• 무역학회지
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• 제42권2호
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• pp.277-296
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• 2017

전 세계 수출입 물동량 중 95% 이상이 해상 수송되고 있다. 이처럼 세계 무역에서 해상 수송이 차지하는 비중이 매우 높다는 점에 주목하여, 본 연구는 해상 물동량과 세계 경제(세계 GDP) 간의 회귀분석을 수행함으로써 상관관계를 추정하였다. 즉, 패널 데이터 분석과 확률효과 모형 분석을 통해 품목별 해상 물동량이 세계 경제 성장에 어떤 영향을 미치는지 실증 분석하였다. 분석 과정에서 해상 물동량을 10개 품목별로 분류하고, 해당 품목의 무역량 변화에 따라 세계 GDP가 얼마만큼 영향을 받는지 추정하였다. 이와 더불어 그랜저 인과성 검정을 수행하여 해상 물동량과 세계 GDP 변수 간의 선후 관계를 검증하고, LR(Likelihood ratio) 검정을 실시하여 확률효과 모형을 통해 회귀분석 하였다. 본 연구의 분석 결과는 정부의 무역 관련 정책을 수립하는 데 많은 도움을 줄 것으로 기대된다.

• 무역학회지
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• 제44권2호
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• pp.51-62
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• 2019

This study predicts the future world seaborne trade volume with econometrics methods using 23-year time series data provided by Clarksons. For this purpose, this study uses simple regression analysis, exponential smoothing method and seemingly unrelated regression model (SUR Model). This study is meaningful in that it predicts worldwide total seaborne trade volume and seaborne traffic in four major items (container, bulk, crude oil, and LNG) from 2019 to 2023 as there are few prior studies that predict future seaborne traffic using recent data. It is expected that more useful references can be provided to trade related workers if the analysis period was increased and additional variables could be included in future studies.

• 무역상무연구
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• 제72권
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• pp.139-160
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• 2016

Using the gravity model, this paper analyzes empirically how the world trade in goods is affected by regional trade agreements(RTAs) which have been spreading rapidly since the mid-1990s. This paper attempt to do the panel data analysis about 174 countries during the period of 1994-2008. These panel data include 157 RTAs. It is meaningful that this paper uses comprehensive data to analyze the net effect of regional trade agreements on the global trade volume. This provides a clue as to the answer to the stumbling block debate raised early in the regional trade agreement. Also, confirming how the participation of the WTO affected the trade volume among the member countries, the WTO-related dummy variables are additionally introduced to this gravity model. And as far as we know, the state system-related variables is first considered in this model. This variable reflects the social and cultural environments of countries as the proxy variable representing the sociocultural homogeneity. In all regressions, joining to the WTO and consistency of the state system have a positive effect on increasing the trade volumes between countries. According to the analysis of RTA trade effects, RTAs, on average, increase the volume of trade within the RTA region by 27%~37%, and decrease the volume of trade between the regional and the non-regional nation by 1.2%~3.4%.Therefore, the net effect of regional trade agreements on the promotion of global welfare is positive. For robustness check, we also introduce the interaction term of the dummy variable which reflects the RTA tightening and the continuous variable which reflects the distance effect. As a result, the RTAs alleviate the trade-decreasing effect which is caused by the distance between the countries.

• 무역학회지
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• 제44권2호
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• pp.127-141
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• 2019

In this study, the relationship between Baltic Dry Index(BDI) and maritime trade volume in the dry cargo market was verified using the vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Data was analyzed from 1992 to 2018 for iron ore, steam coal, coking coal, grain, and minor bulks of maritime trade volume and BDI. Granger causality analysis showed that the BDI affects the trade volume of coking coal and minor bulks but the trade volume of iron ore, steam coal and grain do not correlate with the BDI freight index. Impulse response analysis showed that the shock of BDI had the greatest impact on coking coal at the two years lag and the impact was negligible at the ten years lag. In addition, the shock of BDI on minor cargoes was strongest at the three years lag, and were negligible at the ten years lag. This study examined the relationship between maritime trade volume and BDI in the dry bulk shipping market in which uncertainty is high. As a result of this study, there is an economic aspect of sustainability that has helped the risk management of shipping companies. In addition, it is significant from an academic point of view that the long-term relationship between the two time series was analyzed through the causality test between variables. However, it is necessary to develop a forecasting model that will help decision makers in maritime markets using more sophisticated methods such as the Bayesian VAR model.

• 무역학회지
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• 제41권5호
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• pp.373-389
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• 2016

본 연구는 총 무역액 중 95% 이상이 해상 수송되는 현실을 바탕으로, 해상 수송의 근간이 되는 항만의 자본스톡과 무역 규모 간의 회귀분석을 수행하는 논문이다. 패널 데이터 분석 및 고정 효과 모형 분석을 통해 항만 SOC가 무역 규모에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지를 실증분석 하였다. 항만 SOC를 6개 부문별로 분류하고, 장래 부문별 투자가 이루어졌을 때 무역 규모는 각각 얼마만큼의 영향을 받는 지를 추정하였다. 이와 더불어 LR(Likelihood ratio) 검정을 실시하여 고정효과 모형(Fixed Effects Model)을 통해 회귀분석 하였다.

• 무역학회지
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• 제47권6호
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• pp.291-305
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• 2022

In this study, the volume of Pohang Port was predicted. All cargo of Pohang port, iron ore, steel, and bituminous coals were selected as prediction targets. SARIMA, Prophet, and Neural Prophet were used as analysis methods. The predictive power of each model was verified, and a predictive model with high performance was used to predict the volume of goods in Pohang port. As a result of the analysis, it was found that Neural Prophet showed the highest performance in all predictive power. As a result of predicting the future volume of goods until August 2027 using Neural Prophet, it was found that the volume of all items in Pohang port was decreasing. In particular, it was analyzed that the decline in steel cargo was steep. In order to increase the volume of cargo at Pohang port, it is necessary to diversify the cargo handled at Pohang port and check the policy of increasing the volume of cargo.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제27권1호
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• pp.101-118
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• 2023

Purpose - Korea became a trillion-dollar trading country in 2011. With the exponential increase in Korea's trade volume over the past decades, trade-related administrative burdens per capita for Korea Customs became enormous, for which the government established the Single Window, a trade-facilitating system, in 2004 to enhance the efficiency of customs-clearing procedures for traders. This paper focuses on finding whether the Korean Single Window system affects the country's trade facilitation positively through an empirical methodology. Design/methodology - To find empirical evidence that Single Window affects trade facilitation for the customs-clearing procedure, this study assumes that a time-efficient environment enables the handling of the increase in trade volume, under which four independent variables related to import customs-clearing procedures and two dependent variables to import were adopted for empirical analysis. The import customs procedures are classified into four steps from port entry to declaration acceptance. To understand the relationship between variables, scattered plots and correlation coefficients were calculated. Eight hypotheses were set and underwent simple linear regression. The data for analysis were collected by Korea Customs, and were about the lead time of import, the volume of imports in million USD, and the number of import declarations reported to customs offices on a monthly basis from 2005 to 2013. Findings - Six of the eight hypotheses showed the statistically significant result that lead time in the import customs-clearing procedure positively affects the number of import declaration reports and import volume. Specifically, Hypothesis 1, Hypothesis 2, and Hypothesis 3 strongly support the assumption lead time in import customs declaration has an inverse relationship with the number of import declarations, which means that the shorter the import lead time, the more import declaration increases. Research Limitations/Implications - With limited data accessibility to the government's custom-sclearing procedures, only the import lead time for customs clearance were adopted as independent variables. This paper, however, successfully found that the Single Window system contributed to trade facilitation. Originality/value - This study found that the time-saving Single Window system of Korea Customs enables itself to manage an exponentially-increasing trade volume by creating a trade-facilitating environment for customs personnel and traders, which may be a unique implication found through quantitative methodology.

• 한국항만경제학회지
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• 제32권3호
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• pp.83-94
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• 2016

본 연구에서는 한국과 총 5개 단일국가(칠레, 싱가포르, 인도, 페루, 미국) 간 FTA 발효가 부산항 벌크물동량에 미치는 영향에 대한 실증분석을 시도하였다. 분석을 위해 대한민국과 FTA가 발효된 5개 국가(효과집단)와 2015년 기준 부산항 벌크물동량 교역 상위 80%의 비중을 차지하는 10개 국가(통제집단)의 횡단면 및 시계열로 구성된 패널자료를 사용하였다. 분석 결과 FTA 발효는 부산항 벌크물동량의 증대에 기여한 것으로 나타났다. FTA 이외의 GDP, 인구 변수는 부산항 벌크물동량과 양(+)의 효과를 보이는 것으로 나타났으며, 거리 변수는 물동량과 음(-)의 효과를 보이는 것으로 분석되었다. 국가별 패널자료는 하우스만 검정 및 LR검정을 통해 확률효과모형이 적합한 것으로 나타났다.

• 무역학회지
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• 제47권4호
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• pp.1-14
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• 2022

This study examines the impact of trade facilitation on China's trade for the period 2010-2017 using a gravity model with a measurement of APEC trade facilitation through principal component analysis. The empirical results confirmed that trade facilitation was a key factor to have a positive effect on Chinese exports and that the higher the level of trade facilitation in APEC countries, the more positive the increase in exports and quantities with China. Further, the size of the economy, the total population, and the border between the trading partner had a positive effect on Chinese trade volume. To promote economic growth through increase in trade volume, countries should actively improve trade facilitation and participate in global trade facilitation reform through continuous cooperation with trading partners.

• 무역학회지
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• 제46권6호
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• pp.211-224
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• 2021

Based on the perspective of international trade and cross-border e-commerce development, this paper explores the impact of cross-border e-commerce on international trade. This paper first describes the current situation of China's cross-border e-commerce and proposes a theoretical model of the influence of China's cross-border e-commerce on its international trade based on the research and summary of a large number of relevant documents. This paper establishes an extended gravity model based on the proposed theoretical model. Relevant data of 13 trading partner countries were used as sample data, and OLS regression analysis and heterogeneity analysis were conducted on gravity model by using Eviews 11.0. Then, in order to study the influence of each variable on import and export trade volume, import and export trade volume were respectively taken as explained variables and further studied by OLS regression analysis. To test the robustness of the model, the empirical analysis results show that cross-border e-commerce does promote the volume of China's international trade.