• 제목/요약/키워드: Time-Varying Dynamic Factor Model

검색결과 8건 처리시간 0.218초

소비에 대한 요인별 세계화의 영향 분석 (The Influences of the Globalization Factors on Consumption)

  • 윤재형
    • 아태비즈니스연구
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    • 제10권4호
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    • pp.119-135
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    • 2019
  • This study analyzes the effects of trade globalization and financial globalization on consumption classified by type(durable, quasi-durable, non-durable and service). On the other hand, trade globalization and financial globalization were decomposed into OECD common factor, regional factors, and the idiosyncratic country-specific factors by time-varying dynamic factor analysis. The characteristics of OECD common factor, regional factors, and the idiosyncratic country-specific factors of trade and financial globalization were analyzed. Furthermore, the influences of these factors on consumption by type were analyzed. The analysis shows that globalization has negative effects on consumption. In particular, we found out that the idiosyncratic country-specific factor of Korea in trade and financial globalization had a statistically significant negative effect on consumption. We can infer that the globalization affecting consumption can be attributed to the idiosyncratic country-specific factor, which is economic choice rather than uncontrollable global trend. Accordingly, to solve the sluggish consumption problem caused by globalization, it is necessary to require not only domestic consumption expansion policies but also the efforts to resolve economic polarization problems to be able to stimulate consumption.

The Determinants and their Time-Varying Spillovers on Liquefied Natural Gas Import Prices in China Based on TVP-FAVAR Model

  • Ying Huang;Yusheng Jiao
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • 제20권1호
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    • pp.93-104
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    • 2024
  • China is playing more predominant role in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market worldwide and LNG import price is subject to various factors both at home and abroad. Nevertheless, previous studies rarely heed a multiple of factors. A time-varying parameter factor augmented vector auto-regression (TVP-FAVAR) model is adopted to discover the determinants of China's LNG import price and their dynamic impacts from January 2012 to December 2021. According to the findings, market fundamentals have a greater impact on the import price of natural gas in China than overall economic demand, financial considerations, and world oil prices. The primary determinants include domestic gas consumption, consumer confidence and other demand-side information. Then, there are diverse and time-varying spillover effects of the four common determinants on the volatility of China's LNG import price at different intervals and time nodes. The price volatility is more sensitive and long-lasting to domestic natural gas pricing reform than other negative shocks such as the Sino-US trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic. The results in this study further proves the importance of domestic natural gas market liberalization. China ought to do more to support the further marketization of natural gas prices while working harder to guarantee natural gas supplies.

임펄스 전류에 대한 ZnO 바리스터의 Pspice 모델 (Pspice Model of a ZnO Varistor for Impulse Current)

  • 이복희;공영훈;이동문
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 1999년도 하계학술대회 논문집 E
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    • pp.2161-2163
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    • 1999
  • Generally, ZnO varistors have dynamic characteristics that the cut-off voltage increases as the time to crest of the varistor current decreases. Dynamic characteristics of ZnO varistor are the most important factor in region of the steep front discharge current particularly. Also, V-I characteristics of ZnO varistor have hysterisis loop in time domain and frequency dependency. This paper deals with ZnO varistor numerical equation and modeling method which takes the behavior of varying clamping voltage into consideration during the time to crest, in range of $1{\mu}m{\sim}50{\mu}m$, of impulse current applied to a ZnO varistor. The simulated results by the proposed model are compared with experimental results for each of the impulse current.

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주가와 환율의 위험-수익 관계에 대한 연구 (Relation between Risk and Return in the Korean Stock Market and Foreign Exchange Market)

  • 박재곤;이필상
    • 재무관리연구
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    • 제26권3호
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    • pp.199-226
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    • 2009
  • 본 논문은 우리나라 주식시장과 외환시장의 기대 수익률과 조건부 변동성간의 시계열적 관계를 2요인 자본자산가격결정모형(two-factor ICAPM)을 이용하여 실증 분석하였다. 주가와 환율의 조건부 분산은 GARCH 모형과 비대칭성을 반영한 GJR(1993) 모형으로 추정하였으며, 주가와 환율과의 조건부 공분산은 Bollerslev(1990)의 일정 상관관계(CCC) 모형과 Engle(2002)의 동태적 조건부상관관계(DCC) 모형을 이용하여 추정하였다. 실증 분석모형은 MGARCH-M 모형을 사용하였으며, 추정방법은 준최우추정법(QMLE)을 사용하였다. 실증 분석결과 외환위기 이후에 주식시장의 기대 수익률은 주가의 분산에 대해, 그리고 환율과의 공분산에 대해 유의한 음(-)의 관계를 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 외환시장에서 기대 수익률은 조건부 분산과 조건부 공분산에 대해 유의하지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 조건부 분산의 추정에서는 GJR 모형이 GARCH 모형에 비해 더 적합한 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 DCC 모형이 CCC 모형에 비해 설명력이 더 높은 것으로 나타났다. 본 논문의 분석결과는 주식시장에서 환율 변동이 위험 요인으로 작용하고 있기 때문에 포트폴리오 구성이나 위험 관리 등에서 환율 변동을 고려할 필요가 있고, 변수들간의 상관관계는 시변하는 모형을 사용할 필요가 있음을 시사한다.

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Transient response of rhombic laminates

  • Anish, Anish;Chaubey, Abhay K.;Vishwakarma, Satyam;Kumar, Ajay;Fic, Stanislaw;Barnat-Hunek, Danuta
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제70권5호
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    • pp.551-562
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    • 2019
  • In the present study, a suitable mathematical model considering parabolic transverse shear strains for dynamic analysis of laminated composite skew plates under different types of impulse and spatial loads was presented for the first time. The proposed mathematical model satisfies zero transverse shear strain at the top and bottom of the plate. On the basis of the cubic variation of thickness coordinate in in-plane displacement fields of the present mathematical model, a 2D finite element (FE) model was developed including skew transformations in the mathematical model. No shear correction factor is required in the present formulation and damping effect was also incorporated. This is the first FE implementation considering a cubic variation of thickness coordinate in in-plane displacement fields including skew transformations to solve the forced vibration problem of composite skew plates. The effect of transverse shear and rotary inertia was incorporated in the present model. The Newmark-${\beta}$ scheme was adapted to perform time integration from step to step. The $C^0$ FE formulation was implemented to overcome the problem of $C^1$ continuity associated with the cubic variation of thickness coordinate in in-plane displacement fields. The numerical studies showed that the present 2D FE model predicts the result close to the analytical results. Many new results varying different parameter such as skew angles, boundary conditions, etc. were presented.

A frequency tracking semi-active algorithm for control of edgewise vibrations in wind turbine blades

  • Arrigan, John;Huang, Chaojun;Staino, Andrea;Basu, Biswajit;Nagarajaiah, Satish
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • 제13권2호
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    • pp.177-201
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    • 2014
  • With the increased size and flexibility of the tower and blades, structural vibrations are becoming a limiting factor towards the design of even larger and more powerful wind turbines. Research into the use of vibration mitigation devices in the turbine tower has been carried out but the use of dampers in the blades has yet to be investigated in detail. Mitigating vibrations will increase the design life and hence economic viability of the turbine blades and allow for continual operation with decreased downtime. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effectiveness of Semi-Active Tuned Mass Dampers (STMDs) in reducing the edgewise vibrations in the turbine blades. A frequency tracking algorithm based on the Short Time Fourier Transform (STFT) technique is used to tune the damper. A theoretical model has been developed to capture the dynamic behaviour of the blades including the coupling with the tower to accurately model the dynamics of the entire turbine structure. The resulting model consists of time dependent equations of motion and negative damping terms due to the coupling present in the system. The performances of the STMDs based vibration controller have been tested under different loading and operating conditions. Numerical analysis has shown that variation in certain parameters of the system, along with the time varying nature of the system matrices has led to the need for STMDs to allow for real-time tuning to the resonant frequencies of the system.

기술혁신이 생산성과 경제성장에 미치는 영향 (The Contribution of Innovation on Productivity and Growth in Korea)

  • 김병우
    • 기술혁신학회지
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    • 제11권1호
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    • pp.72-90
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    • 2008
  • 기술혁신이 경제성장에 미치는 영향은 어떠한가? 이는 전통적으로 지식스톡을 반영하는 성장회계법에 의해 분석되었다. R&D에 대한 수익률 추정은 특허와 같은 R&D 산출이 지식축적에서 기인하는 것으로 파악한다. Griliches(1973)는 이를 위해 회귀분석 방법을 사용하였다. 본 연구에서는 기존 성장회계법에서의 추정방법과 달리 R&D 효율성을 나타내는 파라미터가 시간이 지남에 따라 변동(time-varying)하는 것을 허용하는 상태공간 모형(state-space model)을 통해 한국경제의 R&D 효율성(fertility)을 추정하였다. R&D 스톡의 생산성에 대한 탄력성은 $0.120{\sim}0.135$ 정도로 추정되었다.

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유빙 및 평탄빙의 충돌에 의한 빙하중과 선체구조응답 해석기법 (Analysis Method of Ice Load and Ship Structural Response due to Collision of Ice Bergy Bit and Level Ice)

  • 노인식;이재만;오영택;김성찬
    • 대한조선학회논문집
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    • 제53권2호
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    • pp.85-91
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    • 2016
  • The most important factor in the structural design of ships and offshore structures operating in arctic region is ice load, which results from ice-structure interaction during the ice collision process. The mechanical properties of ice related to strength and failure, however, show very complicated aspect varying with temperature, volume fraction of brine, grain size, strain rate and etc. So it is nearly impossible to establish a perfect material model of ice satisfying all the mechanical characteristics completely. Therefore, in general, ice collision analysis was carried out by relatively simple material models considering only specific aspects of mechanical characteristics of ice and it would be the most significant cause of inevitable errors in the analysis. Especially, it is well-known that the most distinctive mechanical property of ice is high dependency on strain rate. Ice shows brittle attribute in higher strain rate while it becomes ductile in lower strain rate range. In this study, the simulation method of ice collision to ship hull using the nonlinear dynamic FE analysis was dealt with. To consider the strain rate effects of ice during ice-structural interaction, strain rate dependent constitutive model in which yield stress and hardening behaviors vary with strain rate was adopted. To reduce the huge amount of computing time, the modeling range of ice and ship structure were restricted to the confined region of interest. Under the various scenario of ice-ship hull collision, the structural behavior of hull panels and failure modes of ice were examined by nonlinear FE analysis technique.