• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.285-298
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• 1991

An example application of the fuzzy set theory is first made to a simple portion of a given accident progression event tree with typical qualitative fuzzy input data, and thereby computational algorithms suitable for application of the fuzzy set theory to the accident progression event tree analysis are identified and illustrated with example applications. Then the procedure used in the simple example is extended to extremely complex accident progression event trees with a number of phenomenological uncertainty issues, i.e., a typical plant damage state‘SEC’of the Zion Nuclear Power Plant risk assessment. The results show that the fuzzy averages of the fuzzy outcomes are very close to the mean values obtained by current methods. The main purpose of this paper is to provide a formal procedure for application of the fuzzy set theory to accident progression event trees with imprecise and qualitative branch probabilities and/or with a number of phenomenological uncertainty issues.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 1999.04a
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• pp.426-426
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• 1999

;There are many sources of uncertainty in a typical production and inventory system. There is uncertainty as to how many items customers will demand during the next day, week, month, or year. There is uncertainty about delivery times of the product. Uncertainty exacts a toll from management in a variety of ways. A spurt in a demand or a delay in production may lead to stockouts, with the potential for lost revenue and customer dissatisfaction. Firms typically hold inventory to provide protection against uncertainty. A cushion of inventory on hand allows management to face unexpected demands or delays in delivery with a reduced chance of incurring a stockout. The proposed strategies are used for the design of a probabilistic inventory system. In the traditional approach to the design of an inventory system, the goal is to find the best setting of various inventory control policy parameters such as the re-order level, review period, order quantity, etc. which would minimize the total inventory cost. The goals of the analysis need to be defined, so that robustness becomes an important design criterion. Moreover, one has to conceptualize and identify appropriate noise variables. There are two main goals for the inventory policy design. One is to minimize the average inventory cost and the stockouts. The other is to the variability for the average inventory cost and the stockouts The total average inventory cost is the sum of three components: the ordering cost, the holding cost, and the shortage costs. The shortage costs include the cost of the lost sales, cost of loss of goodwill, cost of customer dissatisfaction, etc. The noise factors for this design problem are identified to be: the mean demand rate and the mean lead time. Both the demand and the lead time are assumed to be normal random variables. Thus robustness for this inventory system is interpreted as insensitivity of the average inventory cost and the stockout to uncontrollable fluctuations in the mean demand rate and mean lead time. To make this inventory system for robustness, the concept of utility theory will be used. Utility theory is an analytical method for making a decision concerning an action to take, given a set of multiple criteria upon which the decision is to be based. Utility theory is appropriate for design having different scale such as demand rate and lead time since utility theory represents different scale across decision making attributes with zero to one ranks, higher preference modeled with a higher rank. Using utility theory, three design strategies, such as distance strategy, response strategy, and priority-based strategy. for the robust inventory system will be developed.loped.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.56 no.2
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• pp.11-23
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• 2014

The impact and adaption on agricultural water resources considering climate change is significant for reservoirs. The change in rainfall patterns and hydrologic factors due to climate change increases the uncertainty of agricultural water supply and demand. The quantitative evaluation method of uncertainty based on agricultural water resource management under future climate conditions is a major concern. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the vulnerability management technique for agricultural water supply based on a probabilistic and stochastic risk evaluation theory. The objective of this study was to analyse the uncertainty of water resources under future climate change using probability distribution function of water supply in agricultural reservoir and demand in irrigation district. The uncertainty of future water resources in agricultural reservoirs was estimated using the time-specific analysis of histograms and probability distributions parameter, for example the location and the scale parameter. According to the uncertainty analysis, the future agricultural water supply and demand in reservoir tends to increase the uncertainty by the low consistency of the results. Thus, it is recommended to prepare a resonable decision making on water supply strategies in terms of using climate change scenarios that reflect different future development conditions.

• 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2008.03a
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• pp.79-83
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• 2008

An approach to CFD code validation is developed that gives proper consideration to experimental and simulation uncertainties. The comparison errors include the difference between the data, simulation values and represents the combination of all errors. The uncertainties of modeling and numerical analysis in the CFD prediction were estimated by a Coleman's theory. In this paper, the numerical solutions are calculated by A-type standard uncertainty and Richardson extrapolation Method.

• 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2008.10a
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• pp.79-83
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• 2008

An approach to CFD code validation is developed that gives proper consideration to experimental and simulation uncertainties. The comparison errors include the difference between the data, simulation values and represents the combination of all errors. The uncertainties of modeling and numerical analysis in the CFD prediction were estimated by a Coleman's theory. In this paper, the numerical solutions are calculated by A-type standard uncertainty and Richardson extrapolation Method.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2013.01a
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• pp.502-506
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• 2013

The cash flow forecasting is normally done by contractors in construction industry at early stages of the project for contractual decisions. The decision making in such situations involve uncertainty about future cash flows and assessment of working capital requirements gains more importance in projects constrained by cash. The traditional approach to assess the working capital requirements is deterministic in and neglects the uncertainty. This paper presents an alternate approach to assessment of working capital requirements for contractor based on fuzzy set theory by considering the uncertainty and ambiguity involved at payment periods. Statistical methods are used to deal with the uncertainty for working capital curves. Membership functions of the fuzzy sets are developed based on these statistical measures. Advantage of fuzzy peak working capital requirements is demonstrated using peak working capital requirements curves. Fuzzy peak working capital requirements curves are compared with deterministic curves and the results are analyzed. Fuzzy weighted average methodology is proposed for the assessment of peak working capital requirements.

• Journal for History of Mathematics
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.93-98
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• 2002

In this paper, we critically survey the mathematical Platonism in respect to its abstract, ahistorical, asocial and acultural character. The uncertainty of man's concepts is investigated with special attention to evolutionary theory, philosophical and epistemological developments regarding the cognitive unconsciousness and the embodied mind. We research into the implication of the Darwin machine theory for human consciousness and Wittegenstein's philosophy of mathematics.

• The Journal of Information Systems
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.119-145
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• 2014

Under the premise that information privacy concerns can atrophy e-commerce by causing particular behaviors of Internet users, this study focused on exploring the causes of information privacy concerns, the related information privacy protective responses of Internet users, and measures for alleviating the information privacy concerns. This study is based on the 'principal-agent theory,' and established the following as factors that cause information privacy concerns of Internet users: perceived information non-transparency; perceived action uncertainty. Also, the information privacy concerns caused by the factors were established as the cause of information privacy protective responses of Internet users. Also, the concept of 'signaling' and 'incentive,' which were presented to solve the adverse selection and moral hazard issue in the host-agent theory, was introduced to establish the following as factors that alleviate information privacy concerns: trust; informativeness. Those factors were included in the research model to conduct an empirical analysis. The analysis has revealed that both the perceived information non-transparency (p<0.01) and perceived action uncertainty (p<0.01) as to websites had a significant impact on information privacy concerns. Also, information privacy concerns of Internet users (p<0.01) had a significant impact on their information privacy protective responses who strive to protect their personal information. In addition, when trust and informativeness, which were established as factors that can alleviate information privacy concerns, were empirically analyzed, trust and informativeness had the effect of alleviating information privacy concerns. Based on the findings, the following was confirmed: Boosting the trust of Internet users in websites and offering useful information related to personal data can play a key role in alleviating the information privacy concerns of Internet users.

• Journal of the Institute of Convergence Signal Processing
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• v.2 no.3
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• pp.57-64
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• 2001

This paper propose a robust control method to achieve a desired system performance in spite of system uncertainty and disturbance uncertainty. The procedures of the robust controller based on QFT(Quantitative Feedback Theory) make template, bound and loop shaping which are considered by system parameter variations and performance specifications. To prove the efficiency, the designed controller is applied for an inverted pendulum which is so sensitive to the parameter variation and has a highly nonlinear and unstable characteristics. It is shown that the simulation and experimental results from the proposed controller are efficient in robustness of parameter variation and disturbance.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.15 no.5
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• pp.921-937
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• 2006

In this paper, we apply fuzzy theory in a discrete choice Contingent Valuation Method(CVM) in order for dealing preference uncertainty problem. Fuzzy membership function is used in an empirical analysis to estimate the willingness-to-pay(WTP) for the preservation of the endangered Asiatic Black Bear in Korea. The estimated WTP was about 9,090 Korea Won per household with 78 percent of confidence level. The advantage of applying fuzzy theory in the valuation method could be found in its ability to measure the confidence level of the estimated WTP.