• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time-series data prediction

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Soil Moisture Modelling at the Topsoil of a Hillslope in the Gwangneung National Arboretum Using a Transfer Function (전이함수를 통한 광릉 산림 유역의 토양수분 모델링)

  • Choi, Kyung-Moon;Kim, Sang-Hyun;Son, Mi-Na;Kim, Joon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.35-46
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    • 2008
  • Soil moisture is one of the important components in hydrological processes and also controls the subsurface flow mechanism at a hillslope scale. In this study, time series of soil moisture were measured at a hillslope located in Gwangneung National Arboretum, Korea using a multiplex Time Domain Reflectometry(TDR) system measuring soil moisture with bi-hour interval. The Box-Jenkins transfer function and noise model was used to estimate spatial distributions of soil moisture histories between May and September, 2007. Rainfall was used as an input parameter and soil moisture at 10 cm depth was used as an output parameter in the model. The modeling process consisted of a series of procedures(e.g., data pretreatment, model identification, parameter estimation, and diagnostic checking of selected models), and the relationship between soil moisture and rainfall was assessed. The results indicated that the patterns of soil moisture at different locations and slopes along the hillslope were similar with those of rainfall during the measurment period. However, the spatial distribution of soil moisture was not associated with the slope of the monitored location. This implies that the variability of the soil moisture was determined more by rainfall than by the slope of the site. Due to the influence of vegetation activity on soil moisture flow in spring, the soil moisture prediction in spring showed higher variability and complexity than that in early autumn did. This indicates that vegetation activity is an important factor explaining the patterns of soil moisture for an upland forested hillslope.

A Study on the Tidal Harmonic Analysis, and long-term Sea Level Ocillations at Incheon Bay (인천만의 조석조화해석 및 장기해수면 변동연구)

  • Lee, Yong-Chang
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.505-513
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    • 2010
  • This study investigate the characteristics of tidal constituents, and long-term mean sea level oscillations at Incheon bay. For this, the conditions of three tide stations around Incheon bay have examined, and carried out harmonic analysis on water level data for periods of about 40 years(1960~2007). Four major tidal constituents($M_2$, $S_2$, $K_1$, $O_1$) of each tide station showed tendency that change over the 18.61year lunar node cycle, and the type of tide at three stations is mainly semi-diurnal tides. And also, the past monthly tidal modulations are especially sensitive to the cumulative year of water level data in accuracy of tidal prediction. In case that regard the detached data at three tide stations as a single time series data of 40 years, the results of analysis on a single time series, long-term mean sea level oscillations and modulations of tidal datum at tide stations appears with a range of about 10cm, respectively. In addition, the predicted tides at the Inchcon harbor by global and regional tide models of OSU(Oregon State University) based on various satellite altimetric(Topex Poseidon, Topex Tandem, ERS, GFO) data are compared with the observed tides by KHOA(the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Administration). The results show that the high resolution regional model is a quite good agreement at coastal shallow water region.

Utilizing On-Chain Data to Predict Bitcoin Prices based on LSTM (On-Chain Data를 활용한 LSTM 기반 비트코인 가격 예측)

  • An, Yu-Jin;Oh, Ha-Young
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.25 no.10
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    • pp.1287-1295
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    • 2021
  • During the past decade, it seems apparent that Bitcoin has been the best performing asset class. Even without a centralized authority that takes control over, Bitcoin, which started off with basically no value at all, reached around 65000 dollars in 2021, showing a movement that will definitely go down in history. Thus, even those who were skeptical of Bitcoin's intangible nature are stacking bitcoin as a huge part of their portfolios. Bitcoin's exponential growth in value also caught the attention of traditional banking and investment firms. Along with the spotlight Bitcoin is getting from the investment world, research using macro-economic variables and investor sentiment to explain Bitcoin's price movement has shown progress. However, previous studies do not make use of On-Chain Data, which are data processed using transaction data in Bitcoin's blockchain network. Therefore, in this paper, we will be utilizing LSTM, a method widely used for time-series data prediction, with On-Chain Data to predict the price of Bitcoin.

An Exploratory Methodology for Longitudinal Data Analysis Using SOM Clustering (자기조직화지도 클러스터링을 이용한 종단자료의 탐색적 분석방법론)

  • Cho, Yeong Bin
    • Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.100-106
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    • 2022
  • A longitudinal study refers to a research method based on longitudinal data repeatedly measured on the same object. Most of the longitudinal analysis methods are suitable for prediction or inference, and are often not suitable for use in exploratory study. In this study, an exploratory method to analyze longitudinal data is presented, which is to find the longitudinal trajectory after determining the best number of clusters by clustering longitudinal data using self-organizing map technique. The proposed methodology was applied to the longitudinal data of the Employment Information Service, and a total of 2,610 samples were analyzed. As a result of applying the methodology to the actual data applied, time-series clustering results were obtained for each panel. This indicates that it is more effective to cluster longitudinal data in advance and perform multilevel longitudinal analysis.

A Study on the Rainfall-Runoff Analysis of Using Satellite Image (위성영상정보를 이용한 강우유출 해석에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Young-Kee;Lee, Jeung-Seok;Park, Jeong-Gyu
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.115-124
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    • 2010
  • Urban watershed can be found in the visible changes in technology, the most realistic satellite images is to use the data. Satellite image data on the indicators for progress on the nature of the change of land use is consistent and repetitive information, regular observation makes possible the detailed analysis of space-time. These remote sensing techniques and the type of course and, by using the time series history, the past, the dynamic model and the randomized prediction methodology for the conversion process if the city and river basin cooperation of the space changes effectively will be able to extrapolate. For each of the main changes in river flow, depending on the area of urbanization as determined according to reproduce the duration of the relationship between the urbanization of the area and runoff can be represented as a linear polynomial expression was, if a linear expression in the two fast slew rate of 0.858 to 0.861 showed up, and fast slew rate of 0.934 to 0.974 for the polynomial are reported. Change of land use changes in the watershed of the flow is one of the most affecting elements. Therefore, changes in land use of the correct classification of rivers is a more accurate calculation of the amount of the floodgate. In particular, using the Landsat images through the image of the land use category, land use past data and calculated using the Markov Chain model and predict the future land use plan in the water control project will be used for large likely.

A study on stock price prediction system based on text mining method using LSTM and stock market news (LSTM과 증시 뉴스를 활용한 텍스트 마이닝 기법 기반 주가 예측시스템 연구)

  • Hong, Sunghyuck
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.18 no.7
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    • pp.223-228
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    • 2020
  • The stock price reflects people's psychology, and factors affecting the entire stock market include economic growth rate, economic rate, interest rate, trade balance, exchange rate, and currency. The domestic stock market is heavily influenced by the stock index of the United States and neighboring countries on the previous day, and the representative stock indexes are the Dow index, NASDAQ, and S & P500. Recently, research on stock price analysis using stock news has been actively conducted, and research is underway to predict the future based on past time series data through artificial intelligence-based analysis. However, even if the stock market is hit for a short period of time by the forecasting system, the market will no longer move according to the short-term strategy, and it will have to change anew. Therefore, this model monitored Samsung Electronics' stock data and news information through text mining, and presented a predictable model by showing the analyzed results.

Simple Kinematic Model Generation by Learning Control Inputs and Velocity Outputs of a Ship (선박의 제어 입력과 속도 출력 학습에 의한 단순 운동학 모델 생성)

  • Kim, Dong Jin;Yun, Kunhang
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.45 no.6
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    • pp.284-297
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    • 2021
  • A simple kinematic model for the prediction of ship manoeuvres based on trial data is proposed in this study. The model consists of first order differential equations in surge, sway, and yaw directions which simulate the time series of each velocity component. Actually instead of sea trial data, dynamic model simulations are conducted with randomly varied control inputs such as propeller revolution rates and rudder angles. Based on learning of control inputs and velocity outputs of dynamic model simulations in sufficient time, kinematic model coefficients are optimized so that the kinematic model can be approximately reproduce the velocity outputs of dynamic model simulations with arbitrary control inputs. The resultant kinematic model is verified with new dynamic simulation sets.

Google Search Trends Predicting Disease Outbreaks: An Analysis from India

  • Verma, Madhur;Kishore, Kamal;Kumar, Mukesh;Sondh, Aparajita Ravi;Aggarwal, Gaurav;Kathirvel, Soundappan
    • Healthcare Informatics Research
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.300-308
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    • 2018
  • Objectives: Prompt detection is a cornerstone in the control and prevention of infectious diseases. The Integrated Disease Surveillance Project of India identifies outbreaks, but it does not exactly predict outbreaks. This study was conducted to assess temporal correlation between Google Trends and Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme (IDSP) data and to determine the feasibility of using Google Trends for the prediction of outbreaks or epidemics. Methods: The Google search queries related to malaria, dengue fever, chikungunya, and enteric fever for Chandigarh union territory and Haryana state of India in 2016 were extracted and compared with presumptive form data of the IDSP. Spearman correlation and scatter plots were used to depict the statistical relationship between the two datasets. Time trend plots were constructed to assess the correlation between Google search trends and disease notification under the IDSP. Results: Temporal correlation was observed between the IDSP reporting and Google search trends. Time series analysis of the Google Trends showed strong correlation with the IDSP data with a lag of -2 to -3 weeks for chikungunya and dengue fever in Chandigarh (r > 0.80) and Haryana (r > 0.70). Malaria and enteric fever showed a lag period of -2 to -3 weeks with moderate correlation. Conclusions: Similar results were obtained when applying the results of previous studies to specific diseases, and it is considered that many other diseases should be studied at the national and sub-national levels.

Implementation of CNN-based classification model for flood risk determination (홍수 위험도 판별을 위한 CNN 기반의 분류 모델 구현)

  • Cho, Minwoo;Kim, Dongsoo;Jung, Hoekyung
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.341-346
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    • 2022
  • Due to global warming and abnormal climate, the frequency and damage of floods are increasing, and the number of people exposed to flood-prone areas has increased by 25% compared to 2000. Floods cause huge financial and human losses, and in order to reduce the losses caused by floods, it is necessary to predict the flood in advance and decide to evacuate quickly. This paper proposes a flood risk determination model using a CNN-based classification model so that timely evacuation decisions can be made using rainfall and water level data, which are key data for flood prediction. By comparing the results of the CNN-based classification model proposed in this paper and the DNN-based classification model, it was confirmed that it showed better performance. Through this, it is considered that it can be used as an initial study to determine the risk of flooding, determine whether to evacuate, and make an evacuation decision at the optimal time.

A Study on the Thermal Prediction Model cf the Heat Storage Tank for the Optimal Use of Renewable Energy (신재생 에너지 최적 활용을 위한 축열조 온도 예측 모델 연구)

  • HanByeol Oh;KyeongMin Jang;JeeYoung Oh;MyeongBae Lee;JangWoo Park;YongYun Cho;ChangSun Shin
    • Smart Media Journal
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    • v.12 no.10
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    • pp.63-70
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    • 2023
  • Recently, energy consumption for heating costs, which is 35% of smart farm energy costs, has increased, requiring energy consumption efficiency, and the importance of new and renewable energy is increasing due to concerns about the realization of electricity bills. Renewable energy belongs to hydropower, wind, and solar power, of which solar energy is a power generation technology that converts it into electrical energy, and this technology has less impact on the environment and is simple to maintain. In this study, based on the greenhouse heat storage tank and heat pump data, the factors that affect the heat storage tank are selected and a heat storage tank supply temperature prediction model is developed. It is predicted using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), which is effective for time series data analysis and prediction, and XGBoost model, which is superior to other ensemble learning techniques. By predicting the temperature of the heat pump heat storage tank, energy consumption may be optimized and system operation may be optimized. In addition, we intend to link it to the smart farm energy integrated operation system, such as reducing heating and cooling costs and improving the energy independence of farmers due to the use of solar power. By managing the supply of waste heat energy through the platform and deriving the maximum heating load and energy values required for crop growth by season and time, an optimal energy management plan is derived based on this.