• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time-series change

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Realistic Analysis Method for Continuously Block-Placed Mass Concrete Structures Considering Block Size and Sequence of Concrete Placement (매스 콘크리트 구조물의 연속 분할타설시 타설블록의 크기 및 타설순서를 고려한 합리적인 수화열 해석)

  • 오병환;전세진;유성원
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.59-67
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    • 1999
  • The mass concrete structures are generally constructed in an incremental manner by deviding the whole structures by a series of many blocks. The temperature and stress distributions of any specific block are continuously affected by the blocks placed before and after the specific block. For an accurate analysis of mass concrete structures, the sequence of all the blocks must be accordingly considered including the change of material properties with time for those blocks considered. The purpose of this study is to propose a realistic analysis method which can take into account not only the influence of the sequence, time interval and size of concrete block placement on the temperatures and stresses, but also the change of material properties with time. It is seen from this study that the conventional simplified analysis, which neglects material property changes of some blocks with time and does not consider the effect of adjacent blocks in the analysis, may yield large discrepancies in the temperature and stress distributions of mass concrete structures. This study gives a method to choose the minimum number of blocks required to obtain reasonably accurate results in analysis. The study provides a realistic method which can determine the appropriate size and time interval of block placement, and can be efficiently used in the design and construction of mass concrete structures.

An Analysis of the Effect of Climate Change on Nakdong River Environmental Flow (낙동강 유역 환경유량에 대한 기후변화의 영향 분석)

  • Lee, A Yeon;Kim, Sangdan
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.273-285
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    • 2011
  • This study describes the modeling of climate change impact on runoff across southeast Korea using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model TANK and assesses the results using the concept of environmental flows developed by International Water Management Institute. The future climate time series is obtained by scaling the historical series, informed by 4 global climate models and 3 greenhouse gas emission scenarios, to reflect a $4.0^{\circ}C$ increase at most in average surface air temperature and 31.7% increase at most in annual precipitation, using the spatio-temporal changing factor method that considers changes in the future mean seasonal rainfall and potential evapotranspiration as well as in the daily rainfall distribution. Although the simulation results from different global circulation models and greenhouse emission scenarios indicate different responses in flows to the climate change, the majority of the modeling results show that there will be more runoff in southeast Korea in the future. However, there is substantial uncertainty, with the results ranging from a 5.82% decrease to a 48.15% increase in the mean annual runoff averaged across the study area according to the corresponding climate change scenarios. We then assess the hydrologic perturbations based on the comparison between present and future flow duration curves suggested by IMWI. As a result, the effect of hydrologic perturbation on aquatic ecosystems may be significant at several locations of the Nakdong river main stream in dry season.

A spectrum based evaluation algorithm for micro scale weather analysis module with application to time series cluster analysis (스펙트럼분석 기반의 미기상해석모듈 평가알고리즘 제안 및 시계열 군집분석에의 응용)

  • Kim, Hea-Jung;Kwak, Hwa-Ryun;Kim, Yu-Na;Choi, Young-Jean
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.41-53
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    • 2015
  • In meteorological field, many researchers have tried to develop micro scale weather analysis modules for providing real-time weather information service in the metropolitan area. This effort enables us to cope with various economic and social harms coming from serious change in the micro meteorology of a metropolitan area due to rapid urbanization such as quantitative expansions in its urban activity, growth of population, and building concentration. The accuracy of the micro scale weather analysis modules (MSWAM) directly related to usefulness and quality of the real-time weather information service in the metropolitan area. This paper design a evaluation system along with verification tools that sufficiently accommodate spatio-temporal characteristics of the outputs of the MSWAM. For this we proposes a test for the equality of mean vectors of the output series of the MSWAM and corresponding observed time series by using a spectral analysis technique. As a byproduct, a time series cluster analysis method, using a function of the test statistic as the distance measure, is developed. A real data application is given to demonstrate the utility of the method.

A Study on the Cutting Tool Wear by Time Series Approach (시계열분석 방법 에 의한 절삭공구 의 마멸 에 관한 연구)

  • 김광준;황홍연
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.450-461
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    • 1984
  • A new indirect tool wear sensing technique is proposed using time series analysis. The acceleration measured on the tool post in the vertical direction during turning is sampled with uniform interval, and fitted following the ARMA modeling procedures. Various signal characteristics are observed in respect with the progress of flank wear. From those observations it is believed that; *The variance of the signal is approximately proportional to the increase of flank wear. *The absolute power of a dynamic mode decreases in the beginning of cutting until the maximum flank wear increases up to 0.4-0.5mm, and then increases. *The other characteristics are not so much related to the tool wear as the signal variance and the absolute power of a dynamic mode. Hence, the absolute power of a dynamic mode seems to be a good factor for the indication of tool-change time regardless of tool material or cutting conditions.

Time Series Change Characteristics of Unconfined Groundwater Wells Temperatures for Agricultural Water Use (농업용수 활용을 위한 비피압지하수관정 수온의 시계열 변동특성)

  • Park, Seung Ki;Jung, Nam Su
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.13-23
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    • 2016
  • There is a need to analyze unconfined groundwater behavior since the demand of groundwater use has been increasing. While unconfined groundwater temperature is tend to be affected by air temperature, it is hard to find an empirical study in South Korea. In this research, we try to determine the relationship between daily average air temperature and daily average groundwater temperature by time-sequential analysis of groundwater monitoring wells in Galshin basin in Yesan-Gun, Chungcheongnam-Do. In addition, models to estimate groundwater temperature from air temperature were developed. In this research 101-day moving average method with measured air temperature is used to estimate groundwater temperature. To verify the developed model, estimated values of average groundwater temperature with 101 moving average are compared to the measured data from September 10 2007 to September 9 2008. And, Nash-Stucliff Efficiency and Coefficient of Determination were 0.970 and 0.976, therefore it was concluded that the model allowing groundwater temperature estimation from air temperature is with reasonable applicability.

Sectoral Contribution to Economic Development in India: A Time-Series Co-Integration Analysis

  • SOLANKI, Sandip;INUMULA, Krishna Murthy;CHITNIS, Asmita
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.9
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    • pp.191-200
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    • 2020
  • This research paper examines the causal relationship between India's economic growth and sectoral contribution to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and vice versa, in the short-run and long-run, over a 10 years time period. Johansen's method of cointegration is used to study the cointegration between the sectoral contributions to Indian GDP vis-à-vis India's economic growth. Further, the route of interconnection between economic growth and sectoral contribution is tested by using Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model. Special attention was given for investigating impulse responses of economic growth depending on the innovations in sectoral contribution using time-series data from 1960 to 2015. This paper highlighted a dynamic co-relationship among industrial sector contribution and agricultural sector contribution and economic development. In the long run, one percent change in industrial sector contribution causes an increase of 3.42 percent in the economic growth and an increase of 1.12 percent in the primary sector contribution, while in the short run industrial and service sector contributions showed significant impact on economic development and agriculture sector. The changing composition of sector contribution is going to be an important activity for the policymakers to monitor and control where the technology and integration of sectors play a significant role in economic development.

A study on the violent crime and control factors in Korea (한국의 강력 범죄 발생 추이 및 통제 요인 연구)

  • Kwon, Tae Yeon;Jeon, Saebom
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.1511-1523
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    • 2016
  • The increasing trend of the five violent crimes (murder, robbery, rape, violence, theft) in Korea is not independent of social and economic factors. Several social science research have discussed about this issue but most of them do not properly reflect the nature of the time-series data. Based on several time series models, we studied about the endogenous factors (time, seasonal and cycle factors) and exogenous factors (economical, social change and crime control factors) on violent crime occur in Korea. Autocorrelation were also taken into account. Through this study, we want to help to make preventive policy by explaining the cause of violent crime and predicting the future incidence of it.

Development of a Baseline Setting Model Based on Time Series Structural Changes for Priority Assessment in the Korea Risk Information Surveillance System (K-RISS) (식·의약 위해 감시체계(K-RISS)의 우선순위 평가를 위한 시계열 구조변화 기반 기준선 설정 모델 개발)

  • Hyun Joung Jin;Seong-yoon Heo;Hunjoo Lee;Boyoun Jang
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.50 no.2
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    • pp.125-137
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    • 2024
  • Background: The Korea Risk Information Surveillance System (K-RISS) was developed to enable the early detection of food and drug safety-related issues. Its goal is to deliver real-time risk indicators generated from ongoing food and drug risk monitoring. However, the existing K-RISS system suffers under several limitations. Objectives: This study aims to augment K-RISS with more detailed indicators and establish a severity standard that takes into account structural changes in the daily time series of K-RISS values. Methods: First, a Delphi survey was conducted to derive the required weights. Second, a control chart, commonly used in statistical process controls, was utilized to detect outliers and establish caution, attention, and serious levels for K-RISS values. Furthermore, Bai and Perron's method was employed to determine structural changes in K-RISS time series. Results: The study incorporated 'closeness to life' and 'sustainability' indicators into K-RISS. It obtained the necessary weights through a survey of experts for integrating variables, combining indicators by data source, and aggregating sub K-RISS values. We defined caution, attention, and serious levels for both average and maximum values of daily K-RISS. Furthermore, when structural changes were detected, leading to significant variations in daily K-RISS values according to different periods, the study systematically verified these changes and derived respective severity levels for each period. Conclusions: This study enhances the existing K-RISS system and introduces more advanced indicators. K-RISS is now more comprehensively equipped to serve as a risk warning index. The study has paved the way for an objective determination of whether the food safety risk index surpasses predefined thresholds through the application of severity levels.

The Effects of Fatigue Induced by Submaximal Treadmill Exercise on Body Sway (최대하 트레드밀 운동에 의한 피로가 신체 동요에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Mi-Sun;Yi, Chung-Hwi;Cho, Sang-Hyun;Kwon, Oh-Yun
    • Physical Therapy Korea
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.35-54
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    • 2000
  • The purposes of this study were to assess variation of body sway prior to and after submaximal treadmill exercise; to determine the time course of the effects of a fatiguing performed on a treadmill on body sway; and to compare position sense prior to and after exercise in order to assess any variance in proprioception caused by submaximal treadmill exercise. The subjects were twenty-four healthy men in their twenties. They stood barefoot on the Kinesthetic Ability Training Balance Platform to measure body sway. Control trials were performed with eyes alternately open and closed. In the eyes open condition, they were asked to look at a target placed at eye level 1 m in front them. A total of 10 trials, each lasting 20 seconds, were performed. After this series of trials, position sense was measured. Subjects then exercised on the treadmill until 85% of each person's maximal heart rate was reached. The first series of postural sway measurements began immediately after this exercise. The second identical series of postural sway trials was performed at approximately 10 minutes after exercise. The third series was performed approximately 20 minutes after exercise. This allowed approximately 5 minutes of rest between each experimental series. Position sense was measured at approximately 15 and 25 minutes after exercise. The results were as follows: 1) There was a significant increase in body sway after submaximal treadmill exercise compared to pre-exercise values under both visual conditions (p<.05). 2) After submaximal treadmill exercise, under the eyes open condition, the mean value of body sway was significantly increased after both the first and second series (p<.05). Under the eyes closed condition, the mean value of body sway increased significantly after the first series but decreased significantly after the third series (p<.05). 3) Position sense, measured repeatedly after submaximal treadmill exercise, did not change significantly with respect to pre-exercise values (p>.05). These results suggest that fatigue induced by submaximal treadmill exercise produced an increase in body sway in young healthy subjects with or without visual input, but the increase appeared to be lasting less than 15 minutes. No significant change in position sense suggested that proprioception was unaffected by submaximal treadmill exercise-induced fatigue.

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An Analysis of Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Damage Occurrence by Insect Pests and Disease (기후변화가 벼 병해충 피해면적 발생에 미치는 영향분석)

  • Jeong, Hak-Kyun;Kim, Chang-Gil;Moon, Dong-Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.52-56
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    • 2014
  • BACKGROUND: It is known that impacts of climate change on damage occurrence by insect pests and diseases are increasing. The negative effects of climate change on production will threaten our food security. It is needed that on the basis of analysis of the impacts, proper strategies in response to climate change are developed. METHODS AND RESULTS: The objective of this paper is to estimate impacts of climate change on rice damage occurrence by insect pests and diseases, using the panal model which analyzes both cross-section data and time series data. The result of an analysis on impacts of climate change on rice damage occurrence by pest insect and disease showed that the damage occurrence by Rice leaf roller and Rice water weevil increased if temperature increased, and damage occurrence by Stripe, Sheath blight, and Leaf Blast increased if precipitation(or amount of sunshine) increased(or decreased). CONCLUSION: Adaptation strategies, supplying weather forecasting information by region, developing systematical strategies for prevention of damage occurrence by pest insect and disease, analyzing the factors of damage occurrence by unexpected pest insect and disease, enforcing international cooperation for prevention of damage occurrence are needed to minimize the impacts of damage occurrence on rice production.