• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제37권6호
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• pp.567-574
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• 2013

Although Korea coastal area has the increasing potential marine accident due to frequent ship's encounter, increased vessel traffic and large vessel, there is no specific model to evaluate the navigating vessel's risk considering the domestic traffic situation. The maritime transport environmental assessment is necessary due to the amended maritime traffic law. However, marine safety diagnosis is now carried out by foreign model. In this paper, therefore, we suggest a domestic traffic model reflecting the characteristics of korea coastal area and navigator's risk as we named PARK(Potential Assessment of Risk) model. We can evaluate the subjective risk by establishing the model and model output into maritime risk exposure system. To evaluate this model's effectiveness, we used ship handling simulation and applied, analyzed collision accident which occurred in korea coastal area. And also, we applied integrated to an ECDIS program for monitoring traffic risk of vessels with real time based AIS data and apply to evaluate traffic risk in busan harbor waterway. As a result, we could evaluate busan harbor waterway risk effectively.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제40권5호
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• pp.257-263
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• 2016

Mombasa is the principle port of Kenya, serving inland countries in Eastern and central Africa. Mombasa port has undergone a massive infrastructure upgrade and dredging works with an expectation that more vessels and large post Panamax ships will be able to enter Mombasa port. Therefore, it is vital to carry out a marine traffic risk assessment in order to quantify the degree of navigation safety needed in the Mombasa approach channel and also to evaluate the navigation risk imposed on transit traffic by local ferry traffic. In this paper, a marine traffic risk assessment is carried out using the IWRAP mk2, Environmental Stress (ES) model, and the PARK model. Risk assessment results show that Likoni area has an unacceptable stress/risk ranking at 20.7% by the ES model and 38.89% by the PARK model. The IWRAP mk2 model shows that the crossing area has the highest risk of crossing collision and the area at the entrance to the inner channel has a high risk of grounding. The conclusions derived from this study will provide the basis for proposing the most effective countermeasure to improve navigation safety in the Mombasa approach channel.

• 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국항해항만학회 2016년도 춘계학술대회
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• pp.81-84
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• 2016

Mombasa is the principle port of Kenya, serving hinter countries in Eastern and central Africa. Mombasa port has undergone a massive infrastructure upgrade and dredging works with an expectation that more vessels and large post Panamax ships will be able to call at Mombasa port. Therefore, it is vital to carry out a marine traffic risk assessment so as to quantify the degree of navigation safety on Mombasa approach channel and also to evaluate navigation risk imposed on transit traffic by local ferry traffic. In this paper marine traffic risk assessment is carried out using IWRAP mk2, Environmental Stress model, and PARK model. Risk assessment results show that Likoni area has unacceptable stress/ risk ranking at 20.7% on ES model and 38.89% by PARK model. IWRAP mk2 model shows that crossing area has the highest risk of crossing collision and the area at the entrance to inner channel has a high risk of grounding. The conclusions derived from this study will provide the basis for proposing the most effective countermeasure so as to improve navigation safety in Mombasa approach channel.

• 한국지능시스템학회논문지
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.220-225
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• 2013

항구 등 선박교통이 밀집된 구역에서 선박의 사고는 빈번하게 발생한다. 해양사고는 한번 발생하면 대형사고로 이어질 확률이 높으므로, 철저한 해상교통관리가 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 실 해역의 통계적인 해상교통정보와 실시간 선박 통항분포를 바탕으로 항로 위험도를 정량적으로 평가하기 위한 시뮬레이터를 개발하고자 한다. 항로 위험도 평가 시뮬레이터는 항로정보 입력부, 통항분포 분석부, 알고리즘 실행부로 구성하였다. 또한 완도해역의 해상교통정보를 시뮬레이터에 적용하여 항로의 정량적인 항로 위험도를 산출하고자 한다.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제42권2호
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• pp.97-106
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• 2018

Despite the development of safety measures and improvements in preventive systems technologies, maritime traffic accidents that involve ships carrying hazardous and noxious substances (HNS) continuously occur owing to increased amount of HNS goods transported and the growing number of HNS fleet. To prevent maritime traffic accidents involving ships carrying HNS, this study proposes an intuitive route risk assessment technique using risk contours that can be visually and quantitatively analyzed. The proposed technique offers continuous information based on quantified values. It determines and structures route risk factors classified as absolute danger, absolute factors, and influential factors within the assessment area. The route risk is assessed in accordance with the proposed algorithmic procedures by means of contour maps overlaid on electronic charts for visualization. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed route risk assessment technique, experimental case studies under various conditions were conducted to compare results obtained by the proposed technique to actual route plans used by five representative companies operating the model ship carrying HNS. This technique is beneficial not only for assessing the route risk of ships carrying HNS, but also for identifying better route options such as recommended routes and enhancing navigation safety. Furthermore, this technique can be used to develop optimized route plans for current maritime conditions in addition to future autonomous navigation application.

• 해양환경안전학회지
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• 제18권5호
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• pp.431-438
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• 2012

해상교통환경의 위험도를 평가하기 위한 기술로는 대표적으로 FSA, PAWSA, IWRAP 등이 있으며, 이러한 기술의 개발을 위해서는 해상교통환경에 적합한 위험요소를 선정하고 이에 대한 평가기준이 마련되어야 한다. 기존 기술에서 위험도는 사고의 출현빈도와 이로 인한 영향의 곱으로 정의되어 이에 따라 사고의 출현빈도 및 영향에 해당되는 위험요소들이 각각 구분되어 선정되고 있었다. 그러나, 본 연구는 각 위험요소에 요소별 출현빈도와 영향을 포함하여 이들의 합으로 위험도를 정의함으로써 기존 기술에서 사고의 영향에 해당되었던 위험요소들을 제외하는 한편, 위험요소 분류체계에 관한 기존 연구의 사례 검토를 통하여 위험도를 구성하는 위험요소를 20가지로 추출한 후 유사한 성격에 따라 5가지 카테고리로 분류하였다. 또한, 선정된 각 위험요소에 대하여 관련 통계자료 등을 이용 실용적으로 용이하게 평가할 수 있는 기준을 제시하여, 향후 국내 해상교통환경에 적합한 위험도 평가모델의 개발을 위한 기초를 마련하였다.

• 해양환경안전학회지
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.298-305
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• 2019

The demand for the revitalization of marine tourism in Busan North Port is increasing due to changes in functions such as an increase in harbor traffic volume and the expansion of marine leisure space in Busan. As a result, Busan City plans to set a phased alleviation target for prohibition of cruise ship operations, and to lift the prohibition of excursion ship operations in North Port following the cancellation of the prohibition of excursion ship operations in South Port in 2017. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the risk of excursion ship operations in Busan North Port by applying the marine traffic assessment index and to examine the possibility of excursion ship operations. For this purpose, port status, marine accidents, and traffic flow of Busan North Port were investigated. In addition, marine traffic assessment indexes, such as traffic congestion, risk based on an ES Model, and IWRAP MkII, a maritime risk assessment tool, were used to assess the risk and possibility of excursion ship operations in Busan North Port. This study can be used as basic data for analyzing the risk factors that may occur when excursion ships are operated in Busan North Port and to define how excursion ships should operate, with related safety measures.

• 해양환경안전학회지
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• 제19권3호
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• pp.257-263
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• 2013

The classification of risk factors and the identification of risk acceptance criteria are core works to assess risk levels with high enough confidential level in the field of marine traffic environment. In the previous study work, the twenty kinds of risk factors and its assessment criteria for the domestic marine traffic environment were proposed. In this paper, with these previous studying results, the relative importance of the risk factors were analyzed by questionnaire survey of marine traffic experts using the analytic hierarchy process. The analysis results showed that the relative importance of the visibility restriction is the highest among the twenty kinds of risk factors, and the relative importance of the traffic condition is the highest among the five kinds of risk categories. As results from analysis, it is expected that the approaching method on the relative importance is to be one of basic techniques for the development of risk assessment models in the domestic marine traffic environment.

• Ocean Systems Engineering
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.267-284
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• 2022

A subsea pipeline designed across active shipping lane prones to failure against external interferences such as anchorage activities, hence risk assessment is essential. It requires quantifying the geometric probability derived from ship traffic distribution based on Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. The actual probability density function from historical vessel traffic data is ideal, as for rapid assessment, conceptual study, when the AIS data is scarce or when the local vessels traffic are not utilised with AIS. Recommended practices suggest the probability distribution is assumed as a single peak Gaussian. This study compares several fitted Gaussian distributions and Monte Carlo simulation based on actual ship traffic data in main ship direction in an active shipping lane across a subsea pipeline. The results shows that a Gaussian distribution with five peaks is required to represent the ship traffic data, providing an error of 0.23%, while a single peak Gaussian distribution and the Monte Carlo simulation with one hundred million realisation provide an error of 1.32% and 0.79% respectively. Thus, it can be concluded that the multi-peak Gaussian distribution can represent the actual ship traffic distribution in the main direction, but it is less representative for ship traffic distribution in other direction. The geometric probability is utilised in a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for subsea pipeline against vessel anchor dropping and dragging and vessel sinking.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제44권3호
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• pp.158-165
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• 2020

해상등부표는 선박 통항의 안전을 위해 필요한 시설로 파손 및 유실되는 경우 예상치 못한 예산 지출뿐 아니라 등부표 운용이 불가능해짐에 따라 선박 통항 안전에도 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 해역의 교통흐름을 반영할 수 있는 해상교통평가지표를 적용하여 등부표 접촉사고의 위험성을 평가하고자 한다. 이를 위하여 평가대상 해역을 등부표 설치기수가 많고 등부표 접촉사고가 많이 발생하는 부산항 제5항로로 설정하고, 대상해역의 등부표 접촉사고 현황을 조사했다. 그리고 해상교통평가지표로 사용될 수 있는 해상위험평가도구인 IALA Waterway Risk Assessment Programme(IWRAP MkII)와 Potential Assessment of Risk Model(PARK Model)를 활용하여 등부표 접촉사고 발생의 위험성을 평가했다. 그 결과, 마산항 입출항 선박과 부산항신항 입출항 선박으로 교통흐름이 복잡한 경계해역 인근에 위치한 등부표와 항로를 따르지 않는 선박들이 항로를 가로지르는 운항패턴을 보이는 가덕수도 입구 인근에 위치한 등부표, 부산항신항 내항항로의 방파제 인근에 위치한 등부표가 접촉사고 위험성이 큰 것으로 평가되었다. 본 연구는 등부표 사고 위험성을 평가할 수 있는 통합 모델을 만드는 기초 자료로 활용될 수 있으며, 추후에 다양한 해역의 접촉사고 위험성을 평가하고, 미래교통량을 추정·적용하여 등부표 신설 시 안전한 등부표 설치 위치를 선정할 수 있을 것이다.