to analyze from a different point of view than the past economic crisis. This study has meaningful to analyze the causality and explanatory power of Congestion factor by pandemic.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.56 no.12
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• pp.993-1003
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• 2023

Due to the increasing greenhouse gas emissions, the global mean temperature has risen by 1.1℃ compared to pre-industrial levels, and significant changes are expected in functioning of water supply systems. In this study, we assessed impacts of climate change and instreamflow management on water supply reliability in the Geum River basin, Korea. We proposed univariate climate response functions, where mean precipitation and potential evaporation were coupled as an explanatory variable, to assess impacts of climate stress on multiple water supply reliabilities. To this end, natural streamflows were generated in the 19 sub-basins with the conceptual GR6J model. Then, the simulated streamflows were input into the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model. The dynamic optimization by WEAP allowed us to assess water supply reliability against the 2020 water demand projections. Results showed that when minimizing the water shortage of the entire river basin under the 1991-2020 climate, water supply reliability was lowest in the Bocheongcheon among the sub-basins. In a scenario where the priority of instreamflow maintenance is adjusted to be the same as municipal and industrial water use, water supply reliability in the Bocheongcheon, Chogang, and Nonsancheon sub-basins significantly decreased. The stress tests with 325 sets of climate perturbations showed that water supply reliability in the three sub-basins considerably decreased under all the climate stresses, while the sub-basins connected to large infrastructures did not change significantly. When using the 2021-2050 climate projections with the stress test results, water supply reliability in the Geum River basin was expected to generally improve, but if the priority of instreamflow maintenance is increased, water shortage is expected to worsen in geographically isolated sub-basins. Here, we suggest that the climate response function can be established by a single explanatory variable to assess climate change impacts of many sub-basin's performance simultaneously.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.67-83
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• 2018

The Korean film industry with significant increase every year exceeded the number of cumulative audiences of 200 million people in 2013 finally. However, starting from 2015 the Korean film industry entered a period of low growth and experienced a negative growth after all in 2016. To overcome such difficulty, stakeholders like production company, distribution company, multiplex have attempted to maximize the market returns using strategies of predicting change of market and of responding to such market change immediately. Since a film is classified as one of experiential products, it is not easy to predict a box office record and the initial number of audiences before the film is released. And also, the number of audiences fluctuates with a variety of factors after the film is released. So, the production company and distribution company try to be guaranteed the number of screens at the opining time of a newly released by multiplex chains. However, the multiplex chains tend to open the screening schedule during only a week and then determine the number of screening of the forthcoming week based on the box office record and the evaluation of audiences. Many previous researches have conducted to deal with the prediction of box office records of films. In the early stage, the researches attempted to identify factors affecting the box office record. And nowadays, many studies have tried to apply various analytic techniques to the factors identified previously in order to improve the accuracy of prediction and to explain the effect of each factor instead of identifying new factors affecting the box office record. However, most of previous researches have limitations in that they used the total number of audiences from the opening to the end as a target variable, and this makes it difficult to predict and respond to the demand of market which changes dynamically. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to predict the weekly number of audiences of a newly released film so that the stakeholder can flexibly and elastically respond to the change of the number of audiences in the film. To that end, we considered the factors used in the previous studies affecting box office and developed new factors not used in previous studies such as the order of opening of movies, dynamics of sales. Along with the comprehensive factors, we used the machine learning method such as Random Forest, Multi Layer Perception, Support Vector Machine, and Naive Bays, to predict the number of cumulative visitors from the first week after a film release to the third week. At the point of the first and the second week, we predicted the cumulative number of visitors of the forthcoming week for a released film. And at the point of the third week, we predict the total number of visitors of the film. In addition, we predicted the total number of cumulative visitors also at the point of the both first week and second week using the same factors. As a result, we found the accuracy of predicting the number of visitors at the forthcoming week was higher than that of predicting the total number of them in all of three weeks, and also the accuracy of the Random Forest was the highest among the machine learning methods we used. This study has implications in that this study 1) considered various factors comprehensively which affect the box office record and merely addressed by other previous researches such as the weekly rating of audiences after release, the weekly rank of the film after release, and the weekly sales share after release, and 2) tried to predict and respond to the demand of market which changes dynamically by suggesting models which predicts the weekly number of audiences of newly released films so that the stakeholders can flexibly and elastically respond to the change of the number of audiences in the film.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.87-109
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• 2020

Currently, thanks to the major stride made in developing wired and wireless communication technology, a variety of IT services are available on land. This trend is leading to an increasing demand for IT services to vessels on the water as well. And it is expected that the request for various IT services such as two-way digital data transmission, Web, APP, etc. is on the rise to the extent that they are available on land. However, while a high-speed information communication network is easily accessible on land because it is based upon a fixed infrastructure like an AP and a base station, it is not the case on the water. As a result, a radio communication network-based voice communication service is usually used at sea. To solve this problem, an additional frequency for digital data exchange was allocated, and a ship ad-hoc network (SANET) was proposed that can be utilized by using this frequency. Instead of satellite communication that costs a lot in installation and usage, SANET was developed to provide various IT services to ships based on IP in the sea. Connectivity between land base stations and ships is important in the SANET. To have this connection, a ship must be a member of the network with its IP address assigned. This paper proposes a SANET-CC protocol that allows ships to be assigned their own IP address. SANET-CC propagates several non-overlapping IP addresses through the entire network from land base stations to ships in the form of the tree. Ships allocate their own IP addresses through the exchange of simple requests and response messages with land base stations or M-ships that can allocate IP addresses. Therefore, SANET-CC can eliminate the IP collision prevention (Duplicate Address Detection) process and the process of network separation or integration caused by the movement of the ship. Various simulations were performed to verify the applicability of this protocol to SANET. The outcome of such simulations shows us the following. First, using SANET-CC, about 91% of the ships in the network were able to receive IP addresses under any circumstances. It is 6% higher than the existing studies. And it suggests that if variables are adjusted to each port's environment, it may show further improved results. Second, this work shows us that it takes all vessels an average of 10 seconds to receive IP addresses regardless of conditions. It represents a 50% decrease in time compared to the average of 20 seconds in the previous study. Also Besides, taking it into account that when existing studies were on 50 to 200 vessels, this study on 100 to 400 vessels, the efficiency can be much higher. Third, existing studies have not been able to derive optimal values according to variables. This is because it does not have a consistent pattern depending on the variable. This means that optimal variables values cannot be set for each port under diverse environments. This paper, however, shows us that the result values from the variables exhibit a consistent pattern. This is significant in that it can be applied to each port by adjusting the variable values. It was also confirmed that regardless of the number of ships, the IP allocation ratio was the most efficient at about 96 percent if the waiting time after the IP request was 75ms, and that the tree structure could maintain a stable network configuration when the number of IPs was over 30000. Fourth, this study can be used to design a network for supporting intelligent maritime control systems and services offshore, instead of satellite communication. And if LTE-M is set up, it is possible to use it for various intelligent services.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.111-125
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• 1990

For the last several years, considerable criticism has been leveled against Korea's exchange rate management. While Korea was designated a currency manipulator by the U.S., domestically it is often complained that the won/dollar rate did not adequately reflect changes in Korea's export competitiveness and fluctuations in the exchange rates of major currencies. In view of this situation, Korea changed its exchange regime at the beginning of March this year from the dual currency basket system to a more flexible one, called a "market average rate regime". Under this new regime, the won rate is determined in the exchange market based upon the supply of and demand for foreign exchange and is allowed to freely fluctuate each day within a + 0.4 % range. This paper, first, seeks to evaluate Korea's exchange rate management under the dual basket regime of the 1980s, and then to construct an optimal currency basket for the won which could provide a proper indicator for exchange market intervention under the new market average rate regime. The analysis of fluctuations in the real effective exchange rate (REER) of the won indicates that the won rates in the 1980s failed not only to offset changes in relative prices between home and trading partner countries, but also to properly respond to variations in major exchange rates as further evidenced by sizable fluctuations in the nominal effective rates of the won. In other words, the currency basket regime which was adopted in 1980 for the stabilization of the REER of the won has not been operated properly, mainly because authorities often resorted to policy considerations in determining the won's rate. In the second part of the paper, an optimal currency basket for Korea is constructed, designed to minimize the fluctuations in the REER of the won without including policy considerations as a factor. It is recognized, however, that both domestic and foreign price data are not available immediately for the calculation of the REER. For this problem, the approach suggested by Lipschitz (1980) is followed, in which optimal weights for currencies in the basket are determined based upon the past correlation between price and exchange rates. When the optimal basket is applied to Korea since the mid-80s, it is found that the REER of the won could have been much more stable than it actually was. We also argue for the use of variable weights rather than fixed ones, which would be determined by the changing relationship between exchange rates and relative prices. The optimal basket, and the optimal basket exchange rate based on that basket, could provide an important medium- or long-term reference for proper exchange market intervention under the market average rate regime, together with other factors, such as developments in the current account balance and changes in productivity.

• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.1-7
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• 2002

This study was performed to investigate the possibility of water purification by a wild train of Oenanthe javanica DC. Three commercially available dishwashing detergents and a standard surfactant, linear alkylbenzene sulfonate (LAS), were used for this study. The experiment was done in 1.5 ι transluscent aquariums. The plants were distributed into various concentrations of detergents and various kinds of detergent in the separate aquariums. The wet weight of the plants was significantly decreased (p<0.05), and the visual vitality of the plants also decreased in 2 days. The higher the concentration of detergent was, and the more time the plants were exposed to the detergents, the more decrease of growth was observed. The pH value of the culture media decreased in 2 days and in 4 days, then slightly increased in 6 days. However, the pH value of the media did not return to the initial neutral level of pH in 6 days. The pH value of the culture media containing the LAS remarkably increased in 6 days and increased to a neutral pH value in 18 days (p<0.01) as the pH of the other culture media. The chemical oxygen demand (COD) of the culture media gradually increased over the 4 days. A decrease of COD was observed in 6 days, but no tendency was observed between 12 and 18 days. The detergent in the culture media was highly significantly decreased in 2 days (p<0.01) and gradually decreased after this. After 6 days the remaining detergent was 12.4∼23.7% from the various levels of initially added concentration, and 22.4 ∼34.2% from the flour kinds of detergents. These results show that the reduction of detergent was caused by Oenanthe javanica and the effect was significant during the first 6 days when the plants were still growing well. These results indicate that the plant purifies contaminated water for several days and the effect could be variable according to the level of contamination and the environment in which the plant grows.

• Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.87-105
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• 2003

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to examine the health care utilization pattern and its related factors of low-income population with abnormal results through health examination. Methods: Analysed data were collected through a questionnaire survey, which was given to 263 persons who 30 years or over with abnormal results through health examination at Health Center. This survey was conducted in March, 2003. This study employed Andersen's prediction model as most well known medical demand mode and data were analysed through 2-test, and multiple logistic regression analysis. Results: The proportion of medical utilization for thorough examination or treatment among study subjects was 51.0%. In multiple logistic regression analysis as dependent variable with medical utilization, the variables affecting the medical utilization were 'feeling about abnormal result(anxiety versus no anxiety: odds ratio 2.25, 95% confidence intervals 1.07-4.75)', 'type of health security(medicaid type I versus health insurance: odds ratio 2.82, 95% confidence intervals 1.04-7.66; medicaid type II versus health insurance: odds ratio 3.22, 95% confidence intervals 1.37-7.53)', 'experience of health examination during past 2 years(odds ratio 2.39, 95% confidence intervals 1.09-5.21)' and 'family member's response for abnormal result(recommendation for medical utilization versus no response: odds ratio 4.90, 95% confidence intervals 1.75-13.75; family member recommended to utilize medical facilities with him/her versus no response: odds ratio 19.47, 95% confidence intervals 5.01-75.73)'. The time of medical utilization was 8-15 days after they received the result(29.9%), 16-30 days after they receive the result(27.6%), 2-7 days after they received the result(20.9%) in order. The most important reason why they didn't take a medical utilization was that it seemed insignificant to them(32.4%). Conclusions: In order to promote medical utilization of low-income population, health education for abnormal result and its management would be necessary to family member as well as person with abnormal result. And follow-up management program for person with abnormal result through health examination such as home-visit health care would be necessary.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.80 no.3
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• pp.257-264
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• 1991

Korea has accomplished the afforestation of its forest land in the early 1980's. To meet the increasing demand for forest products and forest recreation, a development of scientific forest management system is needed as a whole. For this purpose the development of efficient forestfire management system is essential. In this context, the purpose of this study is to develop a theoretical foundation of forestfire danger rating system. In this study, it is hypothesized that the degree of forestfire risk is affected by Weather Factor and Man-Caused Risk Factor. (1) To accommodate the Weather Factor, a statistical model was estimated in which weather variables such as humidity, temperature, precipitation, wind velocity, duration of sunshine were included as independent variables and the probability of forestfire occurrence as dependent variable. (2) To account man-caused risk, historical data of forestfire occurrence was investigated. The contribution of man's activities make to risk was evaluated from three inputs. The first, potential risk class is a semipermanent number which ranks the man-caused fire potential of the individual protection unit relative to that of the other protection units. The second, the risk sources ratio, is that portion of the potential man-caused fire problem which can be charged to a specific cause. The third, daily activity level is that the fire control officer's estimate of how active each of these sources is, For each risk sources, evaluate its daily activity level ; the resulting number is the partial risk factor. Sum up the partial risk factors, one for each source, to get the unnormalized Man-Caused Risk. To make up the Man-Caused Risk, the partial risk factor and the unit's potential risk class were considered together. (3) At last, Fire occurrence index was formed fire danger rating estimation by the Weather Factors and the Man-Caused Risk Index were integrated to form the final Fire Occurrence Index.