• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time Series Data Analysis

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Analysis of Infrared Characteristics According to Common Depth Using RP Images Converted into Numerical Data (수치 데이터로 변환된 RP 이미지를 활용하여 공동 깊이에 따른 적외선 특성 분석)

  • Jang, Byeong-Su;Kim, YoungSeok;Kim, Sewon;Choi, Hyun-Jun;Yoon, Hyung-Koo
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.77-84
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    • 2024
  • Aging and damaged underground utilities cause cavity and ground subsidence under roads, which can cause economic losses and risk user safety. This study used infrared cameras to assess the thermal characteristics of such cavities and evaluate their reliability using a CNN algorithm. PVC pipes were embedded at various depths in a test site measuring 400 cm × 50 cm × 40 cm. Concrete blocks were used to simulate road surfaces, and measurements were taken from 4 PM to noon the following day. The initial temperatures measured by the infrared camera were 43.7℃, 43.8℃, and 41.9℃, reflecting atmospheric temperature changes during the measurement period. The RP algorithm generates images in four resolutions, i.e., 10,000 × 10,000, 2,000 × 2,000, 1,000 × 1,000, and 100 × 100 pixels. The accuracy of the CNN model using RP images as input was 99%, 97%, 98%, and 96%, respectively. These results represent a considerable improvement over the 73% accuracy obtained using time-series images, with an improvement greater than 20% when using the RP algorithm-based inputs.

Quantifying forest resource change on the Korean Peninsula using satellite imagery and forest growth models (위성영상과 산림생장모형을 활용한 한반도 산림자원 변화 정량화)

  • Moonil Kim;Taejin Park
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.193-206
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    • 2024
  • This study aimed to quantify changes in forest cover and carbon storage of Korean Peninsular during the last two decades by integrating field measurement, satellite remote sensing, and modeling approaches. Our analysis based on 30-m Landsat data revealed that the forested area in Korean Peninsular had diminished significantly by 478,334 ha during the period of 2000-2019, with South Korea and North Korea contributing 51.3% (245,725 ha) and 48.6% (232,610 ha) of the total change, respectively. This comparable pattern of forest loss in both South Korea and North Korea was likely due to reduced forest deforestation and degradation in North Korea and active forest management activity in South Korea. Time series of above ground biomass (AGB) in the Korean Peninsula showed that South and North Korean forests increased their total AGB by 146.4Tg C (AGB at 2020=357.9Tg C) and 140.3Tg C (AGB at 2020=417.4Tg C), respectively, during the last two decades. This could be translated into net AGB increases in South and North Korean forests from 34.8 and 29.4 Mg C ha-1 C to 58.9(+24.1) and 44.2(+14.8) Mg C ha-1, respectively. It indicates that South Korean forests are more productive during the study period. Thus, they have sequestered more carbon. Our approaches and results can provide useful information for quantifying national scale forest cover and carbon dynamics. Our results can be utilized for supporting forest restoration planning in North Korea

Acoustic-based estimation of fish stocks in Widas Reservoir, East Java, Indonesia

  • Siti Nurul Aida;Agus Djoko Utomo;Safran Makmur;Tuah Nanda M. Wulandari;Khoirul Fatah;Yosmaniar;Indra Suharman;Ulung Jantama Wisha
    • Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.240-255
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    • 2024
  • Widas Reservoir is situated in an area of 570 ha in the Pajaran Village, Madiun Regency, East Java Province, Indonesia, playing an essential role in fisheries, with the average fish catch per year of about 283 tons/year. This study explores the standing stock, growth parameters, mortality, and exploitation rates of several dominant fishes in Widas Reservoir. This study was carried out from February to November 2019. Fish stocks were estimated using acoustic tools, fish catch records, and sizes collected by local enumerators. Fish length frequency sampling was conducted on several dominant fish species, such as Oreochromis niloticus, Barbonymus gonionotus, and Osteochilus vittatus. Based on the length-frequency data, estimating fish population dynamics, the fish population dynamics (infinitive length (L) and growth coefficient (K)) estimation was run in a time series using the Fish Sock Analysis Tool, II (FISAT II) program package. Moreover, the estimation of natural mortality parameters, the fishing mortality parameter, and the exploitation rate was also performed. The approximated overall fish stock in the Widas Reservoir was about 79,848 kg, which lowered with the increase in water depth. Of particular concern, in the surface layer at a depth between 1-5 m, the fish stock reached 58,813 kg, while in the deeper zone (> 15 m), the value significantly lowered by about 98%, reaching 1,219 kg. These results indicate an overfishing in the Widas Reservoir. The value of the exploitation rate (E) of B. gonionotus was 0.748, O. niloticus 0.8, and O. vittatus 0.7, respectively, proving the overfishing states occurred in the study area. Therefore, regulations governing the number of catches and the use of fishing gear are crucial in Widas Reservoir, particularly the use of lift and gill nets with a mesh size of less than 2 cm.

Preparation of Pure CO2 Standard Gas from Calcium Carbonate for Stable Isotope Analysis (탄산칼슘을 이용한 이산화탄소 안정동위원소 표준시료 제작에 대한 연구)

  • Park, Mi-Kyung;Park, Sunyoung;Kang, Dong-Jin;Li, Shanlan;Kim, Jae-Yeon;Jo, Chun Ok;Kim, Jooil;Kim, Kyung-Ryul
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.40-46
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    • 2013
  • The isotope ratios of $^{13}C/^{12}C$ and $^{18}O/^{16}O$ for a sample in a mass spectrometer are measured relative to those of a pure $CO_2$ reference gas (i.e., laboratory working standard). Thus, the calibration of a laboratory working standard gas to the international isotope scales (Pee Dee Belemnite (PDB) for ${\delta}^{13}C$ and Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water (V-SMOW) for ${\delta}^{18}O$) is essential for comparisons between data sets obtained by other groups on other mass spectrometers. However, one often finds difficulties in getting well-calibrated standard gases, because of their production time and high price. Additional difficulty is that fractionation processes can occur inside the gas cylinder most likely due to pressure drop in long-term use. Therefore, studies on laboratory production of pure $CO_2$ isotope standard gas from stable solid calcium carbonate standard materials, have been performed. For this study, we propose a method to extract pure $CO_2$ gas without isotope fractionation from a solid calcium carbonate material. The method is similar to that suggested by Coplen et al., (1983), but is better optimized particularly to make a large amount of pure $CO_2$ gas from calcium carbonate material. The $CaCO_3$ releases $CO_2$ in reaction with 100% pure phosphoric acid at $25^{\circ}C$ in a custom designed, evacuated reaction vessel. Here we introduce optimal procedure, reaction conditions, and samples/reactants size for calcium carbonate-phosphoric acid reaction and also provide the details for extracting, purifying and collecting $CO_2$ gas out of the reaction vessel. The measurements for ${\delta}^{18}O$ and ${\delta}^{13}C$ of $CO_2$ were performed at Seoul National University using a stable isotope ratio mass spectrometer (VG Isotech, SIRA Series II) operated in dual-inlet mode. The entire analysis precisions for ${\delta}^{18}O$ and ${\delta}^{13}C$ were evaluated based on the standard deviations of multiple measurements on 15 separate samples of purified $CO_2$. The pure $CO_2$ samples were taken from 100-mg aliquots of a solid calcium carbonate (Solenhofen-ori $CaCO_3$) during 8-day experimental period. The multiple measurements yielded the $1{\sigma}$ precisions of ${\pm}0.01$‰ for ${\delta}^{13}C$ and ${\pm}0.05$‰ for ${\delta}^{18}O$, comparable to the internal instrumental precisions of SIRA. Therefore, we conclude the method proposed in this study can serve as a way to produce an accurate secondary and/or laboratory $CO_2$ standard gas. We hope this study helps resolve difficulties in placing a laboratory working standard onto the international isotope scales and does make accurate comparisons with other data sets from other groups.

A Study on Oil Price Risk Affecting the Korean Stock Market (한국주식시장에 파급되는 국제유가의 위험에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Ji-Yong
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.75-106
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    • 2007
  • In this study, it is analyzed whether oil price plays a major role in the pricing return on Koran stock market and examined why the covariance risk between oil and return on stock is different in each industry. Firstly, this study explores whether the expected rate of return on stock is pricing due to global oil price factors as a function of risk premium by using a two-factor APT. Also, it is examined whether spill-over effects of oil price volatility affect the beta risk to oil price. Considering the asymmetry of oil price volatility, we use the GJR model. As a result, it shows that oil price is an independent pricing factor and oil price volatility transmits to stock return in only electricity and electrical equipment. Secondly, the two step-analyzing process is introduced to find why the covariance between oil price factor and stock return is different in each industry. The first step is to study whether beta risk exists in each industry by using two proxy variables like size and liquidity as control variables. The second step is to grasp the systematic relationship between the difference of liquidity and size and beta to oil price factor by using the panel-data model which can be analyzed efficiently using the cross-sectional data formed with time series. Through the analysis, we can argue that oil price factor is an independent pricing factor in only electricity and electrical equipment having the greatest market capitalization, and know that beta risk to oil price factor is a proxy of size in the other industries. According to the result of panel-data model, it is argued that the beta to oil price factor augments when market capitalization increases and this fact supports the first assertion. In conclusion, the expected rate of return of electricity and electrical equipment works as a function of risk premium to market portfolio and oil price, and the reason to make beta risk power differentiated in each industry attributes to the size.

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Detecting Phenology Using MODIS Vegetation Indices and Forest Type Map in South Korea (MODIS 식생지수와 임상도를 활용한 산림 식물계절 분석)

  • Lee, Bora;Kim, Eunsook;Lee, Jisun;Chung, Jae-Min;Lim, Jong-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.34 no.2_1
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    • pp.267-282
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    • 2018
  • Despite the continuous development of phenology detection studies using satellite imagery, verification through comparison with the field observed data is insufficient. Especially, in the case of Korean forests patching in various forms, it is difficult to estimate the start of season (SOS) by using only satellite images due to resolution difference. To improve the accuracy of vegetation phenology estimation, this study reconstructed the large scaled forest type map (1:5,000) with MODIS pixel resolution and produced time series vegetation phenology curves from Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) derived from MODIS images. Based on the field observed data, extraction methods for the vegetation indices and SOS for Korean forests were compared and evaluated. We also analyzed the correlation between the composition ratio of forest types in each pixel and phenology extraction from the vegetation indices. When we compared NDVI and EVI with the field observed SOS data from the Korea National Arboretum, EVI was more accurate for Korean forests, and the first derivative was most suitable for extracting SOS in the phenology curve from the vegetation index. When the eight pixels neighboring the pixels of 7 broadleaved trees with field SOS data (center pixel) were compared to field SOS, the forest types of the best pixels with the highest correlation with the field data were deciduous forest by 67.9%, coniferous forest by 14.3%, and mixed forest by 7.7%, and the mean coefficient of determination ($R^2$) was 0.64. The average national SOS extracted from MODIS EVI were DOY 112.9 in 2014 at the earliest and DOY 129.1 in 2010 at the latest, which is about 0.16 days faster since 2003. In future research, it is necessary to expand the analysis of deciduous and mixed forests' SOS into the extraction of coniferous forest's SOS in order to understand the various climate and geomorphic factors. As such, comprehensive study should be carried out considering the diversity of forest ecosystems in Korea.

Global Temperature Trends of Lower Stratosphere Derived from the Microwave Satellite Observations and GCM Reanalyses (마이크로파 위성관측과 모델 재분석에서 조사된 전지구에 대한 하부 성층권 온도의 추세)

  • Yoo, Jung-Moon;Yoon, Sun-Kyung;Kim, Kyu-Myong
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.388-404
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    • 2001
  • In order to examine the relative accuracy of satellite observations and model reanalyses about lower stratospheric temperature trends, two satellite-observed Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) channel 4 (Ch 4) brightness temperature data and two GCM (ECMWF and GEOS) reanalyses during 1981${\sim}$1993 have been intercompared with the regression analysis of time series. The satellite data for the period of 1980${\sim}$1999 are MSU4 at nadir direction and SC4 at multiple scans, respectively, derived in this study and Spencer and Christy (1993). The MSU4 temperature over the globe during the above period shows the cooling trend of -0.35 K/decade, and the cooling over the global ocean is 1.2 times as much as that over the land. Lower stratospheric temperatures during the common period (1981${\sim}$1993) globally show the cooling in MSU4 (-0.14 K/decade), SC4 (-0.42 K/decade) and GEOS (-0.15 K/decade) which have strong annual cycles. However, ECMWF shows a little warming and weak annual cycle. The 95% confidence intervals of the lower stratospheric temperature trends are greater than those of midtropospheric (channel 2) trends, indicating less confidence in Ch 4. The lapse rate in the trend between the above two atmospheric layers is largest over the northern hemispheric land. MSU4 has low correlation with ECMWF over the globe, and high value with GEOS near the Korean peninsula. Lower correlations (r < 0.6) between MSU4 and SC4 (or ECMWF) occur over $30^{\circ}$N latitude belt, where subtropical jet stream passes. Temporal correlation among them over the globe is generally high (r > 0.6). Four kinds of lower stratospheric temperature data near the Korean peninsula commonly show cooling trends, of which the SC4 values (-0.82 K/decade) is the largest.

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Developing Korean Forest Fire Occurrence Probability Model Reflecting Climate Change in the Spring of 2000s (2000년대 기후변화를 반영한 봄철 산불발생확률모형 개발)

  • Won, Myoungsoo;Yoon, Sukhee;Jang, Keunchang
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.199-207
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    • 2016
  • This study was conducted to develop a forest fire occurrence model using meteorological characteristics for practical forecasting of forest fire danger rate by reflecting the climate change for the time period of 2000yrs. Forest fire in South Korea is highly influenced by humidity, wind speed, temperature, and precipitation. To effectively forecast forest fire occurrence, we developed a forest fire danger rating model using weather factors associated with forest fire in 2000yrs. Forest fire occurrence patterns were investigated statistically to develop a forest fire danger rating index using times series weather data sets collected from 76 meteorological observation centers. The data sets were used for 11 years from 2000 to 2010. Development of the national forest fire occurrence probability model used a logistic regression analysis with forest fire occurrence data and meteorological variables. Nine probability models for individual nine provinces including Jeju Island have been developed. The results of the statistical analysis show that the logistic models (p<0.05) strongly depends on the effective and relative humidity, temperature, wind speed, and rainfall. The results of verification showed that the probability of randomly selected fires ranges from 0.687 to 0.981, which represent a relatively high accuracy of the developed model. These findings may be beneficial to the policy makers in South Korea for the prevention of forest fires.

Comparison on Patterns of Conflicts in the South China Sea and the East China Sea through Analysis on Mechanism of Chinese Gray Zone Strategy (중국의 회색지대전략 메커니즘 분석을 통한 남중국해 및 동중국해 분쟁 양상 비교: 시계열 데이터에 근거한 경험적 연구를 중심으로)

  • Cho, Yongsu
    • Maritime Security
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.273-310
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    • 2020
  • This study aims at empirically analyzing the overall mechanism of the "Gray Zone Strategy", which has begun to be used as one of Chinese major maritime security strategies in maritime conflicts surrounding the South China Sea and East China Sea since early 2010, and comparing the resulting conflict patterns in those reg ions. To this end, I made the following two hypotheses about Chinese gray zone strategy. The hypotheses that I have argued in this study are the first, "The marine gray zone strategy used by China shows different structures of implementation in the South China Sea and the East China Sea, which are major conflict areas.", the second, "Therefore, the patterns of disputes in the South China Sea and the East China Sea also show a difference." In order to examine this, I will classify Chinese gray zone strategy mechanisms multi-dimensionally in large order, 1) conflict trends and frequency of strategy execution, 2) types and strengths of strategy, 3) actors of strategy execution, and 4) response methods of counterparts. So, I tried to collect data related to this based on quantitative modeling to test these. After that, about 10 years of data pertaining to this topic were processed, and a research model was designed with a new categorization and operational definition of gray zone strategies. Based on this, I was able to successfully test all the hypotheses by successfully comparing the comprehensive mechanisms of the gray zone strategy used by China and the conflict patterns between the South China Sea and the East China Sea. In the conclusion, the verified results were rementioned with emphasizing the need to overcome the security vulnerabilities in East Asia that could be caused by China's marine gray zone strategy. This study, which has never been attempted so far, is of great significance in that it clarified the intrinsic structure in which China's gray zone strategy was implemented using empirical case studies, and the correlation between this and maritime conflict patterns was investigated.

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Comparison of Models for Stock Price Prediction Based on Keyword Search Volume According to the Social Acceptance of Artificial Intelligence (인공지능의 사회적 수용도에 따른 키워드 검색량 기반 주가예측모형 비교연구)

  • Cho, Yujung;Sohn, Kwonsang;Kwon, Ohbyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.103-128
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    • 2021
  • Recently, investors' interest and the influence of stock-related information dissemination are being considered as significant factors that explain stock returns and volume. Besides, companies that develop, distribute, or utilize innovative new technologies such as artificial intelligence have a problem that it is difficult to accurately predict a company's future stock returns and volatility due to macro-environment and market uncertainty. Market uncertainty is recognized as an obstacle to the activation and spread of artificial intelligence technology, so research is needed to mitigate this. Hence, the purpose of this study is to propose a machine learning model that predicts the volatility of a company's stock price by using the internet search volume of artificial intelligence-related technology keywords as a measure of the interest of investors. To this end, for predicting the stock market, we using the VAR(Vector Auto Regression) and deep neural network LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory). And the stock price prediction performance using keyword search volume is compared according to the technology's social acceptance stage. In addition, we also conduct the analysis of sub-technology of artificial intelligence technology to examine the change in the search volume of detailed technology keywords according to the technology acceptance stage and the effect of interest in specific technology on the stock market forecast. To this end, in this study, the words artificial intelligence, deep learning, machine learning were selected as keywords. Next, we investigated how many keywords each week appeared in online documents for five years from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2019. The stock price and transaction volume data of KOSDAQ listed companies were also collected and used for analysis. As a result, we found that the keyword search volume for artificial intelligence technology increased as the social acceptance of artificial intelligence technology increased. In particular, starting from AlphaGo Shock, the keyword search volume for artificial intelligence itself and detailed technologies such as machine learning and deep learning appeared to increase. Also, the keyword search volume for artificial intelligence technology increases as the social acceptance stage progresses. It showed high accuracy, and it was confirmed that the acceptance stages showing the best prediction performance were different for each keyword. As a result of stock price prediction based on keyword search volume for each social acceptance stage of artificial intelligence technologies classified in this study, the awareness stage's prediction accuracy was found to be the highest. The prediction accuracy was different according to the keywords used in the stock price prediction model for each social acceptance stage. Therefore, when constructing a stock price prediction model using technology keywords, it is necessary to consider social acceptance of the technology and sub-technology classification. The results of this study provide the following implications. First, to predict the return on investment for companies based on innovative technology, it is most important to capture the recognition stage in which public interest rapidly increases in social acceptance of the technology. Second, the change in keyword search volume and the accuracy of the prediction model varies according to the social acceptance of technology should be considered in developing a Decision Support System for investment such as the big data-based Robo-advisor recently introduced by the financial sector.