• Title/Summary/Keyword: VARFIMA

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Bivariate long range dependent time series forecasting using deep learning (딥러닝을 이용한 이변량 장기종속시계열 예측)

  • Kim, Jiyoung;Baek, Changryong
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.69-81
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    • 2019
  • We consider bivariate long range dependent (LRD) time series forecasting using a deep learning method. A long short-term memory (LSTM) network well-suited to time series data is applied to forecast bivariate time series; in addition, we compare the forecasting performance with bivariate fractional autoregressive integrated moving average (FARIMA) models. Out-of-sample forecasting errors are compared with various performance measures for functional MRI (fMRI) data and daily realized volatility data. The results show a subtle difference in the predicted values of the FIVARMA model and VARFIMA model. LSTM is computationally demanding due to hyper-parameter selection, but is more stable and the forecasting performance is competitively good to that of parametric long range dependent time series models.