• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty Process

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A Study on Forecasting Accuracy Improvement of Case Based Reasoning Approach Using Fuzzy Relation (퍼지 관계를 활용한 사례기반추론 예측 정확성 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, In-Ho;Shin, Kyung-Shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.67-84
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    • 2010
  • In terms of business, forecasting is a work of what is expected to happen in the future to make managerial decisions and plans. Therefore, the accurate forecasting is very important for major managerial decision making and is the basis for making various strategies of business. But it is very difficult to make an unbiased and consistent estimate because of uncertainty and complexity in the future business environment. That is why we should use scientific forecasting model to support business decision making, and make an effort to minimize the model's forecasting error which is difference between observation and estimator. Nevertheless, minimizing the error is not an easy task. Case-based reasoning is a problem solving method that utilizes the past similar case to solve the current problem. To build the successful case-based reasoning models, retrieving the case not only the most similar case but also the most relevant case is very important. To retrieve the similar and relevant case from past cases, the measurement of similarities between cases is an important key factor. Especially, if the cases contain symbolic data, it is more difficult to measure the distances. The purpose of this study is to improve the forecasting accuracy of case-based reasoning approach using fuzzy relation and composition. Especially, two methods are adopted to measure the similarity between cases containing symbolic data. One is to deduct the similarity matrix following binary logic(the judgment of sameness between two symbolic data), the other is to deduct the similarity matrix following fuzzy relation and composition. This study is conducted in the following order; data gathering and preprocessing, model building and analysis, validation analysis, conclusion. First, in the progress of data gathering and preprocessing we collect data set including categorical dependent variables. Also, the data set gathered is cross-section data and independent variables of the data set include several qualitative variables expressed symbolic data. The research data consists of many financial ratios and the corresponding bond ratings of Korean companies. The ratings we employ in this study cover all bonds rated by one of the bond rating agencies in Korea. Our total sample includes 1,816 companies whose commercial papers have been rated in the period 1997~2000. Credit grades are defined as outputs and classified into 5 rating categories(A1, A2, A3, B, C) according to credit levels. Second, in the progress of model building and analysis we deduct the similarity matrix following binary logic and fuzzy composition to measure the similarity between cases containing symbolic data. In this process, the used types of fuzzy composition are max-min, max-product, max-average. And then, the analysis is carried out by case-based reasoning approach with the deducted similarity matrix. Third, in the progress of validation analysis we verify the validation of model through McNemar test based on hit ratio. Finally, we draw a conclusion from the study. As a result, the similarity measuring method using fuzzy relation and composition shows good forecasting performance compared to the similarity measuring method using binary logic for similarity measurement between two symbolic data. But the results of the analysis are not statistically significant in forecasting performance among the types of fuzzy composition. The contributions of this study are as follows. We propose another methodology that fuzzy relation and fuzzy composition could be applied for the similarity measurement between two symbolic data. That is the most important factor to build case-based reasoning model.

Computer Assisted EPID Analysis of Breast Intrafractional and Interfractional Positioning Error (유방암 방사선치료에 있어 치료도중 및 분할치료 간 위치오차에 대한 전자포탈영상의 컴퓨터를 이용한 자동 분석)

  • Sohn Jason W.;Mansur David B.;Monroe James I.;Drzymala Robert E.;Jin Ho-Sang;Suh Tae-Suk;Dempsey James F.;Klein Eric E.
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.24-31
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    • 2006
  • Automated analysis software was developed to measure the magnitude of the intrafractional and interfractional errors during breast radiation treatments. Error analysis results are important for determining suitable planning target volumes (PTV) prior to Implementing breast-conserving 3-D conformal radiation treatment (CRT). The electrical portal imaging device (EPID) used for this study was a Portal Vision LC250 liquid-filled ionization detector (fast frame-averaging mode, 1.4 frames per second, 256X256 pixels). Twelve patients were imaged for a minimum of 7 treatment days. During each treatment day, an average of 8 to 9 images per field were acquired (dose rate of 400 MU/minute). We developed automated image analysis software to quantitatively analyze 2,931 images (encompassing 720 measurements). Standard deviations ($\sigma$) of intrafractional (breathing motion) and intefractional (setup uncertainty) errors were calculated. The PTV margin to include the clinical target volume (CTV) with 95% confidence level was calculated as $2\;(1.96\;{\sigma})$. To compensate for intra-fractional error (mainly due to breathing motion) the required PTV margin ranged from 2 mm to 4 mm. However, PTV margins compensating for intefractional error ranged from 7 mm to 31 mm. The total average error observed for 12 patients was 17 mm. The intefractional setup error ranged from 2 to 15 times larger than intrafractional errors associated with breathing motion. Prior to 3-D conformal radiation treatment or IMRT breast treatment, the magnitude of setup errors must be measured and properly incorporated into the PTV. To reduce large PTVs for breast IMRT or 3-D CRT, an image-guided system would be extremely valuable, if not required. EPID systems should incorporate automated analysis software as described in this report to process and take advantage of the large numbers of EPID images available for error analysis which will help Individual clinics arrive at an appropriate PTV for their practice. Such systems can also provide valuable patient monitoring information with minimal effort.

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Tendency of 'a Cartoon Image' Appearing in Korean Modern Fine Arts - Ocusing on 'Atomouse' of Lee Dong-gi - (한국 현대 미술에 나타나는 '만화 이미지'의 경향성 -이동기의 <아토마우스>를 중심으로-)

  • Jeon, Young Je
    • Cartoon and Animation Studies
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    • s.36
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    • pp.669-702
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    • 2014
  • Today, in Korean modern fine arts, 'cartoon images' are utilized for their roles of the 'personas' of the artists, and as the 'texts' for the artistic discourses, while they play a role as a bridgehead between the public and art. In this study, we made a study, focusing on 'Atomouse' of Lee Dong-gi, in order to examine how the borrowing of the 'cartoon images' was made in the Korean modern fine arts, and what its period context is. 'Atomouse' of Lee Dong-gi is the first cartoon character that appeared in Korean modern fine arts, and it has acquired a symbolism of a subculture being acknowledged as art. In this study, we tried to find out what period contexts the changes of 'Atomouse' have, focusing on the private exhibitions of Lee Dong-gi, such as 'Smoking' Exhibition (2006), 'Bubble' Exhibition (2008), 'Double Vision' Exhibition (2008), 'The Garden of Uncertainty' Exhibition (2012) and 'Do Not Look Back with Angry Face' Exhibition (2013). Atomouse was born in the era of 'lack of pop' a change was attempted of it in the era of 'excess of pop' and its proceeding ended along with the 'settlement of the neo-pop'. From Atomouse started from the unconsciousness of the artist, we can find the 'identity' of the Republic of Korea, which was being influenced by the 'American and Japanese' culture, as well as the symbolism of a subculture being acknowledged as art, while it emerged as an icon to represent the Korean pop art of the time. Then, as the agony and self-examination of the artist was contained in it, its use was changed into the role as a persona and it was utilized as a tool to connect the and figurative worlds. In the end, the artist put an end to the proceeding of the 'Atomouse' at the boundaries of a persona and an alter ego, removing the creation with his own hands. In the process in which Lee Dong-gi created and changed 'Atomouse', the start-up and growth of the pop art are included in the history of the Korean modern fine arts, apart from a study of an artist. 'Atomouse' was not only painted on the walls of the subway stations in the form of public art, but it tried to closely communicate with the public through the collaboration with diverse media. It made the best use of the 'marketability' which a 'cartoon character' had at first, so that pure art was made a step closer to the public. So 'Atomouse' of Lee Dong-gi not only raised a subculture into the realm of high art, but lowered the door sill to high art. Through the study we could confirm what position 'Atomouse' of Lee Dong-gi, which started absurdly between parody and Hommage, takes in Korean modern art of today.

Technology Innovation Activity and Default Risk (기술혁신활동이 부도위험에 미치는 영향 : 한국 유가증권시장 및 코스닥시장 상장기업을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Jin-Su
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.55-80
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    • 2009
  • Technology innovation activity plays a pivotal role in constructing the entrance barrier for other firms and making process improvement and new product. and these activities give a profit increase and growth to firms. Thus, technology innovation activity can reduce the default risk of firms. However, technology innovation activity can also increase the firm's default risk because technology innovation activity requires too much investment of the firm's resources and has the uncertainty on success. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of technology innovation activity on the default risk of firms. This study's sample consists of manufacturing firms listed on the Korea Securities Market and The Kosdaq Market from January 1,2000 to December 31, 2008. This study makes use of R&D intensity as an proxy variable of technology innovation activity. The default probability which proxies the default risk of firms is measured by the Merton's(l974) debt pricing model. The main empirical results are as follows. First, from the empirical results, it is found that technology innovation activity has a negative and significant effect on the default risk of firms independent of the Korea Securities Market and Kosdaq Market. In other words, technology innovation activity reduces the default risk of firms. Second, technology innovation activity reduces the default risk of firms independent of firm size, firm age, and credit score. Third, the results of robust analysis also show that technology innovation activity is the important factor which decreases the default risk of firms. These results imply that a manager must show continuous interest and investment in technology innovation activity of one's firm. And a policymaker also need design an economic policy to promote the technology innovation activity of firms.

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The Naturally Occurring Levels of Nitrate and Nitrite in Livestock Products (축산물 중 천연유래 질산염 및 아질산염 함유량 조사)

  • Choi, Jae-Chun;Park, So-Ra;Lim, Ho-Soo;Ko, Kyung-Yuk;Kim, Meehye
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.265-271
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    • 2015
  • This study was done in order to investigate the naturally occurring levels of nitrate and nitrite in livestock products. Total samples of 458 consisting of meats (n = 223), processed meat products (n = 51), raw milks (n = 30), processed milk products (n = 142), eggs (n = 5) and processed egg products (n = 7) were analyzed for contents of nitrate and nitrite by ion chromatography (IC). That methods showed good results in terms of linearity, limit of detection (LOD), limit of quantitation (LOQ), recovery, reproducibility and uncertainty. Nitrate and nitrite were detected in 167 and 40 samples, respectively. The nitrate levels (mg/kg) were not detected (ND)~40.23 for modified milks, ND~37.97 for sauce meats, ND~32.40 for process cheeses, ND~31.50 for processed egg products, ND~27.73 for dry milks, ND~24.76 for sausages, ND~22.45 for bacons, ND~21.55 for natural cheeses, ND~20.82 for hams and fermented milks, ND~13.57 for eggs, ND~12.77 for butters, ND~9.31 for milks and ND~3.88 for meats while the nitrite levels (mg/kg) were ND~17.35 for processed egg products and ND~1.92 for meats. In conclusion, the result of this study of nitrate and nitrite in livestock products could be used as one of scientific base datum to determine whether they are naturally occurring or not, including ingredients and their percentage, manufacturing processes, other papers relating to naturally occurring levels of them, and so on.

A study on the moral instruction as a poetic act (시적 행위로서의 도덕과 수업)

  • Song, Young-min
    • The Journal of Korean Philosophical History
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    • no.31
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    • pp.87-111
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    • 2011
  • In moral instruction, one of the important purposes is cultivate students' meaningful moral knowing. To obtain this purpose, generally systems approach has been adopted and used in moral instruction. Systems approach has emphasized efficient designs which do not occur incidental learning that does not contribute to obtain learning objectives. However, moral meaning may occur to the subject of knowing, then occurrence of coincidence can not be excluded. If we approach to moral instruction with operative and engineering ways, we may convey the learning object but it won't be received meaningfully. Because of such problem, moral instruction has been required an alternative perspective contrary to the systems approach. Above all we need to reconsider the logic of explanation based on the systems approach. Because the moral instruction is understood that it is a systematic and operative act according to the logic of explanation. According to the logic of explanation, education is an act that conveys the teachers' knowledge to students who have inferior knowledge to teachers'. During this process, students' interpretation has been overlooked. In moral instruction, the teachers' interpretation of moral meaning can occur and extend by students' interpretation. When we understand moral instruction as the course of alliance between interpretation, it could be stood out that teaching as a symbol, constitution of teaching text as a vacuum, learning as a coincidence. When we stand out these aspects, the moral instruction could be understand as a poetic act. And based on such understanding, we can abstract specific resemblances between the poetic act and the moral instruction. There are semantic invariants and semantic variants in the teaching text of moral instruction. The semantic variants premise uncertainty. The limitation, that is, semantic invariants and the openness which is possible within semantic variants are changed to the moral instruction by students' response. It is essential that a selective attention as esthetic transaction that could be changed from text to poet. Like this, we need to take notice of instructive aspects not to means for reaching learning objectives but to act for being possible disinterested experiential learning.

Long-term forecasting reference evapotranspiration using statistically predicted temperature information (통계적 기온예측정보를 활용한 기준증발산량 장기예측)

  • Kim, Chul-Gyum;Lee, Jeongwoo;Lee, Jeong Eun;Kim, Hyeonjun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.12
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    • pp.1243-1254
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    • 2021
  • For water resources operation or agricultural water management, it is important to accurately predict evapotranspiration for a long-term future over a seasonal or monthly basis. In this study, reference evapotranspiration forecast (up to 12 months in advance) was performed using statistically predicted monthly temperatures and temperature-based Hamon method for the Han River basin. First, the daily maximum and minimum temperature data for 15 meterological stations in the basin were derived by spatial-temporal downscaling the monthly temperature forecasts. The results of goodness-of-fit test for the downscaled temperature data at each site showed that the percent bias (PBIAS) ranged from 1.3 to 6.9%, the ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of the observations (RSR) ranged from 0.22 to 0.27, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) ranged from 0.93 to 0.95, and the Pearson correlation coefficient (r) ranged from 0.97 to 0.98 for the monthly average daily maximum temperature. And for the monthly average daily minimum temperature, PBIAS was 7.8 to 44.7%, RSR was 0.21 to 0.25, NSE was 0.94 to 0.96, and r was 0.98 to 0.99. The difference by site was not large, and the downscaled results were similar to the observations. In the results of comparing the forecasted reference evapotranspiration calculated using the downscaled data with the observed values for the entire region, PBIAS was 2.2 to 5.4%, RSR was 0.21 to 0.28, NSE was 0.92 to 0.96, and r was 0.96 to 0.98, indicating a very high fit. Due to the characteristics of the statistical models and uncertainty in the downscaling process, the predicted reference evapotranspiration may slightly deviate from the observed value in some periods when temperatures completely different from the past are observed. However, considering that it is a forecast result for the future period, it will be sufficiently useful as information for the evaluation or operation of water resources in the future.

The Applicability of Conditional Generative Model Generating Groundwater Level Fluctuation Corresponding to Precipitation Pattern (조건부 생성모델을 이용한 강수 패턴에 따른 지하수위 생성 및 이의 활용에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Jiho;Jeong, Jina;Lee, Byung Sun;Song, Sung-Ho
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.77-89
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    • 2021
  • In this study, a method has been proposed to improve the performance of hydraulic property estimation model developed by Jeong et al. (2020). In their study, low-dimensional features of the annual groundwater level (GWL) fluctuation patterns extracted based on a Denoising autoencoder (DAE) was used to develop a regression model for predicting hydraulic properties of an aquifer. However, low-dimensional features of the DAE are highly dependent on the precipitation pattern even if the GWL is monitored at the same location, causing uncertainty in hydraulic property estimation of the regression model. To solve the above problem, a process for generating the GWL fluctuation pattern for conditioning the precipitation is proposed based on a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE). The CVAE trains a statistical relationship between GWL fluctuation and precipitation pattern. The actual GWL and precipitation data monitored on a total of 71 monitoring stations over 10 years in South Korea was applied to validate the effect of using CVAE. As a result, the trained CVAE model reasonably generated GWL fluctuation pattern with the conditioning of various precipitation patterns for all the monitoring locations. Based on the trained CVAE model, the low-dimensional features of the GWL fluctuation pattern without interference of different precipitation patterns were extracted for all monitoring stations, and they were compared to the features extracted based on the DAE. Consequently, it can be confirmed that the statistical consistency of the features extracted using CVAE is improved compared to DAE. Thus, we conclude that the proposed method may be useful in extracting a more accurate feature of GWL fluctuation pattern affected solely by hydraulic characteristics of the aquifer, which would be followed by the improved performance of the previously developed regression model.

Investigation of the Effect of Calculation Method of Offset Correction Factor on the GEMS Sulfur Dioxide Retrieval Algorithm (GEMS 이산화황 산출 현업 알고리즘에서 오프셋 보정 계수 산정 방법에 대한 영향 조사)

  • Park, Jeonghyeon;Yang, Jiwon;Choi, Wonei;Kim, Serin;Lee, Hanlim
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.189-198
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    • 2022
  • In this present study, we investigated the effect of the offset correction factor calculation method on the sulfur dioxide (SO2) column density in the SO2 retrieval algorithm of the Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) launched in February 2020. The GEMS operational SO2 retrieval algorithm is the Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) - Principal Component Analysis (PCA) Hybrid algorithm. In the GEMS Hybrid algorithm, the offset correction process is essential to correct the absorption effect of ozone appearing in the SO2 slant column density (SCD) obtained after spectral fitting using DOAS. Since the SO2 column density may depend on the conditions for calculating the offset correction factor, it is necessary to apply an appropriate offset correction value. In this present study, the offset correction values were calculated for days with many cloud pixels and few cloud pixels, respectively. And a comparison of the SO2 column density retrieved by applying each offset correction factor to the GEMS operational SO2 retrieval algorithm was performed. When the offset correction value was calculated using radiance data of GEMS on a day with many cloud pixels was used, the standard deviation of the SO2 column density around India and the Korean Peninsula, which are the edges of the GEMS observation area, was 1.27 DU, and 0.58 DU, respectively. And around Hong Kong, where there were many cloud pixels, the SO2 standard deviation was 0.77 DU. On the other hand, when the offset correction value calculated using the GEMS data on the day with few cloud pixels was used, the standard deviation of the SO2 column density slightly decreased around India (0.72 DU), Korean Peninsula (0.38 DU), and Hong Kong (0.44 DU). We found that the SO2 retrieval was relatively stable compared to the SO2 retrieval case using the offset correction value on the day with many cloud pixels. Accordingly, to minimize the uncertainty of the GEMS SO2 retrieval algorithm and to obtain a stable retrieval, it is necessary to calculate the offset correction factor under appropriate conditions.

The Family and Individual in the Transmedia Storytelling of Young Adult Narratives (청소년서사의 트랜스미디어 스토리텔링에 나타나는 가족과 개인)

  • Chung, Hye-Kyung
    • Journal of Popular Narrative
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.215-262
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    • 2021
  • This thesis focuses on Wandeuki and Elegant Lies - novels written by Kim Ryeo-reong and adapted into the film by Director Lee Han; this thesis analyzes the process of storytelling being transformed as the media is converted. Also, this thesis discusses cultural-political implications of transmedia storytelling where different narrative responses coexist concerning post-IMF family disorganization and "individualization." First of all, this thesis critically reviews existing discourses on the concept of transmedia storytelling and refers to 'transfictionality' the narratological concept of Marie-Laure Ryan in order to look into media conversion storytelling that starts from original novels. The novels Wandeuki and Elegant Lies show two aspects of "individualization" that adopts existential conditions of family disorganization. Wandeuki deviates from patriarchal family romance through self-discovery and exhibits loose family bond, which is something similar to companionship of close individuals. Elegant Lies shows individualization of pain by portraying a teenager who found herself completely isolated, while showing that it is impossible for the people left behind to mourn. On the other hand, director Lee Han's films and show stories in which family members, who are confronting family dissolution, rediscover and restore their families against family dissolution. The film promotes the expansion of family community through multicultural identity, and the film completes condolence of the people left behind by having the remaining families survive as survivors of suicide. The storyworld of the novels puts emphasis on 'self-discovery' of individual adolescents, while the storyworld of the movies puts emphasis on 'rediscovery of family'. Through transformation of storytelling - especially the redesigning of narrative structures called "modification" - transmedia storytelling shows that the relationship between media-converted texts is far from "faithful representation," but rather, shows conflicting themes and perspectives. With a reference point of 'the emergence of character' transmedia storytelling, which is predicated on the original work but aims to free itself from the original work by transforming storytelling through media conversion, opens up polyphonic storyworld by creating heterogeneous voices. In the post IMF-era, where uncertainty mounts over family dissolution and individualization, polyphonic storyworld created by transmedia storytelling provides an opportunity to experience disparate desires over individual freedom/risk and complacency toward community. We can call this the cultural-political implication of transmedia storytelling based on transferring, transcednding, and transforming.