• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제5권4호
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• pp.95-100
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• 2018

The study investigates the factors that affect Kyrgyzstan's bilateral trade flows with its main trading partners and attempts to predict trade potential for Kyrgyzstan. Using panel data, the gravity model is applied to estimate Kyrgyzstan's trade from 2000 to 2016 for its 35 main trading partners. The coefficients derived from the gravity-model estimation are then used to predict trade potential for Kyrgyzstan. Results proved to be successful and explained 63% of the fluctuations in Kyrgyzstan's trade. According to the results, Kyrgyzstan's and its partners' GDP have a positive effect on trade, while distance and partners' population prove to have a negative effect. Predicted trade potential reveals that neighboring countries (China, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan) and Russia still have a significant trade potential. Kyrgyzstan, being a less developed economy, even by Central Asia standards, can only achieve its goals of reducing poverty and becoming more developed by increasing its overall trade with the rest of the world. Therefore, it is essential to study the main determinants of Kyrgyzstan's bilateral trade. In this way, we can help policy makers formulate policies to expand Kyrgyzstan's trade. This study is the first attempt to apply to the gravity model to Kyrgyzstan in an attempt to predict trade potential.

• 무역학회지
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• 제45권3호
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• pp.119-132
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• 2020

In this paper we explore the two analyses to know the urbanization effect on trade. First, the granger causality test to examine the relationship between trade and urbanization. The Granger causality test is a statistical hypothesis test for determining whether one time series is useful for forecasting another. The results indicated that the existence of a bidirectional causality running from trade to urbanization when six lags were applied. When eight lags were applied, we found unidirectional causality running from urbanization to trade. Second, gravity models were used to investigate the urbanization effect on trade. The production cost and specification are affected by the economies of scale, and the economies of scale increased as the greater geographically agglomeration. However, the gravity model to explain the bilateral trade flows ignores the urbanization variables. Therefore we added the urbanization variable represented as the geographically agglomeration into gravity model. The results show that the degree of urbanization of both countries has statistically positive effect on trade (export and import) and the bigger coefficients of trade partner's urbanization. The reason is that the trade share of industrial supplies, intermediate goods and capital goods is much higher than finished consumer goods. The urbanization is more important the improved the efficiency of production than demand market.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권7호
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• pp.403-411
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• 2021

This study discusses the influence of economic factors on the clothing exports from China and 15 South and Southeast Asian countries to the United States. A basic gravity trade model with three predictors, including the GDP value produced by exporting and importing countries and their geographical distance was established to explain the bilateral trade patterns. The conventional approach of multiple regression and the novel approach of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) were developed based on the value of clothing exports from 2012 to 2018 and applied to the trade pattern prediction of 2019. The results showed that ANNs can achieve a more accurate prediction in bilateral trade patterns than the commonly-used econometric analysis of the basic gravity trade model. Future studies can examine the predictive power of ANNs on an extended gravity model of trade that includes explanatory variables in social and environmental areas, such as policy, initiative, agreement, and infrastructure for trade facilitation, which are crucial for policymaking and managerial consideration. More research should be conducted for the examination of the balance between developing countries' economic growth and their social and environmental sustainability and for the application of more advanced machine-learning algorithms of global trade flow examination.

• 무역상무연구
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• 제77권
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• pp.195-214
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• 2018

In order to analyze the current status of trade with Korea and FTA partner countries, the Trade Intensity Index and the Market Comparative Advantage index were calculated and analyzed using panel gravity model. In the case of trade, trade intensity index has been strengthened according to each FTA enforecement, and in some cases, trade inensity has been weakened. In the case of the comparative advantage index, there was a case in which the comparative advantage was strengthened or the comparative advantage was not significantly changed according to each Chapter of HS code. This means that the Korea's FTA enforcement effect has not directly affected the increase of the trade intensity and the increase of the market comparative advantage index. The panel gravity model using the trade intensity and the comparative advantage index as the dependent variable and the trade volume between the two countries as the dependent variable was analyzed.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제26권5호
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• pp.56-75
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• 2022

Purpose - This study examines the influencing factors of China's cross-border e-commerce exports in the context of the current situation and trends of China's cross-border e-commerce development. Through an improved trade gravity model, it provides more in-depth research and constructive opinions on the development of cross-border e-commerce in China. In this paper, factors such as consumption gap, volume of trade frictions, number of tourists, Internet usage and trade openness are added to the formula of the traditional trade gravity model in the improved trade gravity model to examine the influencing factors on China's cross-border e-commerce exports. Design/methodology - According to the empirical analysis, China's cross-border e-commerce exports to ten countries are used as dependent variables, and consumption gap, trade friction volume, trade distance, trade openness and number of Internet users are taken as independent variables. Regression analysis is conducted through a modified gravity model to test whether the hypotheses hold. Findings - The analysis shows that the hypothesis that China's cross-border e-commerce exports are influenced by trade openness, trade distance, consumption gap between trade parties, and the number of Internet users in the importing country is supported by these four hypotheses, but not all independent variables have an impact on them. Specifically, the number of travelers, trade frictions do not have an impact on China's cross-border e-commerce. That is to say, trade friction between China and the United States and political issues such as China-India and China-Japan territorial disputes that emerged before do not affect the development of cross-border e-commerce in China. Originality/value - The analysis shows that the factors influencing China's cross-border e-commerce exports are the trade openness of the importing country, the trade distance, the number of Internet users in the importing country, and the consumption gap between the two sides of the trade. The trade openness and the number of Internet users positively contribute to China's cross-border e-commerce, while the consumption gap and trade distance are negatively related to them. And the analysis found that the Sino-US trade war and the Sino-Indian territorial disputes and other trade frictions to China's cross-border e-commerce exports did not have a substantial impact.

• 한국중재학회지:중재연구
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• 제26권2호
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• pp.91-114
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• 2016

The purpose of this study is to promote trade between Korea and South American countries. Korea's trade with South America has decreased recently. This study analyzed the effects of arbitration on trade between Korea and South America. To this end, we conducted an analysis of the gravity model of trade between Korea and South America. The gravity model is a research method that is widely used to analyze the pattern of international trade. The dependent variables of the gravity model were trade in Korea and South America. The independent variables were GDP, population, and distance between Korea and South America. In addition, dummy variables were the FTA and whether to join the New York Convention or Washington Convention. Joining either Convention indicated the establishment of an international arbitration system. As a result, an arbitration system appeared to be effective in increasing trade. Depending on the results it shows the importance of utilizing the system of arbitration in South America. So this study analyzed the current status of arbitration in South America. To companies doing business in South America it provided the implications for an arbitration system there. Also it proposed a method for increasing trade for the Korean government and institutions.

• 무역학회지
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• 제46권6호
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• pp.211-224
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• 2021

Based on the perspective of international trade and cross-border e-commerce development, this paper explores the impact of cross-border e-commerce on international trade. This paper first describes the current situation of China's cross-border e-commerce and proposes a theoretical model of the influence of China's cross-border e-commerce on its international trade based on the research and summary of a large number of relevant documents. This paper establishes an extended gravity model based on the proposed theoretical model. Relevant data of 13 trading partner countries were used as sample data, and OLS regression analysis and heterogeneity analysis were conducted on gravity model by using Eviews 11.0. Then, in order to study the influence of each variable on import and export trade volume, import and export trade volume were respectively taken as explained variables and further studied by OLS regression analysis. To test the robustness of the model, the empirical analysis results show that cross-border e-commerce does promote the volume of China's international trade.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.295-315
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• 2017

This paper derives the gravity equation with intermediate goods trade. We extend a standard monopolistic competition model to incorporate intermediate goods trade, and show that the gravity equation with intermediates trade is identical to the one without it except in that gross output should be used as the output measure instead of value added. We also show that the output elasticity of trade is significantly underestimated when value added is used as the output measure. This implies that with the conventional gravity equation, the contribution of output growth can be substantially underestimated and the role of trade costs reduction can be exaggerated in explaining trade expansion, as we demonstrate for the case of Korea's trade growth between 1995 and 2007.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제16권3호
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• pp.227-247
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• 2012

This paper investigates the source of bilateral trade imbalance at industry level. We build a simple model based on gravity theory and derive the prediction that the bilateral trade balance in an industry is increasing in the difference between trading partners in the output share of the industry. We test this prediction and find that the difference in industry share is highly significant in predicting both the sign and the magnitude of trade balance at industry level. We also find that FTAs tend to enlarge trade imbalance at industry level. However, the overall predictive power of the model is rather limited, suggesting that factors other than production specialization are important in determining trade balance at industry level. Another finding of the paper is that the influence of the difference in industry share on trade balance increases as we move to industries that produce more homogeneous products. This finding calls into question monopolistic competition as the main driver of gravity in international trade.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제5권3호
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• pp.43-50
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• 2018

The paper aims to investigate the impact of trade cost on export: A Case Study Vietnam. The study conducts a static linear panel data analysis on annual data covering bilateral export between Vietnam and 70 major importers of Vietnam from 2001 to 2013. The gravity model has been one of the most successful applications in empirical trade. In this paper we apply the gravity model to estimate the impact of trade cost on Vietnamese bilateral export value. The paper uses gravity model to estimate the impact of trade cost on Vietnamese bilateral export value. The empirical results derive from a static linear panel data analysis (fixed effects model) indicates that trade cost plays a crucial role in determining the export value that occurs between Vietnam and trading partners. Besides, population of importing country, trade openness of importing country, gross domestic product of importing country and gross domestic product of Vietnam are also significant determinants of Vietnamese bilateral export value. The main findings indicates that trade cost plays a very important role in the Vietnamese bilateral export performance. This suggests that the Vietnamese government should attempt to improve domestic trade costs to enhance competitiveness and increase export growth sustainably.