• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.2 no.2 s.6
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• pp.68-80
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• 2001

While opportunities for international construction firms have been growing with globalization, the risk of international construction projects is significantly increasing in severity and complexity. However, the traditional risk management approach in the construction industry has maintained a profit focus. In addition, this approach has not considered the overall risk at the corporate level, but rather has focused only on the risk of individuals at the project level. Corporate risk management should be implemented from the initial stages of new project selection. This paper suggests the Multi-criteria Integrated Systematic Analysis as a strategic decision-making tool for international construction contractors. The model integrates the multi-criteria of risk, return, and efficiency to choose the optimal set of new portfolios at the corporate level. This model also introduces the Value at Risk (VaR) concept to the international construction industry to present the total risk at the corporate level. To validate this model, this paper tested an experimental case study using the historical data of a global general contractor.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.14 no.9
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• pp.5455-5459
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• 2013

Background: The risk of malignancy index (RMI) for the evaluation of adnexal masses is a sensitive tool in certain populations. The best cut off value for RMI 1, 2 and 3 is 200. The cut off value of RMI-4 to differentiate benign from malignant lesions is 450. Our aim was to evaluate the efficiency of four different malignancy indexes (RMI1-4) in a homogeneous population. Materials and Methods: We evaluated a total of 153 non-pregnant women with adnexal masses who did not have a history of malignancy and who were above 18 years of age. Results: A cut-off value of 250 for RMI-1 provided 95.9% inter-observer agreement, yielding 95.9% specificity, 93.5% negative predictive value, 75.0% sensitivity and 82.8% positive predictive value. A cut-off value of 250 for RMI-1 showed high performance in preoperative diagnosis of invasive malignant lesions than cut-off value of 200 in our population. A cut-off value of 350 for RMI-2 provided 94.5% inter-observed agreement, yielding 94.2% specificity, 93.4% negative predictive value, 75.0% sensitivity and 77.4% positive predictive value. RMI-2 showed the higher performance when the cut-off value was set at 350 in our population. A cut-off value of 250 provided 95.2% inter-observer agreement, yielding 95.0% specificity, 93.2% negative predictive value, 75.0% sensitivity, and 88.0% positive predictive value. RMI-3 showed the highest performance to diagnose malignant adnexal masses when the cut-off value was set at 250. In our study, RMI-4 showed similar statistical performance when the cut-off value was set at 400 [(Kappa: 0.684/p=0.000), yielding 93.8% inter-observer agreement, 93.4% specificity, 93.4% negative predictive value, 75.0% sensitivity, and 75.0% negative predictive value]. Conclusions: We showed successful utilization of RMIs in preoperative differentiation of benign from malignant masses. Many studies conducted in Asian and Pacific countries have reported different cut-off values as was the case in our study. We think that it is difficult to determine universally accepted cut-off values for RMIs for common use around the globe.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.219-234
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• 2010

In index investing according to KOSPI, we estimate Value at Risk(VaR) from the extreme losses of the daily returns which are obtained from KOSPI. To this end, we apply Block Maxima(BM) model which is one of the useful models in the extreme value theory. We also estimate the extremal index to consider the dependency in the occurrence of extreme losses. From the back-testing based on the failure rate method, we can see that the model is adaptable for the VaR estimation. We also compare this model with the GARCH model which is commonly used for the VaR estimation. Back-testing says that there is no meaningful difference between the two models if we assume that the conditional returns follow the t-distribution. However, the estimated VaR based on GARCH model is sensitive to the extreme losses occurred near the epoch of estimation, while that on BM model is not. Thus, estimating the VaR based on GARCH model is preferred for the short-term prediction. However, for the long-term prediction, BM model is better.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.345-349
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• 2015

Background: To determine the cut-off values of the preoperative risk of malignancy index (RMI) used in differentiating benign or malignant adnexal masses and to determine their significance in differential diagnosis by comparison of different systems. Materials and Methods: 191 operated women were assessed retrospectively. RMI of 1, 2, 3 and 4; cut-off values for an effective benign or malignant differentiation together with sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values were calculated. Results: Cut-off value for RMI 1 was found to be 250; there was significant (p<0.001) compatibility at this level with sensitivity of 60%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 75%, specificity of 93%, negative predictive value (NPV) of 88% and an overall compliance rate of 85%. When RMI 2 and 3 was obtained with a cut-off value of 200, there was significant (p<0.001) compatibility at this level for RMI 2 with sensitivity of 67%, PPV of 67%, specificity of 89%, NPV of 89%, histopathologic correlation of 84% while RMI 3 had significant (p<0.001) compatibility at the same level with sensitivity of 63%, PPV of 69%, specificity of 91%, NPV of 88% and a histopathologic correlation of 84%. Significant (p<0.001) compatibility for RMI 4 with a sensitivity of 67%, PPV of 73%, specificity of 92%, NPV of 89% and a histopathologic correlation of 86% was obtained at the cut-off level 400. Conclusions: RMI have a significant predictability in differentiating benign and malignant adnexal masses, thus can effectively be used in clinical practice.

• Journal of Korean Public Health Nursing
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.495-508
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• 2014

Purpose: This study was conducted in order to evaluate the reliability, validity, sensitivity, and specificity of the Short Form of Bobath Memorial Hospital Fall Risk Assessment Scale (BMFRAS-SF). Methods: A validation study was conducted on 207 elderly patients aged over 65 who were admitted to Bobath Memorial Hospital. Fall risk scores of BMFRAS, composed of eight subscales (age, fall history, physical activity, consciousness level, communication, fall risk factors, underlying disease, and medications) were assessed from the electronic medical record. BMFRAS-SF was derived from eight subscales of the BMFRAS representing the significance between fallers and non-fallers (fall history, physical activity, fall risk factors, underlying disease, and medications). Internal consistency reliability and interrater reliability were assessed by Cronbach's alpha and kappa coefficient. Validity was assessed by Spearman correlation analysis, factor analysis. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive and negative predictive values, and a receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC) were generated. Results: Fallers had significantly higher risk scores than non-fallers in fall history, physical activity, fall risk factors, underlying disease, and medication scales. The BMFRAS-SF demonstrated acceptable Cronbach's alpha (.706) and kappa coefficients of .95. The BMFRAS-SF subscales showed good convergent validity and construct validity. The BMFRAS-SF presented good sensitivity(86.7%), specificity(67.9%), positive predictive value(42.9%) and good negative predictive value(94.8%) at a cut-off score of 5. Areas under the ROC curves were .860 for the BMFRAS and .861 for the BMFRAS-SF. Conclusion: The BMFRAS-SF was proved to be reliable and valid. It could be used for time-saving assessment and evaluation of the high risks for falls in clinical practice settings.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.10 no.1 s.30
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• pp.1-6
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• 2006

To use pressurized facilities safely and effectively, a likelihood of failure (LOF) for the brittle fracture was analyzed quantitatively through the risk based inspection using API-581 BRD. We found that for the case of the low temperature/low toughness and the temper embrittlement, the technical module subfactor (TMSF) showed high value for the A impact curve, low temperature, and the no post weld heat treatment. But the risk didn't significantly change at the $855^{\circ}F$ embrittlement, and the LOF far the sigma phase embrittlement showed high value at low temperature of the high sigma.

• Membrane and Water Treatment
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.137-147
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• 2017

A water treatment utility in South Korea operates a large system of pressurized hollow fiber membrane (PHFM) modules. The optimal selection of membrane module for the full scale plant was critical issue and carried out using Risk-based Life Cycle Cost (RbLCC) analysis based on the historical data of operation and maintenance. The RbLCC analysis was used in the process of decision-making for replacing aged modules. The initial purchasing cost and the value at risk during operation were considered together. The failure of modules occurs stochastically depending on the physical deterioration with usage over time. The life span of module was used as a factor for the failure of Poisson's probability model, which was used to obtain the probability of failure during the operation. The RbLCC was calculated by combining the initial cost and the value at risk without its warranty term. Additionally, the properties of membrane were considered to select the optimum product. Results showed that the module's life span in the system was ten years (120 month) with safety factor. The optimum product was selected from six candidates membrane for a full scale water treatment facility. This method could be used to make the optimum and rational decision for the operation of membrane water purification facility.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.15 no.7
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• pp.2589-2609
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• 2021

Segment routing (SR) is a highly implementable approach for traffic engineering (TE) with high flexibility, high scalability, and high stability, which can be established upon existing network infrastructure. Thus, when a network failure occurs, it can leverage the existing rerouting methods, such as rerouting based on Interior Gateway Protocol (IGP) and fast rerouting with loop-free alternates. To better exploit these features, we propose a high-performance and easy-to-deploy method SRUF (Segment Routing under Uncertain Failures). The method is inspired by the Value-at-Risk (VaR) theory in finance. Just as each investment risk is considered in financial investment, SRUF also considers each traffic distribution scheme's risk when forwarding traffic to achieve optimal traffic distribution. Specifically, SRUF takes into account that every link may fail and therefore has inherent robustness and high availability. Also, SRUF considers that a single link failure is a low-probability event; hence it can achieve high performance. We perform experiments on real topologies to validate the flexibility, high-availability, and load balancing of SRUF. The results show that when given an availability requirement, SRUF has greater load balancing performance under uncertain failures and that when given a demand requirement, SRUF can achieve higher availability.

• Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.431-439
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• 2018

Less mature nuclear reactor technologies are characterized by a greater uncertainty due to insufficient detailed design information, operational data, cost information, etc., but the expected performance characteristics of less mature options are usually more attractive in comparison with more mature ones. The greater uncertainty is, the higher economic risks associated with the project realization will be. Within a comparative evaluation of less and more mature nuclear reactor technologies, it is necessary to apply economic risk measures to balance judgments regarding the economic performance of less and more mature options. Assessments of any risk metrics involve calculating different characteristics of probability distributions of associated economic performance indicators and applying the Monte-Carlo method. This paper considers the applicability of statistical risk measures for different economic performance indicators within a trial case study on a comparative evaluation of less and more mature unspecified LWRs. The presented case study demonstrates the main trends associated with the incorporation of economic risk metrics into a comparative evaluation of less and more mature nuclear reactor technologies.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.19 no.4 s.68
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• pp.60-68
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• 2004

Consequence analysis of flammable materials that affect to a risk of facilities was studied at the risk based inspection using API-581. We found that consequence areas (damage area of equipment and fatality area) by release accident of flammable materials showed high value for the case of liquid phase and auto-ignition likely, and that consequence areas of flammable gases decreased as temperature increased and the pipe diameter and pressure decreased at continuous release.