• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제14권5호
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• pp.101-111
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• 2012

PURPOSES: Because expressway ramps are very complex segments where diverse roadway design elements dynamically change within relatively short length, drivers on ramps are required to drive their cars carefully for safety. Especially, ramps on expressways are designed to guarantee driving at high speed so that the risk and severity of traffic accidents on expressway ramps may be higher and more deadly than other facilities on expressways. Safe deceleration maneuvers are required on off-ramps, whereas safe acceleration maneuvers are necessary on onramps. This difference in required maneuvers may contribute to dissimilar patterns and severity of traffic accidents by ramp types. Therefore, this study was aimed at developing prediction models of the severity of traffic accidents on expressway on- and off-ramps separately in order to consider dissimilar patterns and severity of traffic accidents according to types of ramps. METHODS: Four-year-long traffic accident data between 2007 and 2010 were utilized to distinguish contributing design elements in conjunction with AADT and ramp length. The prediction models were built using the negative binomial regression model consisting of the severity of traffic accident as a dependent variable and contributing design elements as in independent variables. RESULTS: The developed regression models were evaluated using the traffic accident data of the ramps which was not used in building the models by comparing actual and estimated severity of traffic accidents. Conclusively, the average prediction error rates of on-ramps and offramps were 30.5% and 30.8% respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The prediction models for the severity of traffic accidents on expressway on- and off-ramps will be useful in enhancing the safety on expressway ramps as well as developing design guidelines for expressway ramps.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• 제18권6호
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• pp.719-728
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• 2022

The prediction of short-term traffic flow is the theoretical basis of intelligent transportation as well as the key technology in traffic flow induction systems. The research on short-term traffic flow prediction has showed the considerable social value. At present, the support vector regression (SVR) intelligent prediction model that is suitable for small samples has been applied in this domain. Aiming at parameter selection difficulty and prediction accuracy improvement, the artificial bee colony (ABC) is adopted in optimizing SVR parameters, which is referred to as the ABC-SVR algorithm in the paper. The simulation experiments are carried out by comparing the ABC-SVR algorithm with SVR algorithm, and the feasibility of the proposed ABC-SVR algorithm is verified by result analysis. Continuously, the simulation experiments are carried out by comparing the ABC-SVR algorithm with particle swarm optimization SVR (PSO-SVR) algorithm and genetic optimization SVR (GA-SVR) algorithm, and a better optimization effect has been attained by simulation experiments and verified by statistical test. Simultaneously, the simulation experiments are carried out by comparing the ABC-SVR algorithm and wavelet neural network time series (WNN-TS) algorithm, and the prediction accuracy of the proposed ABC-SVR algorithm is improved and satisfactory prediction effects have been obtained.

• 한국소음진동공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국소음진동공학회 2007년도 추계학술대회논문집
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• pp.101-104
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• 2007

All of noise prediction model have it's own features in the case of modeling conditions, so it is very important to know the features of each model case by case for a proper modeling, especially using at the Environmental Impact Assessment. For prediction of highway traffic noise and abating the noise by barriers, two kinds of prediction model, HW-NOISE, KHTN(Korea Highway Traffic Noise) has been mainly used in Korea. In this study, the features of these models were described at the same conditions. The properties of sound power from a road, diffraction characteristics from a barrier, sound pressure level decaying in each model were investigated. Using the results, it will be anticipated that the proper using of prediction models in the works of highway noise abating.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제14권9호
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• pp.3598-3614
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• 2020

With the increase of motor vehicles and tourism demand, some traffic problems gradually appear, such as traffic congestion, safety accidents and insufficient allocation of traffic resources. Facing these challenges, a model of Spatio-Temporal Dilated Convolutional Network (STDGCN) is proposed for assistance of extracting highly nonlinear and complex characteristics to accurately predict the future traffic flow. In particular, we model the traffic as undirected graphs, on which graph convolutions are built to extract spatial feature informations. Furthermore, a dilated convolution is deployed into graph convolution for capturing multi-scale contextual messages. The proposed STDGCN integrates the dilated convolution into the graph convolution, which realizes the extraction of the spatial and temporal characteristics of traffic flow data, as well as features of road occupancy. To observe the performance of the proposed model, we compare with it with four rivals. We also employ four indicators for evaluation. The experimental results show STDGCN's effectiveness. The prediction accuracy is improved by 17% in comparison with the traditional prediction methods on various real-world traffic datasets.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.841-854
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• 2020

The paper explains the method to process, analyze and predict traffic patterns in Los Angeles county using Big Data and Machine Learning. The dataset is used from a popular navigating platform in the USA, which tracks information on the road using connected users' devices and also collects reports shared by the users through the app. The dataset mainly consists of information about traffic jams and traffic incidents reported by users, such as road closure, hazards, accidents. The major contribution of this paper is to give a clear view of how the large-scale road traffic data can be stored and processed using the Big Data system - Hadoop and its ecosystem (Hive). In addition, analysis is explained with the help of visuals using Business Intelligence and prediction with classification machine learning model on the sampled traffic data is presented using Azure ML. The process of modeling, as well as results, are interpreted using metrics: accuracy, precision and recall.

• 한국정보통신학회논문지
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.633-636
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• 2022

The reduction of energy consumption at the base station (BS) has become more important recently. In this paper, we consider the adaptive muting of the antennas based on the predicted future traffic load to reduce the energy consumption where the number of active antennas is adaptively adjusted according to the predicted future traffic load. Given that traffic load is sequential data, three different RNN structures, namely long-short term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), and bidirectional LSTM (Bi-LSTM) are considered for the future traffic load prediction. Through the performance evaluation based on the actual traffic load collected from the Afghanistan telecom company, we confirm that the traffic load can be estimated accurately and the overall power consumption can also be reduced significantly using the antenna musing.

• 한국통신학회논문지
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• 제30권4C호
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• pp.296-304
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• 2005

본 논문에서는 네트워크의 생존성을 보장하고 신뢰성 높은 인터넷 서비스를 제공하기 위해 인터넷의 액세스점에 위치하는 예측기반 이상 트래픽 제어기(ATCoP, Abnormal Traffic Controller based on Prediction)를 제안한다. ATCoP는 네트워크로 유입되는 트래픽 중 이상 트래픽을 제어하는 방법으로서, 알려지지 않은 공격에 의해 트래픽이 과다하게 발생하는 경우에, 정상 트래픽에 우선권을 주기 위해 서비스 성공률을 측정하고 그 결과를 기준으로 정상 트래픽용 예약 채널의 수를 결정하여 정상 트래픽의 서비스 수준을 보장함으로써 서비스 생존성을 높히는 방법이다. 만일 예약 채널의 수가 증가하면, 이상트래픽에 할당되는 채널의 수가 감소하게 되어 이상트래픽의 서비스 생존율은 감소하게 된다. 분석결과, 제안 방식은 입력트래픽의 특정 범위에서는 정상트래픽의 블록킹율을 일정 수준으로 유지시켜주는 효과가 있음을 알 수 있었다.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제26권6호
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• pp.130-136
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• 2011

Since out of a lot of traffic problems traffic accidents cause damage to life and properties of people, it stands out as one of traffic problems which needs improvement, and the loss due to traffic accident negatively affects not only the parties to the accident but also the national economy. Thus, continual concern of the government toward traffic safety is getting bigger and lately each local government is preparing a basic plan for traffic safety and vitalizing traffic safety policies. As expanding the responsibility and role of local governments for traffic safety, traffic safety measures which are based on the characteristics of each local government should be studied. Most of analytical methods in the existing traffic accidents prediction models with macroscopic vision focus on socioeconomic variables such as local population and the number of registered vehicles, and present a great deal of prediction error when they are applied in practice. In this context, this study proposed a traffic accident prediction model in respect of macroscopic level for autonomous districts (administrative districts) of Seoul City. The model development was not based on the entire city but on the type of local land usage (development density) whose relationship with traffic accident frequency was analyzed.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제43권4호
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• pp.76-83
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• 2020

Postal logistics organizations are characterized as having high labor intensity and short response times. These characteristics, along with rapid change in mail volume, make load scheduling a fundamental concern. Load analysis of major postal infrastructures such as post offices, sorting centers, exchange centers, and delivery stations is required for optimal postal logistics operation. In particular, the performance of mail traffic forecasting is essential for optimizing the resource operation by accurate load analysis. This paper addresses a traffic forecast problem of postal parcel that arises at delivery stations of Korea Post. The main purpose of this paper is to describe a method for predicting short-term traffic of postal parcel based on self-similarity analysis and to introduce an application of the traffic prediction model to postal logistics system. The proposed scheme develops multiple regression models by the clusters resulted from feature engineering and individual models for delivery stations to reinforce prediction accuracy. The experiment with data supplied by main postal delivery stations shows the advantage in terms of prediction performance. Comparing with other technique, experimental results show that the proposed method improves the accuracy up to 45.8%.

• 한국소음진동공학회논문집
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• 제20권6호
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• pp.515-520
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• 2010

The noise map has been applied to predicting the effect of noise and establishing the noise abatement measure for several years overseas. However the introduction of the noise map in Korea is at the initial stage. Thus, we surveyed the several prediction models for road traffic noise used in EU, and the method of applying the noise map in noise impact assessment. In order to improve the noise impact assessment we have to apply the noise map, and propose the guideline of predicting the road traffic noise. We intend to obtain coherency and accuracy of prediction results. As a result of this study, we know that the prediction guideline is an essential prerequisite in order to predict the unified and accurate road traffic noise.