• 제목/요약/키워드: Uncertainty and Risk

검색결과 633건 처리시간 0.025초

한국, 미국, 중국, 일본 주식시장 간 동적 관계에 관한 연구: 코로나19 전후 비교 중심으로 (A Study on the Relationships between the Stock Markets of Korea, the US, China, and Japan: Focusing on the Pre- and Post-COVID-19 Periods)

  • 어영호;안세륭
    • 아태비즈니스연구
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    • 제15권2호
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    • pp.143-157
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    • 2024
  • Purpose - This paper aims to analyze the relationship and correlation between the stock markets of Korea, the US, China, and Japan before and after the outbreak of COVID-19. Design/methodology/approach - This study conducted an empirical analysis using the stock market data from January 2016 to June 2023 for the representative market indices of Korea, the US, China, and Japan. The analysis employed the VAR model, Granger causality test, impulse response function, and variance decomposition. Findings - Analyzing the relationships of these stock markets before and after the outbreak of COVID-19, we obtained the following results. (i) The influence of the U.S. stock market was found to be absolute regardless of the COVID-19 period, and the rise in the U.S. stock market led to rises in other stock markets. (ii) The Chinese stock market had a significant negative impact on the U.S., Korean, and Japanese stock markets before COVID-19, but this influence disappeared after COVID-19. This suggests that the Chinese market exhibited unique characteristics different from the global market after COVID-19. (iii) Analyzing the period excluding the first quarter of 2020, when global stock market volatility was extremely high due to the spread of COVID-19, we found that the results were very similar to the analysis including the first quarter of 2020. Therefore, it is difficult to argue that the increased uncertainty during this period distorted the relationships among the stock markets of these four countries. Research implications or Originality - We anticipate that these findings will offer valuable insights for both individual and institutional investors, aiding them in portfolio diversification and risk mitigation.

Determinants of E-Intermediary Use in Export Marketing: Cross-National Differences in the US and Korean SMEs

  • Cho, Hyuk-Soo
    • 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국경영과학회 2008년도 추계학술대회 및 정기총회
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    • pp.464-486
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    • 2008
  • Purpose. Electronic intermediaries (e-intermediaries) are gaining significance in international marketing with the rapid development of e-commerce. The goal of this study is to explain empirically what leads to a higher use of this relatively new exportation alternative. Relying on a resource-based view as our research foundation, we focus on information technology (IT) and non-IT factors as possible determinants. Further, this study brings arguments offered by transaction cost theorists to explain the other non-IT determinants. Methodology/Approach. Data are collected from small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the electronic industry in Korea and the U.S to ensure generalizability. Ordinary least square (OLS) regression is utilized to analyze the data. Findings. This study raises new issues regarding a relatively new type of exporting channel, e-intermediary. Exporting is regarded as the most appropriate strategy for SMEs in international commerce. A number of SMEs stay away from exporting due to limited resources or lack of knowledge regarding foreign markets. The findings in this study should help SMEs use e-intermediaries more widely by developing appropriate IT-related resources (IT-related human and relationship assets) and dealing with non-IT factors (international competence, environmental uncertainty, and duration of relationship) effectively. Originality/Value/Contribution. This study illustrates the significant role of e-intermediaries, which may help SMEs to penetrate the global market effectively. Finding relevant sources in the global e-marketplace is a challenge for non-experienced users like SMEs. This study proposes e-intermediaries as an effective alternative for them. Another contribution of this study is to show how the use of indirect exporting channels, e-intermediaries, decrease costs in exporting transactions. This study suggests an e-intermediary as a hybrid exporting channel to balance risk and profit.

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가명 데이터 활용연구 - 기술적 처리방법 및 기업의 활용방향을 중심으로 - (Research on the Use of Pseudonym Data - Focusing on Technical Processing Methods and Corporate Utilization Directions -)

  • 김정선
    • 정보보호학회논문지
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    • 제30권2호
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    • pp.253-261
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    • 2020
  • 본 연구는 본격적인 데이터 경제 활성화를 위한 데이터 3법 통과 이후 기업의 가명데이터의 활용과 관련한 기술과 적용 프로세스에 대하여 살펴보고, 기업이 가명 데이터를 활용하기 위해 준비해야 할 사항과 그 과정에서 발생하게 되는 불확실성을 제거하는데 기여하고자 하였다. 앞으로 기업에서는 기존 IT 시스템 관점의 정보보호 관리체계를 확장하여 데이터 프라이버시 보호 관점에서의 관리와 통제 및 제3자 제공 관점에서의 관리가 필요하다. 또한 내부이용자가 활용하는 데이터 이용환경에서조차 적절한 가명데이터 이용통제가 이루어져야 한다. 가명화 데이터 활용에 따른 시장 변화 및 이종 데이터 결합 활용을 통한 경제적 창출 효과는 매우 클 것이며, 이를 위해 조속한 시간 내에 데이터 활용 및 거래 활성화를 위한 적절한 비식별 조치 기준 및 위험도 판단 기준 수립이 준비되어야 한다.

Financial Disclosure and the Cost of Equity Capital: The Empirical Test of the Largest Listed Companies of Kazakhstan

  • Baimukhamedova, Aizhan;Baimukhamedova, Gulzada;Luchaninova, Albina
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제4권3호
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    • pp.5-17
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    • 2017
  • This study extends research into whether disclosure of corporate and financial information is associated with firms' costs of equity capital. This study sets out to examine empirically the determinants of corporate disclosure in the annual reports of 37 largest and most liquid firms listed on Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) in Kazakhstan. It also reports the results of the association between company-specific characteristics and disclosure of the sample companies. Based on the analysis of existing empirical research, the disclosure index has been constructed and regression analysis of the influence of the disclosure index on the cost of equity capital has been conducted. The obtained results show that the received findings correlate with foreign empirical studies, and the disclosure index in this sample has a negative impact on the cost of equity capital. Using cost of equity capital estimates derived from capital asset pricing model, we find that firms with higher levels of financial transparency are associated with significantly lower costs of equity capital. Economic theory assumes that by increasing the level of corporate reporting, firms not only increase their stock market liquidity, but also decrease the investors' estimation risk, arising from uncertainty about future returns and payout distributions. The results show that firms on the Kazakhstan market can reduce their cost of equity capital by increasing the level of their voluntary corporate disclosures.

국내 외식 프랜차이즈 기업의 중국 시장진출 리스크와 회피전략 연구 (A Study on the Risks and Avoidance Strategies of Franchise Food Companies to Entry Chinese Market)

  • 장광희
    • 아태비즈니스연구
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    • 제10권2호
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    • pp.65-77
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    • 2019
  • The after China's reform and opening up, the country has been facing the era of material abundance based on its economic power. The Chinese food industry has been growing along with economic growth, high quality, and diversified customer needs. Also, as Chinese people have strong attachment to food, many food franchise companies have been also growing rapidly. As the Chinese government encourages and supports the field of food franchises, so that the quality and quantity of the Chinese restaurant industry have been improved largely. Meanwhile with the support of the Korean government to enter the overseas market, the number of Korean franchise companies are increasing to operate their business in China. Under the influence of Chinese food industrial climate, Korean companies are also in search of global market advancement to China. However, the risks in China are unexpectable, which means that the recent move of China is literally showing rugby action, criticism of operating businesses in China has been climbed up and the domestic SMEs are seriously considering whether to stay or leave. This study investigates the environmental risks of Chinese enterprises, in which the food franchise companies could experience, to manage any risks from entering the Chinese market with uncertainty. Through SWOT analysis and cases, strategies to avoid the risks are suggested for Korean companies to enter the Chinese markets. Therefore, this study researches in the current status of Chinese and Korean restaurants, explores any risks in China in terms of exports to China and market advance, develops strategies to avoid those risks, and provides essential suggestions for entering into Chinese market.

ICT 융합과 산업사회의 변화에 대한 연구 (A Study on ICT Conversion and Change of Industrial Society)

  • 문승혁
    • 문화기술의 융합
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    • 제7권4호
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    • pp.653-658
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    • 2021
  • 급속하게 확산되어온 ICT 기술과 다양한 산업의 융합은 현대를 살아가는 개개인이 느끼지 못하는 사이에 기존 산업의 패러다임을 허물고 풍요로운 삶을 영위할 수 있도록 해준다. 이는 개인의 삶에 대한 영향뿐만이 아니고 사회와 국가의 수준과 경쟁력을 높여주는 원동력이 되고 있다. 현대 산업사회는 복잡성이 증대되고 있고 필요한 지식의 양은 날로 늘어나고 있으며, ICT 기술은 계속 진화하고 있다. 이에 따라 새로운 비즈니스 모델이 창출되고 있고 경쟁력 없는 기존의 사업은 자연 도태되며, 기존 산업의 변화 혹은 새로운 산업을 위한 생태계가 구축된다. 최근의 융합 환경에서 시도되는 신규 사업과 경쟁의 질서는 불확실성의 리스크에 노출되기가 쉽다. 이러한 변화는 기존 산업의 몰락을 촉진하거나 새로운 비즈니스 모델의 창출로 이어진다. 변화의 중심에는 디지털 전환(Digital Transformation)과 ICT 융합이 있다. 이러한 현상이 가져오는 사회와 산업의 변화를 분석하고 ICT 융합 산업 경쟁력 확보를 위한 발전방향, 전략 및 추진방안에 대하여 연구한다.

지하수 오염우려지역 실태조사 보고서 기반의 사전 부지개념모델 구축 (Construction of a Preliminary Conceptual Site Model Based on a Site Investigation Report for Area of Concerns about Groundwater Contamination)

  • 김주희;배민서;권만재;조호영;이순재
    • 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
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    • 제27권spc호
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    • pp.64-74
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    • 2022
  • The conceptual site model (CSM) is used as a key tool to support decision making in risk based management of contaminated sites. In this work, CSM was applied in Jeonju Industrial Complex where site investigation for groundwater contamination was conducted. Site background information including facility types, physical conditions, contaminants spill history, receptor exposure, and ecological information were collected and cross-checked with tabulated checklist necessary for CSM application. The CSM for contaminants migration utilized DNAPL transport model and narrative CSMs were constructed for source to receptor pathway, ecological exposure route, and contaminants fate and transport in the form of a diagram or flowchart. The component and uncertainty of preliminary CSM were reviewed using the data gap analysis while taking into account the purpose of the survey and the site management stage at the time of the survey. Through this approach, the potential utility of CSM was demonstrated in the site management process, such as assessing site conditions and planning follow-up survey work.

C-reactive Protein Concentration Is Associated With a Higher Risk of Mortality in a Rural Korean Population

  • Lee, Jung Hyun;Yeom, Hyungseon;Kim, Hyeon Chang;Suh, Il;Kim, Mi Kyung;Shin, Min-Ho;Shin, Dong Hoon;Koh, Sang-Baek;Ahn, Song Vogue;Lee, Tae-Yong;Ryu, So Yeon;Song, Jae-Sok;Choe, Hong-Soon;Lee, Young-Hoon;Choi, Bo Youl
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제49권5호
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    • pp.275-287
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    • 2016
  • Objectives: C-reactive protein (CRP), an inflammatory biomarker, has been widely used as a preclinical marker predictive of morbidity and mortality. Although many studies have reported a positive association between CRP and mortality, uncertainty still remains about this association in various populations, especially in rural Korea. Methods: A total of 23 233 middle-aged participants (8862 men and 14 371 women) who were free from cardiovascular disease, cancer, and acute inflammation (defined by a CRP level ${\geq}10mg/L$) were drawn from 11 rural communities in Korea between 2005 and 2011. Blood CRP concentration was analyzed as a categorical variable (low: 0.0-0.9 mg/L; intermediate: 1.0-3.0 mg/L; high: 3.1-9.9 mg/L) as well as a continuous variable. Each participant's vital status through December 2013 was confirmed by death statistics from the National Statistical Office. Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the independent association between CRP and mortality after adjusting for other risk factors. Results: The total quantity of observed person-years was 57 975 for men and 95 146 for women, and the number of deaths was 649 among men and 367 among women. Compared to the low-CRP group, the adjusted hazard ratio for all-cause mortality of the intermediate group was 1.17 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.98 to 1.40) for men and 1.27 (95% CI, 1.01 to 1.61) for women, and the corresponding values for the high-CRP group were 1.98 (95% CI, 1.61 to 2.42) for men and 1.41 (95% CI, 1.03 to 1.95) for women. Similar trends were found for CRP evaluated as a continuous variable and for cardiovascular mortality. Conclusions: Higher CRP concentrations were associated with higher mortality in a rural Korean population, and this association was more prominent in men than in women.

브로일러계열화 생산조직에 관한 고찰 - 미국의 예를 중심으로 - (Integrated Broiler Production System - As a Means of Stabilizing Whole Industry with Particular Reference to U.S. Experience -)

  • 박영인
    • 한국가금학회지
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    • 제6권2호
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    • pp.91-102
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    • 1979
  • The basic problem of the broiler industry is that of fluctuating prices, mainly thanks to unstable supply of and inelastic demand for products as usually indicated as a peculiarity of agricultural commodities. This particularly brings the producer to a great economic risk, because he has to sell products under the condition of pure competition, whereas others from whom he has to buy deal under the condition of oligopoly or even monopoly. Therefore, producers economic position is generally placed in the worst comparing others dealing with, which results in unbalanced economic status of elements involved in broiler operation and further obstruction of industry development as a whole. A certain type of business coordination to overcome such a problem should be measured in order to improve the efficiency of entire operation and thus assure the balanced industry development. The concept of the economic integration developed in modern business system had been adapted to U.S. poultry industry which became common later around the world as a means of stabilizing producers price and whole industry as well. There are two main typos of integration; horizontal and vertical The former refers to the general grouping of similar business units, eg. a hatchery tying with other hatchery, while the latter refers to the knitting together of two or more stages of economic activities, eg. tying together among units of hatching, fled milling, production, processing and marketing. By having the industry integrated, risk and uncertainty involved in various stages of operation could be diversified. The typo of integrating contract between producers and integrators include the share of profits, flat fee payment, feed conversion payment and salary basis. In the U.S., extensive changes in production, processing, and marketing during the last few decades have changed the thicken broiler industry from one of small, widely scattered farms to one that is largo, concentrated and efficient. More than 99 percent of all broilers produced are grown under contract and by integrated firms which vary in size of operation and complexity. About 84 percent of all production is concentrated in 10 States. Some of the other factors ;hat contributed to these choses arc costs, energy use, prices, processing, marketing and demand. No integrated broiler production system has yet been applied in Korea's poultry industry, thus all stages all broiler operation run independently seeking for its own profit. Consequently, producers price fluctuate very widely around the year even more than 50 percent in a few months. This also leads to disadvantages of material supplies, processors and distributors and enforce the industry unstable. The current economic environment in Korea seems that the time for broiler integration comes and as an ideal integrator, feed millers, food processors and producers group may be considered.

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빅데이터 분석 교육의 문제점과 개선 방안 -학생 과제 보고서를 중심으로 (Problems of Big Data Analysis Education and Their Solutions)

  • 최도식
    • 한국융합학회논문지
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    • 제8권12호
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    • pp.265-274
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    • 2017
  • 본 논문은 빅데이터 분석 교육의 문제점을 고찰해 그 개선 방안을 제시한다. 빅데이터의 특성은 V3에서 V5로 진화하고 있다. 이에 빅데이터 분석 교육도 V5를 감안한 데이터 분석 교육이 되어야 한다. 작금 불확실성의 증대는 데이터 분석의 리스크를 증가시키기에 내적 외적 구조화/비구조화 데이터를 비롯해 교란 요인마저 분석할 때 데이터의 신뢰성은 증가될 수 있다. 그리고 평판분석을 활용할 때 범하기 쉬운 오류가 가변성과 불확실성에 대한 상황 인식이다. 가변성의 측면을 고려해, 다양한 변수와 옵션에 의한 불확실성의 상황을 인식하고 대비한 데이터 분석이 이뤄질 때 데이터에 대한 신뢰성과 정확성은 증가할 수 있다. 사회관계망 분석에서 학생들과 일반 연구자들이 주로 활용하는 것이 텍스톰과 노드엑셀의 노드 분석이다. 사화관계망 분석은 매개중심성에 의한 상황 분석을 통해 다크 데이터를 찾아 이상 현상을 감지하고 현 상황을 분석하여 유용한 의미를 얻고 미래를 예측할 수 있어야 한다.