• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.493-517
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• 2012

This paper analyzes a price discovery process for gasoline among branded and independent stations in Korea using a vector error correction model (VECM) and directed acyclic graphs (DAG). Two data sets for daily prices of medium level gasoline running from April 15, 2008 to May 31, 2009 and from January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2011 are used for empirical analysis. Empirical results show that S-OIL has an exogeneity and played a important role in the flow of price information in the market in the first period. In the second period, SK energy played a key role in price discovery process in the market. The price of NH-OIL stations do not cause the price of any other stations, which implies that the entrance of new branded stations with lower gasoline price to market has no influence on gasoline prices of retail markets.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.5 no.3
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• pp.7-17
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• 2018

This paper examines short-run and long-run dynamic relationships between selected macroeconomic variables and stock prices in the Korea Stock Exchange. The data is restricted to the period for which monthly data are available from January 1986 to October 2016 (370 observations) retrieved from the Economic Statistics System database sponsored by the Bank of Korea. The study employs unit root test, cointegration test, vector error correction estimates, impulse response test, and structural break test. The results of the Johansen cointegration test indicate at least three cointegrating equations exist at the 0.05 level in the model, confirming that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic variables in Korea. The results of vector error correction model (VECM) estimates indicate that money supply and short-term interest rate are not related to stock prices in the short-run. However, exchange rate is positively related to stock prices while the industrial production index and inflation are negatively related to stock prices in the short-run. Furthermore, the VECM estimates indicate that the external shock, such as regional and global financial crisis shocks, neither affects changes in the endogenous variables nor causes instability in the cointegrating vector. This study finds that the endogenous variables are determined by their own dynamics in the model.

• THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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• v.75
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• pp.95-116
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• 2017

The global financial crisis has slowed overall growth in the global economy. In addition, uncertainty is increasing in the world economy due to the Trade protectionism, sluggish world trade, and a rise in the rate of interest caused by expansion of fiscal spending by major countries. In this study, we analyzed various factors affecting the container import and export volume, which has a high correlation with export and import of commodities in international trade. In particular, we will examine how exchange rate fluctuations and domestic and overseas economic conditions affect container imports and exports. For the empirical analysis, monthly time series data were used from January 2000 to January 2017. We use the Error Correction Model (VECM) for the empirical analysis and the GARCH model for the exchange rate fluctuation. As a result, container export and import volume had a negative relationship with exchange rate and exchange rate volatility, which had a positive effect on domestic and international economic conditions. However, the effects are different before and after the financial crisis.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.13-26
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• 2008

We investigate the effect of government and public sector R&D Investment at IT Industry on the amount of Production, export and nongovernment R&D Investment at IT Industry. We, firstly, examine the stationarity of each variable by the unit root t-test and perform the co-integration test for the pairs of variables. We use YECM(Vector Error Correction Model) according to the results of co-integration test for the examination of Granger-causality between variables. It is found that there exist an Granger-causality between public sector R&D Investment and nongovernment R&D investment and also between public sector R&D Investment and export. Secondly, we analyze the impulse response of government and public sector R&D Investment at IT Industry on the amount of production, export and nongovernment R&D investment at IT Industry based on VECM model. It is found that the response of the amount of production is highest at 3th period and is lowest at 8th period and that of export shows similar pattern.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.8
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• pp.41-49
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• 2020

This study investigates the short-run and long-run causal behavior of the Philippine stock market index volatility under vector error correction environment. The variables were tested first for stationarity and then long-run equilibrium relationship. Moreover, an impulse response function was estimated to examine the extent of innovations in the independent variables in explaining the Philippine stock market index volatility. The results reveal that the volatility of the Philippine stock market index exhibit long-run equilibrium relationship with Peso-Dollar exchange rate, London Interbank Offered Rate, and crude oil prices. The short-run dynamics-based VECM estimates indicate that in the short-run, increases (i.e., depreciation) in Peso-Dollar exchange rate cause PSEI volatility to increase. As for the London Interbank Offered Rate, it causes increases in PSEI volatility in the short-run. The adjustment coefficients used with the long-run dynamics validates the presence of unidirectional causal long-run relationship from Peso-Dollar exchange rate, London Interbank Offered Rate, and crude oil prices to PSEI volatility, and bidirectional causal long-run relationship between PSEI volatility and London Interbank Offered Rate. The impulse response functions developed within the VECM framework demonstrate the positive and negative reactions of PSEI volatility to unanticipated Peso-Dollar exchange rate, London Interbank Offered Rate, and crude oil price shocks.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.11
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• pp.13-22
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• 2020

This research explores the appropriate rubber pricing model and the consistent empirical evidence. This model has been derived from the utility function and firm profit-maximization model of commodity goods. The finding shows that the period t - 1 affects expected commodity price and expected profit of commodity production. In fact, a change in the world price of rubber in the past period led to a change in the expected price of rubber in the short run which influenced the expected rubber profit. As a result, the past-period free on board price has an entirety effect on expected farm price of rubber given an exchange rate. In addition, the rubber pricing model indicates that the profit of local farmer on rubber plant depends solely on the world price of rubber in the short run in case of Thailand. In an empirical study, it was found that a change in the price of ribbed smoke sheet 3 in Singapore Commodity Exchange significantly and positively determined the fluctuation of rubber price at the farm gate in Thailand which was consistent with the behavior of the Thai farmers. Both prices are also cointegrated in the long run. That is, the result states that the VECM is an appropriated pricing model for forecasting the farm price in Thailand.

• Asia Pacific Journal of Business Review
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• v.1 no.2
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• pp.1-16
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• 2017

The fundamental goal of the research was to verify if the Twin Deficits Hypothesis holds for the economy of Zambia using time series data from 1980-2014. The current account and budget deficit were employed as key variables. The exchange rate was also used as a transmission mechanism to see how it contributes in the nexus. Cointegration tests confirmed a long run association of the variables. After fitting the VECM model, Granger causality tests confirmed the existence of twin deficits for Zambia. The results supported uni-directional reverse causality. The exchange rate was shown to be more significant in the long run than in the short run. The implosion of the time series as shown by the predicted cointegration equation implies that unless drastic measures are taken to cure the deficits, using the current account as the major target variable, twin deficits will persist for some time. The major policy implication of this research is that given that Zambia is a primary commodity-dependent developing country subsisting largely on copper revenues to sustain the economy, there is a need to move away from "copper addiction," given the recent volatility of earnings of primary commodities (e.g. through diversification of the economy, import substitution, and other strategies).

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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• v.28 no.7
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• pp.97-105
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• 2014

This article examines the causality relationship among SMP, base-load share, LNG import price, and exchange rate in Korean power market during 2002~2012, using unit root test, cointegration test, and vector error correction model(VECM). The cointegration test shows that 4 variables without unit root have been in the long-run causality. As the results of ECM, SMP is analyzed to have been unilaterally caused from LNG import price and base-load share in the shot-run, while it has been unilaterally caused from LNG import price and exchange rate in the long-run. This article has the following policy implications: the adjustment of exchange rate to reduce he risk of LNG import price and the proper securement of base-load share for the long-run stability of SMP.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.111-122
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• 2021

The main purpose of the present research is to analyze the effects of trade, financial globalization, and technological progress on income inequality in the Indian economy over the period from 1982 to 2018. For this purpose, the study uses economic growth, financial globalization, trade openness, technological development, and economic inequality variables with appropriate proxies. The study employs the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration and VECM based Granger causality approach to estimate both the short-run and long-run relationship and causality among variables. Using the ARDL bounds test, the study finds a long-run co-integrating relationship existing among the variables in the model. The study confirms the existence of a positive and significant impact of technological progress on income inequality. Further, globalization's limited impact reflects two offsetting tendencies; trade globalization is associated with a reduction in income inequality, while financial globalization is related to an increase in inequality. The results of VECM based Granger causality approach further confirm that technological progress, trade, and financial globalization causes income inequality both directly and indirectly through economic growth and inflation. In case of India, the results of this research can significantly facilitate stakeholders and policymakers in devising policies towards effective globalization and technological innovation for inclusive growth.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.10
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• pp.15-27
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• 2022

Recently, as carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions have increased overall and contributed to air pollution, and awareness of environmental degradation has grown. This study examines the impacts and causalities of economic globalization, economic growth, energy consumption, and capital formation on CO₂ emissions in China over the period 1971-2014. The vector error correction model (VECM) and Granger causality test on time-series data are employed to observe the interactions between CO₂ emission, economic globalization, and various economic factors, including economic growth, energy consumption, and capital formation, since China's early stage of globalization. The empirical results indicate the existence of bidirectional causalities from economic growth, gross capital formation, economic globalization, and CO₂ emission to energy consumption, and bidirectional casualty from energy consumption to CO₂ emission relationships in the short run. The findings of this study suggest that indirect bidirectional causalities from economic growth, economic globalization, and capital formation to CO₂ emission through energy consumption are observed. Moreover, economic globalization accelerates CO₂ emission in the short run but decreases it in the long run. To reduce CO₂ emissions, and to ensure sustainable economic growth and economic globalization progress, some crucial energy-saving and energy-efficiency policies, regulatory rules, and laws are recommended.