• 제목/요약/키워드: Uncertain Process

검색결과 331건 처리시간 0.024초

A Study on the Smart Region Strategy in Yellow Sea Rim (환황해권 스마트리전 구축방안 연구)

  • Lim, Dong Sung;Kim, June Bong;Leem, Yountaik
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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    • 제35권3호
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    • pp.7-23
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    • 2019
  • Smart cities are expanding their spatial scope to urban areas and regions. Linking regional economic development strategies beyond the borders with smart city planning can lead to cooperation and economic development between regions and countries as well. The purpose of this study is to suggest cooperation and regional development of the three nations - Korea, North Korea and China - through the Yellow Sea Rim Smart Region. To this end, smart city strategies and economic development plan with implementation status in the three countries including special economic zones have analyzed that could be the spatial basis of the smart region. On the west coast of Korea facing the Yellow Sea, lots of projects related to smart cities are actively underway in Saemangeum, Yellow Sea Free Economic Zone(YESFEZ), and Incheon Free Economic Zone(IFEZ). Although the political situation is still uncertain, North Korea is analyzed to have economic and technical potential in the west coast connecting Haeju, Nampo, and Sinuiju. In Liaoning and Shandong provinces of China, smart city projects have been actively promoted in recent years especially in the state-supporting industrial cities. Restoration of economic cooperation between South Korea and China, linkage of transportation networks, vitalization of cross-border cooperation projects between China and North Korea centered on Dandong and Sinuiju, and the connecting of smart city infrastructure and services for China and South Korea's economic cooperation process will make the Yellow Sea Rim as a world prosperous economic region. However, it is necessary to establish and operate a governance system through long-term planning for transnational consultation and establishment of a promotion organization.

Sequential Bayesian Updating Module of Input Parameter Distributions for More Reliable Probabilistic Safety Assessment of HLW Radioactive Repository (고준위 방사성 폐기물 처분장 확률론적 안전성평가 신뢰도 제고를 위한 입력 파라미터 연속 베이지안 업데이팅 모듈 개발)

  • Lee, Youn-Myoung;Cho, Dong-Keun
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • 제18권2호
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    • pp.179-194
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    • 2020
  • A Bayesian approach was introduced to improve the belief of prior distributions of input parameters for the probabilistic safety assessment of radioactive waste repository. A GoldSim-based module was developed using the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm and implemented through GSTSPA (GoldSim Total System Performance Assessment), a GoldSim template for generic/site-specific safety assessment of the radioactive repository system. In this study, sequential Bayesian updating of prior distributions was comprehensively explained and used as a basis to conduct a reliable safety assessment of the repository. The prior distribution to three sequential posterior distributions for several selected parameters associated with nuclide transport in the fractured rock medium was updated with assumed likelihood functions. The process was demonstrated through a probabilistic safety assessment of the conceptual repository for illustrative purposes. Through this study, it was shown that insufficient observed data could enhance the belief of prior distributions for input parameter values commonly available, which are usually uncertain. This is particularly applicable for nuclide behavior in and around the repository system, which typically exhibited a long time span and wide modeling domain.

Prediction of ground-condition ahead of tunnel face using electromagnetic wave - analytical study (전자기파를 이용한 터널전방 예측 -해석기법 중심으로)

  • Choi, Jun-Su;Cho, Gye-Chun;Lee, Geun-Ha;Yoon, Ji-Nam
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • 제6권4호
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    • pp.327-343
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    • 2004
  • During tunnel construction, ground failures often occur due to existence of weak zones, such as faults, joints, and cavities, ahead of tunnel face. It is hard to detect effectively weak zones, which can lead underground structure to fail after excavation and before supporting, by using conventional characterization methods. In this study, an enhanced analytical method of predicting weak zones ahead of tunnel face is developed to overcome some problems in the conventional geophysical exploration methods. The analytical method is based on Coulomb's and Gauss' laws with considering the characteristics of electric fields subjected to rock mass. Using the developed method, closed form solutions are obtained to detect a spherical shaped zone and an oriented fault ahead of tunnel face respectively. The analytical results suggest that the presence of weak zones and their sizes, location, and states can be accurately predicted by combining a proper inversion process with resistance measured from several electrodes on the tunnel face. It appears that the skin depth or resistivity in rock mass is affected by the diameter of tunnel face, natural electric potential and noises induced by experimental measurement and spatial distribution of uncertain properties. The developed analytical solution is verified through experimental tests. About 1800 concrete blocks of 5cm by 5cm by 5cm in size are prepared and used to model a joint rock mass around tunnel face. Weak zones are simulated ahead of tunnel face with a material which has relatively higher conductivity than concrete blocks. Experimental results on the model test show a good agreement with analytical results.

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Key Factors of the Utilization and Improvement in the National-level Technology Roadmap (국가수준 기술로드맵의 활용도 및 개선사항 영향요인)

  • Park, Sang-Moon;Byun, Do-Young;Son, Seok-Ho
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • 제10권1호
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    • pp.143-164
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    • 2007
  • This paper investigates key factors on the utilization and improvement directions of national-level technology roadmaps for technology strategies. There are increasing interest in technology roadmaps to respond to uncertain environment and explore some possible directions of future technology development. To challenge the catching-up status in innovation, technology roadmap have been widely developed both in private and public sectors. In spite of recent increasing adoption of technology roadmap, there are few empirical studies on the level of utilization and improvement directions of technology roadmap with the viewpoints from science and technology experts in national innovation system. Most of studies on technology roadmaps have argued normative recommendations and made suggestions based on case studies. This paper examines the key factors on the utilization and future direction of national-level technology roadmaps. Based on survey from 320 experts in science and technology area, this paper analyzes the level of utilitation and future improvements of national level technology roadmap. The level of technological capabilities and participation experience on the roadmap development process have significant impact on the utilization of national-level technology roadmaps. Also there are three future directions to increase the usage of national-level technology roadmaps. The national-level technology roadmap should be improved as a more systematic processes including planning, progress, and outputs. Finally, this paper suggests some implications and future guidelines for national-level technology roadmaps.

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Equity-Efficiency Trade-off: the Case of Inheritance Tax (상속세(相續稅)에 있어서의 형평(衡平)과 효율성(效率性)의 괴리(乖離))

  • Moon, Hyung-pyo
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • 제12권4호
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    • pp.97-111
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    • 1990
  • This paper examines the effect of redistributive inheritance tax on income distribution and social welfare. The model used here is the Overlapping-Generations Model consisting of individuals with different bequest motives where the lifetime income distribution in each cohort is determined endogeneously by the dynamic bequest process. It is shown that the introduction of redistributive inheritance tax can improve the vertical equity in the sense that the increase in tax rate reduces the coefficient of variations of intra-cohort income distribution in steady-state. However, it is also shown that, the effect on social welfare, when measured by Benthamite SWF, is uncertain in general. The numerical simulations show that, in spite of its equity-enhancing effect, the tax increase can actually lower the steady-state social welfare within the plausible range of parametric values, through the long-run output effect as well as the deadweight welfare loss incurred by tax distortion. Hence, the problem of equity-efficiency trade-off can arise in this case. However, if both the market interest rate and the elasticity of marginal utility in individual's preference function are sufficiently high, it is shown to be possible that the steady-state social welfare is enhanced by the introduction of inheritance tax.

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Edge Feature Extract CBIRS for Car Retrieval : CBIRS/EFI (차량 검색을 위한 측면 에지 특징 추출 내용기반 검색 : CBIRS/EFI)

  • Koo, Gun-Seo
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • 제15권11호
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    • pp.75-82
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    • 2010
  • The paper proposed CBIRS/EFI with contents based search technique using edge feature information of the object from image information of the object which is uncertain. In order to search specially efficiently case of partial image information of the object, we used the search technique which extracts outline information and color information in feature information of object. In order to experiment this, we extracted side edge feature information of the vehicle for feature information of the object after capture the car image of the underground garage. This is the system which applies a contents base search by the result which analyzes the image which extracts a feature, an original image to search and a last similar measurement result. This system compared in FE-CBIRS systems which are an existing feature extraction contents base image retrieval system and the function which improves the accuracy and an effectiveness of search rate was complemented. The performance appraisal of CBIRS/EFI systems applied edge extraction feature information and color information of the cars. And we compared a color feature search time, a shape characteristic search time and a search rate from the process which searches area feature information. We extracted the case 91.84% of car edge feature extraction rate. And a average search time of CBIRS/EFI is showing a difference of average 0.4-0.9 seconds than FE-CBIRS from vehicle. color search time, shape characteristic search time and similar search time. So, it was proven with the fact that is excellent.

Machine Allocation Based on Salvage Value for Minimizing Purchasing Costs of Consumable Auxiliary Tools (소모성 보조 장비 구입비용 최소화를 위한 잔존가치 기반의 장비 할당 문제)

  • Yoon, Sung-Wook;Jeong, Suk-Jae
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • 제23권4호
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    • pp.51-64
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    • 2014
  • Small and medium Enterprises (SMEs), which have a manufacturing method of small quantity batch production produce goods using a general-purpose equipment and attached auxiliary tools. Many previous studies have focused on finding the effective resource allocations for improving the firms' productivity. It is very important for SMEs to keep costs low in assigning jobs to each resource, because they should meet the future uncertain demand of consumers under the limited budget. Using the concept of salvage cost, this paper proposes how to effectively allocate the tasks to main resources in the production process. The salvage cost is defined that purchasing cost minus decrease in value by workload, the method considering this is expected to reduce total purchasing costs during business period. To validate the effect of the proposed method, we proceed the real case study targeting on S company, PCB manufacturer to compare purchase amounts and its costs between the allocation proposed based salvage cost and current allocation method of current S company. As a results, In short-term (3 year) business period, salvage allocation have remarkable superior outcome to existing method, but gradually have cancelled out the effects in long-term (8 year) plans. Unlike the cycle allocation method, there exists the idle-equipments in allocation based salvage value. we additionally analyze the profits with respect to rental strategy of them during business period.

A Study on Comparative Analysis of Socio-economic Impact Assessment Methods on Climate Change and Necessity of Application for Water Management (기후변화의 사회경제적 영향평가 방법론 비교분석과 물관리 부문 적용 필요성에 관한연구)

  • Chee, Hee Mun;Park, Doo Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of societal Security
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    • 제4권2호
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    • pp.57-64
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    • 2011
  • Although it is uncertain that the cause of changed pattern of the natural disaster related to water (i.e. flood and drought) is due to excessive carbon dioxide yielded from economic activity or the increased number of sunspots, it is apparent that there have been unusual climate change that directly affects the water resource management. Due to such a frequent unusual weather activities, there have been increased natural disaster and the most direct and major reason is considered as climate change. As we see, the climate change necessarily causes social costs. Especially, the effects on the water resource due to flood and drought take the considerable part of such costs. Therefore, this study is basic work to develop a new economic analysis technique to be used in pursuing appropriate adaptation project in field of the amount of cost damage through analysis of the effects of the climate change on the water resource. The models appeared in many reports for cost assessment of climate change were various (e.g., PAGE, DICE, AIM, IMAGE, MERGE, and etc.) and this report summarizes general characteristics of each model. To assess the effects of climate change of the water management, we defined the field of the water management on climate change. The results help post-study in field of the climate change's social-economic effect assessment, can be employed for the prioritizing process of the national fund's investment.

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A Regression-Based Estimation of Strain Distribution for Safety Monitoring of the Steel Girder Subjected to Uncertain Loads (불확실한 하중을 받는 강재 보 구조물 안전도 모니터링을 위한 변형률 분포의 회귀 분석적 추정)

  • Lee, Ji Hoon;Choi, Se Woon;Park, Hyo Seon
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • 제17권2호
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    • pp.10-20
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    • 2013
  • To evaluate the safety of a beam structure, strains are measured as an indicator of structural states. However, unless strain sensors are installed exactly on where maximum or other representative strains occur, the techniques by which rational assessment through measured strains is accomplished are required. Thus, this study suggests a process to estimate strain distribution on the steel beam from discrete strains measured by sensors. In the presented technique, the targeted beam is regarded to be subjected to unknown loads so that applicability is enhanced. Final strain distribution is given as form of a function after regression analysis. To verify the performance of estimation, a bending test for steel beam on which distributed and concentrated loads simultaneously act is conducted. From the comparison between estimated and directly measured strains in the test, the curve of strain distribution and the strain at arbitrary location could be predicted within maximum relative error 3.32% and maximum absolute error of $2.32{\mu}{\varepsilon}$, respectively. Thus reliable and practical monitoring is expected to apply effectively for the steel beam structure.

Selective Arbitration Agreement in the multitiered Dispute Resolution Clause (선택적 중재합의와 단계적 분쟁해결조항)

  • 장문철
    • Journal of Arbitration Studies
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    • 제12권2호
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    • pp.263-302
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    • 2003
  • Since new Korean arbitration law was modeledafter UNCITRAL Model Law on International Commercial Arbitration Law, the judicial review on the arbitral award is at most limited to fundamental procedural justice. Thus, drafting valid arbitration clause is paramount important to enforce arbitral awards in the new legal environment. A losing party in arbitral process would often claim of the invalidity of arbitration agreement to challenge the arbitral award. Especially, the validity of arbitration clause in the construction contracts is often challenged in Korean courts. This is because the construction contracts usually include selective arbitration agreement in multi-tiered dispute resolution clause that is drafted ambiguous or uncertain. In this paper selective arbitration agreement means a clause in a contract that provides that party may choose arbitration or litigation to resolve disputes arising out of the concerned contract. On the hand multi-tiered dispute resolution clause means a clause in a contract that provides for distinct stages such as negotiation, mediation or arbitration. However, Korean courts are not in the same position on the validity of selective arbitration agreementin multi-tiered dispute resolution clause. Some courts in first instance recognized its validity on the ground that parties still intend to arbitrate in the contract despite the poor drafted arbitration clause. Other courts reject its validity on the ground that parties did not intend to resort to arbitration only with giving up their right to sue at courts to resolve their disputes by choosing selective arbitration agreement. Several cases are recently on pending at the Supreme Courts, which decision is expected to yield the court's position in uniform way. Having reviewed recent Korean courts' decisions on validity and applicability of arbitration agreement, this article suggests that courts are generally in favor of arbitration system It is also found that some courts' decisions narrowly interpreted the concerned stipulations in arbitration law despite they are in favorable position to the arbitration itself. However, most courts in major countries broadly interpret arbitration clause in favor of validity of selective arbitration agreement even if the arbitration clause is poorly drafted but parties are presume to intend to arbitrate. In conclusion it is desirable that selective arbitration agreement should be interpreted favorable to the validity of arbitration agreement. It is time for Korean courts to resolve this issue in the spirit of UNCITRAL model arbitration law which the new Korean arbitration law is based on.

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