• Korea Trade Review
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• v.44 no.2
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• pp.51-62
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• 2019

This study predicts the future world seaborne trade volume with econometrics methods using 23-year time series data provided by Clarksons. For this purpose, this study uses simple regression analysis, exponential smoothing method and seemingly unrelated regression model (SUR Model). This study is meaningful in that it predicts worldwide total seaborne trade volume and seaborne traffic in four major items (container, bulk, crude oil, and LNG) from 2019 to 2023 as there are few prior studies that predict future seaborne traffic using recent data. It is expected that more useful references can be provided to trade related workers if the analysis period was increased and additional variables could be included in future studies.

• THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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• v.72
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• pp.139-160
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• 2016

Using the gravity model, this paper analyzes empirically how the world trade in goods is affected by regional trade agreements(RTAs) which have been spreading rapidly since the mid-1990s. This paper attempt to do the panel data analysis about 174 countries during the period of 1994-2008. These panel data include 157 RTAs. It is meaningful that this paper uses comprehensive data to analyze the net effect of regional trade agreements on the global trade volume. This provides a clue as to the answer to the stumbling block debate raised early in the regional trade agreement. Also, confirming how the participation of the WTO affected the trade volume among the member countries, the WTO-related dummy variables are additionally introduced to this gravity model. And as far as we know, the state system-related variables is first considered in this model. This variable reflects the social and cultural environments of countries as the proxy variable representing the sociocultural homogeneity. In all regressions, joining to the WTO and consistency of the state system have a positive effect on increasing the trade volumes between countries. According to the analysis of RTA trade effects, RTAs, on average, increase the volume of trade within the RTA region by 27%~37%, and decrease the volume of trade between the regional and the non-regional nation by 1.2%~3.4%.Therefore, the net effect of regional trade agreements on the promotion of global welfare is positive. For robustness check, we also introduce the interaction term of the dummy variable which reflects the RTA tightening and the continuous variable which reflects the distance effect. As a result, the RTAs alleviate the trade-decreasing effect which is caused by the distance between the countries.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.27 no.5
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• pp.153-166
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• 2023

Purpose - This research empirically analyzes the influence of economic policy uncertainty and free trade agreements (FTAs) on bilateral trade volumes between Korea and its trading partners. The study investigates whether fluctuations in the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPUI) for both Korea and its trading partners significantly impact trade volumes and whether the implementation of FTAs mitigates these effects. Design/methodology - The study employs dynamic panel data analysis using the system generalized method of moments (system GMM) estimation method to achieve its research objectives. It utilizes country-month-level panel data, including the EPUI, trade volume between Korea and its trading partner countries, and other pertinent variables. The use of system GMM allows for the control of potential endogeneity issues and the incorporation of country-specific and time-specific effects. Findings - The analysis yields significant results regarding the impact of economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports and imports, particularly before the implementation of FTAs. An increase in the EPUI of trading partners leads to a notable increase in Korea's exports to them. Conversely, an increase in Korea's EPUI negatively affects its imports from trading partners. However, post-FTA implementation, the influence of each country's EPUI on trade volume is neutralized, with no significant difference observed. Originality/value - This research contributes to the existing literature by providing empirical evidence on the interaction effects between economic policy uncertainty and FTAs on bilateral trade volumes. The study's uniqueness lies in its examination of how FTAs mitigate the impact of economic uncertainty on trade relations between countries. The findings underscore the importance of trade agreements as mechanisms to address economic risks and promote international trade relations. In a world where global market uncertainties persist, these insights can aid policymakers in Korea and other countries in enhancing their trade cooperation strategies and navigating challenges posed by evolving economic landscapes.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.5 no.3
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• pp.43-50
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• 2018

The paper aims to investigate the impact of trade cost on export: A Case Study Vietnam. The study conducts a static linear panel data analysis on annual data covering bilateral export between Vietnam and 70 major importers of Vietnam from 2001 to 2013. The gravity model has been one of the most successful applications in empirical trade. In this paper we apply the gravity model to estimate the impact of trade cost on Vietnamese bilateral export value. The paper uses gravity model to estimate the impact of trade cost on Vietnamese bilateral export value. The empirical results derive from a static linear panel data analysis (fixed effects model) indicates that trade cost plays a crucial role in determining the export value that occurs between Vietnam and trading partners. Besides, population of importing country, trade openness of importing country, gross domestic product of importing country and gross domestic product of Vietnam are also significant determinants of Vietnamese bilateral export value. The main findings indicates that trade cost plays a very important role in the Vietnamese bilateral export performance. This suggests that the Vietnamese government should attempt to improve domestic trade costs to enhance competitiveness and increase export growth sustainably.

• The Journal of Economics, Marketing and Management
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.29-39
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• 2018

Purpose - With the improvement of people's living standards, traveling abroad has become a common way for people to release the pressure of life and work. In economics, this kind of way can affect the international trade. Because of this background, this paper sets BRICS countries as an example to explore the impact of cross-border tourism on bilateral trade. Research design, data, and Methodology - The annual time series data sets form 1998 to 2016 are used to perform an empirical analysis under a series of econometric approaches such as the Phillips-Perron test and the Engle-Granger two-step test. In this paper, the cross-border tourism and the bilateral trade will be used to conduct an empirical analysis based on the econometric approaches to analyze the impact of cross-border tourism on bilateral trade. Results - The finding of this paper show that there is a long-run relationship between cross-border tourism and bilateral trade in this sample. Moreover, the cross-border tourism is the Granger causality of bilateral trade. Namely, the cross-border tourism can promote the development of bilateral trade. Conclusions - In short, the evidences that this paper presents show that the cross-border tourism is a driving factor that impacts the bilateral trade in the sample of BRICS countries.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.42 no.2
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• pp.277-296
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• 2017

More than 95% of imports and exports in the World are being transported by vessels. In other words, marine transportation accounts for a large portion of share in the world trade. The purpose of this study is to analyze factors of seaborne trade volume according to items affecting on the world economy. This study conducted a linear regression analysis between seaborne trade volume and the world economy (world GDP) to estimate the correlation between them. Panel data analysis and random effects model analysis have been applied to examine the effect of seaborne trade volume. For this study, the seaborne trade volume is categorized into 10 items, and estimated how much global GDP will be affected when the trade volume changes. In addition, the granger causality test was conducted to verify the relationship between seaborne trade volume and the world GDP. As a result, seaborne trade volume and the world GDP were mutually influenced each other. However, seaborne trade volume affects the world economy more significantly. The items affecting world economic growth include petroleum products, crude oil, chemical products, and so on. The estimated value of the coefficients of petroleum products, crude oil and chemical products were 1.014, 1.013 and 1.010, respectively. The estimated value 1.014 of petroleum products means that the growth rate is 1.014 times higher than the current world GDP growth rate when the seaborne trade volume of petroleum products increased by one unit Lastly, this study examines the seaborne trade volume of 10 categories and then verifies whether the growth rate of world GDP will increase when the volume of seaborne trade increased. This study is expected to provide policy-makers with useful information about formulating policies related to international trade.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.20-37
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• 2019

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to analyze the trade structure and competitiveness of China's information technology (IT) industry in comparison to that of Korea and the United States, particularly in terms of quality. Design/methodology/approach - Indices such as trade specialization index (TSI), Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), and Market Comparative Advantage (MCA) are used. Further, an Intra-industry Trade (IIT) index is used to analyze qualitative changes in horizontal intra-industry trade and intra-industry trade of high- and low-quality goods. Findings - China's IT industry has a comparative competitive advantage over that of Korea and the United States, and mainly exports goods of inferior quality and imports goods of superior quality. Further, China's horizontal intra-industry trade has been decreasing, while its vertical intra-industry trade has been increasing and vertical trade of inferior quality goods outweighs that of superior quality goods. This shows that China is rapidly catching up with Korea and the United States, even though its qualitative competitiveness has not significantly improved. Research limitations/implication - This study has academic and political implications, as it analyzes changes in China's IT trade competitiveness. However, it is somewhat limited as factors determining qualitative aspects has not been considered. Originality/value - Most studies aggregate analyses of export competitiveness using methodologies such as TSI, RCA, and market share. However, the focus of these methods is price competitiveness. Hence, an examination of the objective and qualitative trade competitiveness of China's IT industry is necessary. this study the trade structure and quantitative competitiveness of the industry by analyzing intra-industry trade focusing on the quality of competitiveness. Therefore, the changes in China's IT industry in the USA and Korea and in foreign trade competitiveness and quality competitiveness are clarified. The results show that the academic and policy implications of these changes in the IT industry will be a useful resource. This is the first study in Korea to attempt such an analysis. This is the first study in Korea to attempt such an analysis.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.11 no.9
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• pp.7-16
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• 2020

Purpose: Many studies show that promoting the development of trade facilitation has a positive role in stimulating the country's foreign trade. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the development level of trade facilitation for China's export trade. Research design, data and methodology:This study analyzes the growth trend of China's export trade volume in 2009-2019, the characteristics of China's export trade market according to the top 18 major exporting countries in 2017-2018, the structure of export commodities to understand China's economic development level, and compares the total amount of trade exported to all uses this to measure the level of trade development. On this basis, this paper selects the 2011-2018 Trade Facilitation Index and C continents to study the development trend. Based on the theory of trade facilitation, this paper constructs the Trade Facilitation Index, and hina's export trade volume for empirical research. Results: The results show that trade facilitation has a positive and significant impact on the development of China's export trade. Conclusions: Based on the analysis of the actual situations and empirical results, this paper puts forward some suggestions to promote the level of trade facilitation in order to promote the development of import and export trade.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.3
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• pp.75-92
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• 2022

This study aims to analyze the International trade network of Water transport service using Social Network Analysis for defining the status of Korean Water transport industry. This study use World Input-Output Table of Asian Development Bank from 2000 to 2020 and build the International trade matrix of Water transport service from that. Therefore, this study analyze Out-degree centrality, In-degree centrality and betweenness centrality of Korea and other main countries in the matrix of World Water transport industry. As a result, Korea rank above 10th in the all centralities and the total output also rank 8th in the world, therefore, this study show the importance of Korean Water transport industry in the world. However, Singapore has the highest centrality in the world, even though China has the largest Total output among 63 countries.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.1-18
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• 2023

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to study how flexibility and mutuality in determining trade terms impact logistics efficiency in the context of relational theory. Additionally, the effect of relational contracts on logistical efficiency relative to the value of the goods being traded is investigated. Design/methodology - According to the relational contract theory, we developed 17 factors utilizing a 7-point Likert scale to measure variables related to flexibility, mutuality, logistics efficiency, and the added value of goods. The survey occurred over four months, and was distributed directly, and via email, phone, and online Google surveys. A total of 403 surveys were collected out of 1,800 distributed, and 380 were analyzed. The principal respondents were import/export companies and members of the Korea International Trade Association and the Korea Small and Medium Business Export-Import Association. The collected data were analyzed using frequency analysis, exploratory factor analysis, and correlation analysis using SPSS ver. 26.0 statistical software, and hypothesis test results were derived using Process Macro ver. 3.5. Findings - This study provides evidence that negotiation flexibility for trade terms affects the efficiency of the logistics process, and the mutuality of such arrangements is shown to be associated with the flexibility and efficiency of logistics processes. Additionally, it has been established that companies whose trade goods possess a low degree of added value may experience increased efficiency in logistics operations if they agree to trade terms that are both flexible and mutually beneficial with their counterparts. Originality/value - This study suggests that in an environment of rapidly shifting global logistics and unpredictable related costs, trade companies may be able to improve logistics efficiency by establishing flexible, mutually beneficial trade terms when entering into contracts. Furthermore, it is suggested that companies dealing in low-value-added products may improve the logistical performance of approaching trade from a perspective of relational contracts.