• Title/Summary/Keyword: VARX 시계열

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Predicting the Interconnection between Trade Balance and Economic Growth in the Textile and Clothing Industry -A VARX Model Approach- (의류산업 무역수지와 경제성장의 상호연관성 및 예측 연구 -VARX 시계열 모형을 활용하여-)

  • Hyojung Kim
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.48 no.5
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    • pp.931-955
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    • 2024
  • International trade in the clothing industry has contributed significantly to South Korea's economic development. This study examines the interplay between textile and clothing exports, imports, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth from a macroeconomic perspective using a model with vector autoregressive with exogenous variables (VARX). The findings indicate that GDP growth negatively impacts textile and clothing exports but is positively correlated with imports. Furthermore, GDP growth from one and two years prior negatively affects current exports while positively influencing imports. Macroeconomic indicators, including the consumer price index, private consumption index, and producer price index, significantly impact the textile and clothing trades. By contrast, the won/dollar exchange rate and the Bank of Korea's base interest rate do not appear to exert any substantial effect. An unexpected impulse from GDP growth strongly affects the status of textile and clothing imports. Predictions for the future indicate stable GDP growth over the next five years, with high volatility anticipated in the clothing industry's trade balance. This study applies endogenous growth theory to the global clothing trade, yielding theoretical insights, and offers empirical guidance for government agencies wishing to support domestic clothing trade firms.

The Relationship between Social Media and Consumer Purchase Decision: Findings from Seoul Sharing Bike (소셜미디어와 소비자 구매 결정과의 관계: 서울 공유 자전거에 대한 시계열 분석을 중심으로)

  • Han, Suhyeon;Jang, Junghwa;Choi, Jeonghye;Chang, Sue Ryung
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.135-155
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    • 2021
  • With the emergence of various types of social media and the diversification of their roles, it has become essential for marketers to understand how different types of social media influence consumers' purchase decisions differently and derive more detailed strategies by social media types. This study classifies social media into two types-expression-focused social media and relationship-focused social media-and investigates the relationship between consumer purchases and social media mentions by type. Using the Seoul bike-sharing data and time-series data for social media mentions, we apply the VAR model with Exogenous Variables (VARX). We find that the increase of product mentions in expression-focused social media positively affects both the number of new customers (customer acquisition) and the number of shared bike rentals, while that in relationship-focused social media negatively affects the number of new customers only. In addition, as new customers increase, the product mentions in both types of social media increase. On the other hand, the number of bike rentals has no significant effect in increasing social media mentions regardless of type. This study contributes to the social media and sharing economy literature and provides managerial implications for establishing sophisticated social media marketing in bike-sharing businesses.