• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.135-152
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• 2004

Ever since Benoit's(1973, 1978) study, the relationship between defense spending and economic growth has been the subject of extensive empirical works. While a number of studies have reported that higher defense expenditure stimulate economic growth, many other studies have reported that an increase in military burden may hinder economic growth. To the extent that countries differ substantially in socioeconomic structures, the effects of defense spending cannot be generalized across countries. In this paper, Granger causality tests are performed between Korean defense expenditure and economic growth, consumption, investment, inflation and unemployment rate during the period from 1970 to 2002. The results show that Korean defense expenditure did not affect economic growth and unemployment rate. However, Korean defense expenditure caused consumption and inflation to decrease and investment to increase. On the other hand Korean defense expenditure was not Granger-caused by economic growth, consumption, investment, inflation and unemployment rate. In conclusion, the opportunity cost of Korean defense expenditure seemed to be relatively moderate considering Korean security environment. Even if it was not statistically significant, Korean defense burden at least did not bother economic growth.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.583-595
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• 2004

For the Korean Economically Active Population Survey(EAPS), we consider the composite estimator based on logistic regression model to estimate the unemployment rate for small areas(Si/Gun). Also, small area estimation technique based on hierarchical generalized linear model is proposed to include the random effect which reflect the characteristic of the small areas. The proposed estimation techniques are applied to real domestic data which is from the Korean EAPS of Choongbuk. The MSE of these estimators are estimated by Jackknife method, and the efficiencies of small area estimators are evaluated by the RRMSE. As a result, the composite estimator based on logistic model is much more efficient than others and it turns out that the composite estimator can produce the reliable estimates under the current EAPS system.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.45-54
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• 2012

Published employment statistics do not provide enough information about the relationship of unemployment and economic and business conditions. This study investigates long-run equilibrium relations and short-run adjustment process of unemployment and discouraged unemployment with major price variables in the business coincident and lagging framework. Speed of adjustment from short-run disequilibrium to long-run equilibrium is found to be relatively faster for discouraged unemployment that appears more responsive to changes in most of explanatory variables. Discouraged unemployment is found to reflect reality and suggested to be a more meaningful statistical index.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.65-75
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• 2021

This study analyzes the validity of the Phillips curve with regards to Turkey. The existence and direction of the causality relationship (reason-outcome relationship) between unemployment and inflation is investigated using inflation and unemployment data for the period 1980-2019. Unit root tests were utilized to evaluate the stationarity of the series. In line with the Zivot-Andrews unit root test, which was developed in response to the criticism of the failure of studies that presented macro-variables like inflation to consider traditional unit root tests, in this research, the Engle-Granger cointegration test was implemented to check whether the series could perform a joint action, and, finally, the Granger causality relationship was explored. According to the results of the analysis, over the relevant period there was a single directional causality relationship from inflation toward unemployment in Turkey. The importance of this relationship at the 10% significance level indicates the existence of many different factors that affect inflation and unemployment. Given the existence of a cointegration and causality relationship between inflation and unemployment, it can be said that, in Turkey, the Phillips curve is valid for the period 1980-2019 and that an increase of 1% in inflation will reduce the unemployment rate by 0.028%.

• THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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• v.30
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• pp.145-174
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• 2006

An anti-dumping has become the trade policy of choice for developing countries as well as advanced countries, hence it is the impending issue to the export-oriented countries including Korea. After colligating the analysis on the trade and industrial policy between Korea and China as well as the analysis on the preceding research, the main reasons of anti-dumping were selected as followings; an unemployment rate, real GDP growth rate and consumer price increase as internal factors, and trade balance, regional coefficient and trade specification index as external factors. Then, the research on how the above seven variable factors can affect the number of anti-dumping measures was accomplished. For the empirical analysis, the above information was used after reorganizing them by on the quarterly basis. Through the use of the correlation analysis, backward elimination of multiple regression analysis model and time-series analysis, it has appeared that the unemployment rate appeared to be the most important factors of anti-dumping measures in addition to the increase rate of trade balance. The variable such as the unemployment rate is uncontrollable for us, so it is appropriate to establish and operate an preemptive monitoring system based on the increasing rate of the amount of export and increasing rate of trade surplus.

• THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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• v.61
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• pp.165-190
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• 2014

The purpose of this study is to measure the trade insurance's macroeconomic effects by analyzing the causality between major economic variables(GDP per capita, market interest rate, inflation, unemployment rate, exchange rate) and trade insurance variable. I conducted empirical analyses using First-difference GMM(Generalized Method of Moments), System GMM and Panel-VAR Model, with panel data from 11 countries(Korea, United States, Japan, BRICs, Indonesia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Vietnam) between 1992 and 2011. There are several important findings. Above all, Trade insurance is positively and significantly related to GDP. This results show that trade insurance serves to increase economic growth. In other words, trade insurance leads to economic growth by helping increase GDP per capita. Especially, trade insurance negatively related to unemployment rate, it is for sure that trade insurance contribute to decrease unemployment rate. And trade insurance helps control of inflation. It is also confirmed that trade insurance contributes to price stability, which in turn serves to stabilize the overall economy. And this research finds as uncertainty in the market increases, seen it as increase of exchange rate, increasing trade insurance supply is stabilize the exchange rate.

• Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.1-16
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• 2001

This paper is to examine the trends and structures of unemployment as well as its spatial patterns in Germany. Germany once achieved a well-developed employment system and full employment. Since 1970, however, unemployment has been one of the major issues in Germany. During the last three decades the unemployment rate has risen to unprecedented levels and stayed high. After the German unification, especially, labor market is characterized by the mass unemployment and the structural selective process of unemployment to be imposed on German workers. And regarding to the spatial patterns of massive unemployment, this study shows critical disparities between South and North Germany being overlapped with new disparities between East and West Germany. We can explain the regional differentiation of unemployment on the base of typical mismatch of labour market allocation. It is also shown that massive unemployment is related not only to policy shifts in labor market but also to structural transformation after the unification.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.96-131
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• 2019

Initially entering into the job market during hard times with unfavorable market institutions has a persistent, negative effect on young workers' subsequent employment. This paper analyzes hysteresis in youth unemployment by using a composite fixed-effect panel data model. Data sets for the age-cohort unemployment rate and for labor market institutions are constructed from OECD statistics from 21 advanced economies, including Korea, from 1985 to 2017, and are then readjusted to match with the peculiarities of the Korean market. In Korea, with a less-aggressive stance on active labor market policy spending, a male worker who experiences a one percentage point higher youth unemployment rate when he was 20- to 29-years-old has a 0.146 percentage point higher unemployment rate at the ages of 30-to 34-years-old and a 0.035 percentage point higher unemployment rate at the age of 35- to 39-years-old. These figures are larger than those in most countries that have more aggressive spending schemes. These findings point out that hysteresis in the Korean labor market can be mitigated by expanding active labor market policy spending more aggressively and more effectively.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.63 no.3
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• pp.187-211
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• 2011

This study examines the effects of active labor market policy on unemployment by pooled cross-section time series analysis utilizing panel data of 18 OECD countries, and seeks implications for improvements of the Korean active labor market policy. The results of the analysis are summarized as follows. First, active labor market policy negatively affects unemployment rates. Second, vacational training program among three major active labor market programs has a negative effect on unemployment rates. Third, employment service program and employment subsidy program have partially negative effects on unemployment rates. The implications for the Korean active labor market policy are as follows. First, it is necessary to expand and systematize active labor market policies. Second, vocational training programs should be systematized and professionalized according to labor demand. Third, employment subsidy programs need to be planned and carried out under the condition of minimizing a substitution effect, a displacement effect and a deadweight loss effect. Fourth, employment service programs need to be developed and carried out under the consideration of not only the reduction of unemployment rates but also the prevention of re-unemployment, mitigation of income inequality and improvement of productivity.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.89-127
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• 2010

This paper explores the causes and solutions of the problem that the official unemployment rate does not adequately represent the reality of the employment situation in Korea. First, compared to ILO's international standards, there are several differences in the measurement of unemployment in Korea, for example, the treatment of unpaid family workers working less than 18 hours per week, the classification of persons who are waiting for a new job or temporarily laid-off, and the criteria of job search activities. The questionnaire structure of the Labor Force Survey in Korea also misleads the judgment of economic activity state. Comparing the responses of the basic survey to those of the supplementing survey, approximately 90% of the responses show discrepancies and this indicates the possibility of misclassification. Next, this paper suggests the extended unemployment indicators as alternative, based on the current survey. The extended unemployment indicators support the presence of significant amounts of hidden unemployed and underemployed. And, it is found that the analyses using those indicators are very useful for the investigation of many aspects of employment dynamics.