• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty management

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Uncertainty, Corporate Investment and the Role of Conservative Financial Reporting: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

  • FATIMA, Huma;RANA, Sahar Latif;HAFEEZ, Abida
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.231-243
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    • 2022
  • The objective of this study is to analyze the impact of conservative financial reporting on investment during uncertainty. It was assumed that during uncertainty conservative financial reporting can play an important role to improve investment decision-making. For our analysis, data sets from 2005-2020 of nonfinancial companies are used. To measure the impact of conservative financial reporting in the non-financial sector of Pakistan, Khan and Watts' (2009) model is applied. "Prospector" and "Defender" Business strategy is applied for measuring firm-level uncertainty. Investment is measured by adding the change in fixed assets (property, plant, and equipment). To check the robustness of conservative financial reporting, Givoly and Hayn's (2000) Negative Accruals measure is applied. To measure the robustness of uncertainty, environmental scanning and alertness technique is applied. According to environmental scanning and alertness technique, companies are divided into two groups named 'inert' and 'alert'. 'Inert' are those firms that are not scanning their environment, and 'alert' are those firms who continuously analyze their environment. The empirical estimations support our hypothesis. The empirical findings provide the proof that in the wake of uncertainty conservative financial reporting may facilitate to take optimal investment decisions in the developing economy of Pakistan. Our results provide critical and practical implications for investors, researchers, and standard setters.

The Impacts of Requirement Uncertainty and Standardization on Software Project Performance : A Comparison of Korea and USA (요구사항 불확실성과 표준화가 소프트웨어 프로젝트 성과에 미치는 영향 : 한국과 미국의 비교연구)

  • 나관식
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.15-27
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    • 2004
  • Most software projects inevitably involve various types and degrees of uncertainty. Without proper risk assessment and coordination, software projects can easily run out of control and consume significant additional resource. Thus, risk management techniques are critical issues to information system researchers. Previous empirical studies of U.S. software firms support the adoption of development standardization and user requirement analysis techniques in risk-based software project management. Using data collected from software projects developed in Korea during 1999-2000, we conduct a comparative study to determine how risk management strategies impact software product and process performance in countries with dissimilar IT capabilities. In addition, we offer an alternative conceptualization of residual performance risk. We show that the use of residual performance risk as an intervening variable is inappropriate in IT developing countries like Korea where the role of late stage risk control remedies are critical. A revised model is proposed that generates more reliable empirical implications for Korean software projects.

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Research Issues in Robust QFD

  • Kim, Kwang-Jae;Kim, Deok-Hwan
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.93-100
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    • 2008
  • Quality function deployment (QFD) provides a specific approach for ensuring quality throughout each stage of the product development and production process. Since the focus of QFD is placed on the early stage of product development, the uncertainty in the input information of QFD is inevitable. If the uncertainty is neglected, the QFD analysis results are likely to be misleading. It is necessary to equip practitioners with a new QFD methodology that can model, analyze, and dampen the effects of the uncertainty and variability in a systematic manner. Robust QFD is an extended version of QFD methodology, which is robust to the uncertainty of the input information and the resulting variability of the QFD output. This paper discusses recent research issues in Robust QFD. The major issues are related with the determination of overall priority, robustness evaluation, robust prioritization, and web-based Robust QFD optimizer. Our recent research results on the issues are presented, and some of future research topics are suggested.

Consideration of Uncertainty in input information of QFD (품질기능전개에서 입력정보의 불확실성에 대한 고찰)

  • Kim, Deok-Hwan;Kim, Gwang-Jae;Min, Dae-Gi
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2005.05a
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    • pp.566-573
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    • 2005
  • Quality function deployment (QFD) is a useful tool for ensuring quality throughout each stage of the product development and production process. Since the focus of QFD is placed on the early stage, the uncertainty in the input information of QFD is inevitable. If the uncertainty is neglected, the QFD analysis results are likely to be misleading. This paper classifies the sources of uncertainty in QFD, and proposes a new approach to model and analyze the effects of uncertainty in QFD.

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Uncertainty Analysis of the Risk of Hydraulic Structures Using Generalized Logistic Distribution (Generalized Logistic 분포형을 이용한 수공구조물의 위험도에 대한 불확실성 해석)

  • Shin, Hong-Joon;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.758-763
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    • 2006
  • Statistical concepts and methods are routinely utilized in a number of design and management problems in engineering hydrology. This is because most of hydrological processes have some degree of randomness and uncertainty. Thus, the concepts of risk and uncertainty are commonly utilized for designing and evaluating hydraulic structures such as spillways and dikes. Therefore, in this study, uncertainty analysis considering the variance of design floods is performed to evaluate the uncertainty of the hydrologic risk of flood related hydraulic structures using frequency analysis.

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Uncertainty of Water Supply in Agricultural Reservoirs Considering the Climate Change (미래 기후변화에 따른 농업용 저수지 용수공급의 불확실성)

  • Nam, Won-Ho;Hong, Eun-Mi;Choi, Jin-Yong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.56 no.2
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    • pp.11-23
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    • 2014
  • The impact and adaption on agricultural water resources considering climate change is significant for reservoirs. The change in rainfall patterns and hydrologic factors due to climate change increases the uncertainty of agricultural water supply and demand. The quantitative evaluation method of uncertainty based on agricultural water resource management under future climate conditions is a major concern. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the vulnerability management technique for agricultural water supply based on a probabilistic and stochastic risk evaluation theory. The objective of this study was to analyse the uncertainty of water resources under future climate change using probability distribution function of water supply in agricultural reservoir and demand in irrigation district. The uncertainty of future water resources in agricultural reservoirs was estimated using the time-specific analysis of histograms and probability distributions parameter, for example the location and the scale parameter. According to the uncertainty analysis, the future agricultural water supply and demand in reservoir tends to increase the uncertainty by the low consistency of the results. Thus, it is recommended to prepare a resonable decision making on water supply strategies in terms of using climate change scenarios that reflect different future development conditions.

Measurement Uncertainty of Nicotine in Environmental Tobacco Smoke (ETS)

  • Lee, Jeong-Il;Lee, Cheol Min;Shim, In-Keun;Kim, Seong-Mi;Lee, Woo-Seok;Kim, Yoon-Shin
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.34 no.8
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    • pp.2394-2398
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    • 2013
  • Nicotine is the main component of environmental tobacco smoke, and its presence in indoor air is widely used as a secondhand-smoke indicator. Environmental tobacco smoke is a major source of indoor air pollution, but sufficient investigation of the uncertainty of its measurement, which mirrors the reliability of nicotine measurement, has not been performed. We calculated the uncertainty of measurement of indoor air nicotine concentration at low, medium, and high concentrations of 11.3798, 10.1977, $98.3768{\mu}g/m^3$, respectively, and we employed the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurements (GUM), proposed by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO). The factors considered in determining the uncertainty were uncertainty of the calibration curve (calibration curve and repeated measurements), desorption efficiency, extraction volume, and sampling airflow (accuracy and acceptable limits of flowmeter). The measurement uncertainty was highest at low concentrations; the expanded measurement uncertainty is $0.9435{\mu}g/m^3$ and is represented as a relative uncertainty of 63.38%. At medium and high (concentrations, the relative uncertainty was 13.1% and 9.1%, respectively. The uncertainty of the calibration curve was largest for low indoor nicotine concentrations. To increase reliability of measurement in assessing the effect of secondhand smoke, measures such as increasing the sample injection rate ($1{\mu}L$ or more), increasing sampling volume to increase collected nicotine, and using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC/MS) or GC/MS/MS, which has a lower quantitation threshold, rather than gas chromatography with nitrogen phosphorous detector, should be considered.

The Effects of Requirement Uncertainty, Control Standardization, Interactions on Software Quality (요구사항 불확실성, 통제 표준화, 상호작용이 소프트웨어 품질에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Ki-Yoon;Na, Kwan-Sik;Yang, Dong-Gu
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.101-120
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    • 2002
  • Risk management or risk-based approach of software project management was developed to explain the effects of requirement uncertainty, control standardization, interactions on software quality. Based on a prior theory, five hypotheses were derived and empirically tested using a survey design. Data from 117 members in 3 SI companies support for the path model, and three of five hypotheses. The results showed that decreases in requirement uncertainty and increases in control standardization were directly associated with increases in the interactions between user and project teams, which, in turn, led to increases software quality. The findings suggested that the direct effect on software quality is primarily due to the interactions between user and project teams, rather than requirement uncertainty and control standardization.

Evaluating Schedule Uncertainty in Unit-Based Repetitive Building Projects

  • Okmen, Onder
    • Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.21-34
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    • 2013
  • Various risk factors affect construction projects. Due to the uncertainties created by risk factors, actual activity durations frequently deviate from the estimated durations in either favorable or adverse direction. For this reason, evaluation of schedule uncertainty is required to make decisions accurately when managing construction projects. In this regard, this paper presents a new computer simulation model - the Repetitive Schedule Risk Analysis Model (RSRAM) - to evaluate unit-based repetitive building project schedules under uncertainty when activity durations and risk factors are correlated. The proposed model utilizes Monte Carlo Simulation and a Critical Path Method based repetitive scheduling procedure. This new procedure concurrently provides the utilization of resources without interruption and the maintenance of network logic through successive units. Furthermore, it enables assigning variable production rates to the activities from one unit to another and any kind of relationship type with or without lag time. Details of the model are described and an example application is presented. The findings show that the model produces realistic results regarding the extent of uncertainty inherent in the schedule.

Perceived Uncertainty and Perceived Usefulness of Intranet in the Restaurant Franchise Industry

  • Lee, Hwan-Eui;Cho, Sun-Gu;Hyun, Sung-Hyup
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.123-129
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    • 2011
  • The restaurant franchise industry is one that could benefit significantly from the use of intranet technology, from its potential for improving communications between franchisors and franchisees, to providing easier inventory and ordering processes. However, there is a level of trepidation among potential users about whether the technology would improve their work performance. This study sought to examine the relationships between perceived uncertainty and perceived usefulness of intranet technology in the restaurant franchise industry. Through a review of available literature, 10 sub-dimensions of perceived uncertainty (Duncan, 1972) and six sub-dimensions of perceived usefulness (Davis, 1989) were derived. Canonical correlation analysis was used to examine the relationships between these concepts using data collected from 163 franchising restaurant managers in South Korea. Findings from the data analysis demonstrates two negative factors and one positive factor in perceived uncertainty that influence perceived usefulness, thus offering some implications of what to consider when implementing an intranet system in a restaurant franchise.

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