• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty Index

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Dietary Risk Assessment for Pesticide Residues of Vegetables in Seoul, Korea (서울지역 유통 채소류 섭취에 따른 잔류 농약의 위해성 평가)

  • Jang, Mi-Ra;Moon, Hyun-Kyung;Kim, Tae-Rang;Yuk, Dong-Hyun;Kim, Jung-Hun;Park, Seog-Gee
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.404-412
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    • 2010
  • This paper specifically discusses the risk assessment on the pesticide residues in vegetables collected from traditional markets, big marts and departments in the southern part of Seoul. Vegetable samples were 6,583 cases from January to December in 2009. Monte-Carlo simulation was used to calculate the uncertainty for the risk index using pesticide residues, average dietary intake for vegetables and acceptable daily intake. Deterministic risk indexes were 7.33% of diethofencarb, 5.13% of indoxacarb, 3.96% of EPN, 3.92% of diniconazole and 3.09% of chlorothalonil, respectively. And other pesticides were below 3%. Distributions of risk indexes obtained by the Monte-Carlo simulations were similar to the deterministic values, even though the confidence intervals for 95% were very wide. We confirmed that health risks caused by eating vegetables exceeded maximum residue limits of pesticide are very low and the population is generally safe, judging from the risk indexes located between 0.07 to 9.49%.

Prediction of a hit drama with a pattern analysis on early viewing ratings (초기 시청시간 패턴 분석을 통한 대흥행 드라마 예측)

  • Nam, Kihwan;Seong, Nohyoon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.33-49
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    • 2018
  • The impact of TV Drama success on TV Rating and the channel promotion effectiveness is very high. The cultural and business impact has been also demonstrated through the Korean Wave. Therefore, the early prediction of the blockbuster success of TV Drama is very important from the strategic perspective of the media industry. Previous studies have tried to predict the audience ratings and success of drama based on various methods. However, most of the studies have made simple predictions using intuitive methods such as the main actor and time zone. These studies have limitations in predicting. In this study, we propose a model for predicting the popularity of drama by analyzing the customer's viewing pattern based on various theories. This is not only a theoretical contribution but also has a contribution from the practical point of view that can be used in actual broadcasting companies. In this study, we collected data of 280 TV mini-series dramas, broadcasted over the terrestrial channels for 10 years from 2003 to 2012. From the data, we selected the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked 45 TV drama and analyzed the viewing patterns of them by 11-step. The various assumptions and conditions for modeling are based on existing studies, or by the opinions of actual broadcasters and by data mining techniques. Then, we developed a prediction model by measuring the viewing-time distance (difference) using Euclidean and Correlation method, which is termed in our study similarity (the sum of distance). Through the similarity measure, we predicted the success of dramas from the viewer's initial viewing-time pattern distribution using 1~5 episodes. In order to confirm that the model is shaken according to the measurement method, various distance measurement methods were applied and the model was checked for its dryness. And when the model was established, we could make a more predictive model using a grid search. Furthermore, we classified the viewers who had watched TV drama more than 70% of the total airtime as the "passionate viewer" when a new drama is broadcasted. Then we compared the drama's passionate viewer percentage the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked dramas. So that we can determine the possibility of blockbuster TV mini-series. We find that the initial viewing-time pattern is the key factor for the prediction of blockbuster dramas. From our model, block-buster dramas were correctly classified with the 75.47% accuracy with the initial viewing-time pattern analysis. This paper shows high prediction rate while suggesting audience rating method different from existing ones. Currently, broadcasters rely heavily on some famous actors called so-called star systems, so they are in more severe competition than ever due to rising production costs of broadcasting programs, long-term recession, aggressive investment in comprehensive programming channels and large corporations. Everyone is in a financially difficult situation. The basic revenue model of these broadcasters is advertising, and the execution of advertising is based on audience rating as a basic index. In the drama, there is uncertainty in the drama market that it is difficult to forecast the demand due to the nature of the commodity, while the drama market has a high financial contribution in the success of various contents of the broadcasting company. Therefore, to minimize the risk of failure. Thus, by analyzing the distribution of the first-time viewing time, it can be a practical help to establish a response strategy (organization/ marketing/story change, etc.) of the related company. Also, in this paper, we found that the behavior of the audience is crucial to the success of the program. In this paper, we define TV viewing as a measure of how enthusiastically watching TV is watched. We can predict the success of the program successfully by calculating the loyalty of the customer with the hot blood. This way of calculating loyalty can also be used to calculate loyalty to various platforms. It can also be used for marketing programs such as highlights, script previews, making movies, characters, games, and other marketing projects.

The Study on the Effect of Target Volume in DQA based on MLC log file (MLC 로그 파일 기반 DQA에서 타깃 용적에 따른 영향 연구)

  • Shin, Dong Jin;Jung, Dong Min;Cho, Kang Chul;Kim, Ji Hoon;Yoon, Jong Won;Cho, Jeong Hee
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.32
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    • pp.53-59
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to compare and analyze the difference between the MLC log file-based software (Mobius) and the conventional phantom-ionization chamber (ArcCheck) dose verification method according to the change of target volume. Material and method: Radius 0.25cm, 0.5cm, 1cm, 2cm, 3cm, 4cm, 5cm, 6cm, 7cm, 8cm, 9cm, 10cm with a Sphere-shaped target Twelve plans were created and dose verification using Mobius and ArcCheck was conducted three times each. The irradiated data were compared and analyzed using the point dose error value and the gamma passing rate (3%/3mm) as evaluation indicators. Result: Mobius point dose error values were -9.87% at a radius of 0.25cm and -4.39% at 0.5cm, and the error value was within 3% at the remaining target volume. The gamma passing rate was 95% at a radius of 9cm and 93.9% at 10cm, and a passing rate of more than 95% was shown in the remaining target volume. In ArcCheck, the average error value of the point dose was about 2% in all target volumes. The gamma passing rate also showed a pass rate of 98% or more in all target volumes. Conclusion: For small targets with a radius of 0.5cm or less or a large target with a radius of 9cm or more, considering the uncertainty of DQA based on MLC log files, phantom-ionized DQA is used in complementary ways to include point dose, gamma index, DVH, and target coverage. It is believed that it is desirable to verify the dose delivery through a comprehensive analysis.

Analysis of the Long-Range Transport Contribution to PM10 in Korea Based on the Variations of Anthropogenic Emissions in East Asia using WRF-Chem (WRF-Chem 모델을 활용한 동아시아의 인위적 배출량 변동에 따른 한국 미세 먼지 장거리 수송 기여도 분석)

  • Lee, Hyae-Jin;Cho, Jae-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.283-302
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    • 2022
  • Despite the nationwide COVID-19 lockdown in China since January 23, 2020, haze days with high PM10 levels of 88-98 ㎍ m-3 occurred on February 1 and 2, 2020. During these haze days, the East Asian region was affected by a warm and stagnant air mass with positive air temperature anomalies and negative zonal wind anomalies at 850 hPa. The Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) was used to analyze the variation of regional PM10 aerosol transport in Korea due to decreased anthropogenic emissions in East Asia. The base experiment (BASE), which applies the basic anthropogenic emissions in the WRF-Chem model, and the control experiment (CTL) applied by reducing the anthropogenic emission to 50%, were used to assess uncertainty with ground-based PM10 measurements in Korea. The index of agreement (IOA) for the CTL simulation was 0.71, which was higher than that of BASE (0.67). A statistical analysis of the results suggests that anthropogenic emissions were reduced during the COVID-19 lockdown period in China. Furthermore, BASE and CTL applied to zero-out anthropogenic emissions outside Korea (BASE_ZEOK and CTL_ZEOK) were used to analyze the variations of regional PM10 aerosol transport in Korea. Regional PM10 transport in CTL was reduced by only 10-20% compared to BASE. Synthetic weather variables may be another reason for the non-linear response to changes in the contribution of regional transport to PM10 in Korea with the reduction of anthropogenic emissions in East Asia. Although the regional transport contribution of other inorganic aerosols was high in CTL (80-90%), sulfate-nitrate-ammonium (SNA) aerosols showed lower contributions of 0-20%, 30-60%, and 30-60%, respectively. The SNA secondary aerosols, particularly nitrates, presumably declined as the Chinese lockdown induced traffic.

The effect of climate change on hydroelectric power generation of multipurpose dams according to SSP scenarios (SSP 시나리오에 따른 기후변화가 다목적댐 수력발전량에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Wang, Sizhe;Kim, Jiyoung;Kim, Yongchan;Kim, Dongkyun;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.7
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    • pp.481-491
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    • 2024
  • Recent droughts make hydroelectric power generation (HPG) decreasing. Due to climate change in the future, the frequency and intensity of drought are expected to increase, which will increase uncertainty of HPG in multi-purpose dams. Therefore, it is necessary to estimate the amount of HPG according to climate change scenarios and analyze the effect of drought on the amount of HPG. This study analyzed the future HPG of the Soyanggang Dam and Chungju Dam according to the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Regression equations for HPG were developed based on the observed data of power generation discharge and HPG in the past provided by My Water, and future HPGs were estimated according to the SSP scenarios. The effect of drought on the amount of HPG was investigated based on the drought severity calculated using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). In this study, the future SPIs were calculated using precipitation data based on four GCM models (CanESM5, ACCESS-ESM1-5, INM-CM4-8, IPSL-CM6A) provided through the environmental big data platform. Overall results show that climate change had significant effects on the amount of HPG. In the case of Soyanggang Dam, the amount of HPG decreased in the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario the CanESM model showed a 65% reduction in 2031, and under the SSP5-8.5 scenario the ACCESS-ESM1-5 model showed a 54% reduction in 2029. In the case of Chungju Dam, under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios the average monthly HPG compared to the reference period showed a decreasing trend except for INM-CM4 model.