• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.27 no.5
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• pp.137-152
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• 2023

Purpose - Although many existing studies on the US-China hegemonic conflict and decoupling have been published, most of them are qualitative and use descriptive analysis methods. Papers that quantitatively analyzed decoupling mainly estimate the effect of a tariff increase. However, this paper quantitatively analyzed the ripple effect by focusing on decoupling technology spillover between the United States and China. And, for the first time, it was suggested that the blocking of technology spillover could give a fatal blow to the East Asian economy as well as China. Design/methodology - The United States is pursuing decoupling with China, primarily in goods trade and blocking technology transfer. This paper sets up various scenarios and uses three computational general equilibrium (CGE) models to analyze the overall ripple effects of decoupling. A paper using the three CGE models for decoupling ripple effect analysis has not yet been published. Findings - Decoupling will hit the economies of regions with close economic ties to China more than others. According to simulation results of this study, the Chinese economy may suffer severe damage that is difficult to recover from, and the economies of Asian countries are predicted to deteriorate to the point of being choked. Originality/value - Existing papers that assessed the effect of decoupling mostly focus on estimating the effect itself through tariff hikes. This paper is meaningful in that it comprehensively analyzed decoupling by adding the effect of technology spillover blockade. In addition, another meaning can be found in that it quantified for the first time that it will deal a huge blow to the extent of choking the East Asian economy as well as China.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.127-150
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• 2020

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the third pandemic in history after the Hong Kong flu and swine flu. The outbreak of Corona 19 dramatically reduced exchanges between countries, while rapid contagion created a time gap in economic fluctuations by country. In January 2020, the trade dispute between the US and China entered into a consensus phase, but the economic decoupling phenomenon caused by Corona 19 made it difficult for China to balance trade with the US and made it difficult to comply with the terms of the trade dispute agreement between the US and China. President Trump attributed the responsibility for the spread of Corona 19 to China, and pointed out that the cause of the economic downturn was the infringement of Chinese trade secrets and illegal copies, and protectionism arose. As a result, China protested fiercely, and the conflict with the United States deepened. The US has declared trade sanctions on Huawei and SMIC, which are key companies in China's semiconductor industry, and is predicting the risk of a disconnection of the semiconductor value chain between the US and China. The separation of the value chain of the semiconductor industry has the potential to have a big impact on the semiconductor industry, a structure that is highly specialized and monopolized by certain countries and companies in the value chain. This paper aims to deal with the risk of disconnection in the semiconductor value chain between the US and China reignited by Corona 19, the impact and change of the global semiconductor industry value chain, and the response strategies of Korean semiconductor companies.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.488-512
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• 2019

This study examines the 'Asia Decoupling' hypothesis, focusing on changes in trade patterns between regions and countries, based on the latest value added trade statistics. As an analytical tool, indicators that can directly measure the degree of distribution of actual value added were used. Main findings are: Firstly, creating potential at regional level which used to be the growth engine of East Asia until the mid-2000s declined sharply after the global financial crisis. Secondly, in the development pattern of the value added distribution network, no positive change has been detected in the give-out or gain capacity of emerging countries that can generate future growth in East Asia through GVC development. Lastly, China's value added contributing capacity, as different from the hub countries in other regions such as US and Germany, has declined significantly since the mid 2000s, while its capability to benefit greatly increased, and the gain potential of advanced group countries in competition with China is decreasing. We suggest the establishment of intra-regional economic cooperation mechanism including all countries in East Asia for expanding the value creating capacity in the region.

• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.27-59
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• 2023

This study aims to serve as a critical comparison of the currently controversial 'new cold war' discourse. It took three triggers for the 'new cold war' discourse to emerge as a major issue in the media and academia and to have real political impact. With the launch of China's 'Belt and Road' project and Russia's annexation of Crimea leading to the 'Ukraine crisis,' the 'new cold war' discourse has begun to take shape. Trump's U.S.-China trade spat has brought the 'new cold war' debate to the forefront. The 'new cold war' debate is currently being intensified by the Biden administration's framing of "democracy versus authoritarianism" and Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Currently, there is no consensus among scholars on whether the controversial 'new cold war' is a new version, or a continuation of the historically defined concept of the Cold War. The term 'New Cold War' is less of an analytical concept and more of a topical term that has yet to achieve analytical status, let alone a theoretical validation and systematization, and the related debate remains at the level of assertion or discourse. Through this comparative analysis, I will argue that the ongoing discourse of the 'New Cold War' does not have the instrumental explanatory power to analyze the transitional phenomena of the world order today.