• Title/Summary/Keyword: Tidal Prediction

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An Improved Method for Phenology Model Parameterization Using Sequential Optimization (순차적인 최적화 기법에 의한 생물계절모형 모수추정 방식 개선)

  • Yun, Kyungdahm;Kim, Soo-Hyung
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.304-308
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    • 2014
  • Accurate prediction of peak bloom dates (PBD) of flowering cherry trees is critical for organizing local cherry festivals and other associated cultural and economic activities. A two-step phenology model is commonly used for predicting flowering time depending on local temperatures as a result of two consecutive steps followed by chill and heat accumulations. However, an extensive computation requirement for parameter estimation has been a limitation for its practical use. We propose a sequential parameterization method by exploiting previously unused records of development stages. With an extra constraint formed by heat accumulation between two intervening stages, each parameter can then be solved sequentially in much shorter time than the brute-force method. The result was found to be almost identical to the previous solution known for cherry trees (Prunus ${\times}$ yedoensis) in the Tidal Basin, Washington D.C.

A Numerical Prediction of Nutrient circulation in Hakata Bay by Sediment-Water Ecological Model(SWEM) (수-저질생태계모델에 의한 박다만의 물질순환예측)

  • Lee In-Cheol;Ryu Cheong-Ro
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.3-14
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    • 2001
  • In order to predict nutrient circulation in Hakata bay, we have developed an ecosystem model named the Sediment-Water Ecological Model (SWEM). The model, consisting of two sub-models with hydrodynamic and biological models, simulates the circulation process of nutrient between water column and sediment, such as nutrient regeneration from sediments as well as ecological structures on the growth of phytoplankton and zooplankton. This model was applied to prevent eutrophication in Hakata bay, located in western Japan. The calculated results of the tidal currents by the hydrodynamic model showed good agreement with the observed currents. Moreover, SWEM simulated reasonably well the seasonal variations of water quality, and reproduced spatial heterogeneity of water quality in the bay, observed in the field. According to the simulation of phosphorus circulation at the head of the bay, it was predicted that the regeneration process of phosphorus across the sediment-water interface had a strong influence on the water quality of the bay.

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Impacts on Water Surface Level of the Geum River with the Diversion Tunnel Operation for Low Flow Augmentation of the Boryong Dam (금강-보령댐 도수터널 운영에 따른 금강 본류 내 수위 영향 분석 연구)

  • Jang, Suk-Hwan;Oh, Kyoung-Doo;Oh, Ji-Hwan
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.26 no.9
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    • pp.1031-1043
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    • 2017
  • Recently severe drought caused the water shortage around the western parts of Chungcheongnamdo province, South Korea. A Diversion tunnel from the Geum river to the Boryong dam, which is the water supply dam for these areas has been proposed to solve this problem. This study examined hydraulic impacts on the Geum river associated with the diversion plan assuming the severe drought condition of 2015 would persist for the simulation period of 2016. The hydraulic simulation model was verified using hydrologic and hydraulic data including hourly discharges of the Geum river and its 8 tributaries, fluctuation of tidal level at the mouth of the river, withdrawals and return flows and operation records of the Geum river barrage since Feb. 1, 2015 through May 31, 2015. For the upstream boundary condition of the Geum river predicted inflow series using the nonlinear regression equation for 2015 discharge data was used. In order to estimate the effects of uncertainty in inflow prediction to the results total four inflow series consisting of upper limit flow, expected flow, lower limit flow and instream flow were used to examine hydraulic impacts of the diversion plan. The simulation showed that in cases of upper limit and expected flows there would be no problem in taking water from the Geum river mouth with a minimum water surface level of EL(+) 1.44 m. Meanwhile, the simulation also showed that in cases of lower limit flow and instream flow there would be some problems not only in taking water for water supply from the mouth of the Geum river but also operating the diversion facility itself with minimum water surface levels of EL(+) 0.94, 0.72, 0.43, and 0.14 m for the lower limit flow without/with diversion and the instream flow without/with diversion, respectively.

Evaluation of Energy Production for a Small Wind Turbine Installed in an Island Area (도서지역 소형풍력발전기 에너지 발생량 평가)

  • Jang, Choon-Man;Lee, Jong-Sung;Jeon, Wan-Ho;Lim, Tae-Gyun
    • Transactions of the Korean hydrogen and new energy society
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.558-565
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    • 2013
  • This paper presents how to determine AEP(Annual Energy Production) by a small wind turbine in DuckjeokDo island. Evaluation of AEP is introduced to make a self-contained island including renewable energy sources of wind, solar, and tidal energy. To determine the AEP in DuckjeokDo island, a local wind data is analyzed using the annual wind data from Korea Institute of Energy Research firstly. After the wind data is separated in 12-direction, a mean wind speed at each direction is determined. And then, a small wind turbine power curve is selected by introducing the capacity of a small wind turbine and the energy production of the wind turbine according to each wind direction. Finally, total annual wind energy production for each small wind turbine can be evaluated using the local wind density and local energy production considering a mechanical energy loss. Throughout the analytic study, it is found that the AEP of DuckjeokDo island is about 2.02MWh/y and 3.47MWh/y per a 1kW small wind turbine installed at the altitude of 10 m and 21m, respectively.

Development of Maintenance Simulation System and Prediction of Chloride Ion Permeation for Marine Concrete Structures (해양콘크리트 구조물의 염해 예측 및 유지보수 시뮬레이션시스템 개발)

  • Lee, Chang Su;Kim, Meyong Won
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.64-75
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    • 2013
  • As both laboratory accelerated experiment and field exposure experiment were performed, at recent, the fifth field test at five year exposures was proceeded according to long period experimental plan. Field experiment, for the adoption of the developed evaluation model, which is consisted of the analysis of chloride penetration profile at gate bridges of sea-dike completed 30 years ago was carried out during upgrading the basic evaluation model with analyzing the annual field test data. The surface concentration of chlorides was replaced to the concentration of chloride of inner concrete near the surface chlorides among his research results at basic model. Maage's suggestion function was accepted too as a diffusion coefficient of chloride after verifying the change of diffusion coefficient by analysis of annual field test data. The comparison of field data with model predictions and the estimation of remaining life time demonstrates that the proposed updated model and maintenance simulation system can be used to predict the chloride penetration profile in the marine tidal zone and appropriate repair period and cost.

Prediction of Potential Shoreline Retreat by Sea Level Rise (해수면 상승에 의한 해안선의 잠재적 후퇴거리 산정)

  • 손창배
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.34-40
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    • 1999
  • Models of beach response due to sea level rise were verified by experiments and potential shoreline retreat around Korea and Japan was predicted. Wave tank experiments demonstrated that not only static retreat by water level rise but also additional retreat by wave action plays an important role in total retreat and additional retreat becomes important on the condition of high waves. The result of long-term analysis of tidal data over past 3 decades shows the tendency toward rise by an average of 1.79 mm/year, which is the result of rise in 29 regions and fall in 12 regions. Based on analyzed rate of long-term sea-level rise, potential shoreline retreats of study area after 50 years were calculated and the result shows serious loss of beach.

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Prediction of Long-Term River Bed Changes in Saemangeum Area (새만금지구 장기 하상변동 예측)

  • Jung, Jae-Sang;Song, Hyun Ku;Lee, Jong Sup;Kim, Gweon Su
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.394-398
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    • 2016
  • Numerical analysis was conducted using Delft3D developed by Deltares in Netherlands to predict long-term river bed changes in Saemangeum Area. Tidal flow, discharge through the drainage gates and river bed changes in numerical model was verified by comparing to the results of field observation and hydraulic experiments. We calculated long-term river bed changes in Saemangeum area for 10 years from 2031 to 2040 after completion of development in Saemangeum. It is shown that 70 cm and 139 cm of accumulation occur in estuaries of Dongjin River and Mankyong River, respectively. Variation of flood level was also investigated considering long-term river bed changes. There was no change in estuary of Dongjin River but maximum flood level in estuary of Mankyong River increased 81 cm.

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Spatial distribution of halophytes and environment factors in salt marshes along the eastern Yellow Sea

  • Chung, Jaesang;Kim, Jae Hyun;Lee, Eun Ju
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.45 no.4
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    • pp.264-276
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    • 2021
  • Background: Salt marshes provide a variety of ecosystem services; however, they are vulnerable to human activity, water level fluctuations, and climate change. Analyses of the relationships between plant communities and environmental conditions in salt marshes are expected to provide useful information for the prediction of changes during climate change. In this study, relationships between the current vegetation structure and environmental factors were evaluated in the tidal flat at the southern tip of Ganghwa, Korea, where salt marshes are well-developed. Results: The vegetation structure in Ganghwa salt marshes was divided into three groups by cluster analysis: group A, dominated by Phragmites communis; group B, dominated by Suaeda japonica; and group C, dominated by other taxa. As determined by PERMANOVA, the groups showed significant differences with respect to altitude, soil moisture, soil organic matter, salinity, sand, clay, and silt ratios. A canonical correspondence analysis based on the percent cover of each species in the quadrats showed that the proportion of sand increased as the altitude increased and S. japonica appeared in soil with a relatively high silt proportion, while P. communis was distributed in soil with low salinity. Conclusions: The distributions of three halophyte groups differed depending on the altitude, soil moisture, salinity, and soil organic matter, sand, silt, and clay contents. Pioneer species, such as S. japonica, appeared in soil with a relatively high silt content. The P. communis community survived under a wider range of soil textures than previously reported in the literature; the species was distributed in soils with relatively low salinity, with a range expansion toward the sea in areas with freshwater influx. The observed spatial distribution patterns may provide a basis for conservation under declining salt marshes.

Sensitivity of Simulated Water Temperature to Vertical Mixing Scheme and Water Turbidity in the Yellow Sea (수직 혼합 모수화 기법과 탁도에 따른 황해 수온 민감도 실험)

  • Kwak, Myeong-Taek;Seo, Gwang-Ho;Choi, Byoung-Ju;Kim, Chang-Sin;Cho, Yang-Ki
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.111-121
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    • 2013
  • Accurate prediction of sea water temperature has been emphasized to make precise local weather forecast and to understand change of ecosystem. The Yellow Sea, which has turbid water and strong tidal current, is an unique shallow marginal sea. It is essential to include the effects of the turbidity and the strong tidal mixing for the realistic simulation of temperature distribution in the Yellow Sea. Evaluation of ocean circulation model response to vertical mixing scheme and turbidity is primary objective of this study. Three-dimensional ocean circulation model(Regional Ocean Modeling System) was used to perform numerical simulations. Mellor- Yamada level 2.5 closure (M-Y) and K-Profile Parameterization (KPP) scheme were selected for vertical mixing parameterization in this study. Effect of Jerlov water type 1, 3 and 5 was also evaluated. The simulated temperature distribution was compared with the observed data by National Fisheries Research and Development Institute to estimate model's response to turbidity and vertical mixing schemes in the Yellow Sea. Simulations with M-Y vertical mixing scheme produced relatively stronger vertical mixing and warmer bottom temperature than the observation. KPP scheme produced weaker vertical mixing and did not well reproduce tidal mixing front along the coast. However, KPP scheme keeps bottom temperature closer to the observation. Consequently, numerical ocean circulation simulations with M-Y vertical mixing scheme tends to produce well mixed vertical temperature structure and that with KPP vertical mixing scheme tends to make stratified vertical temperature structure. When Jerlov water type is higher, sea surface temperature is high and sea bottom temperature is low because downward shortwave radiation is almost absorbed near the sea surface.

Geo-surface Environmental Changes and Reclaimed Amount Prediction Using Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System in the Siwha Area (원격탐사와 지리정보시스템을 이용한 시화지구 일대의 지표환경변화와 토공량 예측연구)

  • Yang, So-Yeon;Song, Moo-Young;Hwang, Jeong
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.161-176
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    • 1999
  • The objectives of this study are to analyze the changes of geo-surface topography in the Siwha embankment and the Ahsan city area by the image processing of Landsat Thematic Mapper data, and to estimate the reclaimed amount of the exposed tidal flat in the Siwha area using the GIS. False color composite, Tasseled cap, NVDI(normalized difference vegetation index), and supervised classification techniques were used to analyze the distribution of sediments and the aspect of topographical variations caused by artificial human actions. The total amount of the exposed tidal flat was estimated on the basis of the database snch as aerial photography, hydrographic chart, geological map, and scheme drawing in the Siwha area. The possible excavation regions for a seawall were predicted analyzing the supervised classification image of Landsat TM data. Tasseled cap images were used to observe the distribution of sediments. The difference of the NDVI images between spring and summer seasons indicates that deciduous and coniferous forests were distributed over the whole areas. The total fill-volume of the exposed Siwha tidal flat and the fill-volume of the construction planning seawall were calculated as $581,485,354\textrm{m}^3{\;}and{\;}3,387,360\textrm{m}^3$, respectively, from the digital terrain analysis. Daebu Island, Sunkam Island, and the part of Songsan-myeon were chosen as the cut area to make the seawall, and their cut-volumes were estimated as $5,229,576\textrm{m}^3,{\;}79,227,072\textrm{m}^3,{\;}and{\;}47,026,008\textrm{m}^3$, respectively. Therefore, the cut-volume of Daebu Island alone among three areas was sufficient to make the seawall.

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