• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.5
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• pp.305-311
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• 2022

The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is projected to provide several chances for Vietnam's banking industry to expand into the international market. This study examines the influence of foreign ownership on credit risk in Vietnamese commercial banks before the context of participation in the CPTPP. Using a sample of 28 commercial banks between 2009 and 2020, we find that foreign ownership has a negative relationship with bank credit risk. The regression methods used include the least-squares method, fixed-effects model, random effects model, and general least squares method. The research model adds interactive variables, which will help to reflect the role of intermediary factors more accurately such as listing on the stock market, capital ratio to the relationship between foreign ownership and bank credit risk. The test results reveal that increasing the foreign ownership ratio has a bigger impact on reducing credit risk for listed banks and banks with low capital than for other commercial banks. The government should flexibly adjust the foreign ownership ratio according to the capital size and role of each bank so that it can make good use of investment capital from abroad when Vietnam joins the CPTPP.

• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.1 no.2
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• pp.31-43
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• 2017

The article is devoted to the theoretical and practical analysis of Chinese global leadership. The concept of leadership is applied as a methodology, which involves identifying the main factors, such as strategic power, the attractiveness of political institutions, the ability to provide acceptable ideas and the presence of allies that contribute to a comprehensive analysis of the country's leadership potential. The authors also describe the relevance of Chinese global leadership and analyze its domestic, economic and international causes. Moreover, the ''Belt and Road'' initiative is defined as the main mechanism for providing the influence of China on the global level which is now being changed its quantitative component, namely the increasing attention to the security aspects of this initiative. In addition to that, it is important to note that China maintains its economic and political positions in Africa, Central Asia and South-East Asia. Africa has a special role in the Chinese ''Belt and Road'' initiative as a recipient of Chinese investments and a site for the deployment of China's naval facilities to protect the trade routes. On the regional level, China will strive to become a leader of the trade and economic processes in the Asia-Pacific region, the South China Sea and the North Korea nuclear program issues. The American factor in modern international relations, namely so-called "Trump factor", which means the U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Paris Agreement, will cause demand for Chinese leadership in the Asia-Pacific region and in the world as well. However, in this case a number of questions arise: is China prepared for this? Is Beijing able to bear greater responsibility? Does China have the potential for this? The article concludes that China will not become global leaders in the next 20-30 years, because of internal (political reforms) and foreign policy reasons (doctrinal formulation of foreign policy initiatives, military-political and economic power, international posture and relations with other states). The authors believe that the implementation of Chinese leadership is possible not on the condition of confrontation between China and the United States, but on the establishing of constructive relations between these countries. The last meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping showed a trend for creating channels for dialogue between Beijing and Washington, which can become the basis for interaction. An important place in the work is given to the analysis of development and forecasting the evolution of Russian-Chinese and U.S.-China relations. As for Russia, Moscow should conduct a policy that will not allow it to become a ''junior partner'' of China.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.147-160
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• 2023

Purpose - This paper aims to investigate the competitiveness and complementarity of the agricultural products trade between Korea and Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) countries. The study evaluates the opportunities and challenges that Korea's agricultural sector faces after joining the CPTPP, and suggests strategies to deepen cooperation and expand Korea's agricultural products trade. Design/methodology - To achieve these objectives, we analyze the trade competition and cooperation relationship between Korea and CPTPP countries in the agricultural products trade. This study uses data from Chapters HS1-24 in UN Comtrade from 2012 to 2022, and applies the indices of revealed comparative advantage, export similarity, and trade complementarity to examine the trade dynamics. Furthermore, we use an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to predict the agricultural products trade complementarity index between Korea and CPTPP countries from 2022 to 2031. Findings - The findings of our analysis reveal that Korea's agricultural products trade competitiveness is weak compared to that of CPTPP countries, and Korea's agricultural products are at a competitive disadvantage. On the whole, the similarity index of agricultural products trade exports between Korea and CPTPP countries is low, the structure of agricultural products export is quite different, and trade competition is relatively moderate. The trade complementarity index between Korea and CPTPP countries is generally high, with strong complementarity and a large space for cooperation and development. The ARIMA model shows that in the next ten years, although the agricultural products trade complementarity index fluctuates, but is generally high, there will still be a complementarity advantage in the future. Originality/value - This study is the first attempt to investigate the competitiveness and complementarity of the agricultural products trade between Korea and CPTPP countries. We also introduce an ARIMA model to forecast and analyze the future agricultural products trade complementarity index. Our study provides new perspectives and solutions for the future development of Korea's agricultural products trade after joining the CPTPP.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.42 no.4
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• pp.185-215
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• 2017

While the future of Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement is uncertain, TPP did succeed in convincing certain developing countries, which had been reluctant to open its government procurement market in the past, to open their markets. In this paper, we compare the government procurement chapter of TPP with WTO Government Procurement Agreement to see what factors may have convinced these countries to open their government procurement markets. The key factors seem to be an initially very high levels of threshold, coupled with an extended transition period (up to 20 years) to lower the threshold to figures comparable to other countries; and reduction of legal and regulatory burdens dealing with some transparency and procedural requirements. Korea should use these strategies in their future FTA negotiations to try to open foreign government procurement markets. If Korea wants to accede to TPP, it should have very few problems since Korea has similar threshold levels as current TPP members, and legal and regulatory requirements are more strict under GPA, of which Korea is a member.