• 제목/요약/키워드: Unprofitable Routes

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A Study on Network Construction Strategies for Long-Haul Low-Cost Carrier Operations

  • Choi, Doo-Won;Han, Neung-Ho
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • 제25권8호
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    • pp.57-74
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    • 2021
  • Purpose - This study aims to analyze the characteristics of network construction by Norwegian Air and AirAsia X, which are recognized as leading airlines in the long-haul LCC market. Based on this analysis, this study intends to provide implications for networking strategies for Korean LCCs that seek to enter the long-haul market when the aviation market stabilizes again upon the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology - To conduct the network analysis on long-haul low-cost airlines, the Official Airline Guide (OAG) Schedule Analyzer was used to extract long-haul data of Norwegian Air and AirAsia X. To analyze the trend of the long-haul route network, we obtained the data from 3 separate years between 2011 and 2019. The network was analyzed using UCINET 6.0 in order to examine the network structure of long-haul low-cost airlines and the growth trend of each stage. Findings - Analyzing the network of long-haul routes by visualizing the network structure of low-cost carriers showed the following results. In its early years, Norwegian Air's long-haul route network, centering on regional airports in Spain and Sweden, connected European regions, the Middle East, and Africa. As time passed, however, the network expanded and became steadily strong as the airline connected airports in other European countries to North America and Asia. In addition, in 2011, AirAsia X showed links to parts of Europe, such as London and Paris, the Middle East and India, and Australia and Northeast Asia, centering on the Kuala Lumpur Airport. Although the routes in Europe were suspended, the network continued to expand while concentrating on routes of less than approximately 7,000 km. It was found that instead of giving up on ultra-long-haul routes such as Europe, the network was further expanded in Northeast Asia, such as the routes in Korea and Japan centering on China. Originality/value - Until the COVID-19 pandemic broke out, Norwegian Air actively expanded long-haul routes, resulting in the number of long-haul routes quintupling since 2011. The unfortunate circumstance, wherein the world aviation market was rendered stagnant due to the outbreak of COVID-19, hit Norwegian Air harder than any other low-cost carriers. However, in the case of AirAsia X, it was found that it did not suffer as much damage as Norwegian Air because it initially withdrew from unprofitable routes over 7,000 km and grew by gradually increasing profitable destinations over shorter distances. When the COVID-19 pandemic ends and the aviation market stabilizes, low-cost carriers around the world, including Korea, that enter the long-haul route market will need to employ strategies to analyze the marketability of potential routes and to launch the routes that yield the highest profits without being bound by distance. For stable growth, it is necessary to take a conservative stance; first, by reviewing the business feasibility of the operating a small number of highly profitable routes, and second, by gradually expanding these routes.

버스노선개편 이후 부산 시내버스 운행실태에 관한 고찰 (Study on Local Bus Service after Bus Route Reform in Busan)

  • 송기욱;정헌영;이준승
    • 대한교통학회지
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    • 제26권3호
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    • pp.41-51
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    • 2008
  • 본고에서는 노선별 카드자료와 정산자료를 바탕으로 시내버스 운행계통 및 운행실태를 여러 가지 통계기법을 이용하여 분석함으로서 시내버스 노선개편 이후의 시내버스 노선체계 특성을 밝히고 있다. 운행거리와 운행시간과의 관계는 운행속도에 영향을 많이 받는 것으로 나타났고, 배차간격을 10분 이내로 하기 위해서는 단위시간당 운행대수가 0.1013대/분이상이 되어야 하며, 운행시간의 경우는 오전시간대보다 오후시간대가 더 많이 소요되는 것으로 나타났다. 이용승객 규모에 따른 운행계통 비교에서는 운행거리, 배차간격, 운행시간, 운행속도 모든 부문에서 이용승객이 적은 노선의 편차가 이용승객이 많은 노선보다 크게 나타났다. 한편, 카드건수, 평균수입, 환승률간의 분석 결과, 카드건수와 평균수입의 관계는 일반노선이 선형함수 관계, 좌석 및 급행노선은 지수함수 관계로 설명될 수 있다. 또한 일반노선, 좌석 및 급행노선의 환승률 1% 증가를 카드건수로 환산하면 각각 6.3건/대/일, 4.9건/대/일의 감소에 해당하는 것으로 분석되었다. 마지막으로 흑자노선과 적자노선의 분석 결과인데, 흑자노선과 적자노선을 판별하는데 유효한 4가지 변수를 판별력의 크기순으로 나열하면 km당 운행대수, 외곽경유 유무, 지하철 경유수, 종합대학 경유수순이 된다. 향후 마을버스 환승요금제 시행 시에는 수입증가를 위하여 상기 유효변수들을 잘 고려한 시내버스 노선조정과 대중교통우선정책이 필요하며, 비용절감을 위하여 시내버스와 마을버스의 위계를 보다 명확히 한 노선운영이 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

순서형 프로빗 모형을 이용한 강우시 시내버스 이용수요의 변동분석 (Analysis of Intra-city Bus Demand during Rainfall Using Ordered Probit Model)

  • 정헌영;송금영;김광욱
    • 대한교통학회지
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    • 제29권5호
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    • pp.43-54
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    • 2011
  • 부산시는 시내버스 준공영제 시행 후 적자노선에 대한 재정지원금의 부담이 점점 증가하고 있는 실정이다. 이는 지방 재정에 큰 부담으로 작용하고 있어, 이를 해결하는 것은 시내버스 시스템 개선을 위한 큰 과제이다. 도시교통에 있어 강우는 시내버스 수요에 큰 영향을 미치는 요인 중에 하나이다. 따라서 이 연구를 통해 강우가 시내버스 이용수요에 끼치는 영향을 알아보고자 한다. 실제 시내버스 이용자를 대상으로 강우에 따른 시내버스 이용실태와 강우량에 따른 시내버스 이용의식을 조사였다. 이를 바탕으로 순서형 프로빗 모형을 통한 강우에 따른 시내버스 예측모형을 구축하였으며, 강우량에 따른 시내버스 이용탄력도에 대하여 분석하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 시내버스 이용활성화를 촉진할 수 있는 자료로 사용될 것이며, 향후 시내버스 시스템 개선에 있어 중요한 기초자료로 활용될 것으로 기대한다.

A Research Program for Modeling Strategic Aspects of International Container Port Competition

  • Anderson, Christopher M.;Luo, Meifeng;Chang, Young-Tae;Lee, Tae-Woo;Grigalunas, Thomas A.
    • 한국항만경제학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국항만경제학회 2006년도 국제학술대회
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2006
  • As national economies globalize, demand for intercontinental container shipping services is growing rapidly, providing a potential economic boon for the countries and communities that provide port services. On the promise of profits, many governments are investing heavily in port infrastructure, leading to a possible glut in port capacity, driving down prices for port services and eliminating profits as ports compete for business. Further, existing ports are making strategic investments to protect their market share, increasing the chance new ports will be overcapitalized and unprofitable. Governments and port researchers need a tool for understanding how local competition in their region will affect demand for port services at their location, and thus better assess the profitability of a prospective port. We propose to develop such a tool by extending our existing simulation model of global container traffic to incorporate demand-side shipper preferences and supply-side strategic responses by incumbent ports to changes in the global port network, including building new ports, scaling up existing ports, and unexpected port closures. We will estimate shipper preferences over routes, port attributes and port services based on US and international shipping data, and redesign the simulation model to maximize the shipper's revealed preference functions rather than simply minimize costs. As demand shifts, competing ports will adjust their pricing (short term) and infrastructure (long term) to remain competitive or defend market share, a reaction we will capture with a game theoretic model of local monopoly that will predict changes in port characteristics. The model's hypotheses will be tested in a controlled laboratory experiment tailored to local port competition in Asia, which will also serve to demonstrate the subtle game theoretic concepts of imperfect competition to a policy and industry audience. We will apply the simulation model to analyze changes in global container traffic in three scenarios: addition of a new large port in the US, extended closure of an existing large port in the US, and cooperative and competitive port infrastructure development among Korean partner countries in Asia.

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