• 제목/요약/키워드: USE IMPACT

검색결과 4,881건 처리시간 0.042초

인공지능이 의사결정에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 : 인간과 인공지능의 협업 및 의사결정자의 성격 특성을 중심으로 (A Study on the Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Decision Making : Focusing on Human-AI Collaboration and Decision-Maker's Personality Trait)

  • 이정선;서보밀;권영옥
    • 지능정보연구
    • /
    • 제27권3호
    • /
    • pp.231-252
    • /
    • 2021
  • 인공지능(Artificial Intelligence)은 미래를 가장 크게 변화시킬 핵심 동력으로 산업 전반과 개인의 일상생활에 다양한 형태로 영향을 미치고 있다. 무엇보다 활용 가능한 데이터가 증가함에 따라 더욱더 많은 기업과 개인들이 인공지능 기술을 이용하여 데이터로부터 유용한 정보를 추출하고 이를 의사결정에 활용하고 있다. 인공지능에 관한 기존 연구는 모방 가능한 업무의 자동화에 초점을 두고 있으나, 인간을 배제한 자동화는 장점 못지않게 알고리즘 편향(Algorithms bias)으로 발생되는 오류나 자율성(Autonomy)의 한계점, 그리고 일자리 대체 등 사회적 부작용을 보여주고 있다. 최근 들어, 인간지능의 강화를 위한 증강 지능 (Augmented intelligence)으로서 인간과 인공지능의 협업에 관한 연구가 주목을 받고 있으며 기업도 관심을 가지기 시작하였다. 본 연구는 의사결정을 위해 조언(Advice)을 제공하는 조언자의 유형을 인간, 인공지능, 그리고 인간과 인공지능 협업의 세 가지로 나누고, 조언자의 유형과 의사결정자의 성격 특성이 의사결정에 미치는 영향을 살펴보았다. 311명의 실험자를 대상으로 사진 속 얼굴을 보고 나이를 예측하는 업무를 진행하였으며, 연구 결과 의사결정자가 조언활용을 하려면 먼저 조언의 유용성을 높게 인지하여하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 의사결정자의 성격 특성이 조언자 유형별로 조언의 유용성을 인지하고 조언을 활용하는 데에 미치는 영향을 살펴본 결과, 인간과 인공지능의 협업 형태인 경우 의사결정자의 성격 특성에 무관하게 조언의 유용성을 더 높게 인지하고 적극적으로 조언을 활용하는 것으로 나타났다. 인공지능 단독으로 활용될 경우에는 성격 특성 중 성실성과 외향성이 강하고 신경증이 낮은 의사결정자가 조언의 유용성을 더 높게 인지하고 조언을 활용하는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 인공지능의 역할을 의사결정과 판단(Decision Making and Judgment) 연구 분야의 조언자의 역할로 보고 관련 연구를 확장하였다는데 학문적 의의가 있으며, 기업이 인공지능 활용 역량을 제고하기 위해 고려해야 할 점들을 제시하였다는데 실무적 의의가 있다.

한국가족계획사업(韓國家族計劃事業)의 문제점(問題點) (Problems in the Korean National Family Planning Program)

  • 홍종관
    • Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
    • /
    • 제2권2호
    • /
    • pp.27-36
    • /
    • 1975
  • The success of the family planning program in Korea is reflected in the decrease in the growth rate from 3.0% in 1962 to 2.0% in 1971, and in the decrease in the fertility rate from 43/1,000 in 1960 to 29/1,000 in 1970. However, it would be erroneous to attribute these reductions entirely to the family planning program. Other socio-economic factors, such as the increasing age at marriage and the increasing use of induced abortions, definitely had an impact on the lowered growth and fertility rate. Despite the relative success of the program to data in meeting its goals, there is no room for complacency. Meeting the goal of a further reduction in the population growth rate to 1.3% by 1981 is a much more difficult task than any one faced in the past. Not only must fertility be lowered further, but the size of the target population itself will expand tremendously in the late seventies; due to the post-war baby boom of the 1950's reaching reproductive ages. Furthermore, it is doubtful that the age at marriage will continue to rise as in the past or that the incidence of induced abortion will continue to increase. Consequently, future reductions in fertility will be more dependent on the performance of the national family planning program, with less assistance from these non-program factors. This paper will describe various approaches to help to the solution of these current problems. 1. PRACTICE RATE IN FAMILY PLANNING In 1973, the attitude (approval) and knowledge rates were quite high; 94% and 98% respectively. But a large gap exists between that and the actual practice rate, which is only 3695. Two factors must be considered in attempting to close the KAP-gap. The first is to change social norms, which still favor a larger family, increasing the practice rate cannot be done very quickly. The second point to consider is that the family planning program has not yet reached all the eligible women. A 1973 study determineded that a large portion, 3096 in fact, of all eligible women do not want more children, but are not practicing family planning. Thus, future efforts to help close the KAP-gap must focus attention and services on this important large group of potential acceptors. 2. CONTINUATION RATES Dissatisfaction with the loop and pill has resulted in high discontinuation rates. For example, a 1973 survey revealed that within the first six months initial loop acceptance. nearly 50% were dropouts, and that within the first four months of inital pill acceptance. nearly 50% were dropouts. These discontinuation rates have risen over the past few years. The high rate of discontinuance obviously decreases the contraceptive effectiveness. and has resulted in many unwanted births which is directly related to the increase of induced abortions. In the future, the family planning program must emphasize the improved quality of initial and follow-up services. rather than more quantity, in order to insure higher continuation rates and thus more effective contraceptive protection. 3. INDUCED ABORTION As noted earlier. the use of induced abortions has been increase yearly. For example, in 1960, the average number of abortions was 0.6 abortions per women in the 15-44 age range. By 1970. that had increased to 2 abortions per women. In 1966. 13% of all women between 15-44 had experienced at least one abortion. By 1971, that figure jumped to 28%. In 1973 alone, the total number of abortions was 400,000. Besides the ever incre.sing number of induced abortions, another change has that those who use abortions have shifted since 1965 to include- not. only the middle class, but also rural and low-income women. In the future. in response to the demand for abortion services among rural and low-income w~men, the government must provide and support abortion services for these women as a part of the national family planning program. 4. TARGET SYSTIi:M Since 1962, the nationwide target system has been used to set a target for each method, and the target number of acceptors is then apportioned out to various sub-areas according to the number of eligible couples in each area. Because these targets are set without consideration for demographic factors, particular tastes, prejudices, and previous patterns of acceptance in the area, a high discontinuation rate for all methods and a high wastage rate for the oral pill and condom results. In the future. to alleviate these problems of the methodbased target system. an alternative. such as the weighted-credit system, should be adopted on a nation wide basis. In this system. each contraceptive method is. assigned a specific number of points based upon the couple-years of protection (CYP) provided by the method. and no specific targets for each method are given. 5. INCREASE OF STERILIZA.TION TARGET Two special projects. the hospital-based family planning program and the armed forces program, has greatly contributed to the increasing acceptance in female and male sterilization respectively. From January-September 1974, 28,773 sterilizations were performed. During the same time in 1975, 46,894 were performed; a 63% increase. If this trend continues, by the end of 1975. approximately 70,000 sterilizations will have been performed. Sterilization is a much better method than both the loop and pill, in terms of more effective contraceptive protection and the almost zero dropout rate. In the future, the. family planning program should continue to stress the special programs which make more sterilizations possible. In particular, it should seek to add the laparoscope techniques to facilitate female sterilization acceptance rates. 6. INCREASE NUMBER OF PRIVATE ACCEPTORS Among the current family planning users, approximately 1/3 are in the private sector and thus do not- require government subsidy. The number of private acceptors increases with increasing urbanization and economic growth. To speed this process, the government initiated the special hospital based family planning program which is utilized mostly by the private sector. However, in the future, to further hasten the increase of private acceptors, the government should encourage doctors in private practice to provide family planning services, and provide the contraceptive supplies. This way, those do utilize the private medical system will also be able to receive family planning services and pay for it. Another means of increasing the number of private acceptors, IS to greatly expand the commercial outlets for pills and condoms beyond the existing service points of drugstores, hospitals, and health centers. 7. IE&C PROGRAM The current preferred family size is nearly twice as high as needed to achieve a stable poplation. Also, a strong boy preference hinders a small family size as nearly all couples fuel they must have at least one or more sons. The IE&C program must, in the future, strive to emphasize the values of the small family and equality of the sexes. A second problem for the IE&C program to work. with in the: future is the large group of people who approves family planning, want no more children, but do not practice. The IE&C program must work to motivate these people to accept family planning And finally, for those who already practice, an IE&C program in the future must stress continuation of use. The IE&C campaign, to insure highest effectiveness, should be based on a detailed factor analysis of contraceptive discontinuance. In conclusion, Korea faces a serious unfavorable sociodemographic situation- in the future unless the population growth rate can be curtailed. And in the future, the decrease in fertility will depend solely on the family planning program, as the effect of other socio-economic factors has already been maximumally felt. A second serious factor to consider is the increasing number of eligible women due to the 1950's baby boom. Thus, to meet these challenges, the program target must be increased and the program must improve the effectiveness of its current activities and develop new programs.

  • PDF

가족계획과 모자보건 통합을 위한 조산원의 투입효과 분석 -서산지역의 개입연구 평가보고- (An Intervention Study on Integration of Family Planning and Maternal/Infant Care Services in Rural Korea)

  • 방숙;한성현;이정자;안문영;이인숙;김은실;김종호
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
    • /
    • 제20권1호
    • /
    • pp.165-203
    • /
    • 1987
  • This project was a service-cum-research effort with a quasi-experimental study design to examine the health benefits of an integrated Family Planning (FP)/Maternal & Child health (MCH) Service approach that provides crucial factors missing in the present on-going programs. The specific objectives were: 1) To test the effectiveness of trained nurse/midwives (MW) assigned as change agents in the Health Sub-Center (HSC) to bring about the changes in the eight FP/MCH indicators, namely; (i)FP/MCH contacts between field workers and their clients (ii) the use of effective FP methods, (iii) the inter-birth interval and/or open interval, (iv) prenatal care by medically qualified personnel, (v) medically supervised deliveries, (vi) the rate of induced abortion, (vii) maternal and infant morbidity, and (viii) preinatal & infant mortality. 2) To measure the integrative linkage (contacts) between MW & HSC workers and between HSC and clients. 3) To examine the organizational or administrative factors influencing integrative linkage between health workers. Study design; The above objectives called for quasi-experimental design setting up a study and control area with and without a midwife. An active intervention program (FP/MCH minimum 'package' program) was conducted for a 2 year period from June 1982-July 1984 in Seosan County and 'before and after' surveys were conducted to measure the change. Service input; This study was undertaken by the Soonchunhyang University in collaboration with WHO. After a baseline survery in 1981, trained nurses/midwives were introduced into two health sub-centers in a rural setting (Seosan county) for a 2 year period from 1982 to 1984. A major service input was the establishment of midwifery services in the existing health delivery system with emphasis on nurse/midwife's role as the link between health workers (nurse aids) and village health workers, and the referral of risk patients to the private physician (OBGY specialist). An evaluation survey was made in August 1984 to assess the effectiveness of this alternative integrated approach in the study areas in comparison with the control area which had normal government services. Method of evaluation; a. In this study, the primary objective was first to examine to what extent the FP/MCH package program brought about changes in the pre-determined eight indicators (outcome and impact measures) and the following relationship was first analyzed; b. Nevertheless, this project did not automatically accept the assumption that if two or more activities were integrated, the results would automatically be better than a non-integrated or categorical program. There is a need to assess the 'integration process' itself within the package program. The process of integration was measured in terms of interactive linkages, or the quantity & quality of contacts between workers & clients and among workers. Intergrative linkages were hypothesized to be influenced by organizational factors at the HSC clinic level including HSC goals, sltrurture, authority, leadership style, resources, and personal characteristics of HSC staff. The extent or degree of integration, as measured by the intensity of integrative linkages, was in turn presumed to influence programme performance. Thus as indicated diagrammatically below, organizational factors constituted the independent variables, integration as the intervening variable and programme performance with respect to family planning and health services as the dependent variable: Concerning organizational factors, however, due to the limited number of HSCs (2 in the study area and 3 in the control area), they were studied by participatory observation of an anthropologist who was independent of the project. In this observation, we examined whether the assumed integration process actually occurred or not. If not, what were the constraints in producing an effective integration process. Summary of Findings; A) Program effects and impact 1. Effects on FP use: During this 2 year action period, FP acceptance increased from 58% in 1981 to 78% in 1984 in both the study and control areas. This increase in both areas was mainly due to the new family planning campaign driven by the Government for the same study period. Therefore, there was no increment of FP acceptance rate due to additional input of MW to the on-going FP program. But in the study area, quality aspects of FP were somewhat improved, having a better continuation rate of IUDs & pills and more use of effective Contraceptive methods in comparison with the control area. 2. Effects of use of MCH services: Between the study and control areas, however, there was a significant difference in maternal and child health care. For example, the coverage of prenatal care was increased from 53% for 1981 birth cohort to 75% for 1984 birth cohort in the study area. In the control area, the same increased from 41% (1981) to 65% (1984). It is noteworthy that almost two thirds of the recent birth cohort received prenatal care even in the control area, indicating that there is a growing demand of MCH care as the size of family norm becomes smaller 3. There has been a substantive increase in delivery care by medical professions in the study area, with an annual increase rate of 10% due to midwives input in the study areas. The project had about two times greater effect on postnatal care (68% vs. 33%) at delivery care(45.2% vs. 26.1%). 4. The study area had better reproductive efficiency (wanted pregancies with FP practice & healthy live births survived by one year old) than the control area, especially among women under 30 (14.1% vs. 9.6%). The proportion of women who preferred the 1st trimester for their first prenatal care rose significantly in the study area as compared to the control area (24% vs 13%). B) Effects on Interactive Linkage 1. This project made a contribution in making several useful steps in the direction of service integration, namely; i) The health workers have become familiar with procedures on how to work together with each other (especially with a midwife) in carrying out their work in FP/MCH and, ii) The health workers have gotten a feeling of the usefulness of family health records (statistical integration) in identifying targets in their own work and their usefulness in caring for family health. 2. On the other hand, because of a lack of required organizational factors, complete linkage was not obtained as the project intended. i) In regards to the government health worker's activities in terms of home visiting there was not much difference between the study & control areas though the MW did more home visiting than Government health workers. ii) In assessing the service performance of MW & health workers, the midwives balanced their workload between 40% FP, 40% MCH & 20% other activities (mainly immunization). However, $85{\sim}90%$ of the services provided by the health workers were other than FP/MCH, mainly for immunizations such as the encephalitis campaign. In the control area, a similar pattern was observed. Over 75% of their service was other than FP/MCH. Therefore, the pattern shows the health workers are a long way from becoming multipurpose workers even though the government is pushing in this direction. 3. Villagers were much more likely to visit the health sub-center clinic in the study area than in the control area (58% vs.31%) and for more combined care (45% vs.23%). C) Organization factors (admistrative integrative issues) 1. When MW (new workers with higher qualification) were introduced to HSC, it was noted that there were conflicts between the existing HSC workers (Nurse aids with less qualification than MW) and the MW for the beginning period of the project. The cause of the conflict was studied by an anthropologist and it was pointed out that these functional integration problems stemmed from the structural inadequacies of the health subcenter organization as indicated below; i) There is still no general consensus about the objectives and goals of the project between the project staff and the existing health workers. ii) There is no formal linkage between the responsibility of each member's job in the health sub-center. iii) There is still little chance for midwives to play a catalytic role or to establish communicative networks between workers in order to link various knowledge and skills to provide better FP/MCH services in the health sub-center. 2. Based on the above findings the project recommended to the County Chief (who has power to control the administrative staff and the technical staff in his county) the following ; i) In order to solve the conflicts between the individual roles and functions in performing health care activities, there must be goals agreed upon by both. ii) The health sub·center must function as an autonomous organization to undertake the integration health project. In order to do that, it is necessary to support administrative considerations, and to establish a communication system for supervision and to control of the health sub-centers. iii) The administrative organization, tentatively, must be organized to bind the health worker's midwive's and director's jobs by an organic relationship in order to achieve the integrative system under the leadership of health sub-center director. After submitting this observation report, there has been better understanding from frequent meetings & communication between HW/MW in FP/MCH work as the program developed. Lessons learned from the Seosan Project (on issues of FP/MCH integration in Korea); 1) A majority or about 80% of the couples are now practicing FP. As indicated by the study, there is a growing demand from clients for the health system to provide more MCH services than FP in order to maintain the achieved small size of family through FP practice. It is fortunate to see that the government is now formulating a MCH policy for the year 2,000 and revising MCH laws and regulations to emphasize more MCH care for achieving a small size family through family planning practice. 2) Goal consensus in FP/MCH shouBd be made among the health workers It administrators, especially to emphasize the need of care of 'wanted' child. But there is a long way to go to realize the 'real' integration of FP into MCH in Korea, unless there is a structural integration FP/MCH because a categorical FP is still first priority to reduce the rate of population growth for economic reasons but not yet for health/welfare reasons in practice. 3) There should be more financial allocation: (i) a midwife should be made available to help to promote the MCH program and coordinate services, (in) there should be a health sub·center director who can provide leadership training for managing the integrated program. There is a need for 'organizational support', if the decision of integration is made to obtain benefit from both FP & MCH. In other words, costs should be paid equally to both FP/MCH. The integration slogan itself, without the commitment of paying such costs, is powerless to advocate it. 4) Need of management training for middle level health personnel is more acute as the Government has already constructed 90 MCH centers attached to the County Health Center but without adequate manpower, facilities, and guidelines for integrating the work of both FP and MCH. 5) The local government still considers these MCH centers only as delivery centers to take care only of those visiting maternity cases. The MCH center should be a center for the managment of all pregnancies occurring in the community and the promotion of FP with a systematic and effective linkage of resources available in the county such as i.e. Village Health Worker, Community Health Practitioner, Health Sub-center Physicians & Health workers, Doctors and Midwives in MCH center, OBGY Specialists in clinics & hospitals as practiced by the Seosan project at primary health care level.

  • PDF

질소수지에 의한 환경특성과 영농방법별 벼농사의 수질영향 평가 (Estimation of Rice Cultivation Impacts on Water Environment with Environmental Characteristics and Agricultural Practices by Nitrogen Balances)

  • 노기안;김민경;고병구;김건엽;심교문;이덕배
    • 한국토양비료학회지
    • /
    • 제42권6호
    • /
    • pp.439-446
    • /
    • 2009
  • 벼농사가 수질에 미치는 영향을 평가하기 위하여 지역별 논의 질소수지를 평가하였다. 질소의 유입량은 비료 시용량, 강우 및 관개에 의한 수계공급량, 토양질소의 무기화량 및 질소 고정량 등을 합하여 추정하였고, 질소의 유출량은 배출수나 지하침투수를 통한 수계유출량, 암모니아 휘산과 탈질에 의한 대기 중으로의 손실량, 무기질소의 유기화 및 작물에 의한 흡수량을 합하여 평가하였다. 지역별 환경 특성은 토양 중 유기물함량, 쌀 수확량, 관개수 중의 질소함량, 토양통 분포면적에 의한 토양침투속도 등을 이용하여 추정하였다. 지역별로 환경특성을 고려하여 벼농사가 수질에 미치는 영향을 평가한 결과 경기도와 충청남도의 질소 수지가 각각 -5.4와 $-8.3kg\;ha^{-1}\;yr^{-1}$으로 이 지역에서의 벼농사는 주변 수계로부터 질소를 흡수하여 농업에 활용하는 수질정화의 기능이 다른 지역에 비해 상대적으로 큰 것으로 평가되었다. 반면 강원도와 경상남도는 각각 4.9와 $14.0kg\;ha^{-1}\;yr^{-1}$ 으로 유입량보다 유출량이 오히려 많아 질소를 배출하는 것으로 평가되었다. 시비량이 $110kg\;ha^{-1}$로 동일하다는 조건하에 우리나라 관개수 중의 질소함량이 평균 $1mg\;L^{-1}$ 증가할 경우 벼농사는 $-2.9kg\;ha^{-1}\;yr^{-1}$의 수질 개선효과가 있으며, 전국적으로는 벼논의 질소 흡수량이 연간 2,616 Mg이나 증가하는 것으로 추정되었으며, 농업용수의 오염도가 상대적으로 높은 도시인근 지역이 관개수가 깨끗한 지역보다 벼농사에 의한 수질정화 효과가 크다는 것을 알 수 있었다. 동일한 수확량 조건에서 시비량을 $110kg\;ha^{-1}$에서 $90kg\;ha^{-1}$으로 줄일 경우 질소정화 기능은 전국적으로 10,600 Mg이 증가하고 수질정화 기능을 수행하는 면적도 확대됨을 알 수 있었다. 또한, 쌀 수확량 $5,000kg\;ha^{-1}$을 100%로 가정할 경우 질소 시비량은 $110kg\;ha^{-1}$, 수확량이 100%인 경우 질소수지는 $-0.3kg\;ha^{-1}$이었지만 시비량을 $90kg\;ha^{-1}$으로 줄이고 수확량도 100%에서 90%와 85%로 줄이면 질소수지는 각각 -11.7, -2.3 및 $2.4kg \;ha^{-1}$으로 시비량을 줄여도 수확량을 동시에 줄이면 질수수지의 개선효과가 떨어지며, 수량을 85%로 줄이면 수질에 미치는 영향을 나타내는 질소수지는 $110kg\;ha^{-1}$을 시비할 때보다 오히려 더 나빠지는 것으로 평가되었다. 이상의 결과들로 볼 때 벼농사가 수질환경에 미치는 영향은 관개수 수질, 토양물리 및 화학성 등의 자연환경에 따라 달라지므로 지역의 자연환경 특성을 최대로 활용하여, 벼 재배에 의한 수질정화기능을 최대로 활용하는 영농기술도입이 필요한 것으로 판단된다. 또한 현재 시비량을 줄이고 이에 따라 수확량도 줄어들 것이라는 전제의 영농방법으로서는 벼농사에 의한 수질오염 방지를 효과적으로 달성할 수 없으며, 시비량은 줄이되 토양과 관개수 중의 영양물질을 최대한으로 활용하여 최고의 수확량을 유지하는 것이 벼농사의 주변 수계에 대한 오염물질 발생을 줄이고 수질정화 기능을 증대시키는 가장 좋은 친환경농업라고 판단된다.

백운산(白雲山) 성숙활엽수림(成熟闊葉樹林) 개벌수확지(皆伐收穫地)에서 벌출직후(伐出直後)의 환경변화(環境變化) (Environmental Changes after Timber Harvesting in (Mt.) Paekunsan)

  • 박재현
    • 한국산림과학회지
    • /
    • 제84권4호
    • /
    • pp.465-478
    • /
    • 1995
  • 이 연구(硏究)는 성숙활엽수림(成熟闊葉樹林) 개벌수확지(皆伐收種地)에서 벌채(伐採)로 인한 산림환경변화량(山林環境變化量)을 조사하여 산림환경(山林環境)을 구성(構成)하는 인자들에 미치는 벌출(伐出)의 영향을 정량적(定量的)으로 분석(分析)함으로써, 산림환경(山林環境)에 미치는 임목수확작업(林木收穫作業)의 영향(影響)을 구명(究明)할 목적으로 1993년부터 1994년까지 전남(全南) 광양(光陽) 백운산(白雲山) 지역(地域) 천연활엽수림(天然闊葉樹林) 벌채지(伐採地)(서울대학교(大學校) 농업생명과학대학(農業生命科學大學) 부속(附屬) 남부연습림내(南部演習林內) 제(第) 26임반(林班))에서 수행되었다. 이 연구를 위하여 1993년에 벌채한 13ha의 벌채지(伐採地)와 이와 연접한 비벌채지(非伐採地), 그리고 벌채지(伐採地)에 개설(開設)한 약 2.6km의 운재로(運材路)를 조사(調査) 연구대상지(硏究對象地)로 선정하였다. 이 연구지(硏究地)에서 1993년부터 1994년까지 식생(植生), 토양미소동물(土壤微小動物), 강수량(降水量), 토양(土壤)의 이화학성분(理化學成分), 표면유출수량(表面流出水量), 계류수질(溪流水質), 산지사면(山地斜面) 침식량(侵蝕量) 등을 측정(測定) 분석(分析)하여 얻은 결과(結果)를 요약(要約)하면 다음과 같다. 벌채후(伐採後) 2년간 하층식생(下層植生)의 종수(種數)와 종다양도지수(種多樣度指數)는 증가하였으며, 종구성 상태는 비벌채지(非伐採地)와 상이(相異)하였다. 또한, 벌채지(伐採地) 토양(土壤)에서 용적밀도(容積密度)와 토양경도(土壤硬度)는 증가(增價)하였으며, 이 기간(期間) 동안 벌채지(伐採地)에서 토양유기물(土壤有機物), 전질소(全窒素), 유효인산(有效燐酸), 양이온치환용량(置換容量), 치환성(置換性)이온인 ($K^+$, $Na^+$, $Ca^{{+}{+}}$, $Mg^{{+}{+}}$ 등은 벌채전(伐採前)보다 감소하여 토양의 완충능력(緩衝能力)은 감소하는 것으로 해석(解析)되었다. 벌채지(伐採地)의 토양미소동물중(土壤微小動物中) 톡톡이류나 응애류의 개체수(個體數)는 비벌채지(非伐採地)보다 당년도에 평균(平均) 5배 증가하였다. 반면, 다음 해에는 벌채(伐採) 당년도보다 감소하였지만, 비벌채지(非伐採地)보다는 많은 경향을 보였다. 한편, 토양미소동물(土壤微小動物)의 변화에 유의(有意)한 영향을 미치는 주요인자는 토양수분(土壤水分), 토양(土壤)의 용적밀도(容積密度), $Mg^{{+}{+}}$ 이온, 양이온치환용량, 그리고 토양깊이 5(0~10)cm에서의 지중온도(地中溫度) 순(順)이었다. 강수(降水)의 표면유출수량(表面流出水量)은 벌채(伐採) 당년도에는 비벌채지(非伐採地)보다 28%, 다음 해에는 24.5%가 증가하였다. 이 기간(期間)동안 벌채지(伐採地) 유역(流域) 계류수(溪流水)의 BOD, COD, pH 등은 상수원수(上水源水) 1급 기준(基準)의 범위내였고, Cd, Pb, 유기인(有機燐), Cu 등 중금속(重金屬)은 검출(檢出)되지 않았으며, 음용수(飮用水) 8개 항목은 먹는 물 수질기준(水質基準) 1급의 범위내에 있었다. 또한, 벌채지(伐採地)에서 산지사면(山地斜面) 침식량(侵蝕量)은 벌채(伐採) 당년도에는 비벌채지(非伐採地)의 0.73ton/ha/yr 보다 약 7배, 다음 해에는 비벌채지(非伐採地)의 0.48ton/ha/yr 보다 약 2배 많은 것으로 나타났다. 이상의 결과(結果)를 종합해 볼 때, 대규모(大規模) 벌출작업(伐出作業)으로 인한 환경변화(環境變化)는 환경구성인자(環境構成因子)들에 영향을 미칠 뿐만 아니라 이들 영향인자들은 상호간에 밀접한 상관관계(相關關係)를 이루고 있음을 알 수 있다. 따라서 대규모(大規模) 임목수확계획시(林木收穫計劃時)에는 환경변화(環境變化)에 대한 영향을 고려한 잔존수림대(殘存樹林帶) 배치(配置), 토양침식(土壤浸蝕), 수질보전(水質保全) 등의 연구(硏究)가 지속적으로 수행(遂行)되어야 할 것이다.

  • PDF

경영분석지표와 의사결정나무기법을 이용한 유상증자 예측모형 개발 (Development of Predictive Models for Rights Issues Using Financial Analysis Indices and Decision Tree Technique)

  • 김명균;조윤호
    • 지능정보연구
    • /
    • 제18권4호
    • /
    • pp.59-77
    • /
    • 2012
  • 기업의 성장성, 수익성, 안정성, 활동성, 생산성 등에 대한 다양한 분석이 은행, 신용평가기관, 투자자 등 많은 이해관계자에 의해 실시되고 있고, 이에 대한 다양한 경영분석 지표들 또한 정기적으로 발표되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 경영분석 지표를 이용하여 어떤 기업이 가까운 미래에 유상증자를 실시하는지를 데이터마이닝을 통해 예측하고자 한다. 본 연구를 통해 어떠한 지표가 유상증자 여부를 예측하는데 도움이 되는가를 살펴 볼 것이며, 그 지표들을 이용하여 예측할 경우 그 예측의 정확도가 어느 정도인지를 분석하고자 한다. 특히 1997년 IMF 금융위기 전후로 유상증자를 결정하는 변수들이 변화하는지, 그리고 예측의 정확성에 분명한 차이가 존재하는지 분석한다. 또한 유상증자 실시 시기를 경영분석 지표 발표 후 1년 내, 1~2년 내, 2~3년 내로 나누어 예측 시기에 따라 예측의 정확성과 결정 변수들의 차이가 존재하는지도 분석한다. 658개의 유가증권상장법인의 경영분석 데이터를 이용하여 실증 분석한 결과, IMF 이후의 유상증자 예측모형이 IMF 이전의 예측모형에 비해 예측 정확도가 높았고, 학습용 데이터의 예측 정확도와 검증용 데이터의 예측 정확도 차이도 IMF 이후가 낮게 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 IMF 이후 재무자료의 정확도가 높아졌고, 기업에게 유상증자의 목적이 더욱 명확해졌다고 해석될 수 있다. 또한 예측기간이 단기인 경우 경영분석 지표 중 안전성에 관련된 지표들의 중요성이 부각되었고, 장기인 경우에는 수익성과 안전성뿐만 아니라 활동성과 생산성 관련지표도 유상증자를 예측하는 데 중요한 것으로 파악되었다. 그리고 모든 예측모형에서 산업코드가 유상증자를 예측하는 중요변수로 포함되었는데 이는 산업별로 서로 다른 유상증자 유형이 존재한다는 점을 시사한다. 본 연구는 투자자나 재무담당자가 유상증자 여부를 장단기 시점에서 예측하고자 할 때 어떠한 경영분석지표를 고려하여 분석하는 것이 바람직한지에 대한 지침을 제공하는데 그 의의가 있다.

Computer Aided Innovation 역량이 연구개발역량에 미치는 효과: 국내 중소기업을 대상으로 (The Effects of the Computer Aided Innovation Capabilities on the R&D Capabilities: Focusing on the SMEs of Korea)

  • 심재억;변무장;문효곤;오재인
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
    • /
    • 제23권3호
    • /
    • pp.25-53
    • /
    • 2013
  • This study analyzes the effect of Computer Aided Innovation (CAI) to improve R&D Capabilities empirically. Survey was distributed by e-mail and Google Docs, targeting CTO of 235 SMEs. 142 surveys were returned back (rate of return 60.4%) from companies. Survey results from 119 companies (83.8%) which are effective samples except no-response, insincere response, estimated value, etc. were used for statistics analysis. Companies with less than 50billion KRW sales of entire researched companies occupy 76.5% in terms of sample traits. Companies with less than 300 employees occupy 83.2%. In terms of the type of company business Partners (called 'partners with big companies' hereunder) who work with big companies for business occupy 68.1%. SMEs based on their own business (called 'independent small companies') appear to occupy 31.9%. The present status of holding IT system according to traits of company business was classified into partners with big companies versus independent SMEs. The present status of ERP is 18.5% to 34.5%. QMS is 11.8% to 9.2%. And PLM (Product Life-cycle Management) is 6.7% to 2.5%. The holding of 3D CAD is 47.1% to 21%. IT system-holding and its application of independent SMEs seemed very vulnerable, compared with partner companies of big companies. This study is comprised of IT infra and IT Utilization as CAI capacity factors which are independent variables. factors of R&D capabilities which are independent variables are organization capability, process capability, HR capability, technology-accumulating capability, and internal/external collaboration capability. The highest average value of variables was 4.24 in organization capability 2. The lowest average value was 3.01 in IT infra which makes users access to data and information in other areas and use them with ease when required during new product development. It seems that the inferior environment of IT infra of general SMEs is reflected in CAI itself. In order to review the validity used to measure variables, Factors have been analyzed. 7 factors which have over 1.0 pure value of their dependent and independent variables were extracted. These factors appear to explain 71.167% in total of total variances. From the result of factor analysis about measurable variables in this study, reliability of each item was checked by Cronbach's Alpha coefficient. All measurable factors at least over 0.611 seemed to acquire reliability. Next, correlation has been done to explain certain phenomenon by correlation analysis between variables. As R&D capabilities factors which are arranged as dependent variables, organization capability, process capability, HR capability, technology-accumulating capability, and internal/external collaboration capability turned out that they acquire significant correlation at 99% reliability level in all variables of IT infra and IT Utilization which are independent variables. In addition, correlation coefficient between each factor is less than 0.8, which proves that the validity of this study judgement has been acquired. The pair with the highest coefficient had 0.628 for IT utilization and technology-accumulating capability. Regression model which can estimate independent variables was used in this study under the hypothesis that there is linear relation between independent variables and dependent variables so as to identify CAI capability's impact factors on R&D. The total explanations of IT infra among CAI capability for independent variables such as organization capability, process capability, human resources capability, technology-accumulating capability, and collaboration capability are 10.3%, 7%, 11.9%, 30.9%, and 10.5% respectively. IT Utilization exposes comprehensively low explanatory capability with 12.4%, 5.9%, 11.1%, 38.9%, and 13.4% for organization capability, process capability, human resources capability, technology-accumulating capability, and collaboration capability respectively. However, both factors of independent variables expose very high explanatory capability relatively for technology-accumulating capability among independent variable. Regression formula which is comprised of independent variables and dependent variables are all significant (P<0.005). The suitability of regression model seems high. When the results of test for dependent variables and independent variables are estimated, the hypothesis of 10 different factors appeared all significant in regression analysis model coefficient (P<0.01) which is estimated to affect in the hypothesis. As a result of liner regression analysis between two independent variables drawn by influence factor analysis for R&D capability and R&D capability. IT infra and IT Utilization which are CAI capability factors has positive correlation to organization capability, process capability, human resources capability, technology-accumulating capability, and collaboration capability with inside and outside which are dependent variables, R&D capability factors. It was identified as a significant factor which affects R&D capability. However, considering adjustable variables, a big gap is found, compared to entire company. First of all, in case of partner companies with big companies, in IT infra as CAI capability, organization capability, process capability, human resources capability, and technology capability out of R&D capacities seems to have positive correlation. However, collaboration capability appeared insignificance. IT utilization which is a CAI capability factor seemed to have positive relation to organization capability, process capability, human resources capability, and internal/external collaboration capability just as those of entire companies. Next, by analyzing independent types of SMEs as an adjustable variable, very different results were found from those of entire companies or partner companies with big companies. First of all, all factors in IT infra except technology-accumulating capability were rejected. IT utilization was rejected except technology-accumulating capability and collaboration capability. Comprehending the above adjustable variables, the following results were drawn in this study. First, in case of big companies or partner companies with big companies, IT infra and IT utilization affect improving R&D Capabilities positively. It was because most of big companies encourage innovation by using IT utilization and IT infra building over certain level to their partner companies. Second, in all companies, IT infra and IT utilization as CAI capability affect improving technology-accumulating capability positively at least as R&D capability factor. The most of factor explanation is low at around 10%. However, technology-accumulating capability is rather high around 25.6% to 38.4%. It was found that CAI capability contributes to technology-accumulating capability highly. Companies shouldn't consider IT infra and IT utilization as a simple product developing tool in R&D section. However, they have to consider to use them as a management innovating strategy tool which proceeds entire-company management innovation centered in new product development. Not only the improvement of technology-accumulating capability in department of R&D. Centered in new product development, it has to be used as original management innovative strategy which proceeds entire company management innovation. It suggests that it can be a method to improve technology-accumulating capability in R&D section and Dynamic capability to acquire sustainable competitive advantage.

젊은 한국인 유방암 환자에서 BRCA1/2 돌연변이와 호르몬 수용체, HER-2 상태에 관한 연구 (A Study on BRCA1/2 Mutations, Hormone Status and HER-2 Status in Korean Women with Early-onset Breast Cancer)

  • 최두호;진소영;이동화;김은석;김용호
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
    • /
    • 제26권1호
    • /
    • pp.65-73
    • /
    • 2008
  • 목적: 40세 이하의 젊은 여성 유방암 환자는 나이 든 여성 보다 BRCA1과 BRCA2 배선돌연변이의 빈도가 상대적으로 높다. 유방암 가족력이 있거나 젊은 나이에 유방암을 진단받은 백인 여성들의 BRCA1/2 돌연변이 암에 대한 연구에서 면역조직화학적으로 BRCA1/2 돌연변이 음성인 암과 다른 특성이 발견되었다. 이 연구의 목적은 유방암 가족력과 관계없이 젊은 나이에 유방암이 발생한 한국 여성을 대상으로 BRCA1/2 돌연변이 유뮤에 따라, 그리고 BRCA1과 BRCA2 각각의 돌연변이에 따라 면역조직화학적 특성으로 상호간의 구별이 가능한지, 면역조직화학적 검사로 BRCA1/2 돌연변이의 가능성을 알아보는 것이 가능한지를 조사하는데 있으며 BRCA와 관련된 암의 예후인자로서의 역할도 분석하였다. 대상 및 방법: BRCA1/2 검사를 시행한 40세 이하의 한국인 젊은 여성 유방암 환자의 유방암 수술 후 병리조직을 찾아서 조직미세배열법으로 슬라이드를 만들었다. 이 검체들의 병리조직, 등급, 림프절 전이, T 병기, 에스트로겐 수용체, 프로게스테론 수용체 및 HER-2 상태와 BRCA1/2의 관계를 비교하였다. 그리고 이 환자들의 BRCA 돌연변이 상태와 면역조직학적, 병리학적 상태와 예후 인자로서의 역할도 조사하였다. 결과: BRCA1/2 돌연변이를 조사한 101명 중 14명에서 16개의 돌연변이가 있었으며(13.9%), 유방암-난소암 가족력이 있는 경우(4/14, 28.6%), 양측성 유방암이 있는 경우(3/9, 33.3%)에 BRCA1/2 돌연변이 빈도가 높았다. 에스트로겐 수용체 음성인 경우 BRCA1/2 양성이 19.4%(12/62)로 에스트로겐 수용체 양성 비율 5.1%(2/37)에 비해 유의하게 높았고(p=0.038), HER-2 음성인 경우 BRCA1/2 돌연변이 음성 비율이 16.5%(13/79)로 양성 비율 4.5%(1/22)에 비해 높은 경향을 보였으며(p=0.073), 프로게스테론 수용체는 차이가 없었다. 에스트로겐 수용체, 프로게스테론 수용체 및 HER-2 모두 음성인 경우(triple negative)는 BRCA1/2 돌연변이 비율이 24.2%(8/33)로 매우 높았다. 종양의 크기, 림프절 전이 상태, HER-2 상태는 단변량 변수와 다변량 변수 모두에서 무병 생존에 유의한 영향을 미치는 인자 이었으나 BRCA1/2 돌연변이 상태는 무병생존에 유의한 인자가 아니었다. 결론: 면역조직화학적으로 에스트로겐 수용체나 HER-2 음성을 보이는 젊은 유방암 환자에서 BRCA1/2 돌연변이 발생이 유의하게 높았으며, 프로게스테론 수용체까지 모두 음성인 경우 BRCA1/2 돌연변이가 있을 확률이 24.2%로 높아서 유방암 유전자 돌연변이 가능성을 예측하는데 도움을 줄 수 있다. 한국인 젊은 여성 유방암 환자에서 BRCA1/2 돌연변이 상태가 무병생존에 유의한 인자는 아니었으나 좀 더 많은 환자와 긴 추적관찰 기간의 추가적인 연구가 필요하다.

식물 치사관련 유전자를 이용하는 신규 제초제 작용점 탐색 및 조절물질 개발동향 (A prognosis discovering lethal-related genes in plants for target identification and inhibitor design)

  • 황인택;이동희;최정섭;김태준;김범태;박유신;조광연
    • 농약과학회지
    • /
    • 제5권3호
    • /
    • pp.1-11
    • /
    • 2001
  • 신규 제초제 작용점의 발굴은 유전체학과 조합화학 등 새로운 기술이 등장하여 그 가능성이 높아지고 있다. 대략 $10^{30}$에서 $10^{50}$여 개의 화학물질의 합성이 가능하고 50,000여 개의 식물 유전자 지도가 완성되어 이들의 조합으로 새로운 제초제의 작용점 발굴 가능성이 높아지게 될 것이다. 즉, 고등식물이 가지고 있는 50,000여 개의 유전자 가운데 0.1%, 1.0% 또는 10%가 신규 작용점이 된다면 50, 500, 5000개의 신규 작용점을 발견할 수 있는 것이다. 신규 제초제의 개발을 위해서는 target enzyme의 선택과 결정, 저해제의 설계, 작용점까지 도달하는 과정, 대사적인 운명 등 여러가지 요인들이 검토되어야 한다. 이러한 과정에서 가장 중요한 것은 확실한 작용점의 선택에 있다. 또한 다양한 생화학적 정보를 통하여 작용점/효소의 저해로부터 고사에 이르는 과정을 이해함은 물론 보다 강력한 저해제의 합성과 살초과정을 이해할 수 있어야 할 것이다. 그 동안에는 이미 알려진 작용점을 대상으로 신규 화합물을 합성하거나 유도체를 개발하는 것이 대부분이었지만 최근에는 antisense 기법 등을 활용하여 새로운 치사관련 작용점을 찾아내는데 잠재력과 가능성을 확대시켜주고 있다. 새로운 치사관련 작용점을 발굴한 후에는 대상효소의 화학적, 생화학적 기능과 단백질의 구조를 분석하여 강력한 저해제를 설계하는데 활용하게 될 것이다. 치사관련 돌연변이체와 antisense 기법을 활용하고, 식물 생리학적 반응을 기초로 하여 리드화합물을 탐색하는 것은 새로운 접근방식이며 농약 화학적 특성을 갖는 효소 저해제들의 합성은 크게 6가지로 할 수 있다. 공통특이시얀 기질 유사체 합성, affinity labels, 자살기질체, 반응중간산물, 그리고 extraneous site inhibitors 등을 들 수 있다. 이와 같은 방법으로 후보화합물이 선발된다 하여도 실제식물에 처리하여 흡수, 이행, 대사 등에 관한 시험이 반드시 이루어져야 새로운 제초제를 탄생시킬 수 있다. 또한 약물의 전달과정과 무독화작용을 통하여 pro-herbicide에 대한 연구를 진행하게 될 것이며, 마지막으로 잡초와 작물간의 선택성이 고려되어야 효소 측이적 접근방식에 의한 신규 선택성 제초제의 개발이 성공할 수 있는 것이다.

  • PDF

적응형 행 기준 순서: 변환공간 뷰 조인의 성능 최적화 방법 (Adaptive Row Major Order: a Performance Optimization Method of the Transform-space View Join)

  • 이민재;한욱신;황규영
    • 한국정보과학회논문지:데이타베이스
    • /
    • 제32권4호
    • /
    • pp.345-361
    • /
    • 2005
  • 변환공간 색인이란 원공간 상의 공간 객체들을 변환공간 상의 크기가 없는 점들로 변환하여 색인한 후에 이들을 다루는 구조로, 이를 활용하는 조인 알고리즘은 크기가 없는 점들을 다루기 때문에 최적화가 상대적으로 단순하다는 장점을 가진다. 하지만, R 트리와 같은 원공간 색인에는 적용될 수 없는 단점을 가진다. 이러한 단점을 해결하는 방법으로 저자들 은 변환공간 뷰라는 개념을 사용하여 두 원공간 색인들을 변환공간에서 조인하는 변환공간 뷰 조인 알고리즘(transform-space view) join algorithm)을 제안한 바 있다. 여기서 변환공간 뷰(transform-space view)란 원공간 색인에 대한 가상의 변환공간 색인으로서 이미 구축된 원공간 색인을 구조적으로 변경하지 않고서도 가상의 변환공간 색인으로 해석하여 원공간 색인이 변환공간에서 조인될 수 있게 한다. 변환공간 뷰 조인 알고리즘에서 디스크 페이지 액세스 순서는 공간 채움 곡선에 의해 결정되는데, 이는 조인 성능에 큰 영향을 미친다. 본 논문에서는 변환공간 뷰 조인 알고리즘을 최적화 하는 방법으로 새로운 공간 채움 곡선인 적응형 행 기준 순서(adoptive row major order: ARM order)를 제안한다. 적응형 행 기준 순서는 주어진 버퍼 크기에 따라 디스크 페이지 액세스 순서를 적응적으로 조정하여 원패스 버퍼 크기(한 페이지 당 한번의 디스크 액세스를 보장하는 최소 버퍼 크기)와 디스크 액세스 횟수를 크게 줄인다. 정형적인 분석과 실험을 통하여 적응형 행 기준 순서를 사용하는 변환공간 뷰 조인 알고리즘의 우수성을 보인다. 실험 결과, 다른 공간 채움 곡선을 사용하는 변환공간 뷰 조인 알고리즘과 비교하여 적응형 행 기준 순서는 원패스 버퍼 크기를 최대 21.3배 줄이고, 디스크 액세스 횟수를 최대 $74.6\%$ 줄인다. 또한, R 트리를 원공간에서 조인하는 알고리즘들과 비교하여 원패스 버퍼 크기를 최대 15.7배 줄이고, 디스크 액세스 횟수를 최대 $65.3\%$ 줄인다.