• Title/Summary/Keyword: Urban growth prediction

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A Model to Calibrate Expressway Traffic Forecasting Errors Considering Socioeconomic Characteristics and Road Network Structure (사회경제적 특성과 도로망구조를 고려한 고속도로 교통량 예측 오차 보정모형)

  • Yi, Yongju;Kim, Youngsun;Yu, Jeong Whon
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.93-101
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    • 2013
  • PURPOSES : This study is to investigate the relationship of socioeconomic characteristics and road network structure with traffic growth patterns. The findings is to be used to tweak traffic forecast provided by traditional four step process using relevant socioeconomic and road network data. METHODS: Comprehensive statistical analysis is used to identify key explanatory variables using historical observations on traffic forecast, actual traffic counts and surrounding environments. Based on statistical results, a multiple regression model is developed to predict the effects of socioeconomic and road network attributes on traffic growth patterns. The validation of the proposed model is also performed using a different set of historical data. RESULTS : The statistical analysis results indicate that several socioeconomic characteristics and road network structure cleary affect the tendency of over- and under-estimation of road traffics. Among them, land use is a key factor which is revealed by a factor that traffic forecast for urban road tends to be under-estimated while rural road traffic prediction is generally over-estimated. The model application suggests that tweaking the traffic forecast using the proposed model can reduce the discrepancies between the predicted and actual traffic counts from 30.4% to 21.9%. CONCLUSIONS : Prediction of road traffic growth patterns based on surrounding socioeconomic and road network attributes can help develop the optimal strategy of road construction plan by enhancing reliability of traffic forecast as well as tendency of traffic growth.

Prediction of Bending Fatigue Life of Cracked Out-of-Plane Gusset Joint Repaired by CFRP Plates

  • Matsumoto, Risa;Komoto, Takafumi;Ishikawa, Toshiyuki;Hattori, Atsushi;Kawano, Hirotaka
    • International journal of steel structures
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.1284-1296
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    • 2018
  • Carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP), plates bonding repair method is one of the simple repair methods for cracked steel structures. In this study, the influence of width of CFRP plates on bending fatigue life of out-of-plane gusset joint strengthened with CFRP plates was investigated from the experimental and numerical point of view. In the bending fatigue test of cracked out-of-plane gusset joint strengthened with CFRP plates, the effect of width of CFRP plates on crack growth life was clarified experimentally. Namely, it was revealed that the crack growth life becomes larger with increasing the width of CFRP plates. In the numerical approach, the stress intensity factor (SIF) at the surface point of a semi-elliptical surface crack was estimated based on the linear fracture mechanics. Furthermore, the extended fatigue life of cracked out-of-plane gusset joint strengthened with CFRP plates was evaluated by using the estimated SIF at the surface point and the empirical formula of the aspect ratio of semi-elliptical crack. As the results of numerical analysis, the estimated fatigue life of the specimen strengthened with CFRP plates showed the good agreement with the test results.

A Prediction and Analysis for Functional Change of Ecosystem in South Korea (생태계 용역가치를 이용한 대한민국 생태계의 기능적 변화 예측 및 분석)

  • Kim, Jin-Soo;Park, So-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.114-128
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    • 2013
  • Rapid industrialization and economic growth have led to serious problems including reduced open space, environmental degradation, traffic congestion, and urban sprawl. These problems have been exacerbated by the absence of effective conservation and governance, and have resulted in various social conflicts. In response to these challenges, many scholar and government hope to achieve sustainable development through the establishment and management of environment-friendly planning. For this purpose, we would like to analyze functional change for ecosystem by future land-use/cover changes in South Korea. Toward this goal, we predicted land-use/cover changes from 2010 to 2060 using the future population of Statistics Korea and urban growth probability map created by logistic regression analysis and analyzed ecosystem service value using costanza's coefficient. In the case of scenario 1, ecosystem service value represented 6,783~7,092 million USD. In the case of scenario 2, ecosystem represented 6,775~7,089 million USD, 2.9~7.6 million USD decreased compared by scenario 1. This was the result of area reduction for farmland and wetland which have high environmental value relatively according to urban growth by development point of view. The results of this analysis indicate that environmentally sustainable systems and urban development must be applied to achieve sustainable development and environmental protection. Quantitative analysis of environmental values in accordance with environmental policy can help inform the decisions of policy makers and urban developers. Furthermore, forecasting urban growth based on future demand will provide more precise predictive analysis.

A Study on the Analysis of Simulation for Fire Safety Diagnosis in Traditional Market Area (전통시장지역의 화재위험성 평가를 위한 시뮬레이션 해석에 관한 연구)

  • Koo, In-Hyuk;Lee, Byeong-Heun;Kwon, Young-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.46-47
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    • 2017
  • Korea rapidly arranged urbanization and overpopulation with high growth of economy and all kinds of decrepit facilities are scattered all over the downtown. If there is a strong wind in fire, fire is rapidly increased by various fire spread factors. And Korea cannot build prediction model of urban fire combustion phenomena because there is no studies that physically explains the suitable flame phenomena for its real state. In this study, based on the Japanese Urban fire simulation to target the traditional market area and suitability of fire risk assessment were reviewed.

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A Study on the Analysis of Simulation for Fire Safety Diagnosis in Building Congested Area (건축물 밀집지구의 화재위험성 평가를 위한 시뮬레이션 해석에 관한 연구)

  • Koo, In-Hyuk;Yoon, Ung-Gi;Kim, Bong-Chan;Kwon, Young-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2013.11a
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    • pp.226-227
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    • 2013
  • Korea rapidly arranged urbanization and overpopulation with high growth of economy and all kinds of decrepit facilities are scattered all over the downtown. If there is a strong wind in fire, fire is rapidly increased by various fire spread factors. And Korea cannot build prediction model of urban fire combustion phenomena because there is no studies that physically explains the suitable flame phenomena for its real state. In this study, based on the Japanese Urban fire simulation to target the building congested Area and suitability of fire risk assessment were reviewed.

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A Study on the Analysis of Simulation for Fire Safety Diagnosis in Wooden Building Congested Area (목조건물 밀집 지역의 화재위험성 평가를 위한 시뮬레이션 해석에 관한 연구)

  • Koo, In-Hyuk;Kim, Bong-Chan;Seo, Dong-Goo;Kwon, Young-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2013.05a
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    • pp.87-88
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    • 2013
  • Korea rapidly arranged urbanization and overpopulation with high growth of economy and all kinds of decrepit facilities are scattered all over the downtown. If there is a strong wind in fire, fire is rapidly increased by various fire spread factors. And Korea cannot build prediction model of urban fire combustion phenomena because there is no studies that physically explains the suitable flame phenomena for its real state. In this study, based on the Japanese Urban fire simulation to target the wooden building congested Area and suitability of fire risk assessment were reviewed.

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Land Cover Change and Urban Greenery Prediction in Jabotabek by using Remote Sensing

  • Zain, Alinda-Medrial;Takeuchi, Kazuhiko;Tsunekawa, Atsushi
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture International Edition
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    • no.1
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    • pp.59-66
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    • 2001
  • The tremendous growth of population and physical development in the largest urban agglomeration in Indonesia -the Jakarta Metropolitan Region, also known as Jabotabek (Jakarta, Bogor, Tanggerang, Bekasi)- has created many environmental problems, such as land use conversion, increasing urban temperature, water and air pollution, intrusion of seawater, and flooding. These problems have become more serious as the urban green space (trees, shrubs, and groundcovers) has decreased rapidly with the urbanization process. Urban green space directly benefits the urban environment through ameliorating air pollution, controlling temperature, contributing to the balance of the hydrological system, and providing space for recreation and relaxation. Because there is little hard data to support the claim of decreasing greenery in Jabotabek, it is necessary to measure the amount of urban green space. The paper describes the spatial analysis of urban green space within Jabotabek through the use of a geographical information system (GIS). We used GIS and remote sensing to determine land cover change and predicted greenery percentage. Interpretation of Landsat data for 1972, 1983, 1990, and 1997 showed that Jabotabek has experiences rapid development and associated depletion of green open space. The proportion of green open space fell by 23% from 1972 to 1997. We found a low percentage of urban green space in the center of Jakarta but a high percentage in fringe area. The amount of greenery is predicted by the Ratio Vegetation Index (RVI) model: predicted greenery (%) = [146.04] RVI - 134.96. We consider that our result will be useful for landscape planning to improve the environment of Jabotabek.

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A Study on the Improvement of Urban Fire Simulation on Firebrand Scattering (불티의 성상을 고려한 도시화재 시뮬레이션 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Koo, In-Hyuk;Seo, Dong-Goo;Kim, Bong-Chan;Kwon, Young-Jin
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.67-72
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    • 2015
  • Korea urbanized rapidly, and overpopulation with high growth of the economy has resulted in decrepit facilities scattered all cities. If there is a strong wind during a fire, the fire is rapidly spread by various factors. Korea cannot build a prediction model for urban fire combustion phenomena because there are no studies that physically explain the suitable flame phenomena for its buildings. This study built a model for the generation of fire brand and includes to scattering, fall, and ignition An experiment was done using the wind tunnel facilities of the Japanese Building Research Institute (BRI). The results were used to explain the behavior of fire brand, and reflected in the fire simulation model.

Fatigue Crack Growth Rates of a Railway Wheel Steel under Mixed Mode Loading Conditions (혼합모드 하중조건에서의 철도 차륜재의 피로균열 실험에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Taek-Young;Lee, Man-Suk;You, In-Dong;Kim, Ho-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.8-13
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    • 2013
  • Fatigue crack growth tests were conducted on urban railway wheel steel under mode I and mixed-mode conditions. Fatigue crack growth rates were evaluated in terms of equivalent stress intensity factor ranges, using both the extended and projected crack lengths. The equivalent stress intensity factor range with the growth rate results obtained under mode I loading conditions can be used to predict the crack growth rate under mixed-mode loading conditions. Extended crack length rather than projected crack length is appropriate for the prediction of the crack growth rate under the mixed-mode loading conditions.

The impact of EPB pressure on surface settlement and face displacement in intersection of triple tunnels at Mashhad metro

  • Eskandari, Fatemeh;Goharrizi, Kamran Goshtasbi;Hooti, Amir
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.769-774
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    • 2018
  • The growth of cities requires the construction of new tunnels close to the existing ones. Prediction and control of ground movement around the tunnel are important especially in urban area. The ground respond due to EPB (Earth Pressure Balance) pressure are investigated using the finite element method by ABAQUS in intersection of the triplet tunnels (Line 2, 3 and 4) of Mashhad Urban Railway in Iran. Special attention is paid to the effect of EPB pressure on the tunnel face displacement. The results of the analysis show that in EPB tunneling, surface settlement and face displacement is related to EPB pressure. Moreover, it is found that tunnel construction sequence is a great effect in face displacement value. For this study, this value in Line 4 where is excavated after line 3, is smaller than that line. In addition, the trend of the displacement curves are changed with the depth for all lines where is located in above and below, close to and above the centerline tunnel face for Line 2, 3 and 4, respectively. It is concluded that: (i) the surface settlement decreases with increasing EPB pressure on the tunnel face; (ii) at a constant EPB pressure, the tunnel face displacement values increase with depth. In addition, this is depended on the tunneling sequence; (iii) the trend of the displacement curves change with the depth.