• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.105-138
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• 2009

Although the decline in fertility rate is generally observed along the history of economic development throughout the world, the continuing decline hitting below the replacement level in Korea over the recent years gathered serious social concerns on the ground that it accelerates the process of population aging. The total fertility rate in Koreareached 2.08 in 1983, and gradually fell to the levels of 1.08 in 2005 and 1.26 in 2007. The policy debate over the role of the government has been focused mainly on the level of theoretical discussion without substantial basis on firm empirical evidence and the determinants of fertility. The objective of the paper is to empirically investigate the fertility effect of the female wage, which is understood as one of the most important determinants of fertility in Koreasince 1980 focusing on one aspect of fertility, namely birth spacing. Using the Korean National Fertility Survey conducted in 2006, I estimate a duration model of first and second births taking into account individual heterogeneity, which turned out to be an important factor to control for. Compared with previous studies in the literature on the Korean fertility, the study has an advantage of using the complete pregnancy history of women in a more representative sample. Unlike the previous studies, the analysis also deals with the endogeneity of marriage by treating a certain age, rather than age at marriage, as the time in which a woman becomes exposed to the risk of pregnancy. The study shares the common problem in the literature on birth spacing of lacking relevant wage information for respondents in a retrospective survey. I estimate the wage series as a function of the basic characteristics using the annual Wage Structure Survey from 1980 to 2005, which is considered as a nationally representative sample for wage information of employees. The results suggest that the increase in female wage by 10 percent leads to a decrease in second birth hazard by 0.56~0.92 percentage points and that the increase in spouse's wage by the equal amount is accompanied by the increase in second birth hazard by 0.36~1.13 percentage points. These estimates are more precisely estimated and of smaller magnitude than those presented by the previous studies. The results are robust to the different specifications of the wage equation. The simulation analysis based on the predicted values shows that about 17% of the change in the second birth hazard over the period 1980 to 2005 was due to the change in the female wage. Although there is some limitation in data, the results can be viewed as one estimate of the role of female wage on the recent fertility decline in Korea. The question raised by the paper is not a normative one of whether a government should promote childbearing but a positive one thatexplains fertility decline. Therefore, if there is a wide consensus on promoting childbearing, the finding suggests that the policies designed to reduce the opportunity cost of women in the labor market would be effective. The recent movement of implementing a wide range of family-friendly policies including child care support, maternity leave, parental leave and tax benefit in developed countries should be understood in this context.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.30 no.6
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• pp.306-318
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• 2018

In order to evaluate the seismic capacity of massive vertical type breakwaters which have intensively been deployed along the coast of South Korea over the last two decades, we carry out the preliminary numerical simulation against the PoHang, GyeongJu, Hachinohe 1, Hachinohe 2, Ofunato, and artificial seismic waves based on the measured time series of ground acceleration. Numerical result shows that significant sliding can be resulted in once non-negligible portion of seismic energy is shifted toward the longer period during its propagation process toward the ground surface in a form of shear wave. It is well known that during these propagation process, shear waves due to the seismic activity would be amplified, and non-negligible portion of seismic energy be shifted toward the longer period. Among these, the shift of seismic energy toward the longer period is induced by the viscosity and internal friction intrinsic in the soil. On the other hand, the amplification of shear waves can be attributed to the fact that the shear modulus is getting smaller toward the ground surface following the descending effective stress toward the ground surface. And the weakened intensity of soil as the number of attacking shear waves are accumulated can also contribute these phenomenon (Das, 1993). In this rationale, we constitute the numerical model using the model by Hardin and Drnevich (1972) for the weakened shear modulus as shear waves go on, and shear wave equation, in the numerical integration of which $Newmark-{\beta}$ method and Modified Newton-Raphson method are evoked to take nonlinear stress-strain relationship into account. It is shown that the numerical model proposed in this study could duplicate the well known features of seismic shear waves such as that a great deal of probability mass is shifted toward the larger amplitude and longer period when shear waves propagate toward the ground surface.

• Journal of Popular Narrative
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.39-85
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• 2020

This paper examines the aspects of disaster narrative, which makes the most of the concept of 'masterplot' as a narrative simulation to solve problems. By analyzing and comparing the remnants of 'masterplots' operating in the disaster narratives of Korea, the United States, and Japan, the differences between each country and social community problem recognition and resolution will be discussed. Disaster narrative is the most suitable genre for applying the 'masterplot' toward community problem solving in today's global risk society, and the problem-solving method has cognitive differences for each community. First, in the case of American disaster narratives, civilian experts' response to natural disasters tracks the changes of heroes in today's 'Marvel Comic Universe' (MCU). Compared to the past, the close relationship between heroism and nationalism has been reduced, but the state remains functional even if it is bolstered by the heroes' voluntary cooperation and reflection ability. On the other hand, in Korea's disaster narratives, the disappearance of the country and paralysis of the function are foregrounded. In order to fill the void, a new family narrative occurs, consisting of a righteous army or people abandoned by the state. Korea's disaster narratives are sensitive to changes after the disaster, and the nation's recovery never returns to normal after the disaster. Finally, Japan's disaster narratives are defensive and neurotic. A fully state-led bureaucratic system depicts an obsessive nationalism that seeks to control all disasters, or even counteracts anti-heroic individuals who reject voluntary sacrifices and even abandon disaster conditions This paper was able to diagnose the impact and value of a 'masterplot' today by comparing a series of 'masterplots' and their variations and uses. In a time when the understanding and utilization of 'masterplots' are becoming more and more important in today's world where Over-the top(OTT) services are being provided worldwide, this paper attempt could be a fragmentary model for the distribution and sharing of global stories.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.12
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• pp.999-1009
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• 2022

The Chuncheon Mullori area is an underprivileged area for water welfare that does not have a local water supply system. Here, water is supplied to the village by using a small-scale water supply facility that uses underground water and underground water as the source. To solve the problem of water shortage during drought and to prepare for the increasing water demand, a sand dam was installed near the valley river, and this facility has been operating since May 2022. In this study, in order to evaluate the reliability of water supply when a sand dam is assumed during a drought in the past, groundwater runoff simulation results using MODFLOW were used to generate inflow data from 2011 to 2020, an unmeasured period. After performing SWAT-K basin hydrologic modeling for the watershed upstream of the existing water intake source and the sand dam, the groundwater runoff was calculated, and the relative ratio of the monthly groundwater runoff for the previous 10 years to the monthly groundwater runoff in 2021 was obtained. By applying this ratio to the 2021 inflow time series data, historical inflow data from 2011 to 2020 were generated. As a result of analyzing the availability of water supply during extreme drought in the past for three cases of demand 20 m³/day, 50 m³/day, and 100 m³/day, it can be confirmed that the reliability of water supply increases with the installation of sand dams. In the case of 100 m³/day, it was analyzed that the reliability exceeded 90% only when the existing water intake source and the sand dam were operated in conjunction. All three operating conditions were evaluated to satisfy 50 m³/day or more of demand based on 95% reliability of water supply and 30 m³/day or more of demand based on 99% of reliability.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.56 no.4
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• pp.435-445
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• 2023

A delta is a depositional landform that is formed when sediment transported by a river is deposited in a relatively low-energy environment, such as a lake, sea, or a main channel. Among these, a delta formed at the confluence of rivers has a great importance in river management and research because it has a significant impact on the hydraulic and sedimentological characteristics of the river. Recently, the equilibrium state of the confluence area has been disrupted by large-scale dredging and construction of levees in the Nakdong River. However, due to the natural recovery of the river, the confluence area is returning to its pre-dredging natural state through ongoing sedimentation. The time-series data show that the confluence delta has been steadily growing since the dredging, but once it reaches a certain size, it repeats growth and retreat, and the overall size does not change significantly. In this study, we developed a model to explain the sedimentation-erosion processes in the confluence area based on the assumption that the confluence delta reaches a dynamic equilibrium. The model is based on two fundamental principles: sedimentation due to supply from the tributary and erosion due to the main channel. The erosion coefficient that represents the Nakdong River confluence areas, was obtained using data from the tributaries of the Nakdong River. Sensitivity analyses were conducted using the developed model to understand how the confluence delta responds to changes in the sediment and water discharges of the tributary and the main channel, respectively. We then used annual average discharge of the Nakdong River's tributaries to predict the dynamic equilibrium positions of the confluence deltas. Finally, we conducted a simulation experiment on the development of the Gamcheon-Nakdong River delta using recorded daily discharge. The results showed that even though it is a simple model, it accurately predicted the dynamic equilibrium positions of the confluence deltas in the Nakdong River, including the areas where the delta had not formed, and those where the delta had already formed and predicted the trend of the response of the Gamcheon-Nakdong River delta. However, the actual retreat in the Gamcheon-Nakdong River delta was not captured fully due to errors and limitations in the simplification process. The insights through this study provide basic information on the sediment supply of the Nakdong River through the confluence areas, which can be implemented as a basic model for river maintenance and management.