• Title/Summary/Keyword: Trend Model

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Trend-adaptive Anomaly Detection with Multi-Scale PCA in IoT Networks (IoT 네트워크에서 다중 스케일 PCA 를 사용한 트렌드 적응형 이상 탐지)

  • Dang, Thien-Binh;Tran, Manh-Hung;Le, Duc-Tai;Choo, Hyunseung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.562-565
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    • 2018
  • A wide range of IoT applications use information collected from networks of sensors for monitoring and controlling purposes. However, the frequent appearance of fault data makes it difficult to extract correct information, thereby sending incorrect commands to actuators that can threaten human privacy and safety. For this reason, it is necessary to have a mechanism to detect fault data collected from sensors. In this paper, we present a trend-adaptive multi-scale principal component analysis (Trend-adaptive MS-PCA) model for data fault detection. The proposed model inherits advantages of Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) in capturing time-frequency information and advantages of PCA in extracting correlation among sensors' data. Experimental results on a real dataset show the high effectiveness of the proposed model in data fault detection.

A Multi-Sensor Fire Detection Method based on Trend Predictive BiLSTM Networks

  • Gyu-Li Kim;Seong-Jun Ro;Kwangjae Lee
    • Journal of Sensor Science and Technology
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.248-254
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    • 2024
  • Artificial intelligence techniques have improved fire-detection methods; however, false alarms still occur. Conventional methods detect fires using current sensors, which can lead to detection errors due to temporary environmental changes or noise. Thus, fire-detection methods must include a trend analysis of past information. We propose a deep-learning-based fire detection method using multi-sensor data and Kendall's tau. The proposed system used a BiLSTM model to predict fires using pre-processed multi-sensor data and extracted trend information. Kendall's tau indicates the trend of a time-series data as a score; therefore, it is easy to obtain a target pattern. The experimental results showed that the proposed system with trend values recorded an accuracy of 99.93% for BiLSTM and GRU models in a 20-tap moving average filter and 40% fire threshold. Thus, the proposed trend approach is more accurate than that of conventional approaches.

A Study of Fashion Model Image According to Fashion Trend since 1960 (60년대 이후 패션 트렌드를 중심으로 본 패션 모델이미지)

  • Sung, Kwang-Sook
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fashion and Beauty
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    • v.2 no.1 s.1
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    • pp.21-33
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    • 2004
  • The main focus of this study is to provide the interrelation about the defining fashion model image by the fashion trend since 1960. This is expressed as follows, First, in the 60s'; 1) Image of innocent dolly style, Jean Shrimpton 2) Image of sexual style, Celia Hammond 3) Image of art style with charicteristic mask, Peggy Moffitt 4) Image of immature boyish style, Twiggy. Second, in the 70s'; 1) Image of natural and intelligent style, Larun Hutton 2) Image of exotic style with black beauty, Imman 3) Image of graceful and sexal style, Veruschka 4) Image of glamour and sexual style, Jerry Hall. Third, in the 80s'; 1) Image of unisexual style with power, Grace Jones 2) Image of graceful and noble style, In`es de la Fressange 3) Image of healthy and sexy style, Christie Brinkley 4) Image of sexy style with good sense, super model. And fourth, in the 90s' and now; 1) Image of glamour sexual style with self-consciousness, Claudia Shiffer 2) Image of graceful style with dignity, Christy Turlington 3) Image of asexual and androginous style, Stella Tennant), 4)Image of Twiggy style with immature and slender, Kate Moss 5) Image of new glamour style, Giseel Bundchen 6) Image of new style with unique beauty, Amber Vaiietta 7)Image of exotic style, Devon Aoki 8) Extraordinary, image of various style. The result of thir study, fashion models image have played a role in transmitting the style of fashion trend in their relevancy. Anyway it can be said that fashion models imply figurative meanings of the fashion trend.

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Effects of CO2 and Climate on water use efficiency and their linkage with the climate change

  • Umair, Muhammad;Kim, Daeun;Choi, Minha
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.149-149
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    • 2019
  • Gross Primary production (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET) are the two critical components of carbon and water cycle respectively, linking the terrestrial surface and ecosystem with the atmosphere. The ratio between GPP to ET is called ecosystem water use efficiency (EWUE) and its quantification at the forest site helps to understand the impact of climate change due to large scale anthropogenic activities such as deforestation and irrigation. This study was conducted at the FLUXNET forest site CN-Qia (2003-2005) using Community land model (CLM 5.0). We simulated carbon and water fluxes including GPP, ecosystem respiration (ER), and ET using climatic variables as forcing dataset for 30 years (1981-2010). Model results were validated with the FLUXNET tower observations. The correlation showed better performance with values of 0.65, 0.77, and 0.63 for GPP, ER, and ET, respectively. The model underestimated the results with minimum bias of -0.04, -1.67, and -0.40 for GPP, ER, and ET, respectively. Effect of climate 'CLIM' and '$CO_2$' were analyzed based on EWUE and its trend was evaluated in the study period. The positive trend of EWUE was observed in the whole period from 1981-2010, and the trend showed further increase when simulated with rising $CO_2$. The time period were divided into two parts, from 1981-2000 and from 2001 to 2010, to identify the warming effect on EWUE. The first period showed the similar increasing trend of EWUE, but the second period showed slightly decreasing trend. This might be associated with the increase in ET in the wet temperate forest site due to increase in climate warming. Water use efficiency defined by transpiration (TR) (TWUE), and inherent-TR based WUE (IT-WUE) were also discussed. This research provides the evidence to climate warming and emphasized the importance of long term planning for management of water resources and evaporative demand in irrigation, deforestation and other anthropogenic activities.

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A study on the trend change of Housing Cultural Center for cultural marketing (문화마케팅을 위한 주택문화관의 트렌드 변화에 관한 연구)

  • Yang, Young-Keun
    • Journal of The Korean Digital Architecture Interior Association
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.11-18
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    • 2009
  • Recently major construction companies are building Housing Cultural Center instead of existing model house or housing gallery for accomplishing new marketing strategy. This Housing Cultural Center are different with existing model house or housing gallery on scale, spacial composition and operating program. And Background of differentiation is caused by change of housing market's environment, consumer's awareness level, service and marketing strategy. Because existing model house or housing gallery can not supply various consumer's needs and change of awareness level. Therefore, recent Housing Cultural Center is focused on cultural marketing for rapidly adjusting to new customer's need, including new customer acquisition and old customer retention. In accordance with this situation, it is very important to analyze out type and trend of Housing Cultural Center as facility for enlargement of cultural service and companies's social role for consumer. Therefore, the purpose of this study is an analysis about the trend of Housing Cultural Center as cultural space and a presentation of concept, function and direction when other construction companies build Housing Cultural Center hereafter.

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A Study on the Demand Forecasting of Healthcare Technology from a Consumer Perspective : Using Social Data and ARIMA Model Approach (소셜데이터 및 ARIMA 분석을 활용한 소비자 관점의 헬스케어 기술수요 예측 연구)

  • Yang, Dong Won;Lee, Zoon Ky
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.49-61
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    • 2020
  • Prior studies on technology predictions attempted to predict the emergence and spread of emerging technologies through the analysis of correlations and changes between data using objective data such as patents and research papers. Most of the previous studies predicted future technologies only from the viewpoint of technology development. Therefore, this study intends to conduct technical forecasting from the perspective of the consumer by using keyword search frequency of search portals such as NAVER before and after the introduction of emerging technologies. In this study, we analyzed healthcare technologies into three types : measurement technology, platform technology, and remote service technology. And for the keyword analysis on the healthcare, we converted the classification of technology perspective into the keyword classification of consumer perspective. (Blood pressure and blood sugar, healthcare diagnosis, appointment and prescription, and remote diagnosis and prescription) Naver Trend is used to analyze keyword trends from a consumer perspective. We also used the ARIMA model as a technology prediction model. Analyzing the search frequency (Naver trend) over 44 months, the final ARIMA models that can predict three types of healthcare technology keyword trends were estimated as "ARIMA (1,2,1) (1,0,0)", "ARIMA (0,1,0) (1,0,0)", "ARIMA (1,1,0) (0,0,0)". In addition, it was confirmed that the values predicted by the time series prediction model and the actual values for 44 months were moving in almost similar patterns in all intervals. Therefore, we can confirm that this time series prediction model for healthcare technology is very suitable.

An Analysis of Spatial Differences in the Efficiency of Regional Industrial Enterprises in China

  • Qingsong Pang;Yanan Sun;Sangwook Kim
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.263-271
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    • 2024
  • This paper analysis of spatial differences in the efficiency of regional industrial enterprises in China from 2011 to 2021. The efficiency analysis uses the DEA-CCR model. The input variables for efficiency analysis are total assets and annual average employees, and the output variables are revenue from principal business and total profits. Using trend surface analysis and gravity center model, to analysis the spatial differences of efficiency in different regions. From the results of the gravity center model, the coordinates of the gravity center of China's regional industrial enterprise efficiency in 2011 are 112.303°E & 34.239°N, and 2021 are 111.753°E & 33.791°N, which indicates that the gravity center of the efficiency of China's regional industrial enterprises in the 2011-2021 period generally moves to the southwest. From the results of the trend surface analysis, the efficiency of industrial enterprises in China's regional industrial enterprises appears to show spatial differences in both the eastwest and the northsouth directions.

Study of The Abnormal Traffic Detection Technique Using Forecasting Model Based Trend Model (추세 모형 기반의 예측 모델을 이용한 비정상 트래픽 탐지 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Jang, Sang-Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.15 no.8
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    • pp.5256-5262
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    • 2014
  • Recently, Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks, such as spreading malicious code, cyber-terrorism, have occurred in government agencies, the press and the financial sector. DDoS attacks are the simplest Internet-based infringement attacks techniques that have fatal consequences. DDoS attacks have caused bandwidth consumption at the network layer. These attacks are difficult to detect defend against because the attack packets are not significantly different from normal traffic. Abnormal traffic is threatening the stability of the network. Therefore, the abnormal traffic by generating indications will need to be detected in advance. This study examined the abnormal traffic detection technique using a forecasting model-based trend model.

A Hybrid Method to Improve Forecasting Accuracy Utilizing Genetic Algorithm: An Application to the Data of Processed Cooked Rice

  • Takeyasu, Hiromasa;Higuchi, Yuki;Takeyasu, Kazuhiro
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.244-253
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    • 2013
  • In industries, shipping is an important issue in improving the forecasting accuracy of sales. This paper introduces a hybrid method and plural methods are compared. Focusing the equation of exponential smoothing method (ESM) that is equivalent to (1, 1) order autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) model equation, a new method of estimating the smoothing constant in ESM had been proposed previously by us which satisfies minimum variance of forecasting error. Generally, the smoothing constant is selected arbitrarily. However, this paper utilizes the above stated theoretical solution. Firstly, we make estimation of ARMA model parameter and then estimate the smoothing constant. Thus, theoretical solution is derived in a simple way and it may be utilized in various fields. Furthermore, combining the trend removing method with this method, we aim to improve forecasting accuracy. This method is executed in the following method. Trend removing by the combination of linear and 2nd order nonlinear function and 3rd order nonlinear function is executed to the original production data of two kinds of bread. Genetic algorithm is utilized to search the optimal weight for the weighting parameters of linear and nonlinear function. For comparison, the monthly trend is removed after that. Theoretical solution of smoothing constant of ESM is calculated for both of the monthly trend removing data and the non-monthly trend removing data. Then forecasting is executed on these data. The new method shows that it is useful for the time series that has various trend characteristics and has rather strong seasonal trend. The effectiveness of this method should be examined in various cases.

A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.