• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time-Varying Dynamic Factor Model

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The Influences of the Globalization Factors on Consumption (소비에 대한 요인별 세계화의 영향 분석)

  • Yoon, Jai-Hyung
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.119-135
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    • 2019
  • This study analyzes the effects of trade globalization and financial globalization on consumption classified by type(durable, quasi-durable, non-durable and service). On the other hand, trade globalization and financial globalization were decomposed into OECD common factor, regional factors, and the idiosyncratic country-specific factors by time-varying dynamic factor analysis. The characteristics of OECD common factor, regional factors, and the idiosyncratic country-specific factors of trade and financial globalization were analyzed. Furthermore, the influences of these factors on consumption by type were analyzed. The analysis shows that globalization has negative effects on consumption. In particular, we found out that the idiosyncratic country-specific factor of Korea in trade and financial globalization had a statistically significant negative effect on consumption. We can infer that the globalization affecting consumption can be attributed to the idiosyncratic country-specific factor, which is economic choice rather than uncontrollable global trend. Accordingly, to solve the sluggish consumption problem caused by globalization, it is necessary to require not only domestic consumption expansion policies but also the efforts to resolve economic polarization problems to be able to stimulate consumption.

The Determinants and their Time-Varying Spillovers on Liquefied Natural Gas Import Prices in China Based on TVP-FAVAR Model

  • Ying Huang;Yusheng Jiao
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.93-104
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    • 2024
  • China is playing more predominant role in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market worldwide and LNG import price is subject to various factors both at home and abroad. Nevertheless, previous studies rarely heed a multiple of factors. A time-varying parameter factor augmented vector auto-regression (TVP-FAVAR) model is adopted to discover the determinants of China's LNG import price and their dynamic impacts from January 2012 to December 2021. According to the findings, market fundamentals have a greater impact on the import price of natural gas in China than overall economic demand, financial considerations, and world oil prices. The primary determinants include domestic gas consumption, consumer confidence and other demand-side information. Then, there are diverse and time-varying spillover effects of the four common determinants on the volatility of China's LNG import price at different intervals and time nodes. The price volatility is more sensitive and long-lasting to domestic natural gas pricing reform than other negative shocks such as the Sino-US trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic. The results in this study further proves the importance of domestic natural gas market liberalization. China ought to do more to support the further marketization of natural gas prices while working harder to guarantee natural gas supplies.

Pspice Model of a ZnO Varistor for Impulse Current (임펄스 전류에 대한 ZnO 바리스터의 Pspice 모델)

  • Lee, B.H.;Kong, Y.H.;Lee, D.M.
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1999.07e
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    • pp.2161-2163
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    • 1999
  • Generally, ZnO varistors have dynamic characteristics that the cut-off voltage increases as the time to crest of the varistor current decreases. Dynamic characteristics of ZnO varistor are the most important factor in region of the steep front discharge current particularly. Also, V-I characteristics of ZnO varistor have hysterisis loop in time domain and frequency dependency. This paper deals with ZnO varistor numerical equation and modeling method which takes the behavior of varying clamping voltage into consideration during the time to crest, in range of $1{\mu}m{\sim}50{\mu}m$, of impulse current applied to a ZnO varistor. The simulated results by the proposed model are compared with experimental results for each of the impulse current.

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Relation between Risk and Return in the Korean Stock Market and Foreign Exchange Market (주가와 환율의 위험-수익 관계에 대한 연구)

  • Park, Jae-Gon;Lee, Phil-Sang
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.199-226
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    • 2009
  • We examine the intertemporal relation between risk and return in the Korean stock market and foreign exchange market based on the two factor ICAPM framework. The standard GARCH model and the GJR(1993) model are employed to estimate conditional variances of the stock returns and foreign exchange rates. The covariance between the rates of stock returns and changes in the exchange rates are estimated by the constant conditional correlation model of Bollerslev(1990) and the dynamic conditional correlation model of Engle(2002). The multivariate GARCH in mean model and quasi-maximum likelihood estimation method, consequently, are applied to investigate riskreturn relation jointly. We find that the estimated coefficient of relative risk aversion is negative and statistically significant in the post-financial crisis sample period in the Korean stock market. We also show that the expected stock returns are negatively related to the dynamic covariance with foreign exchange rates. Both estimated parameters of conditional variance and covariance in the foreign exchange market, however, are not statistically significant. The GJR model is better than the standard GARCH model to estimate the conditional variances. In addition, the dynamic conditional correlation model has higher explanatory power than the constant correlation model. The empirical results of this study suggest following two points to investors and risk managers in hedging and diversifying strategies for their portfolios in the Korean stock market: first, the variability of foreign exchange rates should be considered, and second, time-varying correlation between stock returns and changes in foreign exchange rates supposed to be considered.

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Transient response of rhombic laminates

  • Anish, Anish;Chaubey, Abhay K.;Vishwakarma, Satyam;Kumar, Ajay;Fic, Stanislaw;Barnat-Hunek, Danuta
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.70 no.5
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    • pp.551-562
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    • 2019
  • In the present study, a suitable mathematical model considering parabolic transverse shear strains for dynamic analysis of laminated composite skew plates under different types of impulse and spatial loads was presented for the first time. The proposed mathematical model satisfies zero transverse shear strain at the top and bottom of the plate. On the basis of the cubic variation of thickness coordinate in in-plane displacement fields of the present mathematical model, a 2D finite element (FE) model was developed including skew transformations in the mathematical model. No shear correction factor is required in the present formulation and damping effect was also incorporated. This is the first FE implementation considering a cubic variation of thickness coordinate in in-plane displacement fields including skew transformations to solve the forced vibration problem of composite skew plates. The effect of transverse shear and rotary inertia was incorporated in the present model. The Newmark-${\beta}$ scheme was adapted to perform time integration from step to step. The $C^0$ FE formulation was implemented to overcome the problem of $C^1$ continuity associated with the cubic variation of thickness coordinate in in-plane displacement fields. The numerical studies showed that the present 2D FE model predicts the result close to the analytical results. Many new results varying different parameter such as skew angles, boundary conditions, etc. were presented.

A frequency tracking semi-active algorithm for control of edgewise vibrations in wind turbine blades

  • Arrigan, John;Huang, Chaojun;Staino, Andrea;Basu, Biswajit;Nagarajaiah, Satish
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.177-201
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    • 2014
  • With the increased size and flexibility of the tower and blades, structural vibrations are becoming a limiting factor towards the design of even larger and more powerful wind turbines. Research into the use of vibration mitigation devices in the turbine tower has been carried out but the use of dampers in the blades has yet to be investigated in detail. Mitigating vibrations will increase the design life and hence economic viability of the turbine blades and allow for continual operation with decreased downtime. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effectiveness of Semi-Active Tuned Mass Dampers (STMDs) in reducing the edgewise vibrations in the turbine blades. A frequency tracking algorithm based on the Short Time Fourier Transform (STFT) technique is used to tune the damper. A theoretical model has been developed to capture the dynamic behaviour of the blades including the coupling with the tower to accurately model the dynamics of the entire turbine structure. The resulting model consists of time dependent equations of motion and negative damping terms due to the coupling present in the system. The performances of the STMDs based vibration controller have been tested under different loading and operating conditions. Numerical analysis has shown that variation in certain parameters of the system, along with the time varying nature of the system matrices has led to the need for STMDs to allow for real-time tuning to the resonant frequencies of the system.

The Contribution of Innovation on Productivity and Growth in Korea (기술혁신이 생산성과 경제성장에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Byung-Woo
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.72-90
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    • 2008
  • What has been the contribution of industrial innovation to economic growth? Typically, the issue has been approached with growth-accounting methods augmented to include a "stock of knowledge". An independent estimate of the rate of return to R&D is found in order to impute patents granted to the accumulation of knowledge. Griliches(1973) then uses a regression approach to assess the effect of an R&D variable on the computed TFP growth rate. The regression coefficient on the R&D variable would provide an estimate of the social rate of return to R&D. The related studies tend to show high social rates of return to R&D, typically in a range of 20 to 40 % per year. We need to provide multiple equation dynamic system for productivity and innovation in Korean economy in state space form. A wide range of time series models, including the classical linear regression model, can be written and estimated as special cases of a state space specification. State space models have been applied in the econometrics literature to model unobserved variables like productivity. Estimation produces the following results. Considering the goodness of fit, we can see that the evidence is strongly in favor of the range $0.120{\sim}0.135$ for the elasticity of TFP to R&D stock in the period between 1970's and the early 2000's.

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Analysis Method of Ice Load and Ship Structural Response due to Collision of Ice Bergy Bit and Level Ice (유빙 및 평탄빙의 충돌에 의한 빙하중과 선체구조응답 해석기법)

  • Nho, In Sik;Lee, Jae-Man;Oh, Young-Taek;Kim, Sung-Chan
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.53 no.2
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    • pp.85-91
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    • 2016
  • The most important factor in the structural design of ships and offshore structures operating in arctic region is ice load, which results from ice-structure interaction during the ice collision process. The mechanical properties of ice related to strength and failure, however, show very complicated aspect varying with temperature, volume fraction of brine, grain size, strain rate and etc. So it is nearly impossible to establish a perfect material model of ice satisfying all the mechanical characteristics completely. Therefore, in general, ice collision analysis was carried out by relatively simple material models considering only specific aspects of mechanical characteristics of ice and it would be the most significant cause of inevitable errors in the analysis. Especially, it is well-known that the most distinctive mechanical property of ice is high dependency on strain rate. Ice shows brittle attribute in higher strain rate while it becomes ductile in lower strain rate range. In this study, the simulation method of ice collision to ship hull using the nonlinear dynamic FE analysis was dealt with. To consider the strain rate effects of ice during ice-structural interaction, strain rate dependent constitutive model in which yield stress and hardening behaviors vary with strain rate was adopted. To reduce the huge amount of computing time, the modeling range of ice and ship structure were restricted to the confined region of interest. Under the various scenario of ice-ship hull collision, the structural behavior of hull panels and failure modes of ice were examined by nonlinear FE analysis technique.