• Journal of Korea Trade
• /
• v.23 no.3
• /
• pp.118-137
• /
• 2019

Purpose - As global trade disputes intensify and global trade uncertainty increases due to the prevailing trade protectionism all over the world, mega-FTAs such as the RCEP and CPTPP are suggested as strategic trade policy options for export-driven small open economies, such as Korea. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of Korea's mega-FTA participation and the induced implications for the Korean economy. Design/methodology - We use a multi-region, multi-sector global CGE model, and investigate the different effects of both the US-China and US-EU trade wars on the relative changes in GDP, welfare, and trade under different trade policy regimes; (i) Korea does not participate in any mega-FTA, (ii) Korea participates in the RCEP, and (iii) Korea participates in the CPTPP. Findings - We show, among others, that though industrial effects might be largely varied, the overall enlarging of free trade zones through multilateral mega-FTA participation may contribute significantly to the macroeconomic soundness and stability of Korea, even when global trade protectionism prevails. Under RCEP and CPTPP trade regimes, Korea's GDP may increase even when the global trade environment deteriorates as trade wars occur and intensify between the US and China, or between the US and EU. It is also estimated that RCEP participation increases Korea's GDP, welfare (measured in equivalent variation), and total trade by 1.12%, $1.09 billion, and 2.54%, respectively, while CPTPP participation increases them by 0.19%, $0.92 billion, and 0.13%, respectively. Originality/value - Existing studies usually focus on the direct impacts of mega-FTA participation on macroeconomic variables such as GDP, welfare, and trade, and do not consider the possible buffer effects of a mega-FTA when the global trade environment worsens. In this paper, we analyze and quantify not only the direct impacts of RCEP and CPTPP on the main macroeconomic variables but also the possible buffer effects of the RCEP and CPTPP in the cases of the US-China and US-EU trade wars.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
• /
• v.11 no.2
• /
• pp.82-108
• /
• 2023

As tension escalates between the US and China, scenarios for maintaining peace in Northeast Asia imply that secondary powers will perceive increasing incentives to reappraise their respective international roles. This analysis proposes that an analysis of France's Cold War role in Europe and the world under President Charles de Gaulle provides insights into conflict management in an increasingly multipolar international political environment. Their respective interests in preventing a so-called new Cold War emerging between the US and China include avoiding its excessive economic costs, if only because China is a massive trade partner. This study engages in theoretical framework-informed process tracing of de Gaulle's role. It explicates the assumptions that functionally underpinned de Gaulle's policy of soft balancing between the US and China. The analysis explores de Gaulle's contribution to the decay of the Cold War. It illuminates de Gaulle's contribution to a regional international environment that made West German Chancellor Willy Brandt's Ostpolitik strategy more feasible politically. This study applies these findings in the formulation of strategy recommendations focusing on Japan. Valid inferences regarding the predominant motivations driving American and Chinese international interaction are necessary for this task. To the extent to which the US and China have entered into a conflict spiral, Japan's hedging towards Washington is further incentivized. Tokyo would necessarily need to convince the Chinese that Japan is no longer Washington's unsinkable aircraft carrier off its coast. Tokyo, like de Gaulle's France, would maintain close relations with Washington, but it would need to project to its interlocutors its commitment to its own strategic autonomy. Tokyo's emphasis on closer relations with liberal democratic Indo-Pacific actors would potentially fit well with a commitment to strategic autonomy to defend the global liberal order.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
• /
• v.24 no.9
• /
• pp.127-134
• /
• 2019

The purpose of this study is to understand the purchasing intentions of Chinese consumers to Huawei and other domestic brands in the context of the current Sino-US trade war. Taking the mass consumers as the research object, this paper designs Likert five-level scale to investigate consumers' purchase intention of domestic products in the future, and uses SPSS 23.0 and AMOS 23.0 statistical software to analyze and process statistical data. Using questionnaire survey and exploratory factor analysis, this paper constructs a model to analyze the impact of consumer ethnocentrism on consumers' purchase intention. By summarizing the overall purchasing intention of consumers, it is concluded that the development of domestic brands in the context of trade war is facing difficulties and challenges in the future, but at the same time, we must seize the opportunity of consumers' ethnocentrism under this background to positively influence their purchasing intention, make up for shortcomings, eliminate overcapacity, and seek greater development through technological innovation.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
• /
• v.36 no.4
• /
• pp.93-106
• /
• 2020

Trade is an important economic activity. In particular, since the establishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the scope of trade has been expanding due to events such as the entry of China into the WTO in 2001, the establishment of a multilateral trading system, mitigation and integration of trade barriers, and the establishment of the free trade agreement (FTA). Despite the expansion of the trade market, however, extreme events such as the 2008 global financial crisis, the 2016 Brexit, and the 2018 US-China trade war have had a direct negative impact on the trade market. Therefore, the present this study analyzed the dependence structure between the international shipping freight rate index, a variable representing trade activities, and the trade uncertainty between the US and China. The following is a summary of the analysis results. First, the US-Chinese trade policy uncertainty and international shipping freight rate index presented a Frank copula and rotated Clayton copula 270° distribution, respectively, showing the same distribution structure for each country. Second, the Kendall's tau correlation revealed a negative dependence between the international shipping freight rate index and US-Chinese trade policy uncertainty. The degree of dependence was greater in the combination of uncertainty in China's trade policy and international shipping freight rates. In other words, the dependence of global demand and trade policy uncertainty confirmed that China was stronger than the US. Finally, the tail dependence results revealed that the US-Chinese trade policy uncertainty and international shipping freight rates were independent of each other. This means that extreme events related to the trade policy uncertainty or international shipping rate index were not affected by each other.

• Analyses & Alternatives
• /
• v.2 no.2
• /
• pp.111-141
• /
• 2018

By the middle of 2018 there are signs of China's entry into a new period of development, characterized by a change in the old model: "market reforms-inner-party democratization - moderate foreign policy" to another: "market reforms - Xi Jinping personality cult - offensive foreign policy." This model contains the risks of arising of the contradiction between economic freedom and political-ideological rigidity which can lead to destabilization of the political life. However, in the current positive economic dynamics, these risks may come out, rather, in the medium and long term. Today, the political situation in China remains stable - despite growing dissatisfaction in scientific expert and educational circles due to increased control over the intellectual sphere by the authorities. The need for a new redistribution of power between central and provincial authorities could potentially disrupt political stability in the medium term, but, at the moment, is not a critical negative factor. The economic situation is positive-stable. Forecasts indicate a possible increase in China's GDP in 2018 at 6.5%. At the same time, there are negative expectations in connection with the Sino-US and potentially Sino-European "trade war". In the Chinese foreign policy, as a response to Western pressure, China increasingly uses the Russian direction of its diplomacy in the expanded version of Russia + SCO. The nuance here is seen in China's adjusted approach to the SCO: first of all, not as a mechanism for cooperation with Russia, but as an organization that allows using Russia's potential for pressure on the US in the Sino-US strategic rivalry. In the second half of 2018, the Chinese economy will continue to develop steadily, albeit with unresolved traditional problems (debts of provinces and state-owned enterprises, ineffective state sector, risks on the financial and real estate market). In politics, discontent with the cult of Xi will accumulate, but without real threats to its power. Weakening in economic opposition between China and the United States is possible due to Beijing's search for compromises on tariffs, intellectual property, trade deficit. To find such trade-offs, Xi will use the so-called. "Personal diplomacy" of direct contacts with Trump.

• Cross-Cultural Studies
• /
• v.52
• /
• pp.165-194
• /
• 2018

Employing Fairclough's critical discourse analysis (CDA), the purpose of this study was to analyze linguistically significant features, intertextuality, and sociocultural practice focusing on selected editorials of The Global Times, $Hu{\acute{a}}nqi{\acute{u}}$ Shíbào on the 2018 United States-China Trade War. The editorial titled "With the strong will of 'the War to Resist America and Aid Chosun,' let us go through the trade war against America" focused on the use of 'war' related vocabulary in the frame of 'war.' First, "Trade War" and "War to Resist America and Aid Chosun" are examples that reveal metaphors and a war frame. Second, "Strategy" is used positively for China but negatively towards America. Third, various war related words are used. Fourth, cases of allusion illustrate war. Intertextuality in terms of discourse practice pertains to two findings. First, The Global Times, $Hu{\acute{a}}nqi{\acute{u}}$ Shíbào repeatedly uses the phrase 'equivalent revenge.' That is because the expression enables China to justify their counterattack and such war that China may wage can be interpreted as just counterattack much like a self-defense mechanism. Second, the expression, 'the counterattack is not intended but it is not fearful' is repeated in several editorials of the newspaper. The reasons are the following: 1) it is used to appeal to the public, 2) by invoking the feeling of fear, the public should be understand why they should unite, and 3) the expression, "it is not fearful" is used to preserve China's global image and "the counterattack is not intended" is used to signal China's will to America. The whole expression is a good example of intertextuality that repetitively illustrates the intended meaning of China in nine editorials in the newspaper within three months, March 23-June 17, 2018. Finally, sociocultural practice is manipulated through the editorial for disseminating the Chinese government's hegemonic ideology. First, it is clear that the core national project, "China Manufacturing 2025" cannot be abandoned. Second, by calling for "War to Resist America and Aid Chosun" the editorial is manipulated to condemn and intimidate America, avoid dissent of the people, appeal to the people, and empower the government. Third, China somehow wants to open up the possibility of negotiation with the United Sates.

• Asian review of World Histories
• /
• v.2 no.1
• /
• pp.47-80
• /
• 2014

After the outbreak of the Korean War on June 25, 1950, the US included the Republic of China on Taiwan (Taiwan hereafter) in its Asia-Pacific containment line, and restored the military and economic aid to Taiwan for the sake of regional security. The US aid to the countries along the Asia-Pacific defense line was not only in the form of supplying munitions, but also linked these countries together in an economic dimension. Taiwan is one of the 120 countries which had accepted US aid and also successfully moved from "dependence" to "independently sustained growth." This article will firstly review the historical background of US aid to Taiwan and related institutional development; secondly, this article will illustrate how Taiwan used US aid, and which economic sector the US aid affected; thirdly, it will trace the impact of US aid on Taiwan's foreign trade, and finally, to make a conclusion.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
• /
• v.24 no.3
• /
• pp.420-427
• /
• 2020

The U.S-China disputes have attracted worldwide attention since it took place. However, the disputes between China and the US are no longer limited to the competition in traditional industries, and the competition in 5G industries is becoming more intense. This paper analyzes the reasons for US sanctions on Huawei and puts forward some Suggestions for its countermeasures. With the continuous trade exchanges between China and the United States and the acceleration of China's rise, the related industries in the United States will inevitably be impacted by the related industries in China. Despite U.S. sanctions, the fast speed and effective cost of 5G in China is further improving China's competitiveness. However, under the economic sanctions of the United States, how to survive and further develop China's 5G industry needs in-depth research.

• Analyses & Alternatives
• /
• v.7 no.3
• /
• pp.27-59
• /
• 2023

This study aims to serve as a critical comparison of the currently controversial 'new cold war' discourse. It took three triggers for the 'new cold war' discourse to emerge as a major issue in the media and academia and to have real political impact. With the launch of China's 'Belt and Road' project and Russia's annexation of Crimea leading to the 'Ukraine crisis,' the 'new cold war' discourse has begun to take shape. Trump's U.S.-China trade spat has brought the 'new cold war' debate to the forefront. The 'new cold war' debate is currently being intensified by the Biden administration's framing of "democracy versus authoritarianism" and Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Currently, there is no consensus among scholars on whether the controversial 'new cold war' is a new version, or a continuation of the historically defined concept of the Cold War. The term 'New Cold War' is less of an analytical concept and more of a topical term that has yet to achieve analytical status, let alone a theoretical validation and systematization, and the related debate remains at the level of assertion or discourse. Through this comparative analysis, I will argue that the ongoing discourse of the 'New Cold War' does not have the instrumental explanatory power to analyze the transitional phenomena of the world order today.

• Korea Trade Review
• /
• v.44 no.1
• /
• pp.177-191
• /
• 2019

Global trade protectionism has increased further and U.S. priorities and protectionism have strengthened since Trump took office in 2017. Trump administration is actively implementing tariff measures based on U.S. domestic trade laws rather than the WTO rules and regulations. In particular, the American government has recently been imposing high tariffs due to national security and imposing economic sanctions on other countries' imports. According to the U.S. Trade Expansion Act Section 232, the American government imposed additional tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to WTO member countries such as China, India, and EU etc. on march 15, 2018. Thus, this study aims to investigate whether the U.S. Trade Expansion Act Section 232 is consistent with GATT/WTO rules by comparing the legal basis of US / China / WTO regulations related to Section 232 of the U.S. Trade Expansion Act, and gives some suggestions for responding to the Section 232 measure. As the Section 232 measure exceeded the scope of GATT's Security Exceptions regulation and is very likely to be understood as a safeguard measure. If so, the American government is deemed to be in breach of WTO's regulations, such as the most-favored-nation treatment obligations and the duty reduction obligations. In addition, American government is deemed to be failed to meet the conditions of initiation of safeguard measure and violated the procedural requirements such as notification and consultation. In order to respond to these U.S. protection trade measures, all affected countries should actively use the WTO multilateral system to prevent unfair measures. Also, it is necessary to revise the standard jurisdiction of the dispute settlement body and to explore the balance of the WTO Exception clause so that it can be applied strictly. Finally, it would be necessary for Chinese exporters to take a counter-strategy under such trade pressure.