• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time-series Analysis

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Development the Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI) Data Processing System (GDPS) (정지궤도 해색탑재체(GOCI) 해양자료처리시스템(GDPS)의 개발)

  • Han, Hee-Jeong;Ryu, Joo-Hyung;Ahn, Yu-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.239-249
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    • 2010
  • The Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI) data-processing system (GDPS), which is a software system for satellite data processing and analysis of the first geostationary ocean color observation satellite, has been developed concurrently with the development of th satellite. The GDPS has functions to generate level 2 and 3 oceanographic analytical data, from level 1B data that comprise the total radiance information, by programming a specialized atmospheric algorithm and oceanic analytical algorithms to the software module. The GDPS will be a multiversion system not only as a standard Korea Ocean Satellite Center(KOSC) operational system, but also as a basic GOCI data-processing system for researchers and other users. Additionally, the GDPS will be used to make the GOCI images available for distribution by satellite network, to calculate the lookup table for radiometric calibration coefficients, to divide/mosaic several region images, to analyze time-series satellite data. the developed GDPS system has satisfied the user requirement to complete data production within 30 minutes. This system is expected to be able to be an excellent tool for monitoring both long-term and short-term changes of ocean environmental characteristics.

On the Diurnal Variation of Cloudiness over the Weatern Pacific by Using GMS-IR Data (GMS-IR 자료를 이용한 서태평양에서의 운량 일변동에 관한 연구)

  • 김영섭;한경수
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 1997
  • The western equatorial Pacific Ocean, where sea surface temperature is the warmest on the globe, is characterized by numerous convective systems and large annual precipitation. In this region, the cloudiness data with tops higher than 8km level obtained from the GMS-IR data are used to investigate the diurnal variation of cloudiness. The amplitude and phase of diurnal and semi-diurnal cycles are mainly investigated to examine details on the temporal and spatial structure of clouds. Cloudiness variation has typical cycles and each cycle is associated with the air-sea interactive phenomena. Spectral analysis on the cloudiness time series data indicates that 30-60 day, 17-20day, 7-8 day, diurnal and semi diurnal cycle are peaked. During Northern Winter and Southern Summer, the large cloudiness exsists over New Guinea, the adjacent seas of North Australia, and the open oceanic regions east of $160^{\circ}$E. Cloudiness diurnal variability over the lands and their adjacent seas is about 2.0 times larger than that over the open sea regions. That may be due to the difference of specific heat between the land and sea. The maximum and minimum cloudiness appeared at 18:00 and 09:00 hours over the land, and at noon and 21:00 hours over the sea, respectively. The amplitude of diurnal component over the land is 4,7 times larger than that of semi-diurnal component, and 1.5 times over the sea.

Monitoring of Shoreline Change using Satellite Imagery and Aerial Photograph : For the Jukbyeon, Uljin (위성영상 및 항공사진을 이용한 해안선 변화 모니터링 : 울진군 죽변면 연안을 대상으로)

  • Eom, Jin-Ah;Choi, Jong-Kuk;Ryu, Joo-Hyung;Won, Joong-Sun
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.571-580
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    • 2010
  • Coastal shoreline movement due to erosion and deposition is a major concern for coastal zone management. Shoreline is changed by nature factor or development of coastal. Change of shoreline is threatening marine environment and destroying. Therefore, we need monitoring of shoreline change with time series analysis for coastal zone management. In this study, we analyzed the shoreline change using airphotograph, LiDAR and satellite imagery from 1971 to 2009 in Uljin, Gyeongbuk, Korea. As a result, shoreline near of the nuclear power plant show linear pattern in 1971 and 1980, however the pattern of shoreline is changed after 2000. As a result of long-term monitoring, shoreline pattern near of the nuclear power plant is changed by erosion toward sea. The pattern of shoreline near of KORDI until 2003 is changed due to deposition toward sea, but the new pattern toward land is developed by erosion from 2003 to 2009. The shoreline is changed by many factors. However, we will guess that change of shoreline within study area is due to construction of nuclear power plant. In the future work, we need sedimentary and physical studies.

The influence of Brexit on Container Volume of Korea (브렉시트(Brexit)의 한국 컨테이너물동량에 대한 영향)

  • Choi, Bong-Ho;Lee, Gi-Whan
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.67-81
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    • 2016
  • This paper examines the influence of Brexit on container volume of Korea, especially of macroeconomic variables such as exchange rate and industrial production of EU and United Kingdom. To do this, we use monthly time series data during 2000-2016, and introduce the analysis method of cointegration test and VECM, and analyze the influence of industrial production and exchange rate of EU and U.K. on container volume of Korea. The results are as follows. First, the container volume of Korea is influenced by the exchange rate and industrial production of EU in the long run. But the exchange and industrial production of U.K. influenced on only export container volume of Korea, and the influence of U.K. macroeconomic variables on container volume of Korea was not large in the long lun. Second, In the shot run, the influence of exchange rate on container volume of Korea, especially on export container volume was significant in EU and U.K. To sum up, the influence of EU macroeconomic variables on container volume of Korea is larger than that of U.K., and the influence of exchange rate variable is more significant than that of industrial production variable.

Temporal and Spatial Variability of Nutrients Variation in Bottom Layer of Jinhae Bay (진해만과 주변해역 저층 영양염의 시·공간적 변동 특성)

  • Choi, Tae-Jun;Kwon, Jung-No;Lim, Jae-Hyun;Kim, Seul-Min
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.627-639
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    • 2014
  • In respect of the nutrients cycling in coastal environment, regeneration in bottom layer is one of major source of nutrients. We analyzed the bottom water quality at the 14 stations during 9 years from 2004 to 2012 to investigate the characteristics of nutrients at bottom layer in Jinhae Bay. Concentrations of DIN, DIP and DSi showed the large seasonal variation and were higher in summer. Especially, average concentrations of these nutrients were two times higher in hypoxic season than in normoxic season. In summer, high concentrations of DIN, DIP and DSi caused by regeneration were common feature, but spatial distribution of DSi differ from that of DIN and DIP. DIN and DIP were higher in Masan Bay, while DSi was higher in Masan Bay as well as in center of Jinhae Bay. In comparison with DIN and DIP, DSi was significantly affected by nutrients regeneration at bottom layer in whole season. According to time series analysis, DIN concentration was decreased from approximately $14{\mu}M$ to $6{\mu}M$. This result induce that Si:N ratio at bottom layer in Jinhae Bay changed from approximately 1 to 3.

Estimation Model for Freight of Container Ships using Deep Learning Method (딥러닝 기법을 활용한 컨테이너선 운임 예측 모델)

  • Kim, Donggyun;Choi, Jung-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.574-583
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    • 2021
  • Predicting shipping markets is an important issue. Such predictions form the basis for decisions on investment methods, fleet formation methods, freight rates, etc., which greatly affect the profits and survival of a company. To this end, in this study, we propose a shipping freight rate prediction model for container ships using gated recurrent units (GRUs) and long short-term memory structure. The target of our freight rate prediction is the China Container Freight Index (CCFI), and CCFI data from March 2003 to May 2020 were used for training. The CCFI after June 2020 was first predicted according to each model and then compared and analyzed with the actual CCFI. For the experimental model, a total of six models were designed according to the hyperparameter settings. Additionally, the ARIMA model was included in the experiment for performance comparison with the traditional analysis method. The optimal model was selected based on two evaluation methods. The first evaluation method selects the model with the smallest average value of the root mean square error (RMSE) obtained by repeating each model 10 times. The second method selects the model with the lowest RMSE in all experiments. The experimental results revealed not only the improved accuracy of the deep learning model compared to the traditional time series prediction model, ARIMA, but also the contribution in enhancing the risk management ability of freight fluctuations through deep learning models. On the contrary, in the event of sudden changes in freight owing to the effects of external factors such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the accuracy of the forecasting model reduced. The GRU1 model recorded the lowest RMSE (69.55, 49.35) in both evaluation methods, and it was selected as the optimal model.

A Study on Resolving Barriers to Entry into the Resell Market by Exploring and Predicting Price Increases Using the XGBoost Model (XGBoost 모형을 활용한 가격 상승 요인 탐색 및 예측을 통한 리셀 시장 진입 장벽 해소에 관한 연구)

  • Yoon, HyunSeop;Kang, Juyoung
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.155-174
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    • 2021
  • This study noted the emergence of the Resell investment within the fashion market, among emerging investment techniques. Worldwide, the market size is growing rapidly, and currently, there is a craze taking place throughout Korea. Therefore, we would like to use shoe data from StockX, the representative site of Resell, to present basic guidelines to consumers and to break down barriers to entry into the Resell market. Moreover, it showed the current status of the Resell craze, which was based on information from various media outlets, and then presented the current status and research model of the Resell market through prior research. Raw data was collected and analyzed using the XGBoost algorithm and the Prophet model. Analysis showed that the factors that affect the Resell market were identified, and the shoes suitable for the Resell market were also identified. Furthermore, historical data on shoes allowed us to predict future prices, thereby predicting future profitability. Through this study, the market will allow unfamiliar consumers to actively participate in the market with the given information. It also provides a variety of vital information regarding Resell investments, thus. forming a fundamental guideline for the market and further contributing to addressing entry barriers.

A study of applying soil moisture for improving false alarm rates in monitoring landslides (산사태 모니터링 오탐지율 개선을 위한 토양수분자료 활용에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Seungcheol;Jeong, Jaehwan;Choi, Minha;Yoon, Hongsik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.12
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    • pp.1205-1214
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    • 2021
  • Precipitation is one of a major causes of landslides by rising of pore water pressure, which leads to fluctuations of soil strength and stress. For this reason, precipitation is the most frequently used to determine the landslide thresholds. However, using only precipitation has limitations in predicting and estimating slope stability quantitatively for reducing false alarm events. On the other hand, Soil Moisture (SM) has been used for calculating slope stability in many studies since it is directly related to pore water pressure than precipitation. Therefore, this study attempted to evaluate the appropriateness of applying soil moisture in determining the landslide threshold. First, the reactivity of soil saturation level to precipitation was identified through time-series analysis. The precipitation threshold was calculated using daily precipitation (Pdaily) and the Antecedent Precipitation Index (API), and the hydrological threshold was calculated using daily precipitation and soil saturation level. Using a contingency table, these two thresholds were assessed qualitatively. In results, compared to Pdaily only threshold, Goesan showed an improvement of 75% (Pdaily + API) and 42% (Pdaily + SM) and Changsu showed an improvement of 33% (Pdaily + API) and 44% (Pdaily + SM), respectively. Both API and SM effectively enhanced the Critical Success Index (CSI) and reduced the False Alarm Rate (FAR). In the future, studies such as calculating rainfall intensity required to cause/trigger landslides through soil saturation level or estimating rainfall resistance according to the soil saturation level are expected to contribute to improving landslide prediction accuracy.

Macro Factors Affecting Corporate Venture Capital Investments: Effects of Industrial Boom, Exogenous Crisis, Economic Growth, Competition Intensity (기업벤처캐피탈 투자에 미치는 거시적 요인의 영향: 산업 호황, 외생적 위기, 경제 성장, 경쟁 강도를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Doyoon;Shin, Dongyoub
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.101-113
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    • 2021
  • This paper inquires the macro-economic factors that may affect the corporate venture capital (CVC) from an industrial organization theory perspective. Unlike existing studies focusing CVC investments related to parent corporates' strategic intention, we identified CVC firm as an independent financial investor affected by macro environment and industrial structure. Specifically, we empirically investigate whether and how industry's boom, exogenous crisis, economic growth, and competition intensity affect the CVC investment for a data set of investment in the U.S. based corporate venture capital industry, 1996-2017. The empirical data analyzed in the study contained a total of 84 U.S. based CVC firms and their 2,306 investments from 1996 until 2017. After conducting a time-series negative binomial analysis, our empirical analyses suggest that the CVC investments are affected negatively by exogenous crisis and competition intensity, and positively by industrial boom and economic growth. we found the significance and direction of our independent variables strongly supported all of our four hypotheses in a highly robust manner. The results of this study are expected to contribute the literatures of corporate venture capital and venture investment by illustrating which macro-economic and industrial structure factors affect CVC investment decision to adapt to dynamic environmental change beside strategic intention of CVC firm's parent corporates.

Leased Line Traffic Prediction Using a Recurrent Deep Neural Network Model (순환 심층 신경망 모델을 이용한 전용회선 트래픽 예측)

  • Lee, In-Gyu;Song, Mi-Hwa
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.10 no.10
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    • pp.391-398
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    • 2021
  • Since the leased line is a structure that exclusively uses two connected areas for data transmission, a stable quality level and security are ensured, and despite the rapid increase in the number of switched lines, it is a line method that is continuously used a lot in companies. However, because the cost is relatively high, one of the important roles of the network operator in the enterprise is to maintain the optimal state by properly arranging and utilizing the resources of the network leased line. In other words, in order to properly support business service requirements, it is essential to properly manage bandwidth resources of leased lines from the viewpoint of data transmission, and properly predicting and managing leased line usage becomes a key factor. Therefore, in this study, various prediction models were applied and performance was evaluated based on the actual usage rate data of leased lines used in corporate networks. In general, the performance of each prediction was measured and compared by applying the smoothing model and ARIMA model, which are widely used as statistical methods, and the representative models of deep learning based on artificial neural networks, which are being studied a lot these days. In addition, based on the experimental results, we proposed the items to be considered in order for each model to achieve good performance for prediction from the viewpoint of effective operation of leased line resources.