• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty management

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A Study of Policy Change on K-ETS and its Objective Conformity (한국 배출권거래제 정책 변동의 목적 부합성 연구)

  • Oh, Il-Young;Yoon, Young Chai
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.325-342
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    • 2018
  • The Korea Emissions Trading Scheme ( K-ETS), which manages roughly 70% of the greenhouse gas emissions in South Korea, was initiated in 2015, after implementation of its 1st basic plan and the 1st allocation plan (2014) for the 1st phase (2015-2017). During the three and a half years since the launch of K-ETS, there have been critical policy change such as adjustment of the institutions involved, development and revision of the 2030 national GHG reduction roadmap, and change in the allocation plans. Moreover, lack of liquidity and fluctuation of carbon prices in the K-ETS market during this period has forced the Korean government to adjust the flexibility mechanism and auction permits of the market stability reserve. To evaluate the policy change in the K-ETS regarding conformance to its objectives, this study defines three objectives (Environmental Effectiveness, Cost Effectiveness and Economic Efficiency) and ten indicators. Evaluation of Environmental Effectiveness of K-ETS suggests that the national GHG reduction roadmap, coverage of GHG emitters and credibility of MRV positively affect GHG mitigation. However, there was a negative policy change implemented in 2017 that weakened the emission cap during the 1st phase. In terms of the Cost Effectiveness, the K-ETS policies related to market management and flexibility mechanism (e.g. banking, borrowing and offsets) were improved to deal with the liquidity shortage and permit price increase, which were caused by policy uncertainty and conservative behavior of firms during 2016-2018. Regarding Economic Efficiency, K-ETS expands benchmark?based allocation and began auction-based allocation; nevertheless, free allocation is being applied to sectors with high carbon leakage risk during the 2nd phase (2018-2020). As a result, it is worth evaluating the K-ETS policies that have been developed with respect to the three main objectives of ETS, considering the trial?and?error approach that has been followed since 2015. This study suggests that K-ETS policy should be modified to strengthen the emission cap, stabilize the market, expand auction-based allocation and build K-ETS specified funds during the 3rd phase (2021-2025).

Relationship between Corporate Governance and CSR Fit (기업지배구조와 기업의 사회적 책임 적합성에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Ji Hyon;Shin, Hyung-Deok
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.104-112
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    • 2019
  • This study has empirically analyzed how far corporate governance and CSR(Corporate Social Responsibility) fit are related based on prior research indicating that corporate governance is one of the primary factors. Previous research suggested that there may be different types of CSR fit, but there have been only limited number of empirical studies. This study filled this gap by categorizing CSR fit into three types (functional fit, target fit, and size fit) and investigating whether different types have different effects. We used data from the Corporate Social Responsibility White Paper for the 2009-2012 period, as well as the Korea Corporate Governance Service (KCGS) index. As a result, we found that there is a negative (-) relationship between corporate governance and CSR fit(${\beta}=-.023$, p<.05). This can be interpreted that companies with weak corporate governance are attempting to increase the trust level of stakeholders and to reduce the uncertainty of CSR through high-CSR-fitted programs. The test results showed that functional fit and target fit both had negative (-) relationships with corporate governance (${\beta}=-.021$, p<.05; ${\beta}=-.016$, p<.1), while size fit did not have a significant correlation with corporate governance (${\beta}=-.005$, p=.511). The results of this study supported the previous studies' suggestions that CSR fit has different effects on each type, indicating a need for further reflection on the relationship between corporate governance and CSR fit. Also, the results of this study showed that corporations should take a strategic approach to operating CSR fit.

A Study on Development of Reliability Assessment of GHG-CAPSS (GHG-CAPSS 신뢰도 평가 방법 개발을 위한 연구)

  • Kim, Hye Rim;Kim, Seung Do;Hong, Yu Deok;Lee, Su Bin;Jung, Ju Young
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.2 no.3
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    • pp.203-219
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    • 2011
  • Greenhouse gas(GHG) inventories were reported recently in various fields. It, however, has been rarely to mention about the accuracy and reliability of the GHG inventory results. Some reliable assessment methods were introduced to judge the accuracy of the GHG inventory results. It is, hence, critical to develop an evaluation methodology. This project was designed 1) to develop evaluation methodology for reliability of inventory results by GHG-CAPSS, 2) to check the feasibility of the developed evaluation methodology as a result of applying this methodology to two emission sources: liquid fossil fuel and landfill, and 3) to construct the technical roadmap for future role of GHG-CAPSS. Qualitative and quantitative assessment methodologies were developed to check the reliability and accuracy of the inventory results. Qualitative assessment methodology was designed to evaluate the accuracy and reliability of estimation methods of GHG emissions from emission and sink sources, activity data, emission factor, and quality management schemes of inventory results. On the other hand, quantitative assessment methodology was based on the uncertainty assessment of emission results. According to the results of applying the above evaluation methodologies to two emission sources, those seem to be working properly. However, it is necessary to develop source-specific rating systems because emission and sink sources exhibit source-specific characteristics of GHG emissions and sinks.

Simulation of land use changes in Hanam city using an object-based cellular automata model (객체기반 셀룰러오토마타 모형을 이용한 하남시 토지이용변화 모의)

  • KIM, Il-Kwon;KWON, Hyuk-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.202-217
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    • 2018
  • Urban land use changes by human activities affect spatial configuration of urban areas and their surrounding ecosystems. Although it is necessary to identify patterns of urban land use changes and to simulate future changes for sustainable urban management, simulation of land use changes is still challenging due to their uncertainty and complexity. Cellular automata model is widely used to simulate urban land use changes based on cell-based approaches. However, cell-based models can not reflect features of actual land use changes and tend to simulate fragmented patterns. To solve these problems, object-based cellular automata models are developed, which simulate land use changes by land patches. This study simulate future land use changes in Hanam city using an object-based cellular automata model. Figure of merit of the model is 24.1%, which assess accuracy of the simulation results. When a baseline scenario was applied, urban decreased by 16.4% while agriculture land increased by 9.0% and grass increased by 19.3% in a simulation result of 2038 years. In an urban development scenario, urban increased by 22.4% and agriculture land decreased by 26.1% while forest and grass did not have significant changes. In a natural conservation scenario, urban decreased by 29.5% and agriculture land decreased by 8.8% while each forest and grass increased by 6% and 42.8%. The model can be useful to simulate realistic urban land use change effectively, and then, applied as a decision support tool for spatial planning.

Preliminary Evaluation of Domestic Applicability of Deep Borehole Disposal System (심부시추공 처분시스템의 국내적용 가능성 예비 평가)

  • Lee, Jongyoul;Lee, Minsoo;Choi, Heuijoo;Kim, Kyungsu;Cho, Dongkeun
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.491-505
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    • 2018
  • As an alternative to deep geological disposal technology, which is considered as a reference concept, the domestic applicability of deep borehole disposal technology for high level radioactive waste, including spent fuel, has been preliminarily evaluated. Usually, the environment of deep borehole disposal, at a depth of 3 to 5 km, has more stable geological and geo-hydrological conditions. For this purpose, the characteristics of rock distribution in the domestic area were analyzed and drilling and investigation technologies for deep boreholes with large diameter were evaluated. Based on the results of these analyses, design criteria and requirements for the deep borehole disposal system were reviewed, and preliminary reference concept for a deep borehole disposal system, including disposal container and sealing system meeting the criteria and requirements, was developed. Subsequently, various performance assessments, including thermal stability analysis of the system and simulation of the disposal process, were performed in a 3D graphic disposal environment. With these analysis results, the preliminary evaluation of the domestic applicability of the deep borehole disposal system was performed from various points of view. In summary, due to disposal depth and simplicity, the deep borehole disposal system should bring many safety and economic benefits. However, to reduce uncertainty and to obtain the assent of the regulatory authority, an in-situ demonstration of this technology should be carried out. The current results can be used as input to establish a national high-level radioactive waste management policy. In addition, they may be provided as basic information necessary for stakeholders interested in deep borehole disposal technology.

The Effect of Attitude toward Parent Brand on Trial Intention of Brand Extensions and the Moderating Role of Perceived Similarity and Consumption Experience of Parent (모브랜드 태도가 브랜드확장 제품의 시용의도에 미치는 영향과 지각된 유사성과 모브랜드 소비경험의 조절역할)

  • Park, JI-Yeon
    • Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.59-67
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    • 2019
  • Most of the prior researches in brand extension evaluation have utilized purchase intention as a n effective variable to assess the effectiveness of brand extensions. In contrast, the author proposes that trial intention is to better predict consumers' behavioral response in the newly launched brand extension markets where relate to high risk and uncertainty. Furthermore, the study explores the effects of attitude toward parent brand and consumers' characteristics (perceived similarity and consumption experience) on trial intention of brand extensions. In order to achieve the purpose of the study, the data collection was conducted for actual consumers who had experience using parent brand products. This study employed experiment and questionnaire survey and collected data of 186 was analyzed using clustering analysis and regression analysis. The main results are as follows. First, attitude toward parent brand has a positive effect on trial intention of the extensions. Second, perceived similarity and consumption experience of parent brand have moderating effects on the relation of attitude toward parent brand and trial intention of brand extensions. The results provide that both industry and academic researchers with a guide to process trial intention of brand extension from a comprehensive perspective.

Preliminary Feasibility Study for Water Resources Policy Effect Analysis Direction (수자원분야 예비타당성 조사 정책효과 분석 방향)

  • Seong, Yeonjeong;Choi, Seungan;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Jung, Younghun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2021
  • Recently, large-scale projects are required in the water resources sector considering safety and publicitythe due to uncertainty of securing water resources and changes in the ecological environment by climate change. Among these large-scale projects, the projects that fall under the preliminary feasibility study are determined by comprehensive analysis based on economic analysis, policy analysis, and balanced regional development analysis. However, most of the results of the preliminary feasibility study showed a tendency to depend heavily on economic analysis. For this reason, projects in non-metropolitan areas sometimes fail in the preliminary feasibility study. To supplement this point, the Korea Development Institute revised the standard guidelines for preliminary feasibility studies for water resources sector projects that place a high weight on policy feasibility analysis. Therefore, the objective of this study is to analyze the cases of the preliminary feasibility study conducted previously and to suggest the direction of policy analysis in the preliminary feasibility study for water resources sector projects. For this, we analyze preliminary feasibility studies conducted for 18 years from 2002 to 2019, and suggest direction of policy analysis method using the benefit items not included in the economic analysis.

FMEA for rotorcraft landing system using Dempster-Shafer evidence theory (Dempster-Shafer 증거 이론을 이용한 회전익 항공기 착륙장치의 FMEA)

  • Na, Seong-Hyeon;So, Hee-Soup
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.76-84
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    • 2021
  • The quality assurance activities can detect the factors that affect the quality based on risk identification in the course of mass production. Risk identification is conducted with risk analysis, and the risk analysis method for the rotorcraft landing system is selected by failure mode effects analysis (FMEA). FMEA is a method that detects the factors that can affect the product quality by combining severity, occurrence, and detectability. The results of FMEA were prioritized using the risk priority number. On the other hand, these methods have certain shortcomings because the severity, occurrence, detectability are weighted equally. Dempster-Shafer evidence theory can conduct uncertainty analysis for the opinions with personal reflections and subjectivity. Based on the theory, the belief function and the plausibility function can be formed. Moreover, the functions can be utilized to evaluate the belief rate and credibility. The system is exposed to impact during take-off and landing. Therefore, experts should manage failure modes in the course of mass production. In this paper, FMEA based on the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory is discussed to perform risk analysis regarding the failure mode of the rotorcraft landing system. The failure priority was evaluated depending on the factor values. The results were derived using belief and plausibility function graphs.

Evaluation of conceptual rainfall-runoff models for different flow regimes and development of ensemble model (개념적 강우유출 모형의 유량구간별 적합성 평가 및 앙상블 모델 구축)

  • Yu, Jae-Ung;Park, Moon-Hyung;Kim, Jin-Guk;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.105-119
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    • 2021
  • An increase in the frequency and intensity of both floods and droughts has been recently observed due to an increase in climate variability. Especially, land-use change associated with industrial structure and urbanization has led to an imbalance between water supply and demand, acting as a constraint in water resource management. Accurate rainfall-runoff analysis plays a critical role in evaluating water availability in the water budget analysis. This study aimed to explore various continuous rainfall-runoff models over the Soyanggang dam watershed. Moreover, the ensemble modeling framework combining multiple models was introduced to present scenarios on streamflow considering uncertainties. In the ensemble modeling framework, rainfall-runoff models with fewer parameters are generally preferred for effective regionalization. In this study, more than 40 continuous rainfall-runoff models were applied to the Soyanggang dam watershed, and nine rainfall-runoff models were primarily selected using different goodness-of-fit measures. This study confirmed that the ensemble model showed better performance than the individual model over different flow regimes.

Effect of Demand for Labor On Investment in Education (노동에 대한 수요가 교육에 대한 투자에 미치는 영향)

  • Ahn, Sukwhan
    • Journal of Industrial Convergence
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.21-35
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this paper is to examine how demand for labor affects the job seeker's decision on the level of investment in education. In the current paradigm of economic growth in which innovations and technological developments generally weaken the strength demand for labor and increases the uncertainty related to employment, this paper provides a theoretical framework that can be used as a basic framework in understanding the decision of investment in education in varying conditions of demand for labor. The following are the findings of this paper. First, the level of investment in education can generally be regarded to be higher as the demand for labor exacerbates but for the job seekers with a certain characteristic. Second, the Arrow-Pratt absolute risk-aversion measure is the characteristic of the job seeker that determines in what direction the job seeker changes in the level of investment in education, For an arbitrary level of demand for labor there exists a certain threshold which determines the minimum degree of risk-aversion required for the job seeker's Arrow-Pratt should go over to increase the level of education as demand for labor weakens. Third, the job seekers lower the level of education even though the demand condition in labor markets weakens if the compensation function does not depend on the level of education. This is surprising because it turns out that one of the reasons why job seekers invest in education is that they want to be recognized in their compensation for their level of education even when more education still raises the probability of employment.