• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time-series change

Search Result 935, Processing Time 0.024 seconds

Projection of 21st Century Climate over Korean Peninsula: Temperature and Precipitation Simulated by WRFV3.4 Based on RCP4.5 and 8.5 Scenarios (21세기 한반도 기후변화 전망: WRF를 이용한 RCP 4.5와 8.5 시나리오 기온과 강수)

  • Ahn, Joong-Bae;Choi, Yeon-Woo;Jo, Sera;Hong, Ja-Young
    • Atmosphere
    • /
    • v.24 no.4
    • /
    • pp.541-554
    • /
    • 2014
  • Historical, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios from HadGEM2-AO are dynamically downscaled over the northeast East Asia with WRFV3.4. The horizontal resolution of the produced data is 12.5 km and the periods of integration are 1979~2010 for historical and 2019~2100 for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We analyze the time series, climatology, EOF and extreme climate in terms of 2 m-temperature and precipitation during 30-year for the Historical (1981~2010) and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (2071~2100) scenarios. According to the result, the temperature of the northeast Asia centered at the Korean Peninsula increase 2.9 and $4.6^{\circ}C$ in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. The temperature increases with latitude and the increase is larger in winter rather than in summer. The annual mean precipitation is expected to increase by about $0.3mm\;day^{-1}$ in RCP4.5 scenario and $0.5mm\;day^{-1}$ in RCP8.5 scenario. The EOF analysis is also performed for both temperature and precipitation. For temperature, the EOF $1^{st}$ modes of all scenarios in summer and winter show that temperature increase with latitude. The $2^{nd}$ mode of EOF of each scenario shows the natural variability, exclusive of the global warming. The summer precipitation over the Korean Peninsula projected increases in EOF $1^{st}$ modes of all scenarios. For extreme climate, the increment of the number of days with daily maximum temperature above $30^{\circ}C$ per year ($DAY_{TX30}$) is 25.3 and 49.7 days in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively over the Korean Peninsula. The number of days with daily precipitation above $20mm\;day^{-1}$ per year ($DAY_{PR20}$) also increases 3.1 and 3.5 days in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively.

Numerical Analysis on Liquefaction Countermeasure of Seabed under Submerged Breakwater Using Concrete Mat Cover (for Irregular Waves) (콘크리트매트 피복을 이용한 잠제하 해저지반에서의 액상화 대책공법에 관한 수치해석 (불규칙파 조건))

  • Lee, Kwang-Ho;Ryu, Heung-Won;Kim, Dong-Wook;Kim, Do-Sam;Kim, Tae-Hyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
    • /
    • v.29 no.1
    • /
    • pp.20-35
    • /
    • 2017
  • In the case of the seabed around and under gravity structures such as submerged breakwater is exposed to a large wave action long period, the excess pore pressure will be significantly generated due to pore volume change associated with rearrangement soil grains. This effect will lead a seabed liquefaction around and under structures as a result of the decrease in the effective stress, and eventually the possibility of structure failure will be increased. The study of liquefaction potential for regular waves had already done, and this study considered for irregular waves with the same numerical analysis method used for regular waves. Under the condition of the irregular wave field, the time and spatial series of the deformation of submerged breakwater, the pore water pressure (oscillatory and residual components) and pore water pressure ratio in the seabed were estimated and their results were compared with those of the regular wave field to evaluate the liquefaction potential on the seabed quantitatively. Although present results are based on a limited number of numerical simulations, one of the study's most important findings is that a safer design can be obtained when analyzing case with a regular wave condition corresponding to a significant wave of the irregular wave.

Variability of Sea Levels Associated with the Tsushima Current in the Korea Strait (대마난류와 관련된 대한해협 해수면의 변동)

  • LEE Jae-Chul;CHO Kyu-Dae;KIM Soon-Young;KIM Ho-Kyun;SHIM Tae-Bo
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
    • /
    • v.24 no.6
    • /
    • pp.437-449
    • /
    • 1991
  • Time series of barometrically adjusted sea level at Pusan, Izuhara and Hakada are analyzed to study the fluctuations of the Tsushima Current through the Korea Strait. Variability of sea levels and their differences is divided into two parts with respect to the frequency of 0.01 or 0.02 cycles per day(cpd) At lower frequency, both of sea levels and sea level difference(SLD) are coherent and in phase to each other. Pusan has smaller seasonal variations in sea level than other two stations because the effects of geostrophic current and prevailing wind have a negative influence on the seasonal thermosteric contribution to sea level change. Low frequency variability of SLD thus of the Tsushima Current is much greater in the western channel. For higher frequency parts, SLD in the eastern channel has larger variability and is not coherent with that of the western channel. Sea levels at Pusan and Izuhara are $180^{\circ}$ out of phase with SLD in the western and eastern channel respectively, whereas the Hakada level is in phase. This result indicates that eastern channel has a normal response to the along-channel winds and cross-channel geostrophy because Izuhara faces the eastern channel.

  • PDF

A Study on the Transport-related Impacts of Flexible Working Policy using Activity-Based Model (활동기반모형을 이용한 유연근무제의 교통부문 영향 연구)

  • CHO, Sung-Jin;BELLEMANS, Tom;JOH, Chang-Hyeon;CHOI, Keechoo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.35 no.6
    • /
    • pp.511-524
    • /
    • 2017
  • This study aims to evaluate the availability of ABM (Active-Based Model), FEATHERS, as a policy evaluation tool. To achieve the goal, scenario analysis on flexible working policy was conducted to measure its impact on activity-travel behavior. As a consequence, there seems no significant change in worker's daily life, other than mitigating traffic congestion due to decreasing commuting travel in the rush hour. The result of VKT (vehicle kilometers traveled) shows an opposite pattern according to given household/individual constraints. The scenario analysis on telecommuting indicates a decreasing trend in both travel frequency and distance because of the diminished number of commuting trips. As the activity space of telecommuters is shifted to a residential area, there are more short-distance trips by using non-motorized transport, which leads to decrease in VKT (using a private vehicle). Thus, the sensitivity of VKT by population groups varies due to transport mode shift (between personal and another mode) and growing non-work trips (using a private mode). This study found few things. First, it is necessary to evaluate the details of policy impact by population groups since it can be varied depending on household/individual characteristics. Second, the case study shows a promising performance of ABM as policy measurement that provides reality in policy evaluation. Third, ABM allows us to do more accurate analysis (i.e. time-series analysis by population groups) of policy assessment than those of FSM (Four-Step Model). Lastly, a further effort in data collection, literature review, and expert survey should be made to enhance the accuracy and confidence of future research.

Numerical Analysis on Liquefaction Countermeasure of Seabed under Submerged Breakwater using Concrete Mat Cover (for Regular Waves) (콘크리트매트 피복을 이용한 잠제하 해저지반에서의 액상화 대책공법에 관한 수치해석(규칙파 조건))

  • Lee, Kwang-Ho;Ryu, Heung-Won;Kim, Dong-Wook;Kim, Do-Sam;Kim, Tae-Hyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
    • /
    • v.28 no.6
    • /
    • pp.361-374
    • /
    • 2016
  • When the seabed around and under gravity structures such as submerged breakwater is exposed to a large wave action long period, the excess pore pressure is generated significantly due to pore volume change associated with rearrangement soil grains. This effect leads a seabed liquefaction around and under structures as a result from decrease in the effective stress, and the possibility of structure failure is increased eventually. These facts shown above have been investigated in the previous studies related to regular and irregular waves. This study suggested a concrete mat for preventing the seabed liquefaction near the submerged breakwater. The concrete mat was mainly used as a countermeasure for scouring protection in riverbed. According to installation of the concrete mattress, the time and spatial series of the deformation of submerged breakwater, the pore water pressure, and the pore water pressure ratio in the seabed were investigated. Their results were also compared with those of the seabed unprotected with the concrete mat. The results presented were confirmed that the liquefaction potential of seabed under the concrete mattress is significantly reduced under regular wave field.

Understanding of Surface Water-Groundwater Connectivity in an Alluvial Plain using Statistical Methods (통계기법을 활용한 충적층내 지하수-지표수 연계 특성 해석)

  • Kim, Gyoo-Bum;Son, Young-Chul;Lee, Seung-Hyun;Jeong, An-Chul;Cha, Eun-Jee;Ko, Min-Jeong
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
    • /
    • v.22 no.2
    • /
    • pp.207-221
    • /
    • 2012
  • A statistical analysis of time series of water level at 27 groundwater monitoring wells was conducted to analyze the surface water-groundwater connectivity in the wide alluvial plains surrounding the Nakdong River, Korea. Change in groundwater level is strongly related to river water level, yielding an average cross-correlation coefficient of 0.601, which is much higher than that between rainfall and groundwater level (0.125). Principal component analysis of groundwater level indicates that wells in the study area can be classified into two groups: wells in Group A are located close to a river, have water levels closely related to river level, and generally show a large increase in groundwater level during heavy rainfall. On the other hand, wells in Group B located far from a river are relatively less related to river level. Including hydrologic and statistical analyses, geochemical analysis and temperature monitoring are additionally required to reveal the relationship between surface water level and groundwater level, and to assess the possibility of groundwater flooding.

Review and Comparative Analysis of Forest Biomass Estimation Using Remotely Sensed Data: from Five Different Perspectives (원격탐사자료를 이용한 국외 산림 바이오매스 추정 현황 및 비교분석: 다섯 가지 관점에서의 고찰)

  • Cho, Kyung-Hun;Heo, Joon;Jung, Jae-Hoon;Kim, Chang-Jae;Kim, Kyung-Min
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
    • /
    • v.19 no.1
    • /
    • pp.87-96
    • /
    • 2011
  • Carbon emissions and storages that are strongly related to global warming has have emerged as one of the important issues while many governments and researchers have been interested in climate change and pollution. In this regards, forest biomass estimation is quite importance since forest biomass works as an important medium of the global carbon cycle between the atmosphere and soil. Forest biomass estimation through field survey needs lots of time and labors, and has accessibility issues. Hence, many researchers have focused on the forest biomass approaches based on remotely sensed data. This research comprehensively reviewed forty one international studies using remote sensing data according to five different categories (i.e., location of study area, size of study area, biome, used remote sensing data, and estimation technology). It would be expected that the results of this study can be used for suggesting domestic research directions; domestic research in this field is at the beginning stage in terms of level of technologies and useful materials. As results, 39% out of the reviewed studies used the areas located in North America. 59% out of the researches dealt with small size of the study areas (less than 3,600km2). In case of biome, around 30% of the studies focused on the boreal/taiga areas. Moreover, 35% and 16% of the studies were carried out using Landsat series and Lidar data, respectively. Finally, regression analysis method was most frequently used for forest biomass estimation by 71% out of 41 studies.

Classification of Crop Cultivation Areas Using Active Learning and Temporal Contextual Information (능동 학습과 시간 문맥 정보를 이용한 작물 재배지역 분류)

  • KIM, Ye-Seul;YOO, Hee-Young;PARK, No-Wook;LEE, Kyung-Do
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
    • /
    • v.18 no.3
    • /
    • pp.76-88
    • /
    • 2015
  • This paper presents a classification method based on the combination of active learning with temporal contextual information extracted from past land-cover maps for the classification of crop cultivation areas. Iterative classification based on active learning is designed to extract reliable training data and cultivation rules from past land-cover maps are quantified as temporal contextual information to be used for not only assignment of training data but also relaxation of spectral ambiguity. To evaluate the applicability of the classification method proposed in this paper, a case study with MODIS time-series vegetation index data sets and past cropland data layers(CDLs) is carried out for the classification of corn and soybean in Illinois state, USA. Iterative classification based on active learning could reduce misclassification both between corn and soybean and between other crops and non crops. The combination of temporal contextual information also reduced the over-estimation results in major crops and led to the best classification accuracy. Thus, these case study results confirm that the proposed classification method can be effectively applied for crop cultivation areas where it is not easy to collect the sufficient number of reliable training data.

Irregular Waves-Induced Seabed Dynamic Responses around Submerged Breakwater (불규칙파동장하 잠제 주변지반의 동적거동에 관한 수치해석)

  • Lee, Kwang-Ho;Ryu, Heung-Won;Kim, Dong-Wook;Kim, Do-Sam;Kim, Tae-Hyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
    • /
    • v.28 no.4
    • /
    • pp.177-190
    • /
    • 2016
  • In case of the seabed around and under gravity structures such as submerged breakwater is exposed to a large wave action long period, the excess pore pressure will be generated significantly due to pore volume change associated with rearrangement soil grains. This effect will lead a seabed liquefaction around and under structures as a result from decrease in the effective stress. Under the seabed liquefaction occurred and developed, the possibility of structure failure will be increased eventually. Lee et al.(2016) studied for regular waves, and this study considered for irregular waves with the same numerical analysis method used for regular waves. Under the condition of the irregular wave field, the time and spatial series of the deformation of submerged breakwater, the pore water pressure (oscillatory and residual components) and pore water pressure ratio in the seabed were estimated and their results were compared with those of the regular wave field to evaluate the liquefaction potential on the seabed quantitatively. Although present results are based on a limited number of numerical simulations, one of the study's most important findings is that a more safe design can be obtainable when analyzing case with a regular wave condition corresponding to a significant wave of irregular wave.

Flood Forecasting and Warning Using Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Technique (Neuro-Fuzzy 추론기법을 이용한 홍수 예.경보)

  • Yi, Jae-Eung;Choi, Chang-Won
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.41 no.3
    • /
    • pp.341-351
    • /
    • 2008
  • Since the damage from the torrential rain increases recently due to climate change and global warming, the significance of flood forecasting and warning becomes important in medium and small streams as well as large river. Through the preprocess and main processes for estimating runoff, diverse errors occur and are accumulated, so that the outcome contains the errors in the existing flood forecasting and warning method. And estimating the parameters needed for runoff models requires a lot of data and the processes contain various uncertainty. In order to overcome the difficulties of the existing flood forecasting and warning system and the uncertainty problem, ANFIS(Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) technique has been presented in this study. ANFIS, a data driven model using the fuzzy inference theory with neural network, can forecast stream level only by using the precipitation and stream level data in catchment without using a lot of physical data that are necessary in existing physical model. Time series data for precipitation and stream level are used as input, and stream levels for t+1, t+2, and t+3 are forecasted with this model. The applicability and the appropriateness of the model is examined by actual rainfall and stream level data from 2003 to 2005 in the Tancheon catchment area. The results of applying ANFIS to the Tancheon catchment area for the actual data show that the stream level can be simulated without large error.