• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty modelling

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Development of Back Analysis Program for Total Management Using Observational Method of Earth Retaining Structures under Ground Excavation (지반굴착 흙막이공의 정보화시공 종합관리를 위한 역해석 프로그램 개발)

  • 오정환;조철현;김성재;백영식
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2001.10c
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    • pp.103-122
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    • 2001
  • For prediction of ground movement per the excavation step, observational results of ground movement during the construction was very different with prediction during the analysis of design. step because of the uncertainty of the numerical analysis modelling, the soil parameter, and the condition of a construction field, etc. however accuratly numerical analysis method was applied. Therefore, the management system through the construction field measurement should be achieved for grasping the situation during the excavation. Until present, the measurement system restricted by ‘Absolute Value Management system’only analyzing the stability of present step was executed. So, it was difficult situation to expect the prediction of ground movement for the next excavation step. In this situation, it was developed that ‘The Management system TOMAS-EXCAV’ consisted of ‘Absolute value management system’ analyzing the stability of present step and ‘Prediction management system’ expecting the ground movement of next excavation step and analyzing the stability of next excavation step by‘Back Analysis’. TOMAS-EXCAV could be applied to all uncertainty of earth retaining structures analysis by connecting ‘Forward analysis program’ and ‘Back analysis program’ and optimizing the main design variables using SQP-MMFD optimization method through measurement results. The application of TOMAS-EXCAV was confirmed that verifed the three earth retaing construction field by back analysis.

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TOLERANT FUZZY PATTERN MATCHING : AN INTRODUCTION

  • DUBOIS, DIDIER;PRADE, HENRI
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.3-17
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    • 1993
  • The fuzzy pattern matching technique has been developed in the framework of fuzzy set and possibility theory in order to take into account the imprecision and the uncertainty pervading values which have to be compared to requirements (which may be fuzzy) in a pattern matching process. This paper restates the basic principles and extends them to situations where (sub)patterns are only required to be satisfied up to a given tolerance (which may be fuzzy), or where the different subparts of a compound pattern may have various levels of importance. Both cases correspond to a weakening of elementary patterns. which can be expressed by a fuzzy relations modelling an approximate equality or an uncertain strict equality respectively. We also study the more sophisticated case where some elementary patterns have not to be satisfied with the highest priority provided that weaker requirements remain satisfied. The fuzzy pattern matching technique applies in a variety of problems including the evaluation of soft queries with respect to a fuzzy database, the evaluation of the fuzzy condition parts of rules in approximate reasoning, or the evaluation of the belonging of an ill-known object to a flexible class in classification problems.

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Probabilistic-based assessment of composite steel-concrete structures through an innovative framework

  • Matos, Jose C.;Valente, Isabel B.;Cruz, Paulo J.S.;Moreira, Vicente N.
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.1345-1368
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    • 2016
  • This paper presents the probabilistic-based assessment of composite steel-concrete structures through an innovative framework. This framework combines model identification and reliability assessment procedures. The paper starts by describing current structural assessment algorithms and the most relevant uncertainty sources. The developed model identification algorithm is then presented. During this procedure, the model parameters are automatically adjusted, so that the numerical results best fit the experimental data. Modelling and measurement errors are respectively incorporated in this algorithm. The reliability assessment procedure aims to assess the structure performance, considering randomness in model parameters. Since monitoring and characterization tests are common measures to control and acquire information about those parameters, a Bayesian inference procedure is incorporated to update the reliability assessment. The framework is then tested with a set of composite steel-concrete beams, which behavior is complex. The experimental tests, as well as the developed numerical model and the obtained results from the proposed framework, are respectively present.

Application of Best Estimate Approach for Modelling of QUENCH-03 and QUENCH-06 Experiments

  • Kaliatka, Tadas;Kaliatka, Algirdas;Vileiniskis, Virginijus
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.419-433
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    • 2016
  • One of the important severe accident management measures in the Light Water Reactors is water injection to the reactor core. The related phenomena are investigated by performing experiments and computer simulations. One of the most widely known is the QUENCH test-program. A number of analyses on QUENCH tests have also been performed by different computer codes for code validation and improvements. Unfortunately, any deterministic computer simulation is not free from the uncertainties. To receive the realistic calculation results, the best estimate computer codes should be used for the calculation with combination of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of calculation results. In this article, the QUENCH-03 and QUENCH-06 experiments are modelled using ASTEC and RELAP/SCDAPSIM codes. For the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, SUSA3.5 and SUNSET tools were used. The article demonstrates that applying the best estimate approach, it is possible to develop basic QUENCH input deck and to develop the two sets of input parameters, covering maximal and minimal ranges of uncertainties. These allow simulating different (but with the same nature) tests, receiving calculation results with the evaluated range of uncertainties.

Uncertainty Analysis of Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse Model(NSRPM) Based on Bayesian Modelling (Bayesian 기법을 활용한 Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse 모형의 불확실성 분석)

  • Kim, Jang-Gyeong;Ban, Woo-Sik;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.79-79
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    • 2017
  • 강우 자료는 수공구조물 설계목적에 따라 다양한 시공간적 범주가 필요하다. 그러나 시간단위 이하 시계열 강우자료는 미계측 유역 및 관측연한 등의 제약으로 연속적인 시계열을 확보하는데 어려움이 있다. 이러한 점에서 포아송분포 기반 강우발생모형은 강우시계열의 통계적 특성을 나타내는 5개 매개변수로 다양한 시간 범주의 연속강우시계열을 생성할 수 있다는 장점이 있다. 강우발생모의 핵심은 과거자료의 통계특성을 효과적으로 복원할 수 있어야 하며, 다양한 기상학적 특성들 또한 적절하게 모의될 수 있어야 한다는 점이다. 즉, 다음과 같은 기준으로 모의적합성을 평가할 수 있다. 첫째, 지속기간별 관측시계열과 모의시계열의 통계적 유사성을 평가하고, 둘째, 확률분포를 따르는 각 매개변수의 사후분포를 제시하여 불확실성을 정량화하고, 셋째, 추정된 매개변수의 물리적 범위의 적정성 검토가 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 강우발생모형으로 널리 알려진 Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse(NSRP) 모형과 Bayesian 모형을 연계한 Bayesian NSRP 모형 개발을 통해 강우관측소 전지점에 대한 매개변수 지도를 제시하고자 한다. 본 연구결과는 임의 유역에 대한 강우발생 시나리오를 제공하여, 다양한 형태의 유출결과를 도출할 수 있으며, 무엇보다 유출결과를 확률적으로 평가할 수 있다는 장점이 있다.

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GA-LADRC based control for course keeping applied to a mariner class vessel (GA-LADRC를 이용한 Mariner class vessel의 선수각 제어)

  • Jong-Kap AHN
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.59 no.2
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    • pp.145-154
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    • 2023
  • In this study, to control the heading angle of a ship, which is constantly subjected to various internal and external disturbances during the voyage, an LADRC (linear active disturbance rejection control) design that focuses more on improving the disturbance removal performance was proposed. The speed rate of change of the ship's heading angle due to the turn of the rudder angle was selected as a significant factor, and the nonlinear model of the ship's maneuvering equation, including the steering gear, was treated as a total disturbance. It is the similar process with an LADRC design for the first-order transfer function model. At this time, the gains of the controller included in LADRC and the gains of the extended state observer were tuned to RCGAs (real-coded genetic algorithms) to minimize the integral time-weighted absolute error as an evaluation function. The simulation was performed by applying the proposed GA-LADRC controller to the heading angle control of the Mariner class vessel. In particular, it was confirmed that the proposed controller satisfactorily maintains and follows the set course even when the disturbances such as nonlinearity, modelling error, uncertainty and noise of the measurement sensor are considered.

Uncertainty Quantification of Propulsion System on Early Stage of Design (추진체계 개념설계단계에서 불확실성 고려방법에 대한 연구)

  • Ahn, Joongki;Um, Ki-in;Lee, Ho-il
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.258-265
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    • 2017
  • At the early stage of the development of high speed propulsion systems, the designers suffer from the lack of both the quantity and the quality of test data. In that situation, the associated uncertainties could not be modeled as probabilistic distribution since probabilistic modelling requires large amount of data. In this paper, instead, the information provided by experts based on their experience and engineering knowledge was used to model uncertainty using the evidence theory. In designing the DCR(Dual Combustion Ramjet) engine, the combustion efficiencies, not well understood and little data existing, are assumed to have been provided by experts. And the uncertainties are quantified by Evidence theory. The quantified uncertainties are incorporated into the optimization. The design variables, area of inlet and area of combustor exit, have been found while satisfying reliability margins of thrust and thermal choking. The results show a reasonable design of the engine under the uncertain circumstances.

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An Orbit Robust Control Based on Linear Matrix Inequalities

  • Prieto, D.;Bona, B.
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2004.08a
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    • pp.454-459
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    • 2004
  • This paper considers the problem of satellite's orbit control and a solution based in Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMI) is proposed for the case of Low Earth Orbiters (LEO). In particular, the modelling procedure and the algorithm for control law synthesis are tested using as study case the European Gravity Field and Ocean Circulation Explorer satellite (GOCE), to be launched by the European Space Agency (ESA) in the year 2006. The scientific objective of this space mission is the recovering of the Earth gravity field with high accuracy (less than 10${\mu}m$/${\mu}m$) and spatial resolution (better than 100km). In order to meet these scientific requirements, the orbit control must guarantee stringent specifications in terms of environmental disturbances attenuation (atmospheric drag forces) even in presence of high levels of model uncertainty.

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Performance Improvement for an Electromagnetic Suspension System Using Variable Structure Control (가변 구조 제어를 이용한 상전도 흡인식 자기 부상 시스템의 성능 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jeong-Uk;Lee, Sang-Bin;Lee, In-Ho;Yoo, Ji-Yoon
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1997.07f
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    • pp.2174-2176
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    • 1997
  • The purpose of this paper is to improve tracking performance for an EMS system using variable structure control. To improve current control of characteristics and to reduce chattering, a reaching law is applied. A disturbance observer using sliding observer is designed to compensate the influence of disturbances. This observer compensates modelling uncertainty and steady state error as well as external disturbance. The effectiveness of the proposed control scheme is demonstrated by experiments

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Vibration Control of a Composite Plate with Piezoelectric Sensor and Actuator (압전센서와 액츄에이터를 이용한 복합재 평판의 진동제어)

  • 권대규;유기호;이성철
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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    • 2002.05a
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    • pp.207-210
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    • 2002
  • This paper is concerned with the experiments on the active vibration control of a plate with piezoceramic sensors and actuators. The natural frequencies of the composite plate featured by a piezo-film sensor and piezo-ceramic actuator are calculated by using the modal analysis method. Modal coordinates are introduced to obtain the state equations of the structural system. Six natural frequencies were considered in the modelling, because robust control theory which has inherent robustness to structured uncertainty is adopted to suppress the transients vibrations of a glass fiber reinforced(GFR) composite beam. A robust controller satisfying the nominal performance and robust performance is designed using robust theory based on the structured singular value. Simulations were carried out with the designed controller and effectiveness of the robust control strategy was verified by results.

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