• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.47-60
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• 2023

Purpose - This paper assesses the trade potential and efficiency of Korea and China in the aquatic products trade. Trade efficiency and potential are the main factors that affect the growth of a country's trade. In this study, a time-varying stochastic frontier trade gravity model was constructed to analyze the trade potential and efficiency between Korea and China. By integrating the results of trade theory and empirical analysis, measures and suggestions were proposed to encourage the release of trade potential of fish exports between Korea and China. Design/methodology - In this paper, GDP per capita instead of economic size was chosen as an explanatory variable, and population size and relative distance were selected as explanatory variables to measure trade potential. For trade non-efficiency terms, regional organizations, political factors, and economic factors were mainly considered, and variables such as free trade agreements, political stability, regulatory quality, government efficiency, currency freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom, and trade freedom were selected. Panel data for South Korea and 14 aquatic products trading partners (including China) from 2002 to 2020 were used in the empirical analysis. Findings - In the past 19 years, South Korea's export trade potential of aquatic products to China has never been lower than 70%. It was above 90% from 2006 to 2018, and has been at a high level for a long time. This shows that China's aquatic product market has large potential for development. Originality/value - This study examines the effectiveness and potential of South Korea's exports of aquatic items to China in a methodical and comprehensive empirical manner. The evaluation of the export trade potential of South Korea's aquatic goods to China is more precise when the effects of regional organization, political, and economic variables are taken into account in the trade non-efficiency term of the stochastic frontier gravity model. At the same time, we propose to increase the scale of South Korea's aquatic products trade from the perspective of China's demand. This issue of trade studies is underexplored both empirically and in theory, although the issue has long been important to Korean and world trade.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제5권4호
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• pp.95-100
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• 2018

The study investigates the factors that affect Kyrgyzstan's bilateral trade flows with its main trading partners and attempts to predict trade potential for Kyrgyzstan. Using panel data, the gravity model is applied to estimate Kyrgyzstan's trade from 2000 to 2016 for its 35 main trading partners. The coefficients derived from the gravity-model estimation are then used to predict trade potential for Kyrgyzstan. Results proved to be successful and explained 63% of the fluctuations in Kyrgyzstan's trade. According to the results, Kyrgyzstan's and its partners' GDP have a positive effect on trade, while distance and partners' population prove to have a negative effect. Predicted trade potential reveals that neighboring countries (China, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan) and Russia still have a significant trade potential. Kyrgyzstan, being a less developed economy, even by Central Asia standards, can only achieve its goals of reducing poverty and becoming more developed by increasing its overall trade with the rest of the world. Therefore, it is essential to study the main determinants of Kyrgyzstan's bilateral trade. In this way, we can help policy makers formulate policies to expand Kyrgyzstan's trade. This study is the first attempt to apply to the gravity model to Kyrgyzstan in an attempt to predict trade potential.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.61-76
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• 2023

Purpose - The digital service trade has become an important driver of the global service trade. The main purpose of this study is to explore the influencing factors of digital service exports from China and Korea to RCEP sample countries respectively, and to comprehensively study the export potential of China and Korea to RCEP countries, so as to provide theoretical guidance and a decision-making reference to promote digital service trade exports and digital economy development in China and Korea. Design/methodology - First, the stochastic frontier gravity model was improved by introducing nonefficiency factors affecting digital services trade, extending the gravity model of traditional services trade exports to digital services trade exports. Secondly, the panel data of China and Korea for the eight sample countries of RCEP from 2011 to 2021 were adopted for the empirical analysis of digital service export potential by a stochastic frontier model. Findings - China's economic growth plays a role in increasing China's digital service trade exports, while Korea's economic growth does not play a significant role in increasing Korea's digital service trade exports. However, the economic growth of trading partner countries can play a significant role in boosting the digital service trade in both China and Korea, and comparison shows that Korea has higher resilience in the digital services trade than China. In addition, the market size of target countries plays a positive role in promoting the digital service trade exports of both China and Korea, and the increase in the value-added share of services in target countries will lead to a decrease in the digital service trade exports of both China and Korea. Originality/value - This study is innovative in terms of research perspective and method. Academic research on the export potential of international trade has been extensive, but most studies are based on the perspective of the goods trade, fewer studies are based on the perspective of the service trade, and there are almost no studies based on the perspective of digital service trade. There is a gap based on the comparative analysis of the export potential of the digital service trade between China and Korea. This study extends the gravitational model of traditional service trade exports to digital service trade exports to comparatively analyze the export potential of China and Korea to RCEP countries. This study addresses this limitation by analyzing a comparative analysis of the digital service trade export potential of China and Korea.

• 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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• 제22권7호
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• pp.216-226
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• 2022

한중 FTA 협정 체결에 따라 새로운 상황에서 한중 양국의 전자제품 무역의 잠재력을 연구하는 것은 양국 전자제품 무역 발전을 추진하는 데 중대한 현실적 의의가 있다. 이를 토대로 본 연구에서는 2005년~2019년 한·중 전자제품 무역 관련 데이터를 선정해 확장된 무역 중력 모형을 통해 양국의 전자제품 무역 잠재력 요인을 분석한 뒤 양국의 전자제품 무역 잠재력 수치를 추산하고 비교하였다. 연구 결과 (1) 경제 규모, 인구 규모, APEC 회원국 여부가 한중 양국의 무역액 증가 역할을 하고 있음을 발견했다. 지리적 거리는 양국의 무역액을 억제하는 역할을 한다. 무역 자유도는 중국 전자제품의 무역액을 촉진하는데 눈에 띄는 역할을 하고 있고, 한국의 전자제품 무역에는 큰 영향이 없다. (2) 2015년 이후 중국의 대(對)한국 전자제품 수출은 잠재력이 크다. 한국의 대(對)중 전자제품 무역에 대한 잠재력도 어느 정도 있기 때문에 적극적인 정책을 통해 발굴이 필요하다.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제23권5호
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• pp.66-86
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• 2019

Purpose - This paper describes the use of trade preferences under the EU-Korea free trade agreement (FTA) and empirically examines potential reasons for the less than full use, using data on daily EU imports from Korea at the product level. Design/methodology - We employ a probit model to analyse the relationship between the use of trade preferences on the one hand and variables such as potential duty savings, rules of origin and the characteristics of the good traded (intermediate input or final product) on the other. Findings - The paper finds that EU imports from Korea make good use of trade preferences with an overall preference utilisation rate of close to 90% in 2016, which is up from about 80% in 2012. It further shows that potential duty savings influence preference utilisation positively and that more than one quarter of the observations in our sample made use of preferences under EU-Korea FTA in 2012, despite duty savings standing at €10 or less. Originality/value - The finding that a non-negligible share of observations use preferences even when the duty savings are low has not yet figured in the literature. We further show how preference utilisation rates differ by importing EU Member State and by section of the Harmonised System and estimate the marginal impact of an increase in potential duty savings on the preference utilisation rate by broad product group, which is novel.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권9호
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• pp.209-217
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• 2020

The purpose of this study is to investigate the development and determinants of China-ASEAN trade relations over the period of 2000-2018. Employing both the qualitative and quantitative approaches, the results show that the trade relations between China and the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) have remarkably developed and rapidly grown over times, with a significantly important concentration on the segments of high technological and medium technological products. We also find that China's economic scale is crucially impacting on the China-ASEAN trade relations under both the aggregate and sub-sector level. It is interesting to notice that there is no evidence to support accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and officially forming of ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) to enhance trade relation between both sides. The findings also quantitatively indicate that there is much significant potential for the expansion of mutual trade between China and some members of ASEAN such as Brunei, Laos and Malaysia, while less potential is predicted for other members of ASEAN. It is strongly suggested that China and ASEAN should find a new proactive approach and make more efforts in improving the mutual political trusts to enhance trading activities in the coming years.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.20-32
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• 2022

Purpose - This paper intends to make theoretical analysis and empirical test on the factors influencing China's export to South Korea, and draw conclusions about China's export efficiency and trade potential. Based on the conclusions, the reasons for China's trade deficit with South Korea are found, and a solution is put forward for solving the problem of China's trade deficit with South Korea. Design/methodology - Based on the data of 2004-2017 years in China, this paper uses the stochastic frontier gravity model to analyze the influencing factors of China's export to South Korea, as well as the export efficiency of each province and the export potential that can be explored. Findings - First, in terms of the factors affecting China's export trade to South Korea, the GDP of the provinces and cities in China, the FDI of South Korea to the provinces and cities in China, the GDP of South Korea, the population and education level of provinces and cities in China can significantly promote the export scale of Chinese provinces and cities to South Korea. The distance between Chinese provincial capitals and the South Korean capital significantly hinders Chinese exports to South Korea; Second, in terms of export trade efficiency, the trade exchange rate of the economically developed cities along the eastern coast of China and several provinces that are close to South Korea is higher than that of the cities in the central and western regions; Third, economic globalization makes trade more convenient, the average export trade efficiency of China's exports to South Korea showed an upward trend. However, under the influence of the 2008 global financial crisis, the export trade efficiency declined from 2008 to 2009, indicating that the impact of the financial crisis on the trade efficiency cannot be ignored. Originality/value - This paper finds out the influencing factors of China's export to South Korea, analyzes the export efficiency of different provinces and cities, excavates the export potential, and puts forward some suggestions for the balanced development of China and South Korea trade in the next step.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.279-309
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• 2016

The proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a free trade agreement among 12 Pacific Rim countries whose joint gross domestic products (GDPs) account for 36 percent of world GDP and whose mutual trade accounts for approximately 24 percent of world trade. As for most proposed free trade agreements (FTAs), trade economists have provided ex ante computable general equilibrium (CGE) estimates to predict the trade, employment, and real per capita income effects of this agreement, such as ITC (2016). This paper-intended to complement these studies-examines the potential impacts of TPP beyond such traditional CGE estimates, taking a broader economic, governance, and historical perspective. First, we contrast these traditional CGE trade and welfare estimates that treat all firms within an industry as homogeneous with more recent CGE analyses that allow firms' productivities to be heterogeneous. We show that the latter models' trade predictions are much more consistent with ex post empirical evidence of average trade effects of FTAs. Second, empirical evidence now strongly confirms the existence of FTA "contagion." We review this evidence and show that predictive models of the evolution of FTAs indicate that the TPP should be formed. With China now having formed 12 FTAs and negotiating five new ones (including a sixteen member Asia-Pacific FTA), the United States would likely face considerable trade diversion without the TPP. Third, we examine empirical evidence on the likely further economic growth implications of FTAs by reducing firms' uncertainty over trade relations and trade policies. Fourth, we examine empirical evidence on the additional impact of FTAs on consolidating democratic institutions in countries. The TPP would likely help consolidate some of the less mature democracies. Fifth, we examine empirical evidence on the reductions of conflicts (and enhanced peace) between countries owing to the formations of FTAs. We conclude the paper noting that the potential net benefits to member countries of the proposed TPP extend well beyond the real income gains to households based upon traditional CGE models.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제14권11호
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• pp.135-142
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• 2016

최근 중동의 주요 국가들의 경제 성장과 맞물려 우리나라와의 다양한 분야에서의 경제협력 및 교류의 가능성에도 불구하고 그동안 이 지역과 경제협력과 관련된 연구와 자료가 부족했으며 특히, 이 지역과의 교역구조 및 동향과 관련된 논문은 거의 찾아 볼 수 없었다. 이에 본 연구는 우리나라와 주요 GCC(Gulf Cooperation Council) 국가(사우디아라비아, 아랍에미레이트, 카타르) 간에 최근 5년 동안 무역결합도 지수 분석과, 무역보완도, 국별편향도 지수 분석을 통해 향후 GCC 국가로의 한국의 수출 및 교류의 확대의 가능성을 살펴보고, 더 나아가 FTA 체결에 대한 시사점을 검토해 보는 것을 목적으로 하였다. 분석결과 중동의 주요 3개 국가 모두 산업구조상 한국과 상호보완 관계가 이루어져 있어 국가 간 자본이동을 점증적으로 증가시키거나 무역장벽을 낮추도록 노력한다면 향후 무역보완도와 국별편향도를 더욱 증가 시킬 수 있을 것으로 나타났다. 특히 한국과 사우디 간의 무역 및 교역 구조는 3국 중에서 가장 상호 보완관계가 높아 미래 FTA의 체결을 통해 우리나라의 수출증대와 더불어 양국 간 교역을 활성화 할 수 있는 새로운 기회를 창출할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.67-90
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• 2016

This paper provides an assessment of the potential economic impacts of the Vietnam-Korea free trade agreement on Vietnam, by using general equilibrium modeling. The results show that Vietnam-Korea FTA will increase aggregate welfare for both countries in the long run. The most important gains accrue from better allocation of resources consequent to trade liberalization. All the sectoral differences and changes are consistent with the trade profiles of the two countries, and the long-run results are more pronounced than those of the short-run. In comparison with other ASEAN countries, the CGE analysis suggests that Vietnam's agriculture exports to Korea would especially rise in the long run. However, there will be strong competition in this sector among ASEAN members. Thus, an earlier conclusion of a comprehensive FTA with Korea is expected to be a good strategy for Vietnam, so as to avoid the direct competition with ASEAN members in the future.