• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty

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Error Analysis of Image Velocimetry According to the Variation of the Interrogation Area (상관영역 크기 변화에 따른 영상유속계의 오차 분석)

  • Kim, Seojun;Yu, Kwonkyu;Yoon, Byungman
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.8
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    • pp.821-831
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    • 2013
  • Recently image velocimetries, including particle image velocimetry (PIV) and surface image velocimetry (SIV), are often used to measure flow velocities in laboratories and rivers. The most difficult point in using image velocimetries may be how to determine the sizes of the interrogation areas and the measurement uncertainties. Especially, it is a little hard for unskilled users to use these instruments, since any standardized measuring techniques or measurement uncertainties are not well evaluated. Sometimes the user's skill and understanding on the instruments may make a wide gap between velocity measurement results. The present study aims to evaluate image velocimetry's uncertainties due to the changes in the sizes of interrogation areas and searching areas with the error analyses. For the purpose, we generated 12 series of artificial images with known velocity fields and various numbers and sizes of particles. The analysis results showed that the accuracy of velocity measurements of the image velocimetry was significantly affected by the change of the size of interrogation area. Generally speaking, the error was reduced as the size of interrogation areas became small. For the same sizes of interrogation areas, the larger particle sizes and the larger number of particles resulted smaller errors. Especially, the errors of the image velocimetries were more affected by the number of particles rather than the sizes of them. As the sizes of interrogation areas were increased, the differences between the maximum and the minimum errors seemed to be reduced. For the size of the interrogation area whose average errors were less than 5%, the differences between the maximum and the minimum errors seemed a little large. For the case, in other words, the uncertainty of the velocity measurements of the image velocimetry was large. In the viewpoint of the particle density, the size of the interrogation area was small for large particle density cases. For the cases of large number of particle and small particle density, however, the minimum size of interrogation area became smaller.

Characteristics of the Graded Wildlife Dose Assessment Code K-BIOTA and Its Application (단계적 야생동식물 선량평가 코드 K-BIOTA의 특성 및 적용)

  • Keum, Dong-Kwon;Jun, In;Lim, Kwang-Muk;Kim, Byeong-Ho;Choi, Yong-Ho
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.252-260
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    • 2015
  • This paper describes the technical background for the Korean wildlife radiation dose assessment code, K-BIOTA, and the summary of its application. The K-BIOTA applies the graded approaches of 3 levels including the screening assessment (Level 1 & 2), and the detailed assessment based on the site specific data (Level 3). The screening level assessment is a preliminary step to determine whether the detailed assessment is needed, and calculates the dose rate for the grouped organisms, rather than an individual biota. In the Level 1 assessment, the risk quotient (RQ) is calculated by comparing the actual media concentration with the environmental media concentration limit (EMCL) derived from a bench-mark screening reference dose rate. If RQ for the Level 1 assessment is less than 1, it can be determined that the ecosystem would maintain its integrity, and the assessment is terminated. If the RQ is greater than 1, the Level 2 assessment, which calculates RQ using the average value of the concentration ratio (CR) and equilibrium distribution coefficient (Kd) for the grouped organisms, is carried out for the more realistic assessment. Thus, the Level 2 assessment is less conservative than the Level 1 assessment. If RQ for the Level 2 assessment is less than 1, it can be determined that the ecosystem would maintain its integrity, and the assessment is terminated. If the RQ is greater than 1, the Level 3 assessment is performed for the detailed assessment. In the Level 3 assessment, the radiation dose for the representative organism of a site is calculated by using the site specific data of occupancy factor, CR and Kd. In addition, the K-BIOTA allows the uncertainty analysis of the dose rate on CR, Kd and environmental medium concentration among input parameters optionally in the Level 3 assessment. The four probability density functions of normal, lognormal, uniform and exponential distribution can be applied.The applicability of the code was tested through the participation of IAEA EMRAS II (Environmental Modeling for Radiation Safety) for the comparison study of environmental models comparison, and as the result, it was proved that the K-BIOTA would be very useful to assess the radiation risk of the wildlife living in the various contaminated environment.

A Study on Forecasting Accuracy Improvement of Case Based Reasoning Approach Using Fuzzy Relation (퍼지 관계를 활용한 사례기반추론 예측 정확성 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, In-Ho;Shin, Kyung-Shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.67-84
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    • 2010
  • In terms of business, forecasting is a work of what is expected to happen in the future to make managerial decisions and plans. Therefore, the accurate forecasting is very important for major managerial decision making and is the basis for making various strategies of business. But it is very difficult to make an unbiased and consistent estimate because of uncertainty and complexity in the future business environment. That is why we should use scientific forecasting model to support business decision making, and make an effort to minimize the model's forecasting error which is difference between observation and estimator. Nevertheless, minimizing the error is not an easy task. Case-based reasoning is a problem solving method that utilizes the past similar case to solve the current problem. To build the successful case-based reasoning models, retrieving the case not only the most similar case but also the most relevant case is very important. To retrieve the similar and relevant case from past cases, the measurement of similarities between cases is an important key factor. Especially, if the cases contain symbolic data, it is more difficult to measure the distances. The purpose of this study is to improve the forecasting accuracy of case-based reasoning approach using fuzzy relation and composition. Especially, two methods are adopted to measure the similarity between cases containing symbolic data. One is to deduct the similarity matrix following binary logic(the judgment of sameness between two symbolic data), the other is to deduct the similarity matrix following fuzzy relation and composition. This study is conducted in the following order; data gathering and preprocessing, model building and analysis, validation analysis, conclusion. First, in the progress of data gathering and preprocessing we collect data set including categorical dependent variables. Also, the data set gathered is cross-section data and independent variables of the data set include several qualitative variables expressed symbolic data. The research data consists of many financial ratios and the corresponding bond ratings of Korean companies. The ratings we employ in this study cover all bonds rated by one of the bond rating agencies in Korea. Our total sample includes 1,816 companies whose commercial papers have been rated in the period 1997~2000. Credit grades are defined as outputs and classified into 5 rating categories(A1, A2, A3, B, C) according to credit levels. Second, in the progress of model building and analysis we deduct the similarity matrix following binary logic and fuzzy composition to measure the similarity between cases containing symbolic data. In this process, the used types of fuzzy composition are max-min, max-product, max-average. And then, the analysis is carried out by case-based reasoning approach with the deducted similarity matrix. Third, in the progress of validation analysis we verify the validation of model through McNemar test based on hit ratio. Finally, we draw a conclusion from the study. As a result, the similarity measuring method using fuzzy relation and composition shows good forecasting performance compared to the similarity measuring method using binary logic for similarity measurement between two symbolic data. But the results of the analysis are not statistically significant in forecasting performance among the types of fuzzy composition. The contributions of this study are as follows. We propose another methodology that fuzzy relation and fuzzy composition could be applied for the similarity measurement between two symbolic data. That is the most important factor to build case-based reasoning model.

A Study on Electron Dose Distribution of Cones for Intraoperative Radiation Therapy (수술중 전자선치료에 있어서 선량분포에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Wee-Saing;Ha, Sung-Whan;Yun, Hyong-Geun
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 1992
  • For intraoperative radiation therapy using electron beams, a cone system to deliver a large dose to the tumor during surgical operation and to save the surrounding normal tissue should be developed and dosimetry for the cone system is necessary to find proper X-ray collimator setting as well as to get useful data for clinical use. We developed a docking type of a cone system consisting of two parts made of aluminum: holder and cone. The cones which range from 4cm to 9cm with 1cm step at 100cm SSD of photon beam are 28cm long circular tubular cylinders. The system has two 26cm long holders: one for the cones larger than or equal to 7cm diamter and another for the smaller ones than 7cm. On the side of the holder is an aperture for insertion of a lamp and mirror to observe treatment field. Depth dose curve. dose profile and output factor at dept of dose maximum. and dose distribution in water for each cone size were measured with a p-type silicone detector controlled by a linear scanner for several extra opening of X-ray collimators. For a combination of electron energy and cone size, the opening of the X-ray collimator was caused to the surface dose, depths of dose maximum and 80%, dose profile and output factor. The variation of the output factor was the most remarkable. The output factors of 9MeV electron, as an example, range from 0.637 to 1.549. The opening of X-ray collimators would cause the quantity of scattered electrons coming to the IORT cone system. which in turn would change the dose distribution as well as the output factor. Dosimetry for an IORT cone system is inevitable to minimize uncertainty in the clinical use.

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Computer Assisted EPID Analysis of Breast Intrafractional and Interfractional Positioning Error (유방암 방사선치료에 있어 치료도중 및 분할치료 간 위치오차에 대한 전자포탈영상의 컴퓨터를 이용한 자동 분석)

  • Sohn Jason W.;Mansur David B.;Monroe James I.;Drzymala Robert E.;Jin Ho-Sang;Suh Tae-Suk;Dempsey James F.;Klein Eric E.
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.24-31
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    • 2006
  • Automated analysis software was developed to measure the magnitude of the intrafractional and interfractional errors during breast radiation treatments. Error analysis results are important for determining suitable planning target volumes (PTV) prior to Implementing breast-conserving 3-D conformal radiation treatment (CRT). The electrical portal imaging device (EPID) used for this study was a Portal Vision LC250 liquid-filled ionization detector (fast frame-averaging mode, 1.4 frames per second, 256X256 pixels). Twelve patients were imaged for a minimum of 7 treatment days. During each treatment day, an average of 8 to 9 images per field were acquired (dose rate of 400 MU/minute). We developed automated image analysis software to quantitatively analyze 2,931 images (encompassing 720 measurements). Standard deviations ($\sigma$) of intrafractional (breathing motion) and intefractional (setup uncertainty) errors were calculated. The PTV margin to include the clinical target volume (CTV) with 95% confidence level was calculated as $2\;(1.96\;{\sigma})$. To compensate for intra-fractional error (mainly due to breathing motion) the required PTV margin ranged from 2 mm to 4 mm. However, PTV margins compensating for intefractional error ranged from 7 mm to 31 mm. The total average error observed for 12 patients was 17 mm. The intefractional setup error ranged from 2 to 15 times larger than intrafractional errors associated with breathing motion. Prior to 3-D conformal radiation treatment or IMRT breast treatment, the magnitude of setup errors must be measured and properly incorporated into the PTV. To reduce large PTVs for breast IMRT or 3-D CRT, an image-guided system would be extremely valuable, if not required. EPID systems should incorporate automated analysis software as described in this report to process and take advantage of the large numbers of EPID images available for error analysis which will help Individual clinics arrive at an appropriate PTV for their practice. Such systems can also provide valuable patient monitoring information with minimal effort.

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Development of Industrial Embedded System Platform (산업용 임베디드 시스템 플랫폼 개발)

  • Kim, Dae-Nam;Kim, Kyo-Sun
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea CI
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    • v.47 no.5
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    • pp.50-60
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    • 2010
  • For the last half a century, the personal computer and software industries have been prosperous due to the incessant evolution of computer systems. In the 21st century, the embedded system market has greatly increased as the market shifted to the mobile gadget field. While a lot of multimedia gadgets such as mobile phone, navigation system, PMP, etc. are pouring into the market, most industrial control systems still rely on 8-bit micro-controllers and simple application software techniques. Unfortunately, the technological barrier which requires additional investment and higher quality manpower to overcome, and the business risks which come from the uncertainty of the market growth and the competitiveness of the resulting products have prevented the companies in the industry from taking advantage of such fancy technologies. However, high performance, low-power and low-cost hardware and software platforms will enable their high-technology products to be developed and recognized by potential clients in the future. This paper presents such a platform for industrial embedded systems. The platform was designed based on Telechips TCC8300 multimedia processor which embedded a variety of parallel hardware for the implementation of multimedia functions. And open-source Embedded Linux, TinyX and GTK+ are used for implementation of GUI to minimize technology costs. In order to estimate the expected performance and power consumption, the performance improvement and the power consumption due to each of enabled hardware sub-systems including YUV2RGB frame converter are measured. An analytic model was devised to check the feasibility of a new application and trade off its performance and power consumption. The validity of the model has been confirmed by implementing a real target system. The cost can be further mitigated by using the hardware parts which are being used for mass production products mostly in the cell-phone market.

Revisiting the cause of unemployment problem in Korea's labor market: The job seeker's interests-based topic analysis (취업준비생 토픽 분석을 통한 취업난 원인의 재탐색)

  • Kim, Jung-Su;Lee, Suk-Jun
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.85-116
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    • 2016
  • The present study aims to explore the causes of employment difficulty on the basis of job applicant's interest from P-E (person-environment) fit perspective. Our approach relied on a textual analytic method to reveal insights from their situational interests in a job search during the change of labor market. Thus, to investigate the type of major interests and psychological responses, user-generated texts in a social community were collected for analysis between January 1, 2013 through December 31, 2015 by crawling the online-community in regard to job seeking and sharing information and opinions. The results of topic analysis indicated user's primary interests were divided into four types: perception of vocation expectation, employment pre-preparation behaviors, perception of labor market, and job-seeking stress. Specially, job applicants put mainly concerns of monetary reward and a form of employment, rather than their work values or career exploration, thus youth job applicants expressed their psychological responses using contextualized language (e.g., slang, vulgarisms) for projecting their unstable state under uncertainty in response to environmental changes. Additionally, they have perceived activities in the restricted preparation (e.g., certification, English exam) as determinant factors for success in employment and suffered form job-seeking stress. On the basis of these findings, current unemployment matters are totally attributed to the absence of pursing the value of vocation and job in individuals, organizations, and society. Concretely, job seekers are preoccupied with occupational prestige in social aspect and have undecided vocational value. On the other hand, most companies have no perception of the importance of human resources and have overlooked the needs for proper work environment development in respect of stimulating individual motivation. The attempt in this study to reinterpret the effect of environment as for classifying job applicant's interests in reference to linguistic and psychological theories not only helps conduct a more comprehensive meaning for understanding social matters, but guides new directions for future research on job applicant's psychological factors (e.g., attitudes, motivation) using topic analysis.

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Legal Status of Space Weaponization (우주공간에서의 무기배치와 사용의 법적 지위)

  • Shin, Hong-Kyun
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.247-276
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    • 2017
  • The protection of space asset has been new major cause of space militarization. For such purpose, it has been officially announced that a policy of deterring and denying any adversaries from accessing the outer space. Space militarization is to be conversed into a new concept of space weaponization. The USA has announced its policy of space weaponization, while China and Russia have not revealed their plan or policy. Latter States, however, have proposed a draft treaty limiting the deployment of warfare in the outer space. The terms of the Outer Space Treaty, reflecting three significant United Nations General Assembly resolutions from the 1960s, support the position that ground rules must be observed in the exploration and the use of outer space, particularly in the absence of specific space law rules. Yet the combination (and culmination) of these two approaches to the legal regulation of outer space-specific rules as and when agreed by the international community and the translation of principles developed for terrestrial regulation to outer space-still leaves much room for uncertainty and exploitation for military and strategic purposes. As space weaponization may contribute to deterring the use of weapon, it may be not against the UN Charter Article 2(4). If space weaponization might generate the space debris such that the outer space is no more available for exploration and use, it is against the proportionality principle and discrimination principle enshrined in the laws of the war. But, if the limitation upon the kind and use of space weaponization is agreed among the States, then the space weaponization may not be against the laws of the war, and be considered permissible within the rationale of limited war.

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A Study on Floating Offshore LNG Bunkering System and its Economic Analysis (해상부유식 LNG 벙커링 시스템 R&D사업의 경제성 분석)

  • Seo, Sunyae;Cho, Sungwoo
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.69-89
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    • 2014
  • The business performance of port industry is steadily getting worse due to international environmental regulation. The port industry should be prepared according to ambient condition change. IMO(International Maritime Organization) is tightening up environmental regulation of vessel and maritime industry field. ECA(Emission Control Area), starting with the Baltic, has initialized and has been expanded. Korea must strengthen the control of vessel in accordance with IMO's restriction, if Korea is designated as emission control area. These situations cause the expansion of LNG-fuelled ships. Add to the larger trend of ships, Korean government should be done a preemptive action against LNG bunkering industry. This study proposes the concept of floating offshore LNG bunkering system and is conducted its economic feasibility evaluation based on empirical analysis. We examine the theoretical foundation and basic information via "A Planning Study on the Engineering Development of Floating Offshore LNG Bunkering Terminal" in 2013 and we evaluate the business potential by using the report above mentioned. The results of this study are as follows. The values of B/C analysis are between 0.679 and 2.516 depending on market share and R&D contributiveness. In case of 10.9%(market share), if market share are 50% and 60%, the value of B/C analysis are 0.697 and 0.837 respectively. Except in two cases, all remaining values are over 1.0. Moreover, the research is conducted sensitivity analysis to remove the project uncertainty. In order to maintain economical validity, a project manager have to establish business strategies which are not to cause increase of expense and sustain market share and R&D contributiveness in the scenario with normal levels.

The Limitation of Air Carriers' Cargo and Baggage Liability in International Aviation Law: With Reference to the U.S. Courts' Decisions (국제항공법상 화물.수하물에 대한 운송인의 책임상한제도 - 미국의 판례 분석을 중심으로 -)

  • Moon, Joon-Jo
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.109-133
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    • 2007
  • The legal labyrinth through which we have just walked is one in which even a highly proficient lawyer could easily become lost. Warsaw Convention's original objective of uniformity of private international aviation liability law has been eroded as the world community ha attempted again to address perceived problems. Efforts to create simplicity and certainty of recovery actually may have created less of both. In any particular case, the issue of which international convention, intercarrier agreement or national law to apply will likely be inconsistent with other decisions. The law has evolved faster for some nations, and slower for others. Under the Warsaw Convention of 1929, strict liability is imposed on the air carrier for damage, loss, or destruction of cargo, luggage, or goods sustained either: (1) during carriage in air, which is comprised of the period during which cargo is 'in charge of the carrier (a) within an aerodrome, (b) on board the aircraft, or (c) in any place if the aircraft lands outside an aerodrome; or (2) as a result of delay. By 2007, 151 nations had ratified the original Warsaw Convention, 136 nations had ratified the Hague Protocol, 84 had ratified the Guadalajara Protocol, and 53 nations had ratified Montreal Protocol No.4, all of which have entered into force. In November 2003, the Montreal Convention of 1999 entered into force. Several airlines have embraced the Montreal Agreement or the IATA Intercarrier Agreements. Only seven nations had ratified the moribund Guatemala City Protocol. Meanwhile, the highly influential U.S. Second Circuit has rendered an opinion that no treaty on the subject was in force at all unless both affected nations had ratified the identical convention, leaving some cases to fall between the cracks into the arena of common law. Moreover, in the United States, a surface transportation movement prior or subsequent to the air movement may, depending upon the facts, be subject to Warsaw, or to common law. At present, International private air law regime can be described as a "situation of utter chaos" in which "even legal advisers and judges are confused." The net result of this barnacle-like layering of international and domestic rules, standards, agreements, and criteria in the elimination of legal simplicity and the substitution in its stead of complexity and commercial uncertainty, which manifestly can not inure to the efficient and economical flow of world trade. All this makes a strong case for universal ratification of the Montreal Convention, which will supersede the Warsaw Convention and its various reformulations. Now that the Montreal Convention has entered into force, the insurance community may press the airlines to embrace it, which in turn may encourage the world's governments to ratify it. Under the Montreal Convention, the common law defence is available to the carrier even when it was not the sole cause of the loss or damage, again making way for the application of comparative fault principle. Hopefully, the recent entry into force of the Montreal Convention of 1999 will re-establish the international legal uniformity the Warsaw Convention of 1929 sought to achieve, though far a transitional period at least, the courts of different nations will be applying different legal regimes.

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