• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
• /
• 제25권1호
• /
• pp.1-25
• /
• 2016

본 연구는 조기사망 위험 감소를 위한 지불의사금액에 대한 양분선택형 조건부가치측정(CV) 자료를 이용하여, 자의적인 모수적 분포(즉, 정규분포, 로지스틱분포, 로그정규분포, 지수분포)를 가정하여 도출하는 지불의사금액 대푯값(즉, 평균 내지 중앙값)의 변동성을 비교 검토하였다. 이를 위해 특정 모수적 분포라는 제약을 갖지 않는 Turnbull 비모수적 추정방법(nonparametric estimation method)에 의한 결과를 함께 비교 검토하면, 정책의사결정에서는 인정되기 어려운 수준의 WTP 대푯값들의 변동성이 확인되었다. 한편 Turnbull 비모수적 추정방법에 의한 WTP의 대푯값은 기본적으로 자의적 모수적 분포 가정에 의한 일종의 오지정 편의를 회피할 수 있다. 또한 Turnbull 비모수적 추정방법으로는 단일양분선택형 CV 자료이든 이중양분선택형 CV 자료이든 거의 유사한 추정치를 도출하고, 모수적 분포를 가정한 추정방법으로는 통계적으로 유의한 추정치를 얻지 못하는 상황에서도 통계적으로 유의한 추정치를 얻을 수 있는 강건성(robustness)을 보여주었다. 그러므로 양분선택형 CV 자료에서 특정 모수적 분포의 적합성을 판단하기 어려운 상황에서 자의적 모수적 분포의 가정에서 도출한 WTP의 대푯값들이 상당한 변동성을 보인다면, Turnbull 비모수적 추정방법에 의한 WTP의 평균 추정치가 정책의사결정에서 논란의 여지를 회피할 수 있는 비자의적이고 강건한 추정치가 될 수 있음을 확인할 수 있다.

• 응용통계연구
• /
• 제25권4호
• /
• pp.621-632
• /
• 2012

Recurrent event data can be easily found in longitudinal studies such as clinical trials, reliability fields, and the social sciences; however, there are a few observations that disappear temporarily in sight during the follow-up and then suddenly reappear without notice like the Young Traffic Offenders Program(YTOP) data collected by Farmer et al. (2000). In this article we focused on inference for a cumulative mean function of the recurrent event data with these incomplete observation gaps. Defining a corresponding risk set would be easily accomplished if we know the exact intervals where the observation gaps occur. However, when they are incomplete (if their starting times are known but their terminating times are unknown) we need to estimate a distribution function for the terminating times of the observation gaps. To accomplish this, we treated them as interval-censored and then estimated their distribution using the EM algorithm proposed by Turnbull (1976). We proposed a nonparametric estimator for the cumulative mean function and also a nonparametric test to compare the cumulative mean functions of two groups. Through simulation we investigated the finite-sample performance of the proposed estimator and proposed test. Finally, we applied the proposed methods to YTOP data.

• ETRI Journal
• /
• 제27권6호
• /
• pp.759-767
• /
• 2005

This research is to substantially analyze the economic value of portable Internet (WiBro), WCDMA High Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA), WiBro+VoIP, and WiBro+DMB regarded as the next generation of broadcasting. Based on the empirical analysis of economic values, we provide the optimal paths of converged communications and broadcasting services related to WiBro. 1,000 Internet users in the Seoul and Gyeonggi areas were surveyed in their homes. The collected survey was calculated as an accurate economic value distribution for relevant services, and the average and mean were taken using a parametric logit model, semi-parametric Spike model, and nonparametric Turnbull and Kernel estimations in order to analyze the contingent economic value of the amount offered to the subjects of the analysis. The contingent value analysis results varied slightly according to the different methodologies; however, all showed the following common features. The economic value of WiBro, Internet-based WCDMA, VoIP, and DMB with WiBro appeared to be similar. Therefore, if WiBro and WCDMA (HSDPA) form a competitive relationship, the types of bundled services offered as portable Internet service and the supply point of such bundled services are expected to emerge in a strategic plan for stimulating service markets and the prior occupation of the market.