• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time-series Analysis

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The Selection of Measurement Indicators by Spatial Levels for Ecosystem Services Assessment - Focused on the Provisioning Service - (생태계서비스 평가를 위한 공간 수준별 측정지표 선정 - 공급서비스를 중심으로 -)

  • Jung, Pil-Mo;Kim, Jung-In;Yeo, Inae;Joo, Wooyeong;Lee, Kyungeun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.67-87
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    • 2021
  • Provisioning service, which is one of the ecosystem service functions, means goods and services such as food and fuel that people get from ecosystem. Provisioning functions are closely related to the primary industry, a sector of economy. Excessive demand and use of human society can cause trade-offs among regulation, cultural, and supporting services. Therefore, it is important to perform evaluation ecosystem services periodically and to monitor the time series fluctuations to identify the impact of provisioning services on other ecosystem services (trade-off) and to maintain sustainable provisioning service. When it comes to the precise assessment of provisioning service, it is necessary to get the statistical data and standardize indicators and methods. In this study, indicators and methods, which are applicable to the spatial level of national-local-protected areas, were derived through literature analysis and expert survey. The result of this study implies that provisioning services measurement by spatial level improve the efficiency of the establishment of environmental conservation plans by whose purpose.

A Topic Analysis of Fine Particle Matter by Using Newspaper Articles (신문기사를 이용한 미세먼지 이슈의 토픽 분석)

  • Yang, Ji-Yeon
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2022
  • This study aims to identify topics in newspaper articles related to fine particle matter and to investigate the characteristics and time series trend of each topic. Related national newspaper articles during 1990 and 2021 were collected from Bigkinds. A total of 18 topics have been discovered using LDA, and 11 clusters deduced from clustering. Hot topics include related products/residence, overseas cause(China), power plant as a domestic cause, nationwide emergency reduction measures, international cooperation, political issues, current situation & countermeasure in other countries, and consumption patterns. Cold topics include the concentration standard and indoor air quality improvement. These findings would be useful in inferring the political direction and strategies. In particular, the consumer protection policy should be expanded as the related market is growing. It will also be necessary to pursue policies that will promote public safety and health, and that will enhance public consensus and international cooperation.

Prediction of dam inflow based on LSTM-s2s model using luong attention (Attention 기법을 적용한 LSTM-s2s 모델 기반 댐유입량 예측 연구)

  • Lee, Jonghyeok;Choi, Suyeon;Kim, Yeonjoo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.7
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    • pp.495-504
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    • 2022
  • With the recent development of artificial intelligence, a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model that is efficient with time-series analysis is being used to increase the accuracy of predicting the inflow of dams. In this study, we predict the inflow of the Soyang River dam, using the LSTM model with the Sequence-to-Sequence (LSTM-s2s) and attention mechanism (LSTM-s2s with attention) that can further improve the LSTM performance. Hourly inflow, temperature, and precipitation data from 2013 to 2020 were used to train the model, and validate and test for evaluating the performance of the models. As a result, the LSTM-s2s with attention showed better performance than the LSTM-s2s in general as well as in predicting a peak value. Both models captured the inflow pattern during the peaks but detailed hourly variability is limitedly simulated. We conclude that the proposed LSTM-s2s with attention can improve inflow forecasting despite its limits in hourly prediction.

Robust estimation of sparse vector autoregressive models (희박 벡터 자기 회귀 모형의 로버스트 추정)

  • Kim, Dongyeong;Baek, Changryong
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.631-644
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    • 2022
  • This paper considers robust estimation of the sparse vector autoregressive model (sVAR) useful in high-dimensional time series analysis. First, we generalize the result of Xu et al. (2008) that the adaptive lasso indeed has robustness in sVAR as well. However, adaptive lasso method in sVAR performs poorly as the number and sizes of outliers increases. Therefore, we propose new robust estimation methods for sVAR based on least absolute deviation (LAD) and Huber estimation. Our simulation results show that our proposed methods provide more accurate estimation in turn showed better forecasting performance when outliers exist. In addition, we applied our proposed methods to power usage data and confirmed that there are unignorable outliers and robust estimation taking such outliers into account improves forecasting.

Numerical finite element study of a new perforated steel plate shear wall under cyclic loading

  • Farrokhi, Ali-Akbar;Rahimi, Sepideh;Beygi, Morteza Hosseinali;Hoseinzadeh, Mohamad
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.539-548
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    • 2022
  • Steel plate shear walls (SPSWs) are one of the most important and widely used lateral load-bearing systems. The reason for this is easier execution than reinforced concrete (RC) shear walls, faster construction time, and lower final weight of the structure. However, the main drawback of SPSWs is premature buckling in low drift ratios, which affects the energy absorption capacity and global performance of the system. To address this problem, two groups of SPSWs under cyclic loading were investigated using the finite element method (FEM). In the first group, several series of circular rings have been used and in the second group, a new type of SPSW with concentric circular rings (CCRs) has been introduced. Numerous parameters include in yield stress of steel plate wall materials, steel panel thickness, and ring width were considered in nonlinear static analysis. At first, a three-dimensional (3D) numerical model was validated using three sets of laboratory SPSWs and the difference in results between numerical models and experimental specimens was less than 5% in all cases. The results of numerical models revealed that the full SPSW undergoes shear buckling at a drift ratio of 0.2% and its hysteresis behavior has a pinching in the middle part of load-drift ratio curve. Whereas, in the two categories of proposed SPSWs, the hysteresis behavior is complete and stable, and in most cases no capacity degradation of up to 6% drift ratio has been observed. Also, in most numerical models, the tangential stiffness remains almost constant in each cycle. Finally, for the innovative SPSW, a relationship was suggested to determine the shear capacity of the proposed steel wall relative to the wall slenderness coefficient.

The Improvement of the LIDAR System of the School Zone Applying Artificial Intelligence (인공지능을 적용한 스쿨존의 LIDAR 시스템 개선 연구)

  • Park, Moon-Soo;Park, Dea-Woo
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.26 no.8
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    • pp.1248-1254
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    • 2022
  • Efforts are being made to prevent traffic accidents in the school zone in advance. However, traffic accidents in school zones continue to occur. If the driver can know the situation information in the child protection area in advance, accidents can be reduced. In this paper, we design a camera that eliminates blind spots in school zones and a number recognition camera system that can collect pre-traffic information. It is designed by improving the LIDAR system that recognizes vehicle speed and pedestrians. It collects and processes pedestrian and vehicle image information recognized by cameras and LIDAR, and applies artificial intelligence time series analysis and artificial intelligence algorithms. The artificial intelligence traffic accident prevention system learned by deep learning proposed in this paper provides a forced push service that delivers school zone information to the driver to the mobile device in the vehicle before entering the school zone. In addition, school zone traffic information is provided as an alarm on the LED signboard.

Understanding the Association Between Cryptocurrency Price Predictive Performance and Input Features (암호화폐 종가 예측 성능과 입력 변수 간의 연관성 분석)

  • Park, Jaehyun;Seo, Yeong-Seok
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.19-28
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    • 2022
  • Recently, cryptocurrency has attracted much attention, and price prediction studies of cryptocurrency have been actively conducted. Especially, efforts to improve the prediction performance by applying the deep learning model are continuing. LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) model, which shows high performance in time series data among deep learning models, is applied in various views. However, it shows low performance in cryptocurrency price data with high volatility. Although, to solve this problem, new input features were found and study was conducted using them, there is a lack of study on input features that drop predictive performance. Thus, in this paper, we collect the recent trends of six cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin and Ethereum and analyze effects of input features on the cryptocurrency price predictive performance through statistics and deep learning. The results of the experiment showed that cryptocurrency price predictive performance the best when open price, high price, low price, volume and price were combined except for rate of closing price fluctuation.

Time-series Analysis of Seawater Temperature in the Garolim Bay, the West Coast of Korea (서해 가로림만 수온의 시계열 분석)

  • Yang, Joon-Yong;Cho, Sunghee;Lee, Joon-Soo;Han, Changhoon;Heo, Seung
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.30 no.7
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    • pp.585-595
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    • 2021
  • We used seawater temperature data, measured in the Garolim Bay, to analyze temperature variation on an hourly and daily basis. Lagrange's interpolation using before and after data was applied to restore nonconsecutive missing temperature data. The estimated error of the data restoration was 0.11℃. Spectral analyses of seawater temperature showed significant periodicities of approximately 12.4 h (semidiurnal tide) and 15.0 d (long-period tide), which is close to those of M2 and Mf partial tides. Variation in seawater temperature was correlated more with tidal height than with air temperature around the Garolim Bay. In June and December, when the seawater temperature difference between the inside and outside of the Garolim Bay was very large, the periodicities of 12.4 h and 15.0 d were highly prominent. These results indicate that the exchange of seawater between the inside and outside of the Garolim Bay induced variations in seawater temperature owing to tide. Understanding temperature variation because of tide helps to prevent abnormal mortality of cultured fish and to predict seawater temperature in the Garolim Bay.

Nonlinear creep model based on shear creep test of granite

  • Hu, Bin;Wei, Er-Jian;Li, Jing;Zhu, Xin;Tian, Kun-Yun;Cui, Kai
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.527-535
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    • 2021
  • The creep characteristics of rock is of great significance for the study of long-term stability of engineering, so it is necessary to carry out indoor creep test and creep model of rock. First of all, in different water-bearing state and different positive pressure conditions, the granite is graded loaded to conduct indoor shear creep test. Through the test, the shear creep characteristics of granite are obtained. According to the test results, the stress-strain isochronous curve is obtained, and then the long-term strength of granite under different conditions is determined. Then, the fractional-order calculus software element is introduced, and it is connected in series with the spring element and the nonlinear viscoplastic body considering the creep acceleration start time to form a nonlinear viscoplastic creep model with fewer elements and fewer parameters. Finally, based on the shear creep test data of granite, using the nonlinear curve fitting of Origin software and Levenberg-Marquardt optimization algorithm, the parameter fitting and comparative analysis of the nonlinear creep model are carried out. The results show that the test data and the model curve have a high degree of fitting, which further explains the rationality and applicability of the established nonlinear visco-elastoplastic creep model. The research in this paper can provide certain reference significance and reference value for the study of nonlinear creep model of rock in the future.

Tryptophan-derived Alkaloids from Hedera rhombea Fruits and Their Butyrylcholinesterase Inhibitory Activity

  • Ha, Manh Tuan;Park, Se Eun;Kim, Jeong Ah;Woo, Mi Hee;Choi, Jae Sue;Min, Byung Sun
    • Natural Product Sciences
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.138-142
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    • 2022
  • Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common age-related neurodegenerative disease in industrialized countries. It is estimated that about 47 million people living with dementia and the number of cases will be tripled by 2050. However, the exact mechanism of AD is not known, and full therapy has still not been found. Various tryptophan-derived alkaloids have been reported as promising agents for the treatment of AD. In the present study, a series of tryptophan-derived alkaloids were isolated and characterized from the methanol extract of Hedera rhombea fruit. Based on the analysis of their observed and reported spectroscopic data, their structures were identified as N-[4'-hydroxy-(E)-cinnamoyl]-L-tryptophan (1), N-[3',4'-dihydroxy-(E)-cinnamoyl]-L-tryptophan (2), N-[4'-hydroxy-(E)-cinnamoyl]-L-tryptophan methyl ester (3), and N-[3',4'-dihydroxy-(E)-cinnamoyl]-L-tryptophan methyl ester (4). These compounds were screened for anti-Alzheimer activity via their inhibition of acetylcholinesterase (AChE) and butyrylcholinesterase (BChE) enzymes in vitro. As a result, compounds 3 and 4 showed moderate BChE inhibition with IC50 values of 86.9 and 78.4 μM, respectively, compared to those of the positive control [berberine (IC50 = 11.5 μM)]. However, all four compounds did not show significant inhibition of the AChE enzyme. This is the first time, the AChE and BChE inhibitory activities of these tryptophan-derived alkaloids were investigated and reported.