• 제목/요약/키워드: US monetary policy

검색결과 24건 처리시간 0.019초

일대일로 참여국가에 대한 중국의 무역 의존성 분석과 시사점 (Analysis of China's trade dependency on the countries participating in the Belt and Road initiative)

  • 송민근
    • 디지털융복합연구
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    • 제15권9호
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    • pp.189-200
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    • 2017
  • 본 연구는 중국과 일대일로 사업에 참여하고 있는 국가들의 상호간 무역 의존성을 분석하여 특징과 시사점을 제시하는 것을 연구의 목적으로 하였다. 연구방법으로는 국제통화기금(IMF)과 중국 국가통계국(NBS)에서 각각 200여 국가에 대한 수출입 및 GDP자료를 수집하고 90년대부터 2015년까지 추이를 살폈으며, 무역의존도에서 단방향이 아닌 양방향의 상호 의존성을 분석했다. 개별 국가 GDP에서 중국 무역의존도가 15%이상으로 매우 높은 국가들이 34개국 이상이며, 중국대외 무역에서 미국 및 일본에 대한 수출입 비중이 낮아지고, 중동, 남아프리카, 남미, 동남아시아 등 지역에 대한 비중이 높아지고 있다. 또한, 중국은 일대일로에 참여하는 국가그룹에 대해서 90년대부터 현재까지 약 60% 내외의 수출입비중과 2~30%수준의 무역의존도를 보이고 있다. 일대일로 사업이 본격화되고 있는 시점에서 본 연구는 일대일로 사업 환경 및 중국을 둘러싼 국가들의 무역 관계에 대한 이해, 대응방안 수립 등의 관점에서 의의를 가질 것이며, 일대일로 사업이 진행됨에 따라 주요 국가와 중국의 상호 간 무역 의존성은 더욱 심화될 것으로 예상된다.

국내 가계대출의 특징과 결정요인 분석: COVID-19를 중심으로 (Analysis of Characteristics and Determinants of Household Loans in Korea: Focusing on COVID-19)

  • 장진희;홍재범;최승두
    • 아태비즈니스연구
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    • 제14권2호
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    • pp.51-61
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - Since COVID-19, the government's expansion of liquidity to stimulate the economy has resulted in an increase in private debt and an increase in asset prices of such as real estate and stocks. The recent sharp rise of the US Federal fund rate and tapering by the Fed have led to a fast rise in domestic interest rates, putting a heavy burden on the Korean economy, where the level of household debt is very high. Excessive household debt might have negative effects on the economy, such as shrinking consumption, economic recession, and deepening economic inequality. Therefore, now more than ever, it is necessary to identify the causes of the increase in household debt. Design/methodology/approach - Main methodology is regression analysis. Dependent variable is household loans from depository institutions. Independent variables are consumer price index, unemployment rate, household loan interest rate, housing sales price index, and composite stock price index. The sample periods are from 2017 to May 2022, comprising 72 months of data. The comparative analysis period before and after COVID-19 is from January 2017 to December 2019 for the pre-COVID-19 period, and from Jan 2020 to December 2022 for the post-COVID-19 period. Findings - Looking at the results of the regression analysis for the entire period, it was found that increases in the consumer price index, unemployment rate, and household loan interest rates decrease household loans, while increases in the housing sales price index increase household loans. Research implications or Originality - Household loans of depository institutions are mainly made up of high-credit and high-income borrowers with good repayment ability, so the risk of the financial system is low. As household loans are closely linked to the real estate market, the risk of household loan defaults may increase if real estate prices fall sharply.

한국(韓國)의 물가모형(物價模型) (A Long Run Classical Model of Price Determination)

  • 박우규;김세종
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • 제14권4호
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    • pp.3-26
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    • 1992
  • 본고(本稿)에서는 물가변동(物價變動)의 구조(構造), 주요거시정책변수(主要巨視政策變數)의 변동이 물가에 미치는 영향 및 파급구조(波及構造) 등을 파악하고 물가안정을 위한 적절한 정책대응방안을 제시하기 위하여 물가모형(物價模型)을 작성하였다. Keynesian 거시경제모형(巨視經濟模型) 형태로 작성하되, 임금(賃金), 이자율(利子率), 물가(物價)와 같은 주요가격변수(主要價格變數)를 내생화(內生化)하고 잠재(潛在)GNP의 추정 역시 내생화(內生化)함으로써 가격 및 실물변수의 장기적(長期的) 상호변동관계(相互變動關係)를 파악하였다. 어떠한 충격에 의해 초과수요(超過需要)(실질GNP-잠재GNP)가 변화하면 이는 임금(賃金), 금리(金利), 물가(物價), 실질실효환율(實質實效換率) 등과 같은 가격변수에 영향을 미치고 이는 다시 초과수요(超過需要)를 변동시키는 실물(實物)-가격(價格)-실물(實物)의 순환변동관계(循環變動關係)에 의해 물가가 변동되는 것으로 나타났다. 본 모형(模型)은 Keynesian모형(模型)이나, 장기(長期)에는 고전파적(古典派的)(Classical) 정책함의를 가지는바, 통화공급증가(通貨供給增加), 재정지출증가(財政支出增加), 환율절하(換率切下) 등은 단기(短期)에는 경기부양효과를 가지나 장기(長期)에는 이러한 경기부양효과가 소멸되는 반면 물가(物價)는 높은 수준을 유지하는 결과를 초래하는 것으로 나타났다.

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방화범죄의 실태와 그 대책 - 관심도와 동기의 다양화에 대한 대응 - (The Reserch on Actual Condition of Crime of Arson Which Occurs in Korea and Its Countermeasures)

  • 최종태
    • 시큐리티연구
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    • 제1호
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    • pp.371-408
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    • 1997
  • This article is the reserch on actual condition of crime of arson which occurs in Korea and its countermeasures. The the presented problem in this article are that (1) we have generally very low rate concern about the crime of arson contrary to realistic problems of rapid increase of crime of arson (2) as such criminal motives became so diverse as to the economic or criminal purpose unlike characteristic and mental deficiency of old days, and to countermeasure these problems effectively it presentation the necessity of systemantic research. Based on analysis of reality of arson, the tendency of this arson in Korea in the ratio of increase is said to be higher than those in violence crime or general fire rate. and further its rate is far more greater than those of the U.S.A. and Japan. Arson is considered to be a method of using fire as crime and in case of presently residence to be the abject, it is a public offense crime which aqccompany fatality in human life. This is the well It now fact to all of us. And further in order to presentation to the crime of arson, strictness of criminal law (criminal law No, 164 and 169, and fire protection law No. 110 and 111) and classification of arsonist as felony are institutionary reinforced to punish with certainty of possibility, Therefore, as tendency of arson has been increased compared to other nations, it is necessary to supplement strategical policy to bring out overall concerns of the seriousness of risk and damage of arson, which have been resulted from the lack of understanding. In characteristics analysis of crime of arson, (1) It is now reveald that, in the past such crime rate appeared far more within the boundary of town or city areas in the past, presently increased rate of arsons in rural areas are far more than in the town or small city areas, thereby showing characteristics of crime of arson extending nation wide. (2) general timetable of arson shows that night more than day time rate, and reveald that is trait behavior in secrecy.(3) arsonists are usually arrested at site or by victim or report of third person(82,9%).Investigation activities or self surrenders rate only 11.2%. The time span of arrest is normally the same day of arson and at times it takes more than one year to arrest. This reveals its necessity to prepare for long period of time for arrest, (4) age rate of arson is in their thirties mostly as compared to homicide, robbery and adultery, and considerable numbers of arsons are in old age of over fifties. It reveals age rate is increased (5) Over half of the arsonists are below the junior high school (6) the rate of convicts by thier records is based on first offenders primarily and secondly more than 4 time convicts. This apparently shows necessity of effective correctional education policy for their social assimilation together with re-investigation of human education at the primary and secondary education system in thier life. The examples of motivation for arosnits, such as personal animosity, fury, monetary swindle, luscious purpose and other aims of destroying of proof, and other social resistance, violence including ways of threatening, beside the motives of individual defects, are diverse and arsonic suicide and specifically suicidal accompany together keenly manifested. When we take this fact with the criminal theory, it really reveals arsons of crime are increasing and its casualities are serious and a point as a way of suicide is the anomie theory of Durkheim and comensurate with the theory of that of Merton, Specifically in the arson of industrial complex, it is revealed that one with revolutionary motive or revolting motive would do the arsonic act. For the policy of prevention of arsons, professional research work in organizational cooperation for preventive activities is conducted in municipal or city wise functions in the name of Parson Taskforces and beside a variety of research institutes in federal government have been operating effectively to countermeasure in many fields of research. Franch and Sweden beside the U.S. set up a overall operation of fire prevention research funtions and have obtained very successful result. Japan also put their research likewise for countermeasure. In this research as a way of preventive fire policy, first, it is necessary to accomodate the legal preventitive activities for fire prevention in judicial side and as an administrative side, (1) precise statistic management of crime of arson (2) establishment of professional research functions or a corporate (3) improvement of system for cooperative structural team for investigation of fires and menpower organization of professional members. Secondly, social mentality in individual prospect, recognition of fires by arson and youth education of such effect, educational program for development and practical promotion. Thirdly, in view of environmental side, the ways of actual performance by programming with the establishment of cooperative advancement in local social function elements with administrative office, habitants, school facilities and newspapers measures (2) establishment of personal protection where weak menpowers are displayed in special fire prevention measures. These measures are presented for prevention of crime of arson. The control of crime and prevention shall be prepared as a means of self defence by the principle of self responsibility Specifically arsonists usually aims at the comparatively weak control of fire prevention is prevalent and it is therefore necessary to prepare individual facilities with their spontaneous management of fire prevention instead of public municipal funtures of local geverment. As Clifford L. Karchmer asserted instead of concerns about who would commit arson, what portion of area would be the target of the arson. It is effective to minister spontaveously the fire prevention measure in his facility with the consideration of characteristics of arson. On the other hand, it is necessary for the concerned personnel of local goverment and groups to distribute to the local society in timely manner for new information about the fire prevention, thus contribute to effective result of fire prevention result. In consideration of these factors, it is inevitable to never let coincide with the phemonemon of arsons in similar or mimic features as recognized that these could prevail just an epedemic as a strong imitational attitude. In processing of policy to encounter these problems, it is necessary to place priority of city policy to enhancement of overall concerns toward the definitive essense of crime of arson.

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