• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.11
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• pp.41-46
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between unemployment and shadow economy for 7 selected ASEAN countries using panel data from 2000-2017. This study uses a sample of 7 ASEAN countries including Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam covering the 2000-2017 period. The stationarity of the variables is determined by Pesaran panel unit-root tests. The Westerlund panel co-integration technique is used to examine the long-run relationship among the variables. In addition, dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) methods are also employed. The DOLS and FMOLS results indicate that unemployment acts as an important driver for the increase in the shadow economy. In addition, the study results also reveal that GDP per capita has a negative impact on the shadow economy. Moreover, government expenditure, bank credit, and inflation are positively related to the shadow economy. The empirical results indicate that the size of the shadow economy is boosted by unemployment in the selected ASEAN economies. In addition, it is also evident that an increase of GDP per capita in the sample countries results in a lower shadow economy. Besides, government expenditure, bank credit, and inflation play a crucial role in the shadow economy.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.27-53
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• 2019

I employ search-and-matching to a multi-country and multi-sector Ricardian model with input-output linkages, trade in intermediate goods, and sectoral heterogeneity, in order to quantify the welfare effects from tariff changes. The paper shows that labor market frictions can be a source of comparative advantage in the sense that better labor market conditions contribute to lower cost in production. Labor market frictions play a critical role in determining the probability of exporting goods to trading partners, and interact with bilateral trade share, price, expenditures, etc. Unemployment and changes in unemployment rates due to tariff reductions contribute welfare changes across countries, implying that welfare effects based on quantitative trade models with full-employment are likely to be biased. I confirm the biased welfare effects by revisiting Caliendo and Parro (2015), who conduct an analysis of the welfare effects from the NAFTA from 1993 to 2005. I show that the welfare gap between theirs and mine has a positive correlation with changes in observed unemployment rates across countries. With the constructed model, I further conduct counterfactual exercises by asking what would happen if China's tariffs remain unchanged from 2006 to 2015. It turns out that there are mild welfare effects to trading partners in the world trading system.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.10
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• pp.39-48
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• 2022

This research aims to investigate the application of Keynes's theory in Indonesia, particularly in solving unemployment and poverty problems through government spending, economic growth, and human resource capacity. The basic concepts of the Keynesian theory were used as a method, through which government spending was harnessed toward economic growth in reducing unemployment and poverty rate. The analytical materials used were panel data for the 2017-2021 period in Central Java, Indonesia. The analytical methodology used was a multiple regression experimental design in selecting the best model according to Keynes's theory, especially for overcoming formidable problems. The main results showed that large Government spending program is ineffective in encouraging pro-growth, pro-job, pro-poor, and pro-equity development policy strategies. The causes of this failure include the violation of Keynes' assumptions about rationality and the low quality of education investment, which do not encourage productive and innovative entrepreneurship, as well as self-employment opportunities. As a result, government spending, including subsidies and direct financial assistance, used to implement the macroeconomic monetary, unstructured, and fiscal policy system is insufficient to significantly reduce the enormous difficulties. The main research results confirm that human capital capacity is the key to mitigating and reducing unemployment and poverty.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.1-24
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• 2015

We estimate the natural rate of Unemployment in Korea, using job finding and separation rates. The estimation results suggest that both job finding and separation rates of Korea have increased after the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. However, we don't find evidence of significant increase in the trend of the natural rate of unemployment. Overall our finding suggests that both job creation and destruction have increased.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.39-59
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• 2000

Given the constraint that the unemployment benefit is not allowed to vary freely over the unemployment duration, this paper examines the optimal UI benefit structure. In particular, identifying the conflicting effects of benefit amount and benefit duration upon incentive and insurance, this paper characterizes the optimal combination of UI benefit amount and duration. Based upon some important factors determining the optimal UI benefit structure that are derived from the model, a set of directions for UI reform in Korea have been proposed.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2009.11a
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• pp.387-397
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• 2009

In these OECD countries, left-wingers Government focus on unemployment, but right-wingers Government cares more about inflation. It is that inflation and unemployment don't have differential effects across rich and poor and the happiness levels of these two groups are unaffected by identity of the Government in power. The poor people choose to left-wingers Government, but rich people prefer to right-wingers Government. I estimate whether above opinion is correct or not. Especially I check how my results change when I control for aggregate economy activity and government consumption, two variables that could be correlated with inflation and unemployment and affect each Government's happiness differentially. This paper, and I believe much of the happiness literature, can be understood as an application of experienced utility, a conception that emphasis the pleasures derived from private consumption and sentiment of it. In Granger Causality test, private consumption sentiment index related with industrial production interactively in Korea. The business cycles affect on private consumption sentiment index.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.23-52
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• 2003

This study focus on unemployment and nonparticipation of youth. By dividing youth nonparticipants into 'house work and child care', 'studying and training', 'the others' categories, we estimate the potential wages with selectivity bias model and analyse the factors of choosing unemployment or nonparticipation with multinomial logit model. The differences between the potential market wage and the desired wage of the groups of 'studying and training', 'the others' in the nonparticipants are greater than those of the unemployment group. In the case of the man and lower age, and low schooling the differences of potential and desire wage are larger than woman and higher age, and high schooling. In the choice of unemployment and nonparticipation, man and higher age, and householder, and holder of qualification are not likely to opt nonparticipation. The experience of job lower the rate of probability to choose employment, but raise the rate of probability to choose unemployment and nonparticipation. These results mean that the quality of youth employment is very inferior.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.55-83
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• 2007

This paper examines the welfare aspects of loan-based self-insurance against unemployment, and discusses the scope of government intervention in its provision. This paper deals with these issues in a model where the individuals may experience unemployment shocks frequently to leave little savings for retirement, so that the government may have to provide them with unemployment and retirement insurance benefits during their unemployment and retirement, respectively. We identify the two interesting features in the model: the externality that the self-insurance exerts, upon other social insurances, and the incentive of private sector to provide loans that exerts the externality upon other social insurances. In particular, this paper shows that, although the inefficiency associated with private loan warrants the government provision of loans to unemployed workers, the over-incentive of the private sector to offer loans may reduce the scope of the government intervention. This paper also shows that, unless the inefficiency associated with private loans is high, the private incentive for loans would reduce welfare because of the externality generated by private loans.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.19 no.7
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• pp.423-442
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• 2018

This study observes the psychological changes of unemployed people according to their unemployment period. With this what psychological changes they face according to their unemployment period and what psychological characteristics they show, whether if psychological changes and job hunting activities are in relation, and whether if psychological changes affect job hunting activities. The study subjects received unemployment wage and were divided according to before employment, 1~3 months unemployed, and 4 months or more unemployed. An in-depth research of 8 people was conducted within the period of 2017.05~08. The psychological characteristics of people, in the period from when they first sense unemployment possibilities until three months of unemployment, are anger, anxiety, fear, which is a mixed characteristic that does not disappear but continues deepening. In study there was no significant difference in depression, anxiety, anger, social phobia, alcohol, religion factors, low self-esteem, and low self-efficacy in before employment, 1~3 months unemployed, and 4 months or more unemployed. However, the average levels of anger anxiety, depression, and social phobia were higher when the unemployment period was longer and the results of low self-esteem and low self-efficacy support further research.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.36
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• pp.229-257
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• 1998

In order to evaluate the effects of high unemployment rates on the income distribution and to find out mediative factors to these effect, the relationship between unemployment and income inequality in the industrialized countries and determinants of their relationship are analysized in this paper. Major findings from the analysis are these. First, changing pattern of unemployment rates are not similiar that of income inequality in the industrialized countries. This result suggests that relationships between unemployment and income inequality are dissimiliar within the industrialized countries. Second, results from analysis about relevant factors' effect on the relationship between unemployment and income inequality, the effects of economic factors such as economic growth rates and the scale of economy are not significant. But variables such as union density rates and scale of social welfare expenditure are found to have significant effects on the relationship between unemployment and income inequality. In fact, when the policy factors enters, the negative distributional effects of unemployment are lower by 50%. These results impliy that dissmilarities between the industrialized countries in the 1980s' changing patterns of income inequality are engendered from the union density rates and scale of social welfare expenditure. These findings in this paper suggest such a implication to the Korea; In order to achieve the more deserable society, policy orientations which give the priority to the economy restructuring rather than development of social welfare have to be reexamined and modified.