• Title/Summary/Keyword: Total Investment Approach

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Extended Forecasts of a Stock Index using Learning Techniques : A Study of Predictive Granularity and Input Diversity

  • Kim, Steven H.;Lee, Dong-Yun
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.67-83
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    • 1997
  • The utility of learning techniques in investment analysis has been demonstrated in many areas, ranging from forecasting individual stocks to entire market indexes. To date, however, the application of artificial intelligence to financial forecasting has focused largely on short predictive horizons. Usually the forecast window is a single period ahead; if the input data involve daily observations, the forecast is for one day ahead; if monthly observations, then a month ahead; and so on. Thus far little work has been conducted on the efficacy of long-term prediction involving multiperiod forecasting. This paper examines the impact of alternative procedures for extended prediction using knowledge discovery techniques. One dimension in the study involves temporal granularity: a single jump from the present period to the end of the forecast window versus a web of short-term forecasts involving a sequence of single-period predictions. Another parameter relates to the numerosity of input variables: a technical approach involving only lagged observations of the target variable versus a fundamental approach involving multiple variables. The dual possibilities along each of the granularity and numerosity dimensions entail a total of 4 models. These models are first evaluated using neural networks, then compared against a multi-input jump model using case based reasoning. The computational models are examined in the context of forecasting the S&P 500 index.

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AN APPLICATION OF LAGRANGIAN RELAXATION ALD SUBGRADIENT METHOD FOR A DYNAMIC UNCAPAITATED FACILITY COCATION PROBLEM

  • Song, Jae-Wook;Kim, Sheung-Kown
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.47-58
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    • 1988
  • The dynamic uncapacitated facility location model is formulated by a mixed integer programming. It has the objective of minimizing total discounted costs for meeting demands specified in different time periods at various demand centers. Costs include those for operation of facilities to demand centers and a fixed cost associated with the capital investment. The problem is decomposed into two simple Lagrangian relaxed subproblems which are coordinated by Lagrangian multipliers. We explored the effect of using the subgradient optimization procedure and a viable solution approach is proposed. Computational results are presented and further research directions are discussed.

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Estimating DSM Potentials in Residential Sector (주거용부문의 DSM 절전잠재량 추정)

  • Rhee, Chang-Ho;Jo, In-Seung
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1997.07c
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    • pp.982-984
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    • 1997
  • DSM activities have grown and matured over several years in Korea. KEPCO is currently offering some DSM programs in industrial, commercial, and residential customers such as rebate program in purchasing efficient measures. The systematic evaluation process of energy savings and peak reduction will be very important for deciding on the optimal investment of DSM activities in utilities in the future. In general, the estimation process of the potential savings of DSM activities include the determination of baseline electricity consumption, the instantaneous technical potential (ITP), the phased technical potential (PTP), the economic potential (EP), and the achievable potential (AP). The purpose of this article is to provide evaluation process of those DSM potential savings based on bottom-up approach and applicate to residential sector in Korea. In case study, ITP, EP are estimated to be respectively 21.5%, 5.7% of total energy consumption, and 4.1%, 2.5% of peak load in 2010.

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A Comparative Analysis of Risk-to-Performance of Sale and Lease Back: Based on the cases of ship investment company investment and ship acquisition (매도후임대의 리스크 대비 성과의 비교분석: 선박투자회사 출자 및 선박 인수 사례를 중심으로)

  • Chang, Wook
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.135-149
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    • 2021
  • Purpose - I analyzes risk-to-performance evaluated in the market using data from sale and lease back. Specifically, I analyze from the perspective of financial institutions that purchase sale and lease back based on the cases of investment by ship investment companies and acquisition of ships. Design/methodology/approach - I use 49 sale and lease back data from 2017 to 2019 for empirical analysis. Findings - The main results of this paper are as follows. First, after sale and lease back of domestic ships, the average amount of sales by the leased shipping company is 25.1 billion won, the average amount of investment by the purchased financial institution is 14.6 billion won (60%) and the average length of the ship is nine years. In ship finance, sale and lease back is deemed to be appropriately used as a means of restructuring for a large amount of money. Second, the main risk factor for sale and lease back of domestic ships is credit risk and can be measured in VaR in practice. As a result of the empirical analysis, the average credit risk burden ratio is 9%. As a major risk factor, low creditworthiness of restructuring companies is the key. Third, as a result of measuring the profitability of financial institutions that purchase sale and lease back of domestic ships at a net current price, it has an average value of 300 million won, but the deviation by case is very large. Fourth, the risk adjusted performance of sale and lease back of domestic ships is 0.54 on average compared to the total risk capital, and 0.52 compared to the stock-risk capital, and as with profitability earlier, the deviation of each case is very large and misaligned. In order to boost the sale and lease back market for large and long-term assets, in order to overcome low profitability as a prerequisite for future participation of commercial purchased financial institutions, it is expected that purchase decisions based on expectations versus risk will be necessary. Research implications or Originality - The results of this paper are expected to broaden the understanding of sale and lease back and foster the ability to assess long-term risk and performance. Based on this, it is believed that rapid restructuring of companies through sale and lease back of large amounts of long-term assets will greatly increase the utility of the domestic financial market.

Dental implant cost by top-down approach (하향식(Top-down)방식을 적용한 치과 임플란트 원가산정)

  • Shin, Hosung;Kim, Min-Young
    • The Journal of the Korean dental association
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    • v.52 no.7
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    • pp.416-424
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the cost of dental implant by top-down method and, on that basis, to provide salient information for the suitable standard of dental insurance fee. A survey data and accounting documents from 36 samples of dental clinics secured with the organisation authority are used and analysed for extracting the representative sample of dental clinic. A researcher visited the dental clinics in person and conducted additional interviews in the omitted case of accounting documents. A dental implant cost by top-down method was estimated to 1,430,000 won. Labor cost accounted for 43% of the total cost structure, ranking it 1st and, management cost, material cost and interest cost on investment cost in order are investigated. Labor cost counts of the total cost that shows the similar aspect to the existing result. Cost in cost accounting of medical care would be used for the judge that cost pursed value for dental service, not price or fee.

Allocation of the Optimal Reliability and Maintainability in Manufacturing Systems (제조 시스템의 최적 신뢰도 및 보전도 할당)

  • 이상철
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.22 no.50
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    • pp.23-32
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    • 1999
  • Reliability and maintainability allocation in the analysis of the system's design, with the objective of planning and installing the individual components in such a way that the system performance is achieved. This paper has been made to solve an important task in reliability management of manufacturing systems within the general objective being to increase productivity while maintaining costs low. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to provide an analytical approach to determine an optimal reliability and maintainability allocation, trading off among system performance and parts investment costs. Two important considerations will be addressed in this regard : (ⅰ) determine the reliability and maintainability allocation of parts which maximizes a given production index, having fixed the total cost of investments ; and (ⅱ) determine the reliability and maintainability allocation which minimizes the total cost of investments, having fixed a minimum acceptable level of productivity. The procedure proposed in this paper is able to provide to managers and designers useful indications on the reliability and maintainability characteristics of parts in series -parallel systems. And this heuristic model is a decision support tool for contractors who are involved in large scale design projects such as ship and aircraft design. Numerical examples prove that an approximate expression of the average throughput rate is sufficiently accurate to be used in a numerical optimization method.

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A Study on the Assessment and Application of Outage Cost for Power System Expansion Planning (계통계획 수위용 공급지장비의 추정방법 및 이의 응용에 관한 연구)

  • 최재석;강성록;트룬틴트란;김호용;김슬기
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.53 no.5
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    • pp.285-295
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    • 2004
  • The outage cost assessment has an important position for determination of the optimal level or optimal range of reliability for power system expansion planning. Establishing the worth of service reliability is a very difficult and subjective task. While the utility cost(reliability cost) will generally increase as consumers are provided with higher reliability, the consumer costs(reliability worth) associated with supply interruptions will decrease as the reliability increases. The total costs to society are the sum of these two individual costs and the optimum or target level of reliability is achieved at minimum point of the total cost curve. This paper addresses the role, need and assessment algorithms and methodologies of the outage cost in power system expansion planning. In a case study, the outage cost has been assessed using macro approach for our country 15years(1986-200l) in the case study. Additionally, determination processing of optimum reliability level is presented in another case study with the five buses MRBTS.

A Comparative Analysis of Childcare Expansion and Social Investment in Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, Japan and South Korea (스웨덴, 프랑스, 독일, 영국, 일본, 한국의 아동 돌봄 체제와 사회투자에 대한 비교 연구)

  • An, Mi-Young
    • 한국사회정책
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.169-193
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    • 2013
  • This paper examines how a social investment approach can be applied in a comparative analysis of childcare arrangements. We compared changes in Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, Japan and Korea during the 2000s, focusing on four dimensions of social investment: activation, gender equality, quality of care, and the degree of state's intervention in the family. We considered leave systems and the number of children enrolled in formal care and education facilities as indicators for labour market activation. For gender equality, women's position in employment is considered with respect to labour market participation rates, proportion of permanent employment, and wage-sex ratio. Quality of care concerns child-to-staff ratio and care provided with government quality control. The state's intervention was measured as social spending on families as proportions of GDP and total social spending. Our analysis provides empirical evidence that Sweden and France are pioneers in this arena and that the UK, Germany, Korea, and Japan are path-shifters in their care paradigms, albeit to varying degrees. Is the social investment approach an adequate paradigm for care? In a normative sense, this approach has potential. However, the following issues remain unaddressed: gender equality should be achieved through an expansion in good-quality jobs, fathers should be encouraged to take on childcare duties, and families should have universal access to good-quality childcare services controlled by the government.

The Contribution of Innovation Activity to the Output Growth of Emerging Economies: The Case of Kazakhstan

  • Smagulova, Sholpan;Mukasheva, Saltanat
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.10 no.7
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    • pp.33-41
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is to analyse the state of the energy industry and to determine the efficiency of its functioning on the basis of energy conservation principle and application of innovative technologies aimed at improving the ecological modernisation of agricultural sectors of Kazakhstan. The research methodology is based on an integrated approach of financial and economic evaluation of the effectiveness of the investment project, based on calculation of elasticity, total costs and profitability, as well as on comparative, graphical and system analysis. The current stage is characterised by widely spread restructuring processes of electric power industry in many countries through introduction of new technical installations of energy facilities and increased government regulation in order to enhance the competitive advantage of electricity market. Electric power industry features a considerable value of creating areas. For example, by providing scientific and technical progress, it crucially affects not only the development but also the territorial organisation of productive forces, first of all the industry. In modern life, more than 90% of electricity and heat is obtained by Kazakhstan's economy by consuming non-renewable energy resources: different types of coal, oil shale, oil, natural gas and peat. Therefore, it is significant to ensure energy security, as the country faces a rapid fall back to mono-gas structure of fuel and energy balance. However, energy resources in Kazakhstan are spread very unevenly. Its main supplies are concentrated in northern and central parts of the republic, and the majority of consumers of electrical power live in the southern and western areas of the country. However, energy plays an important role in the economy of industrial production and to a large extent determines the level of competitive advantage, which is a promising condition for implementation of energy-saving and environmentally friendly technologies. In these circumstances, issues of modernisation and reforms of this sector in Kazakhstan gain more and more importance, which can be seen in the example of economically sustainable solutions of a large local monopoly company, significant savings in capital investment and efficiency of implementation of an investment project. A major disadvantage of development of electricity distribution companies is the prevalence of very high moral and physical amortisation of equipment, reaching almost 70-80%, which significantly increases the operating costs. For example, while an investment of 12 billion tenge was planned in 2009 in this branch, in 2012 it is planned to invest more than 17 billion. Obviously, despite the absolute increase, the rate of investment is still quite low, as the total demand in this area is at least more than 250 billion tenge. In addition, industrial infrastructure, including the objects of Kazakhstan electric power industry, have a tangible adverse impact on the environment. Thus, since there is a large number of various power projects that are sources of electromagnetic radiation, the environment is deteriorated. Hence, there is a need to optimise the efficiency of the organisation and management of production activities of energy companies, to create and implement new technologies, to ensure safe production and provide solutions to various environmental aspects. These are key strategic factors to ensure success of the modern energy sector of Kazakhstan. The contribution of authors in developing the scope of this subject is explained by the fact that there was not enough research in the energy sector, especially in the view of ecological modernisation. This work differs from similar works in Kazakhstan in the way that the proposed method of investment project calculation takes into account the time factor, which compares the current and future value of profit from the implementation of innovative equipment that helps to bring it to actual practise. The feasibility of writing this article lies in the need of forming a public policy in the industrial sector, including optimising the structure of energy disbursing rate, which complies with the terms of future modernised development of the domestic energy sector.

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Research Trends Analysis on ESG Using Unsupervised Learning

  • Woo-Ryeong YANG;Hoe-Chang YANG
    • The Journal of Economics, Marketing and Management
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.47-66
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to identify research trends related to ESG by domestic and overseas researchers so far, and to present research directions and clues for the possibility of applying ESG to Korean companies in the future and ESG practice through comparison of derived topics. Research design, data and methodology: In this study, as of October 20, 2022, after searching for the keyword 'ESG' in 'scienceON', 341 domestic papers with English abstracts and 1,173 overseas papers were extracted. For analysis, word frequency analysis, word co-occurrence frequency analysis, BERTopic, LDA, and OLS regression analysis were performed to confirm trends for each topic using Python 3.7. Results: As a result of word frequency analysis, It was found that words such as management, company, performance, and value were commonly used in both domestic and overseas papers. In domestic papers, words such as activity and responsibility, and in overseas papers, words such as sustainability, impact, and development were included in the top 20 words. As a result of analyzing the co-occurrence frequency of words, it was confirmed that domestic papers were related mainly to words such as company, management, and activity, and overseas papers were related to words such as investment, sustainability, and performance. As a result of topic modeling, 3 topics such as named ESG from the corporate perspective were derived for domestic papers, and a total of 7 topics such as named sustainable investment for overseas papers were derived. As a result of the annual trend analysis, each topic did not show a relatively increasing or decreasing tendency, confirming that all topics were neutral. Conclusions: The results of this study confirmed that although it is desirable that domestic papers have recently started research on consumers, the subject diversity is lower than that of overseas papers. Therefore, it is suggested that future research needs to approach various topics such as forecasting future risks related to ESG and corporate evaluation methods.