• Title/Summary/Keyword: Usability analysis

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Estimate Customer Churn Rate with the Review-Feedback Process: Empirical Study with Text Mining, Econometrics, and Quai-Experiment Methodologies (리뷰-피드백 프로세스를 통한 고객 이탈률 추정: 텍스트 마이닝, 계량경제학, 준실험설계 방법론을 활용한 실증적 연구)

  • Choi Kim;Jaemin Kim;Gahyung Jeong;Jaehong Park
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.159-176
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    • 2021
  • Obviating user churn is a prominent strategy to capitalize on online games, eluding the initial investments required for the development of another. Extant literature has examined factors that may induce user churn, mainly from perspectives of motives to play and game as a virtual society. However, such works largely dismiss the service aspects of online games. Dissatisfaction of user needs constitutes a crucial aspect for user churn, especially with online services where users expect a continuous improvement in service quality via software updates. Hence, we examine the relationship between a game's quality management and its user base. With text mining and survival analysis, we identify complaint factors that act as key predictors of user churn. Additionally, we find that enjoyment-related factors are greater threats to user base than usability-related ones. Furthermore, subsequent quasi-experiment shows that improvements in the complaint factors (i.e., via game patches) curb churn and foster user retention. Our results shed light on the responsive role of developers in retaining the user base of online games. Moreover, we provide practical insights for game operators, i.e., to identify and prioritize more perilous complaint factors in planning successive game patches.

Development of LINC 3.0 Self-Evaluation Indicators Based on CIPP Evaluation Model - Focusing on the Case of K University - (CIPP모형에 기반한 LINC 3.0 자체평가지표 개발 -K대학 기술혁신선도형 사례 중심으로-)

  • Jinyoung Kwak;Hyeree Min;Mija Shim;Youngeun Wee;Jiyoung Kim
    • Journal of Practical Engineering Education
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    • v.16 no.3_spc
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    • pp.309-325
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    • 2024
  • The purpose of this study was to develop self-evaluation criteria for objective verification and performance analysis of LINC 3.0. To achieve this goal, evaluation indicators in the fields of human resources development and skill development and commercialization were developed and their validity was verified. We investigated previous evaluation-related studies and similar cases to construct an evaluation model and system and develop indicators. The validity of the developed evaluation indicators was secured through two round Delphi surveys. As a result of the research, LINC 3.0 evaluation indicators can be divided into the field of human resources development and skill development and commercialization. A total of 66 evaluation indicators were developed. CIPP in the field of human resources development was developed with 13 categories and 38 evaluation indicators, and CIPP in the field of skill development and commercialization was developed with 12 categories and 28 evaluation indicators. The significance of this study is that it suggests a way to increase the objective verification and validity of the university industry-academia cooperation model by developing self-evaluation indicators for the LINC 3.0 project. The evaluation indicators developed in the research need to be continuously upgraded based on field usability, and it is necessary to improve the quality and competitiveness of university education by sharing and spreading excellent affairs.

Study on the Proposal for Deposit Linkage Plan Based on the Survey of Online Material Identification System (온라인 자료 식별체계 실태조사를 기반으로 한 납본연계방안 제안 연구)

  • Younghee Noh;Aekyoung Son;Kyung Sun Lee;Inho Chang;Youngmi Jung;Hyunju Cha
    • Journal of the Korean Society for information Management
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.133-162
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    • 2024
  • The rapid digitalization has highlighted the importance of identifying and managing online resources. Especially, the need for a systematic identification system for the efficient distribution and preservation of digital content is growing. This study aims to respond to these contemporary demands by investigating the current state of identification systems for online resources and exploring more systematic management and utilization methods through linking these systems with legal deposit. To achieve this, the study surveyed the identification systems and their issuance status for online resources and analyzed prior research related to these online resources. Based on the analysis, the proposed strategies for linking with legal deposit can be summarized into three categories: First, to prioritize and enhance the utilization of legal deposit, strategies are required to strengthen the mutual complementarity of deposit and use, to assign priorities to certain deposits, and to increase the usability of deposited materials. Second, as strategies based on international standard numbers for linking with legal deposit, it is necessary to integrate ISBN and UCI in the deposit process, to link international standard resource numbers with deposit, to interconnect metadata between international standard numbers and UCI, to integrate UCI and ICN, and to introduce automation technology for upgrading the deposit system. Third, to effectively implement the aforementioned strategies, policy support is essential. This includes enhancing the role of the Korean Bibliographic Standards Center, strengthening cooperation with publishers, compensating for deposited materials, and increasing awareness and institutional compensation for the legal deposit system.

Development of an intelligent IIoT platform for stable data collection (안정적 데이터 수집을 위한 지능형 IIoT 플랫폼 개발)

  • Woojin Cho;Hyungah Lee;Dongju Kim;Jae-hoi Gu
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.687-692
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    • 2024
  • The energy crisis is emerging as a serious problem around the world. In the case of Korea, there is great interest in energy efficiency research related to industrial complexes, which use more than 53% of total energy and account for more than 45% of greenhouse gas emissions in Korea. One of the studies is a study on saving energy through sharing facilities between factories using the same utility in an industrial complex called a virtual energy network plant and through transactions between energy producing and demand factories. In such energy-saving research, data collection is very important because there are various uses for data, such as analysis and prediction. However, existing systems had several shortcomings in reliably collecting time series data. In this study, we propose an intelligent IIoT platform to improve it. The intelligent IIoT platform includes a preprocessing system to identify abnormal data and process it in a timely manner, classifies abnormal and missing data, and presents interpolation techniques to maintain stable time series data. Additionally, time series data collection is streamlined through database optimization. This paper contributes to increasing data usability in the industrial environment through stable data collection and rapid problem response, and contributes to reducing the burden of data collection and optimizing monitoring load by introducing a variety of chatbot notification systems.

Case Study on the Enterprise Microblog Usage: Focusing on Knowledge Management Strategy (기업용 마이크로블로그의 사용행태에 대한 사례연구: 지식경영전략을 중심으로)

  • Kang, Min Su;Park, Arum;Lee, Kyoung-Jun
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.47-63
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    • 2015
  • As knowledge is paid attention as a new production factor that generates added value, studies continue to apply knowledge management to business environment. In addition, as ICT (Information Communication Technology) was engrafted in business environment, it leads to increasing task efficiency and productivity of individual workers. Accordingly, the way that a business achieves its goal has changed to one in which its individual members are willing to take part in the organization and share information to create new values (Han, 2003) and studies for the system and service to support such transition are carrying out. Of late, a new concept called 'Enterprise 2.0' newly appears. It is the extension of Wen 2.0 and its technology, which focus on participation, sharing and openness, to the work environment of a business (Jung, 2013). Enterprise 2.0 is being used as a collaborative tool to prop up individual creativity and group brain power by combining Web 2.0 technologies such as blog, Wiki, RSS and tag with business software (McAfee, 2006). As Tweeter gets popular, Enterprise Microblog (EMB), which is an example of Enterprise 2.0 for business, has been developed as equivalent to Tweeter in business circle and SaaS (Software as a Service) such as Yammer was introduced The studies of EMB mainly focus on demonstrating its usability in terms of intra-firm communication and knowledge management. However existing studies lean too much towards large-sized companies and certain departments, rather than a company as a whole. Therefore, few studies have been conducted on small and medium-sized companies that have difficulty preparing separate resources and supplying exclusive workforce to introduce knowledge management. In this respect, the present study placed its analytic focus on small-sized companies actually equipped with EMB to know how they use it. And, based on the findings, this study examined their knowledge management strategies for EMB from the point of codification and personalization. Hypothesis -"as a company grows, it shifts EMB strategy from codification to personalization'- was established on the basis of reviewing precedent studies and literature. To demonstrate the hypothesis, this study analyzed the usage of EMB by small companies that have used it from foundation. For case study, the duration of the use was divided into 2 spans and longitudinal analysis was employed to examine the contents of the blogs. Using the key findings of the analysis, this study is aimed to propose practical implications for the operation of knowledge management of small-sized company and the suitable application of knowledge management system for operation Knowledge Management Strategy can be classified by codification strategy and personalization strategy (Hansen et. al., 1999), and how to manage the two strategies were always studied. Also, current studies regarding the knowledge management strategy were targeted mostly for major companies, resulting in lack of studies in how it can be applied on SMEs. This research, with the knowledge management strategy suited for SMEs, sets an Enterprise Microblog (EMB), and with the EMB applied on SMEs' Knowledge Management Strategy, it is reviewed on the perspective of SMEs' Codification and Personalization Strategies. Through the advanced research regarding Knowledge Management Strategy and EMB, the hypothesis is set that "Depending on the development of the company, the main application of EMB alters from Codification Strategy to Personalization Strategy". To check the hypothesis, SME that have used the EMB called 'Yammer' was analyzed from the date of their foundation until today. The case study has implemented longitudinal analysis which divides the period when the EMBs were used into three stages and analyzes the contents. As the result of the study, this suggests a substantial implication regarding the application of Knowledge Management Strategy and its Knowledge Management System that is suitable for SME.

Betweenness Centrality-based Evacuation Vulnerability Analysis for Subway Stations: Case Study on Gwanggyo Central Station (매개 중심성 기반 지하철 역사 재난 대피 취약성 분석: 광교중앙역 사례연구)

  • Jeong, Ji Won;Ahn, Seungjun;Yoo, Min-Taek
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.407-416
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    • 2024
  • Over the past 20 years, there has been a rapid increase in the number and size of subway stations and underground structures worldwide, and the importance of safety for subway users has also continuously grown. Subway stations, due to their structural characteristics, have limited visibility and escape routes in disaster situations, posing a high risk of human casualties and economic losses. Therefore, an analysis of disaster vulnerabilities is essential not only for existing subway systems but also for deep underground facilities like GTX. This paper presents a case study applying a betweenness centrality-based disaster vulnerability analysis framework to the case of Gwanggyo Central Station. The analysis of Gwanggyo Central Station's base model and various disaster scenarios revealed that the betweenness centrality distribution is symmetrical, following the symmetrical spatial structure of the station, with high centrality concentrated in the central areas of basement levels one and two. These areas exhibited values more than 220% above the average, indicating a high likelihood of bottleneck phenomena during evacuation in disaster situations. To mitigate this vulnerability, scenarios were proposed to distribute evacuation flows concentrated in the central areas, enhancing the usability of peripheral areas as evacuation routes by connecting staircases continuously. This modification, when considered, showed a decrease in centrality concentration, confirming that the proposed addition of evacuation paths could effectively contribute to dispersing the flow of evacuation in Gwanggyo Central Station. This case study demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed framework for assessing evacuation vulnerability in enhancing subway station user safety and can be effectively applied in disaster response and management plans for major underground facilities.

The Effects of Online Service Quality on Consumer Satisfaction and Loyalty Intention -About Booking and Issuing Air Tickets on Website- (온라인 서비스 품질이 고객만족 및 충성의도에 미치는 영향 -항공권 예약.발권 웹사이트를 중심으로-)

  • Park, Jong-Gee;Ko, Do-Eun;Lee, Seung-Chang
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.71-110
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    • 2010
  • 1. Introduction Today Internet is recognized as an important way for the transaction of products and services. According to the data surveyed by the National Statistical Office, the on-line transaction in 2007 for a year, 15.7656 trillion, shows a 17.1%(2.3060 trillion won) increase over last year, of these, the amount of B2C has been increased 12.0%(10.2258 trillion won). Like this, because the entry barrier of on-line market of Korea is low, many retailers could easily enter into the market. So the bigger its scale is, but on the other hand, the tougher its competition is. Particularly due to the Internet and innovation of IT, the existing market has been changed into the perfect competitive market(Srinivasan, Rolph & Kishore, 2002). In the early years of on-line business, they think that the main reason for success is a moderate price, they are awakened to its importance of on-line service quality with tough competition. If it's not sure whether customers can be provided with what they want, they can use the Web sites, perhaps they can trust their products that had been already bought or not, they have a doubt its viability(Parasuraman, Zeithaml & Malhotra, 2005). Customers can directly reserve and issue their air tickets irrespective of place and time at the Web sites of travel agencies or airlines, but its empirical studies about these Web sites for reserving and issuing air tickets are insufficient. Therefore this study goes on for following specific objects. First object is to measure service quality and service recovery of Web sites for reserving and issuing air tickets. Second is to look into whether above on-line service quality and on-line service recovery have an impact on overall service quality. Third is to seek for the relation with overall service quality and customer satisfaction, then this customer satisfaction and loyalty intention. 2. Theoretical Background 2.1 On-line Service Quality Barnes & Vidgen(2000; 2001a; 2001b; 2002) had invented the tool to measure Web sites' quality four times(called WebQual). The WebQual 1.0, Step one invented a measuring item for information quality based on QFD, and this had been verified by students of UK business school. The Web Qual 2.0, Step two invented for interaction quality, and had been judged by customers of on-line bookshop. The WebQual 3.0, Step three invented by consolidating the WebQual 1.0 for information quality and the WebQual2.0 for interactionquality. It includes 3-quality-dimension, information quality, interaction quality, site design, and had been assessed and confirmed by auction sites(e-bay, Amazon, QXL). Furtheron, through the former empirical studies, the authors changed sites quality into usability by judging that usability is a concept how customers interact with or perceive Web sites and It is used widely for accessing Web sites. By this process, WebQual 4.0 was invented, and is consist of 3-quality-dimension; information quality, interaction quality, usability, 22 items. However, because WebQual 4.0 is focusing on technical part, it's usable at the Website's design part, on the other hand, it's not usable at the Web site's pleasant experience part. Parasuraman, Zeithaml & Malhorta(2002; 2005) had invented the measure for measuring on-line service quality in 2002 and 2005. The study in 2002 divided on-line service quality into 5 dimensions. But these were not well-organized, so there needed to be studied again totally. So Parasuraman, Zeithaml & Malhorta(2005) re-worked out the study about on-line service quality measure base on 2002's study and invented E-S-QUAL. After they invented preliminary measure for on-line service quality, they made up a question for customers who had purchased at amazon.com and walmart.com and reassessed this measure. And they perfected an invention of E-S-QUAL consists of 4 dimensions, 22 items of efficiency, system availability, fulfillment, privacy. Efficiency measures assess to sites and usability and others, system availability measures accurate technical function of sites and others, fulfillment measures promptness of delivering products and sufficient goods and others and privacy measures the degree of protection of data about their customers and so on. 2.2 Service Recovery Service industries tend to minimize the losses by coping with service failure promptly. This responses of service providers to service failure mean service recovery(Kelly & Davis, 1994). Bitner(1990) went on his study from customers' view about service providers' behavior for customers to recognize their satisfaction/dissatisfaction at service point. According to them, to manage service failure successfully, exact recognition of service problem, an apology, sufficient description about service failure and some tangible compensation are important. Parasuraman, Zeithaml & Malhorta(2005) approached the service recovery from how to measure, rather than how to manage, and moved to on-line market not to off-line, then invented E-RecS-QUAL which is a measuring tool about on-line service recovery. 2.3 Customer Satisfaction The definition of customer satisfaction can be divided into two points of view. First, they approached customer satisfaction from outcome of comsumer. Howard & Sheth(1969) defined satisfaction as 'a cognitive condition feeling being rewarded properly or improperly for their sacrifice.' and Westbrook & Reilly(1983) also defined customer satisfaction/dissatisfaction as 'a psychological reaction to the behavior pattern of shopping and purchasing, the display condition of retail store, outcome of purchased goods and service as well as whole market.' Second, they approached customer satisfaction from process. Engel & Blackwell(1982) defined satisfaction as 'an assessment of a consistency in chosen alternative proposal and their belief they had with them.' Tse & Wilton(1988) defined customer satisfaction as 'a customers' reaction to discordance between advance expectation and ex post facto outcome.' That is, this point of view that customer satisfaction is process is the important factor that comparing and assessing process what they expect and outcome of consumer. Unlike outcome-oriented approach, process-oriented approach has many advantages. As process-oriented approach deals with customers' whole expenditure experience, it checks up main process by measuring one by one each factor which is essential role at each step. And this approach enables us to check perceptual/psychological process formed customer satisfaction. Because of these advantages, now many studies are adopting this process-oriented approach(Yi, 1995). 2.4 Loyalty Intention Loyalty has been studied by dividing into behavioral approaches, attitudinal approaches and complex approaches(Dekimpe et al., 1997). In the early years of study, they defined loyalty focusing on behavioral concept, behavioral approaches regard customer loyalty as "a tendency to purchase periodically within a certain period of time at specific retail store." But the loyalty of behavioral approaches focuses on only outcome of customer behavior, so there are someone to point the limits that customers' decision-making situation or process were neglected(Enis & Paul, 1970; Raj, 1982; Lee, 2002). So the attitudinal approaches were suggested. The attitudinal approaches consider loyalty contains all the cognitive, emotional, voluntary factors(Oliver, 1997), define the customer loyalty as "friendly behaviors for specific retail stores." However these attitudinal approaches can explain that how the customer loyalty form and change, but cannot say positively whether it is moved to real purchasing in the future or not. This is a kind of shortcoming(Oh, 1995). 3. Research Design 3.1 Research Model Based on the objects of this study, the research model derived is

    . 3.2 Hypotheses 3.2.1 The Hypothesis of On-line Service Quality and Overall Service Quality The relation between on-line service quality and overall service quality I-1. Efficiency of on-line service quality may have a significant effect on overall service quality. I-2. System availability of on-line service quality may have a significant effect on overall service quality. I-3. Fulfillment of on-line service quality may have a significant effect on overall service quality. I-4. Privacy of on-line service quality may have a significant effect on overall service quality. 3.2.2 The Hypothesis of On-line Service Recovery and Overall Service Quality The relation between on-line service recovery and overall service quality II-1. Responsiveness of on-line service recovery may have a significant effect on overall service quality. II-2. Compensation of on-line service recovery may have a significant effect on overall service quality. II-3. Contact of on-line service recovery may have a significant effect on overall service quality. 3.2.3 The Hypothesis of Overall Service Quality and Customer Satisfaction The relation between overall service quality and customer satisfaction III-1. Overall service quality may have a significant effect on customer satisfaction. 3.2.4 The Hypothesis of Customer Satisfaction and Loyalty Intention The relation between customer satisfaction and loyalty intention IV-1. Customer satisfaction may have a significant effect on loyalty intention. 3.2.5 The Hypothesis of a Mediation Variable Wolfinbarger & Gilly(2003) and Parasuraman, Zeithaml & Malhotra(2005) had made clear that each dimension of service quality has a significant effect on overall service quality. Add to this, the authors analyzed empirically that each dimension of on-line service quality has a positive effect on customer satisfaction. With that viewpoint, this study would examine if overall service quality mediates between on-line service quality and each dimension of customer satisfaction, keeping on looking into the relation between on-line service quality and overall service quality, overall service quality and customer satisfaction. And as this study understands that each dimension of on-line service recovery also has an effect on overall service quality, this would examine if overall service quality also mediates between on-line service recovery and each dimension of customer satisfaction. Therefore these hypotheses followed are set up to examine if overall service quality plays its role as the mediation variable. The relation between on-line service quality and customer satisfaction V-1. Overall service quality may mediate the effects of efficiency of on-line service quality on customer satisfaction. V-2. Overall service quality may mediate the effects of system availability of on-line service quality on customer satisfaction. V-3. Overall service quality may mediate the effects of fulfillment of on-line service quality on customer satisfaction. V-4. Overall service quality may mediate the effects of privacy of on-line service quality on customer satisfaction. The relation between on-line service recovery and customer satisfaction VI-1. Overall service quality may mediate the effects of responsiveness of on-line service recovery on customer satisfaction. VI-2. Overall service quality may mediate the effects of compensation of on-line service recovery on customer satisfaction. VI-3. Overall service quality may mediate the effects of contact of on-line service recovery on customer satisfaction. 4. Empirical Analysis 4.1 Research design and the characters of data This empirical study aimed at customers who ever purchased air ticket at the Web sites for reservation and issue. Total 430 questionnaires were distributed, and 400 were collected. After surveying with the final questionnaire, the frequency test was performed about variables of sex, age which is demographic factors for analyzing general characters of sample data. Sex of data is consist of 146 of male(42.7%) and 196 of female(57.3%), so portion of female is a little higher. Age is composed of 11 of 10s(3.2%), 199 of 20s(58.2%), 105 of 30s(30.7%), 22 of 40s(6.4%), 5 of 50s(1.5%). The reason that portions of 20s and 30s are higher can be supposed that they use the Internet frequently and purchase air ticket directly. 4.2 Assessment of measuring scales This study used the internal consistency analysis to measure reliability, and then used the Cronbach'$\alpha$ to assess this. As a result of reliability test, Cronbach'$\alpha$ value of every component shows more than 0.6, it is found that reliance of the measured variables are ensured. After reliability test, the explorative factor analysis was performed. the factor sampling was performed by the Principal Component Analysis(PCA), the factor rotation was performed by the Varimax which is good for verifying mutual independence between factors. By the result of the initial factor analysis, items blocking construct validity were removed, and the result of the final factor analysis performed for verifying construct validity is followed above. 4.3 Hypothesis Testing 4.3.1 Hypothesis Testing by the Regression Analysis(SPSS) 4.3.2 Analysis of Mediation Effect To verify mediation effect of overall service quality of and , this study used the phased analysis method proposed by Baron & Kenny(1986) generally used. As shows, Step 1 and Step 2 are significant, and mediation variable has a significant effect on dependent variables and so does independent variables at Step 3, too. And there needs to prove the partial mediation effect, independent variable's estimate ability at Step 3(Standardized coefficient $\beta$eta : efficiency=.164, system availability=.074, fulfillment=.108, privacy=.107) is smaller than its estimate ability at Step 2(Standardized coefficient $\beta$eta : efficiency=.409, system availability=.227, fulfillment=.386, privacy=.237), so it was proved that overall service quality played a role as the partial mediation between on-line service quality and satisfaction. As
    shows, Step 1 and Step 2 are significant, and mediation variable has a significant effect on dependent variables and so does independent variables at Step 3, too. And there needs to prove the partial mediation effect, independent variable's estimate ability at Step 3(Standardized coefficient $\beta$eta : responsiveness=.164, compensation=.117, contact=.113) is smaller than its estimate ability at Step 2(Standardized coefficient $\beta$eta : responsiveness=.409, compensation=.386, contact=.237), so it was proved that overall service quality played a role as the partial mediation between on-line service recovery and satisfaction. Verified results on the basis of empirical analysis are followed. First, as the result of , it shows that all were chosen, so on-line service quality has a positive effect on overall service quality. Especially fulfillment of overall service quality has the most effect, and then efficiency, system availability, privacy in order. Second, as the result of , it shows that all were chosen, so on-line service recovery has a positive effect on overall service quality. Especially responsiveness of overall service quality has the most effect, and then contact, compensation in order. Third, as the result of and , it shows that and all were chosen, so overall service quality has a positive effect on customer satisfaction, customer satisfaction has a positive effect on loyalty intention. Fourth, as the result of and , it shows that and all were chosen, so overall service quality plays a role as the partial mediation between on-line service quality and customer satisfaction, on-line service recovery and customer satisfaction. 5. Conclusion This study measured and analyzed service quality and service recovery of the Web sites that customers made a reservation and issued their air tickets, and by improving customer satisfaction through the result, this study put its final goal to grope how to keep loyalty customers. On the basis of the result of empirical analysis, suggestion points of this study are followed. First, this study regarded E-S-QUAL that measures on-line service quality and E-RecS-QUAL that measures on-line service recovery as variables, so it overcame the limit of existing studies that used modified SERVQUAL to measure service quality of the Web sites. Second, it shows that fulfillment and efficiency of on-line service quality have the most significant effect on overall service quality. Therefore the Web sites of reserving and issuing air tickets should try harder to elevate efficiency and fulfillment. Third, privacy of on-line service quality has the least significant effect on overall service quality, but this may be caused by un-assurance of customers whether the Web sites protect safely their confidential information or not. So they need to notify customers of this fact clearly. Fourth, there are many cases that customers don't recognize the importance of on-line service recovery, but if they would think that On-line service recovery has an effect on customer satisfaction and loyalty intention, as its importance is very significant they should prepare for that. Fifth, because overall service quality has a positive effect on customer satisfaction and loyalty intention, they should try harder to elevate service quality and service recovery of the Web sites of reserving and issuing air tickets to maximize customer satisfaction and to secure loyalty customers. Sixth, it is found that overall service quality plays a role as the partial mediation, but now there are rarely existing studies about this, so there need to be more studies about this.

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  • A Data-based Sales Forecasting Support System for New Businesses (데이터기반의 신규 사업 매출추정방법 연구: 지능형 사업평가 시스템을 중심으로)

    • Jun, Seung-Pyo;Sung, Tae-Eung;Choi, San
      • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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      • v.23 no.1
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      • pp.1-22
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      • 2017
    • Analysis of future business or investment opportunities, such as business feasibility analysis and company or technology valuation, necessitate objective estimation on the relevant market and expected sales. While there are various ways to classify the estimation methods of these new sales or market size, they can be broadly divided into top-down and bottom-up approaches by benchmark references. Both methods, however, require a lot of resources and time. Therefore, we propose a data-based intelligent demand forecasting system to support evaluation of new business. This study focuses on analogical forecasting, one of the traditional quantitative forecasting methods, to develop sales forecasting intelligence systems for new businesses. Instead of simply estimating sales for a few years, we hereby propose a method of estimating the sales of new businesses by using the initial sales and the sales growth rate of similar companies. To demonstrate the appropriateness of this method, it is examined whether the sales performance of recently established companies in the same industry category in Korea can be utilized as a reference variable for the analogical forecasting. In this study, we examined whether the phenomenon of "mean reversion" was observed in the sales of start-up companies in order to identify errors in estimating sales of new businesses based on industry sales growth rate and whether the differences in business environment resulting from the different timing of business launch affects growth rate. We also conducted analyses of variance (ANOVA) and latent growth model (LGM) to identify differences in sales growth rates by industry category. Based on the results, we proposed industry-specific range and linear forecasting models. This study analyzed the sales of only 150,000 start-up companies in Korea in the last 10 years, and identified that the average growth rate of start-ups in Korea is higher than the industry average in the first few years, but it shortly shows the phenomenon of mean-reversion. In addition, although the start-up founding juncture affects the sales growth rate, it is not high significantly and the sales growth rate can be different according to the industry classification. Utilizing both this phenomenon and the performance of start-up companies in relevant industries, we have proposed two models of new business sales based on the sales growth rate. The method proposed in this study makes it possible to objectively and quickly estimate the sales of new business by industry, and it is expected to provide reference information to judge whether sales estimated by other methods (top-down/bottom-up approach) pass the bounds from ordinary cases in relevant industry. In particular, the results of this study can be practically used as useful reference information for business feasibility analysis or technical valuation for entering new business. When using the existing top-down method, it can be used to set the range of market size or market share. As well, when using the bottom-up method, the estimation period may be set in accordance of the mean reverting period information for the growth rate. The two models proposed in this study will enable rapid and objective sales estimation of new businesses, and are expected to improve the efficiency of business feasibility analysis and technology valuation process by developing intelligent information system. In academic perspectives, it is a very important discovery that the phenomenon of 'mean reversion' is found among start-up companies out of general small-and-medium enterprises (SMEs) as well as stable companies such as listed companies. In particular, there exists the significance of this study in that over the large-scale data the mean reverting phenomenon of the start-up firms' sales growth rate is different from that of the listed companies, and that there is a difference in each industry. If a linear model, which is useful for estimating the sales of a specific company, is highly likely to be utilized in practical aspects, it can be explained that the range model, which can be used for the estimation method of the sales of the unspecified firms, is highly likely to be used in political aspects. It implies that when analyzing the business activities and performance of a specific industry group or enterprise group there is political usability in that the range model enables to provide references and compare them by data based start-up sales forecasting system.

    The Comparative Analysis Study and Usability Assessment of Fat Suppressed 3D T2* weighted Technique and Fat Suppressed 3D SPGR Technique when Examining MRI for Knee Joint Cartilage Assesment (슬관절 연골 평가를 위한 자기공명영상 검사 시 지방 신호 억제 3D T2* Weighted 기법과 지방 신호 억제 3D SPGR 기법의 비교 및 유용성 평가)

    • Kang, Sung-Jin
      • Journal of the Korean Magnetics Society
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      • v.26 no.6
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      • pp.219-225
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      • 2016
    • In this study, for assessment of degenerative knee joint cartilage disease we acquired images by fat suppressed 3D spoiled gradient recalled (SPGR) and fat suppressed 3D $T2^*$ weighted imaging techniques. To do a quantitative evaluation, the knee joint cartilage was divided into medial femoral cartilage (MFC), medial tibial cartilage (MTC), lateral femoral cartilage (LFC), lateral femoral cartilage (LFC) and patella cartilage (Pat) to measure their respective signal intensity values, signal-to-noise ratio, and contrast-to-noise ratio. As for the measured values, statistical significance between two techniques was verified by using Mann-Whitney U-Test. To do a qualitative evaluation, two radiologists have examined images by techniques after which image artifact, cartilage surface, tissue contrast, and depiction of lesion distinguishing were evaluated based on 4-point scaling (1: bad, 2: appropriate, 3: good, 4: excellent), and based on the result, statistical significance was verified by using Kappa-value Test. 3.0T MR system and HD T/R 8ch knee array coil were used to acquire images. As a result of a quantitative analysis, based on SNR values measured by using two imaging techniques, MFC, LFC, LTC, and Pat showed statistical significance (p < 0.05), but MTC did not (p > 0.05). As a result of verifying statistical significance for measured CNR value, MFC, LFC, and Pat showed statistical significance (p < 0.05), while MTC and LTC did not show statistical significance (p > 0.05). As a result of a qualitative analysis, by comparing mean values for evaluated image items, 3D $T2^*$ weighted Image has indicated a slightly higher value. As for conformance verification between the two observers by using Kappa-value test, all evaluated items have indicated statistically significant results (p < 0.05). 3D $T2^*$ weighted technique holds a clinical value equal to or superior to 3D SPGR technique with respect to evaluating images, such as distinguishing knee joint cartilages, comparing nearby tissues contrast, and distinguishing lesions.

    Trends in QA/QC of Phytoplankton Data for Marine Ecosystem Monitoring (해양생태계 모니터링을 위한 식물플랑크톤 자료의 정도 관리 동향)

    • YIH, WONHO;PARK, JONG WOO;SEONG, KYEONG AH;PARK, JONG-GYU;YOO, YEONG DU;KIM, HYUNG SEOP
      • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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      • v.26 no.3
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      • pp.220-237
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      • 2021
    • Since the functional importance of marine phytoplankton was firstly advocated from early 1880s massive data on the species composition and abundance were produced by classical microscopic observation and the advanced auto-imaging technologies. Recently, pigment composition resulted from direct chemical analysis of phytoplankton samples or indirect remote sensing could be used for the group-specific quantification, which leads us to more diversified data production methods and for more improved spatiotemporal accessibilities to the target data-gathering points. In quite a few cases of many long-term marine ecosystem monitoring programs the phytoplankton species composition and abundance was included as a basic monitoring item. The phytoplankton data could be utilized as a crucial evidence for the long-term change in phytoplankton community structure and ecological functioning at the monitoring stations. Usability of the phytoplankton data sometimes is restricted by the differences in data producers throughout the whole monitoring period. Methods for sample treatments, analyses, and species identification of the phytoplankton species could be inconsistent among the different data producers and the monitoring years. In-depth study to determine the precise quantitative values of the phytoplankton species composition and abundance might be begun by Victor Hensen in late 1880s. International discussion on the quality assurance of the marine phytoplankton data began in 1969 by the SCOR Working Group 33 of ICSU. Final report of the Working group in 1974 (UNESCO Technical Papers in Marine Science 18) was later revised and published as the UNESCO Monographs on oceanographic methodology 6. The BEQUALM project, the former body of IPI (International Phytoplankton Intercomparison) for marine phytoplankton data QA/QC under ISO standard, was initiated in late 1990. The IPI is promoting international collaboration for all the participating countries to apply the QA/QC standard established from the 20 years long experience and practices. In Korea, however, such a QA/QC standard for marine phytoplankton species composition and abundance data is not well established by law, whereas that for marine chemical data from measurements and analysis has been already set up and managed. The first priority might be to establish a QA/QC standard system for species composition and abundance data of marine phytoplankton, then to be extended to other functional groups at the higher consumer level of marine food webs.


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