• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty quantification

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A Study on the Migration of Heavy Metals from Polycarbonate Food Contact Materials Using an Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) (식품용 폴리카보네이트 기구류 중 ICP-MS를 이용한 중금속 이행량 조사)

  • Park, Se-Jong;Park, So-Ra;Kim, MeeKyung;Choi, Jae Chun
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF PACKAGING SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.107-112
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the migration levels of lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd) and arsenic (As) from polycarbonate food contact materials into food simulant at different temperatures ($70^{\circ}C$ and $100^{\circ}C$). The method was validated by linearity of calibration curves, limit of detection (LOD), limit of quantification (LOQ), recovery, precision and uncertainty. All of 200 samples, including bottles, cups, containers, ladles, spoons and tongs were purchased from domestic markets and analyzed by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Mean concentrations of positive samples were higher at $100^{\circ}C$ than $70^{\circ}C$ as showing a dependency of migration temperature. The migration concentrations ranged from not-detected (ND) to $4.67{\mu}g/L$, ND to $0.49{\mu}g/L$L and ND to $2.91{\mu}g/L$ for Pb, Cd and As, respectively, which were far below the migration limits of Korea standards and specifications for food utensils, containers and packages.

A Propose on Seismic Performance Evaluation Model of Slope using Artificial Neural Network Technique (인공신경망 기법을 이용한 사면의 내진성능평가 모델 제안)

  • Kwag, Shinyoung;Hahm, Daegi
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.93-101
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    • 2019
  • The objective of this study is to develop a model which can predict the seismic performance of the slope relatively accurately and efficiently by using artificial neural network(ANN) technique. The quantification of such the seismic performance of the slope is not easy task due to the randomness and the uncertainty of the earthquake input and slope model. Under these circumstances, probabilistic seismic fragility analyses of slope have been carried out by several researchers, and a closed-form equation for slope seismic performance was proposed through a multiple linear regression analysis. However, a traditional statistical linear regression analysis has shown a limit that cannot accurately represent the nonlinearistic relationship between the slope of various conditions and seismic performance. In order to overcome these problems, in this study, we attempted to apply the ANN to generate prediction models of the seismic performance of the slope. The validity of the derived model was verified by comparing this with the conventional multi-linear and multi-nonlinear regression models. As a result, the models obtained through the ANN basically showed excellent performance in predicting the seismic performance of the slope, compared to the models obtained by the statistical regression analyses of the previous study.

Exposure Assessment of Heavy Metals Migrated from Glassware on the Korean Market (국내 유통 식품용 유리제의 중금속 노출 평가)

  • Kim, Eunbee;Hwang, Joung Boon;Lee, Jung Eun;Choi, Jae Chun;Park, Se-Jong;Lee, Jong Kwon
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF PACKAGING SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.15-21
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of our study was to investigate the migration level of lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), and barium (Ba) from glassware into a food simulant and to evaluate the exposure of each element. The test articles were glassware, including tableware, pots, and other containers. Pb, Cd, and Ba were analysed by Inductively Coupled Plasma Optical Emission Spectrometry (ICP-OES). The analytical performance of the method was validated in terms of its linearity, limit of detection (LOD), limit of quantification (LOQ), recovery, precision, and uncertainty. The monitoring was performed for 110 samples such as glass cups, containers, pots, and bottles. a food simulant. Migration test was conducted at 25? for 24 hours in a dark place using 4% acetic acid as a food simulant. Based on the data; exposure assessment was carried out to compare the estimated daily intake (EDI) to the human safety criteria. The risk levels of Pb and Ba determined in this study were approximately 1.9% and 0.3% of the provisional tolerable weekly intake (PTWI) and tolerable daily intake (TDI) value, respectively, thereby indicating a low exposure to the population.

Quantitative Deterioration and Maintenance Profiles of Typical Steel Bridges based on Response Surface Method (응답면 기법을 이용한 강교의 열화 및 보수보강 정량화 이력 모델)

  • Park, Seung-Hyun;Park, Kyung Hoon;Kim, Hee Joong;Kong, Jung-Sik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.6A
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    • pp.765-778
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    • 2008
  • Performance Profiles are essential to predict the performance variation over time for the bridge management system (BMS) based on risk management. In general, condition profiles based on experts opinion and/or visual inspection records have been used widely because obtaining profiles based on real performance is not easy. However, those condition profiles usually don't give a good consistency to the safety of bridges, causing practical problems for the effective bridge management. The accuracy of performance evaluation is directly related to the accuracy of BMS. The reliability of the evaluation is important to produce the optimal solution for distributing maintenance budget reasonably. However, conventional methods of bridge assessment are not suitable for a more sophisticated decision making procedure. In this study, a method to compute quantitative performance profiles has been proposed to overcome the limitations of those conventional models. In Bridge Management Systems, the main role of performance profiles is to compute and predict the performance of bridges subject to lifetime activities with uncertainty. Therefore, the computation time for obtaining an optimal maintenance scenario is closely related to the efficiency of the performance profile. In this study, the Response Surface Method (RSM) based on independent and important design variables is developed for the rapid computation. Steel box bridges have been investigated because the number of independent design variables can be reduced significantly due to the high dependency between design variables.

Development of Simultaneous Analysis for Multiple Agricultural Pesticides in Raw Milk Products using GC-MS/MS (GC-MS/MS를 이용한 원유 원료 중 농약 동시분석법 확립)

  • Young Nae Choi;Yoon ho Shin;Hwangeui Cho;Jung Bok Kim
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.38 no.6
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    • pp.420-429
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    • 2023
  • GC-MS/MS using liquid-liquid extraction (LLE) and C18 cartridges was used to identify and quantify levels of chlorpyrifos, chlorpyrifos-methyl, cypermethrin, deltamethrin and permethrin in bulk raw milk. A calibration curve spanning 10 ng/mL to 200 ng/mL was obtained with a satisfactory correlation coefficient of 0.99. The limits of detection (LOD) and limits of quantitation (LOQ) for chlorpyrifos, chlorpyrifos-methyl, cypermethrin, deltamethrin, and permethrin in the matrix ranged from 0.06 to 1.81 ng/mL and 0.19 to 6.04 ng/mL, respectively. The recoveries of 5 pesticides from spiked samples at 37.5-125 ng/mL ranged from 86.1 to 102.1%. The measurement of uncertainty of the GC-MS/MS method for these five pesticides was developed based on the analytical process and quantification. An analysis method that is easier and faster than the method specified in the Korean food standards codes for analyzing these five pesticides in raw material milk was developed. Moreover, the analytical method for chlorpyrifos, chlorpyrifos-methyl, cypermethrin, deltamethrin, and permethrin in bulk raw milk by GC-MS/MS was established.

The Study on the Priority of First Person Shooter game Elements using Delphi Methodology (FPS게임 구성요소의 중요도 분석방법에 관한 연구 1 -델파이기법을 이용한 독립요소의 계층설계와 검증을 중심으로-)

  • Bae, Hye-Jin;Kim, Suk-Tae
    • Archives of design research
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    • v.20 no.3 s.71
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    • pp.61-72
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    • 2007
  • Having started with "Space War", the first game produced by MIT in the 1960's, the gaming industry expanded rapidly and grew to a large size over a short period of time: the brand new games being launched on the market are found to contain many different elements making up a single content in that it is often called the 'the most comprehensive ultimate fruits' of the design technologies. This also translates into a large increase in the number of things which need to be considered in developing games, complicating the plans on the financial budget, the work force, and the time to be committed. Therefore, an approach for analyzing the elements which make up a game, computing the importance of each of them, and assessing those games to be developed in the future, is the key to a successful development of games. Many decision-making activities are often required under such a planning process. The decision-making task involves many difficulties which are outlined as follows: the multi-factor problem; the uncertainty problem impeding the elements from being "quantified" the complex multi-purpose problem for which the outcome aims confusion among decision-makers and the problem with determining the priority order of multi-stages leading to the decision-making process. In this study we plan to suggest AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) so that these problems can be worked out comprehensively, and logical and rational alternative plan can be proposed through the quantification of the "uncertain" data. The analysis was conducted by taking FPS (First Person Shooting) which is currently dominating the gaming industry, as subjects for this study. The most important consideration in conducting AHP analysis is to accurately group the elements of the subjects to be analyzed objectively, and arrange them hierarchically, and to analyze the importance through pair-wise comparison between the elements. The study is composed of 2 parts of analyzing these elements and computing the importance between them, and choosing an alternative plan. Among these this paper is particularly focused on the Delphi technique-based objective element analyzing and hierarchy of the FPS games.

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Study on the Methodology of the Microbial Risk Assessment in Food (식품중 미생물 위해성평가 방법론 연구)

  • 이효민;최시내;윤은경;한지연;김창민;김길생
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.319-326
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    • 1999
  • Recently, it is continuously rising to concern about the health risk being induced by microorganisms in food such as Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Listeria monocytogenes. Various organizations and regulatory agencies including U.S.FPA, U.S.DA and FAO/WHO are preparing the methodology building to apply microbial quantitative risk assessment to risk-based food safety program. Microbial risks are primarily the result of single exposure and its health impacts are immediate and serious. Therefore, the methodology of risk assessment differs from that of chemical risk assessment. Microbial quantitative risk assessment consists of tow steps; hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response assessment and risk characterization. Hazard identification is accomplished by observing and defining the types of adverse health effects in humans associated with exposure to foodborne agents. Epidemiological evidence which links the various disease with the particular exposure route is an important component of this identification. Exposure assessment includes the quantification of microbial exposure regarding the dynamics of microbial growth in food processing, transport, packaging and specific time-temperature conditions at various points from animal production to consumption. Dose-response assessment is the process characterizing dose-response correlation between microbial exposure and disease incidence. Unlike chemical carcinogens, the dose-response assessment for microbial pathogens has not focused on animal models for extrapolation to humans. Risk characterization links the exposure assessment and dose-response assessment and involve uncertainty analysis. The methodology of microbial dose-response assessment is classified as nonthreshold and thresh-old approach. The nonthreshold model have assumption that one organism is capable of producing an infection if it arrives at an appropriate site and organism have independence. Recently, the Exponential, Beta-poission, Gompertz, and Gamma-weibull models are using as nonthreshold model. The Log-normal and Log-logistic models are using as threshold model. The threshold has the assumption that a toxicant is produce by interaction of organisms. In this study, it was reviewed detailed process including risk value using model parameter and microbial exposure dose. Also this study suggested model application methodology in field of exposure assessment using assumed food microbial data(NaCl, water activity, temperature, pH, etc.) and the commercially used Food MicroModel. We recognized that human volunteer data to the healthy man are preferred rather than epidemiological data fur obtaining exact dose-response data. But, the foreign agencies are studying the characterization of correlation between human and animal. For the comparison of differences to the population sensitivity: it must be executed domestic study such as the establishment of dose-response data to the Korean volunteer by each microbial and microbial exposure assessment in food.

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The Analysis and Migration of Bisphenol A Related Compounds from Metal Food Cans (식품용 금속 캔으로부터 비스페놀 A 관련 물질들의 분석 및 이행 연구)

  • Park, Se-Jong;Park, So-Ra;Choi, Jae Chun;Kim, MeeKyung
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.329-335
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    • 2017
  • Analysis method was presented for the simultaneous determination of nine bisphenol A related compounds such as bisphenol A (BPA), phenol, p-tert-butylphenol, bisphenol A diglycidyl ether (BADGE), $BADGE{\cdot}2H_2O$, $BADGE{\cdot}2HCl$, bisphenol F diglycidyl ether (BFDGE), $BFDGE{\cdot}2H_2O$ and $BFDGE{\cdot}2HCl$ migrated from inner coatings of metal food cans by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with fluorescence detection. The method was validated by examining the linearity of calibration curve, the limit of detection (LOD), the limit of quantification (LOQ), recovery and uncertainty. The migration tests of nine BPA related compounds were carried out with four food simulants; deionized water (DW), 4% acetic acid, 50% ethanol and n-heptane. There was not any compound detected in DW, 4% acetic acid and 50% ethanol at $60^{\circ}C$ for 30 min and n-heptane at $25^{\circ}C$ for 60 min. BPA and phenol were migrated into 4% acetic acid and 50% ethanol at $95^{\circ}C$ for 30 min. The concentrations were ranged from 0 to $10.77{\mu}g/L$ of BPA and from 0 to $2.35{\mu}g/L$ of phenol. Canned foodstuffs mostly have long-term shelf life. We investigated migration of nine BPA related compounds according to the variation in storage periods (0~90 days) and temperatures (4, 25 and $60^{\circ}C$). All compounds were not founded during 90 days at $4^{\circ}C$ and $25^{\circ}C$, respectively. However BPA and $BADGE{\cdot}2H_2O$ were founded in DW and 4% acetic acid at $60^{\circ}C$. The migration levels of BPA and $BADGE{\cdot}2H_2O$ were close to the value of LOQ, respectively and did not change significantly as storage period. It was founded from results that the migration of BPA related compounds from metal food cans was controlled to a safe level.

Monitoring of Heavy Metals Migrated from Glassware, Ceramics, Enamelware, and Earthenware (유리제, 도자기제, 법랑 및 옹기류 재질의 식품용 기구 및 용기·포장의 중금속 이행량 모니터링)

  • Cho, Kyung Chul;Jo, Ye-Eun;Park, So-Yeon;Park, Yongchjun;Park, Se-Jong;Lee, Hye Young
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.23-30
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    • 2020
  • This study investigated the migration levels of lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), and arsenic (As) from food contact articles (glassware, ceramics, enamelware, and earthenware) into a food stimulant (4% v/v, acetic acid). Migration tests were performed at 25℃ for 24 h and all analyses were performed using Inductively-Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS). The method was validated by linearity of calibration curves, limit of detection (LOD), limit of quantification (LOQ), recovery, precision, and uncertainty. In glassware, the migration concentrations ranged from not-detected (N.D.) to 752.21 ㎍/L and N.D. to 1.99 ㎍/L for Pb and Cd, respectively. In ceramics, the migration concentrations ranged from N.D. to 1,955.86 ㎍/L, N.D. to 74.06 ㎍/L, and N.D. to 302.40 ㎍/L for Pb, Cd, and As, respectively. In enamelware, the migration concentrations ranged from N.D. to 4.48 ㎍/L, N.D. to 7.00 ㎍/L, and N.D. to 52.00 ㎍/L for Pb, Cd, and Sb, respectively. In earthenware, the migration concentrations ranged from N.D. to 13.68 ㎍/L, N.D. to 0.04 ㎍/L, and N.D. to 6.71 ㎍/L for Pb, Cd, and As, respectively. All results were below the migration limits of Korea standards and specifications for food utensils, containers, and packages.

Effects of Motion Correction for Dynamic $[^{11}C]Raclopride$ Brain PET Data on the Evaluation of Endogenous Dopamine Release in Striatum (동적 $[^{11}C]Raclopride$ 뇌 PET의 움직임 보정이 선조체 내인성 도파민 유리 정량화에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Jae-Sung;Kim, Yu-Kyeong;Cho, Sang-Soo;Choe, Yearn-Seong;Kang, Eun-Joo;Lee, Dong-Soo;Chung, June-Key;Lee, Myung-Chul;Kim, Sang-Eun
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.413-420
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    • 2005
  • Purpose: Neuroreceptor PET studies require 60-120 minutes to complete and head motion of the subject during the PET scan increases the uncertainty in measured activity. In this study, we investigated the effects of the data-driven head mutton correction on the evaluation of endogenous dopamine release (DAR) in the striatum during the motor task which might have caused significant head motion artifact. Materials and Methods: $[^{11}C]raclopride$ PET scans on 4 normal volunteers acquired with bolus plus constant infusion protocol were retrospectively analyzed. Following the 50 min resting period, the participants played a video game with a monetary reward for 40 min. Dynamic frames acquired during the equilibrium condition (pre-task: 30-50 min, task: 70-90 min, post-task: 110-120 min) were realigned to the first frame in pre-task condition. Intra-condition registrations between the frames were performed, and average image for each condition was created and registered to the pre-task image (inter-condition registration). Pre-task PET image was then co-registered to own MRI of each participant and transformation parameters were reapplied to the others. Volumes of interest (VOI) for dorsal putamen (PU) and caudate (CA), ventral striatum (VS), and cerebellum were defined on the MRI. Binding potential (BP) was measured and DAR was calculated as the percent change of BP during and after the task. SPM analyses on the BP parametric images were also performed to explore the regional difference in the effects of head motion on BP and DAR estimation. Results: Changes in position and orientation of the striatum during the PET scans were observed before the head motion correction. BP values at pre-task condition were not changed significantly after the intra-condition registration. However, the BP values during and after the task and DAR were significantly changed after the correction. SPM analysis also showed that the extent and significance of the BP differences were significantly changed by the head motion correction and such changes were prominent in periphery of the striatum. Conclusion: The results suggest that misalignment of MRI-based VOI and the striatum in PET images and incorrect DAR estimation due to the head motion during the PET activation study were significant, but could be remedied by the data-driven head motion correction.