• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.10 no.9
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• pp.5-11
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• 2012

Purpose - The objective of the paper is to explain both the price sensitivity of international tourists to South Korea and the price sensitivity of Korean tourists to international travel. The study examines long-run equilibrium relationships and Granger causal relationships between foreign exchange rates and inbound and outbound tourism demand in South Korea. Research design/ data / methodology - The study employs monthly time series data from January 1990 to September 2010. The paper examines the long-run equilibrium relationship using the Johansen cointegration test approach after unit root tests. The short-run Granger causality was tested using the vector error correction model with the Wald test. Results - Hypothesis 1 testing whether there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between exchange rates, inbound and outbound tourism demand is supported. Hypothesis 2 testing whether exchange rates lead to a change in touristarrivals and expenditure is not supported. Hypothesis 3 testing whether exchange rates lead to a change in tourist departures and expenditure is supported. Conclusions - The findings of this study show that the impacts of tourism price competitiveness are changing quite significantly with regard to destination competitiveness. In other words, the elasticity of tourism price over tourism demand has been moderated.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.42 no.5
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• pp.357-364
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• 2018

Colombo noticeably became the most economical gateway to the Indian subcontinent, in terms of cost as well as time. The Colombo Port Expansion Project (CPEP) started commencement with the purpose of accommodating mega ships, under the long-term strategies of making Colombo the hub of South Asia. In this context, the purpose of this study is to investigate the causal relationship between Indian ports' originated container traffic, and total transshipments of the port of Colombo, and also to identify the nature of the causality between the two variables, evaluating Granger causality test results. It finds unidirectional causality from total transshipments of Colombo to Indian ports' originated transshipments in the port of Colombo. It suggested that ongoing port expansion projects, opening up for new markets and attracting new shipping lines in the port of Colombo, have generated significant impact on Indian ports' container traffic, via the port of Colombo. Findings would be valuable for future forecasting of container traffic in Colombo port and the policy-making process in the port as well.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.7
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• pp.241-249
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• 2020

The role of money in the modern economy highly determines the intensity and the development of the macroeconomy. The money supply is assumed to be as much as money demand, which reflects the economic character of a country and indicates the growth and development of macroeconomy. In Indonesia, the money supply (M1) is related to the economic dynamics in either the monetary market or the goods market. This research aims at analyzing factors that influence the money supply and to what extent the economic factors affect the money supply in Indonesia. The analysis method used in this research was Vector Autoregressive (VAR) with some variables, such as money supply (M1), interest rate, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from the 1st quarter of 2001 until the 1st quarter of 2013. The data collection method was in the form of data compilation from credible sources, such as Bank of Indonesia (BI), Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), and International Financial Statistics (IFS). To obtain adequate analysis results, several tests were taken, such as unit-root test, Granger causality test, and optimal lag. VAR analysis formulates the correlation among independent variables, so it also sees the study of impulse response and matrix decomposition.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.6 no.3
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• pp.164-169
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• 2004

A spatial interpolation scheme incorporating local geographic potential for cold air accumulation (TOPSIM) was used to test the feasibility of operational frost warning in Chatancheon basin in Yeoncheon County, where the introduction of new crops including temperate zone fruits is planned. Air temperature from April to June 2003 was measured at one-minute intervals at four locations within the basin. Cold-air accumulation potentials (CAP) at 4 sites were calculated for 3 different catchment scales: a rectangular area of 65 x 55 km which covers the whole county, the KOWACO (Korea Water Corporation) hydrologic unit which includes all 4 sites, and the sub-basins delineated by a stream network analysis of the digital elevation model. Daily minimum temperatures at 4 sites were calculated by interpolating the perfect prognosis (i.e., synoptic observations at KMA Dongducheon station) based on TOPSIM with 3 different CAPs. Mean error, mean absolute error, and root mean square error were calculated for 45 days with no precipitation to test the model performance. For the 3 flat locations, little difference was detected in model performance among 3 catchment areas, but the best performance was found with the CAPs calculated for sub-basins at one site (Oksan) on complex terrain. When TOPSIM loaded with sub-basin CAPs was applied to Oksan to predict frost events during the fruit flowering period in 2004, the goodness of fit was sufficient for making an operational frost warning system for mountainous areas.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.12
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• pp.85-94
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• 2021

Infrastructure capacities are essential elements and one of the sustainable lines to drive economic growth. Infrastructure development, both physical and social, is vital to sector-wise economic development. However, there is limited evidence of how infrastructure development in certain sectors benefits the economy as a whole. This study explains the relationships between infrastructure and economic growth in selected middle-income Asian countries, highlighting the essential criteria to benefit from both physical and social infrastructure, as well as sectoral (agriculture, industry, and services) economic output. The research uses the data from 1990 to 2020 for empirical estimations. The study used Levin, Lin, & Chu test, ADF- Fischer chi- Square, and PP- Fischer Chi-Square to test unit root and to observe the stationary nature of the panel. Padroni and Kao cointegration is applied to check the cointegration among different panes. A Fully Modified OLS was employed for checking the association between physical and social infrastructure and economic growth. Results show that physical and social infrastructure negatively impact sectoral output in Asia's middle-income countries. Apart from infrastructure the per capita GDP growth, tax to GDP ratio, and population growth shows a simultaneous relation between infrastructure and sectoral economic growth.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.27-43
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• 2020

Purpose - This study explores the impact of the real estate industry on related industries for the perspective of Chinese steel companies. Design/methodology/approach - The impact of housing prices on the 41 listed steel companies' performance was analyzed by using the panel data model. We used two kinds of housing price indexes that are set in the panel data models to estimate the range of the real estate market, driving the performance growth of steel listed companies. Moreover, the net profit of steel companies is used as the dependent variable. To test the stability of the model, ROA used as a dependent variable for the robustness test. Also, to avoid the time trend of housing prices, this paper selects the growth rate of housing prices as the primary research variable. After Fisher-type testings, there is no unit root problem in both independent and dependent variables. Findings - The results indicated that the rise in the housing price has a positive influence on the steel company performance. When the housing price increases by 1%, the net profit of steel enterprises will increase by 5 to 20 million yuan. Research implications or Originality - In this paper, empirical data at the micro-level and panel model are used to quantify China's real estate industry's driving effect on the iron and steel industry, providing evidence from the microdata level. It helps us to understand further the status and role of China's real estate industry in the economic structure.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.67-74
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• 2022

Purpose: In the current era of rapid development of the information and communication technologies (ICT) sector, the formation of an effective regulatory approach is important. There are some methodological shortcomings and difficulties in the approach system of international organizations that assesses the level of application of ICT in various areas in terms of quantity and quality. The basic element of economic growth differs according to the economic conditions prevailing in the period and the country. While the agricultural sector plays an active role in economic growth or development in an underdeveloped country, in a developed country, capital-intensive and even technology-intensive production is the main element of economic growth. From this point of view, the contribution of information and communication technologies (ICT) to Azerbaijan's socio-economy for the period between 2010-2020 will be examined. Research design and methodology: The unit root test and Granger causality test were applied by taking the CDPPC per Capita, Employment, and Unemployment Rate from the social-o-economic data as the dependent variable, fixed and mobile phone usage and internet usage as the independent variables. The principal results: According to the results obtained; It has been determined that the use of ICT positively affects the socio-economic economic situation.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.121-145
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• 1992

This paper examines characteristics of time series data related to the construction investment(stationarity and time series components such as secular trend, cyclical fluctuation, seasonal variation, and random change) and surveys predictibility, fitness, and explicability of independent variables of various models to build a short-term construction investment forecasting model suitable for current economic circumstances. Unit root test, autocorrelation coefficient and spectral density function analysis show that related time series data do not have unit roots, fluctuate cyclically, and are largely explicated by lagged variables. Moreover it is very important for the short-term construction investment forecasting to grasp time lag relation between construction investment series and leading indicators such as building construction permits and value of construction orders received. In chapter 3, we explicate 7 forecasting models; Univariate time series model (ARIMA and multiplicative linear trend model), multivariate time series model using leading indicators (1st order autoregressive model, vector autoregressive model and error correction model) and multivariate time series model using National Accounts data (simple reduced form model disconnected from simultaneous macroeconomic model and VAR model). These models are examined by 4 statistical tools that are average absolute error, root mean square error, adjusted coefficient of determination, and Durbin-Watson statistic. This analysis proves two facts. First, multivariate models are more suitable than univariate models in the point that forecasting error of multivariate models tend to decrease in contrast to the case of latter. Second, VAR model is superior than any other multivariate models; average absolute prediction error and root mean square error of VAR model are quitely low and adjusted coefficient of determination is higher. This conclusion is reasonable when we consider current construction investment has sustained overheating growth more than secular trend.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.125-148
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• 2004

This paper deals with the relationship between money supply and the stock market. However, unlike past works, it has employed a rational expectation hypothesis and an efficient market hypothesis drawn from new classical macroeconomics and new Keynesian macro-economics, respectively. Accordingly, hypothesis 1 states that if economic subjects have rational expectation, they will immediately respond to a change in money supply. On the other hand, hypothesis 2 supposes that the expectation of economic subjects has changed after the currency crisis. This paper has first identified unit root by using the augmented Dickey-Fuller test and the Phillips-Perron test, then testing both hypotheses by employing the Johansen Procedure and vector error correction model for the periods before and after a currency crisis.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.54 no.2
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• pp.135-144
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• 2021

This paper attempted to find implications for water resource management and water quality improvement by analyzing the causal relationship among discharge, water temperature and pollution index, which were expected to have a great effect on water quality with the rise of water temperature and precipitation change as the warming effect in recent years. For this purpose, the unit root test, cointegration test, and Granger causal test were carried out for 10 multi-purpose dams in Korean major water systems using time series data on discharge, water temperature, BOD, COD and DO. It was analyzed that the fluctuation of water temperature affected the pollution index more than the fluctuation of discharge volume. Also, Hapcheon dam and Chungju dam were the best water quality management dams based on the high causal relationship between water quality and discharge. The second rank was Daecheong dam. The third-ranking group were Yongdam and Andong dam, whose causal relationships between water quality and discharge were low. The last group were the remaining five dams.