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A Study on Stochastic Estimation of Monthly Runoff by Multiple Regression Analysis (다중회귀분석에 의한 하천 월 유출량의 추계학적 추정에 관한 연구)

  • 김태철;정하우
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.75-87
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    • 1980
  • Most hydro]ogic phenomena are the complex and organic products of multiple causations like climatic and hydro-geological factors. A certain significant correlation on the run-off in river basin would be expected and foreseen in advance, and the effect of each these causual and associated factors (independant variables; present-month rainfall, previous-month run-off, evapotranspiration and relative humidity etc.) upon present-month run-off(dependent variable) may be determined by multiple regression analysis. Functions between independant and dependant variables should be treated repeatedly until satisfactory and optimal combination of independant variables can be obtained. Reliability of the estimated function should be tested according to the result of statistical criterion such as analysis of variance, coefficient of determination and significance-test of regression coefficients before first estimated multiple regression model in historical sequence is determined. But some error between observed and estimated run-off is still there. The error arises because the model used is an inadequate description of the system and because the data constituting the record represent only a sample from a population of monthly discharge observation, so that estimates of model parameter will be subject to sampling errors. Since this error which is a deviation from multiple regression plane cannot be explained by first estimated multiple regression equation, it can be considered as a random error governed by law of chance in nature. This unexplained variance by multiple regression equation can be solved by stochastic approach, that is, random error can be stochastically simulated by multiplying random normal variate to standard error of estimate. Finally hybrid model on estimation of monthly run-off in nonhistorical sequence can be determined by combining the determistic component of multiple regression equation and the stochastic component of random errors. Monthly run-off in Naju station in Yong-San river basin is estimated by multiple regression model and hybrid model. And some comparisons between observed and estimated run-off and between multiple regression model and already-existing estimation methods such as Gajiyama formula, tank model and Thomas-Fiering model are done. The results are as follows. (1) The optimal function to estimate monthly run-off in historical sequence is multiple linear regression equation in overall-month unit, that is; Qn=0.788Pn+0.130Qn-1-0.273En-0.1 About 85% of total variance of monthly runoff can be explained by multiple linear regression equation and its coefficient of determination (R2) is 0.843. This means we can estimate monthly runoff in historical sequence highly significantly with short data of observation by above mentioned equation. (2) The optimal function to estimate monthly runoff in nonhistorical sequence is hybrid model combined with multiple linear regression equation in overall-month unit and stochastic component, that is; Qn=0. 788Pn+0. l30Qn-1-0. 273En-0. 10+Sy.t The rest 15% of unexplained variance of monthly runoff can be explained by addition of stochastic process and a bit more reliable results of statistical characteristics of monthly runoff in non-historical sequence are derived. This estimated monthly runoff in non-historical sequence shows up the extraordinary value (maximum, minimum value) which is not appeared in the observed runoff as a random component. (3) "Frequency best fit coefficient" (R2f) of multiple linear regression equation is 0.847 which is the same value as Gaijyama's one. This implies that multiple linear regression equation and Gajiyama formula are theoretically rather reasonable functions.

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High-Velocity Impact Experiment on Impact Resistance of Steel Fiber-Reinforced Concrete Panels with Wire Mesh (와이어매쉬와 강섬유로 보강된 콘크리트 패널의 내충격성 규명을 위한 고속충격실험)

  • Kim, Sang-Hee;Hong, Sung-Gul;Yun, Hyun-Do;Kim, Gyu-Yong;Kang, Thomas H.K.
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.103-113
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    • 2015
  • This paper studies impact performance of wire-mesh and steel fiber-reinforced concrete based on high-velocity impact experiments using hard spherical balls. In this experimental study, panel specimens were tested with various parameters such as steel fiber volume fraction, presence/absence of wire mesh, panel thickness, impact velocity, and aggregate size for the comparison of impact resistance performance for each specimen. While improvement of the impact resistance for reducing the penetration depth is barely affected with steel fiber volume fraction, the impact resistance to scabbing and perforation is improved substantially. This was due to the fact that the steel fiber had bridging effects in concrete matrix. The wire mesh helped minimizing the crater diameter of front and back face and enhanced the impact resistance to scabbing and perforation; however, the wire mesh did not affect the penetration depth. The wire mesh also reduced the bending deformation of the specimen with wire mesh, though some specimens had splitting bond failure on the rear face. Additionally, use of 20 mm aggregates is superior to 8 mm aggregates in terms of penetration depth, but for reducing the crater diameter on front and back faces, the use of 8 mm aggregates would be more efficient.

Borrowing Constraints and the Marginal Propensity to Consume (차입제약과 한계소비성향)

  • Bishop, Thomas;Park, Cheolbeom
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.1-25
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    • 2011
  • Available evidence suggests that the average marginal propensity to consume (MPC) from the 2001 tax rebate in the US was not nearly as large as that from previous tax cuts. We examine if this phenomenon can be explained by the fact that the widespread use of credit cards has made borrowing accessible for most US households by constructing a model that simulates the dynamic effect of relaxed borrowing constraints. Our model uses Kreps-Porteus preferences which account for independent measures of relative risk aversion and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution, both of which can theoretically affect the willingness to save or spend. Our model shows that the average MPC drops substantially immediately after borrowing constraints are relaxed because few consumers have binding borrowing constraints at that time. The model also shows that consumers gradually reduce their wealth after borrowing constraints are relaxed, causing more of them to have binding constraints over time, which in turn causes the average MPC to rise gradually to a new steady state value that is slightly lower than the original value. This dynamic pattern of the MPC suggests that a greater ability to borrow with credit cards could explain the lower effectiveness of the 2001 tax rebate. In addition, the model predicts that consumers choose to hold lower amounts of liquid assets for precautionary reasons when they have a greater ability to borrow unsecured debt.

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Impact Resistance of Steel Fiber-Reinforced Concrete Panels Under High Velocity Impact-Load (고속충격하중을 받는 강섬유보강콘크리트 패널의 내충격성능)

  • Kim, Sang-Hee;Kang, Thomas H.K.;Hong, Sung-Gul;Kim, Gyu-Yong;Yun, Hyun-Do
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.731-739
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    • 2014
  • This paper describes the evaluation of the impact performance of steel fiber-reinforced concrete based on high-velocity impact experiments using hard spherical balls. In this experimental study, panel specimens with panel thickness to ball diameter (h/d) ratios of 3.5 or less were tested with variables of steel fiber volume fraction, panel thickness, impact velocity, and aggregate size. Test results were compared with each other to evaluate the impact resistance. The results showed that the percentage of weight and surface loss decreased as the steel volume fraction increased. However, the penetration depth increased with up to steel fiber volume fraction of 1.5%. Particularly the results of specimens with 20 mm aggregates showed poorer performance than those with 8 mm aggregates. The results also confirmed that the impact performance prediction formulas are conservative with (h/d) ratios of 3.5 or less. Despite the conservative predictions, the modified NDRC formula and ACE formula predict the impact performance more consistently than the Hughes formula.

An Evaluation for Effectiveness of Information Services by Reference Librarians at College and University Libraries in Korea (대학도서관 정보사서의 정보서비스 효율성 평가)

  • Han Sang Wan
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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    • v.13
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    • pp.95-119
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    • 1986
  • The objective of this study is to search for a theoretical and practical solution to the question of what is the most effective and qualitative method of information service for the college and university libraries in Korea. Assuming the maximum service or total service theory in information services, therefore, it appears natural that the subject specialist who is highly knowledgeable in his subject is indispensable in raising the quality of information librarians. The procedure of this research was as follows: There was no college and university library employing any full-time subject spceialist in Korea. This research, however, was proceeded on the assumption that subject specialists are already employed in all of the college and university libraries after the subject specialist system is established. The least qualification of subject specialist is limited, based on the criteria given by the foreign literature, to those who have master's degree in Library Science and bachelor's degree in any other subject area, those who have bacholor's degree in Library Science and master's degree in any other subject area, or those who have both bacholor's and master's degrees in Library Science with minor in any subject field . To prove the research hypothesis that the subject specialist will perform his role more efficiently than the generalist in effectively providing information service based on both accuracy and speed, this research as an obtrusive testing method analyzed the effectiveness by presenting information questions to the generalists and subject specialists who are information librarians in college and university libraries. For this study 20 librarians working at 12 university libraries were tested for performance levels of information services. The result showed $59.75\%$ an absolute performance rate and $75.20\%$ an adjust performance rate. Compared to Thomas Childer's 1970 study in which he used the unobtrusive testing method, these results were $5\%$ higher in the absolute performance rate and $11.36\%$ higher in the adjust performance rate. In comparing the generalist with the subject specialist in efficiency of information service, while the absolute performance rate was $57.08\%$ and the adjust performance rate was $73.08\%$ in the case of the generalist, the absolute rate was $63.75\%$ and the adjust rate was $78.38\%$ in the case of specialist, therefore, the efficiency of the subject specialist was $6.67\%$ higher in the absolute performance rate and $5.30\%$ higher in the adjust performance rate than that of generalist. But the factor of speediness was excluded from the analysis because of the difference between the time the interviewers recorded and the time the interviewee recorded. On the basis of the result of this research, it should be desirable to educate subject specialists and employ them as information librarians and for them to function as efficient subject specialists in order to improve the effectiveness of information services, the nucleus of the raison d'etre of college and university libraries.

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A Statistical Study Evaporation tn DAEGU Area (대구지방의 증발량에 대한 통계학적 연구)

  • 김영기
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.3160-3169
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    • 1973
  • Rainfall, evaporation, and permeability of water are the most important factors in determining the demand of water. The Daegu area has only a meteorologi observatory and there is not sufficient data for adapting the advanced method for derivation of the estimated of evaporation in the Daegu area. However, by using available data, the writer devoted his great effort in deriving the most reasonable formula applicable to the Daegu area and it is adaptable for various purposes such as industry and estimation of groundwater etc. The data used in this study was the monthly amount of evaporation of the Daegu area for the past 13 years(1960 to 1970). A year can be divided into two groups by relative degrees of evaporation in this area: the first group (less evaporation) is January, February, March, October, November, and December, and the second (more evaporation) is April, May, June, July, August, and September. The amount of evaporation of the two groups were statistically treated by the theory of probability for derivation of estimated formula of evaporation. The formula derved is believed to fully consider. The characteristic hydrological environment of this area as the following shows: log(x+3)=0.8963+0.1125$\xi$..........(4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 month) log(x-0.7)=0.2051+0.3023$\xi$..........(1, 2, 3, 10, 11, 12 month) This study obtained the above formula of probability of the monthly evaporation of this area by using the relation: $F_(x)=\frac{1}{{\surd}{\pi}}\int\limits_{-\infty}^{\xi}e^{-\xi2}d{\xi}\;{\xi}=alog_{\alpha}({\frac{x_0+b'}{x_0+b})\;(-b<x<{\infty})$ $$log(x_0+b)=0.80961$ $$\frac{1}{a}=\sqrt{\frac{2N}{N-1}}\;Sx=0.1125$$ $$b=\frac{1}{m}\sum\limits_{i-I}^{m}b_s=3.14$$ $$S_x=\sqrt{\frac{1}{N}\sum\limits_{i-I}^{N}\{log(x_i+b)\}^2-\{log(x_i+b)\}^2}=0.0791$$ (4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 month) This formula may be advantageously applied to estimation of evaporation in the Daegu area. Notation for general terms has been denoted by following: $W_(x)$: probability of occurance. $$W_(x)=\int_x^{\infty}f(x)dx$$ P : probability $$P=\frac{N!}{t!(N-t)}{F_i^{N-{\pi}}(1-F_i)^l$$ $$F_{\eta}:\; Thomas\;plot\;F_{\eta}=(1-\frac{n}{N+1})$$ $X_l\;X_i$: maximun, minimum value of total number of sample size(other notation for general terms was used as needed)

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Analysis of Salinity Impacts on Agricultural and Urban Water Users

  • Michelsen, Ari;Sheng, Zhuping;McGuckin, Thomas;Creel, Bobby;Lacewell, Ron
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.13-13
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    • 2011
  • The Rio Grande Compact Commission, in collaboration with local water management entities, water users and universities established a three state Rio Grande The Rio Grande Compact Commission, in collaboration with local water management entities, water users and universities established a three state Rio Grande Salinity Management Program. The objectives of the Rio Grande Project Salinity Management Program are to reduce salinity concentrations, loading, and salinity impacts in the Rio Grande basin for the 270 mile river reach from San Acacia, New Mexico to Fort Quitman, Texasto increase usable water supplies for agricultural, urban, and environmental purposes. The focus of this first phase of the program is the development of baseline salinity and hydrologic information and a preliminary assessment of the economic impacts of salinity. An assessment of the economic impacts of salinity in this region was conducted by scientists at Texas A&M University's AgriLife Research Center at El Paso and New Mexico State University. Economic damages attributable to high salinity of Rio Grandewater were estimated for residential, agricultural, municipal, and industrial uses. The major impact issues addressed were: who is being affected the types of economic impacts the magnitude of economic damages overall and by user category and identification of threshold-effect levels for different types of water use. Salinity concentrations in this 270 mile reach of the river typically range from 480 ppm to 1,200 ppm, but can exceed 3,000 ppm in the lower section of this reach. Economic impacts include reductions in agricultural yields, reduced water appliance life, equipment replacement costs, and increased water supply costs. This preliminary economic assessment indicates annual damages of $10.5 million from increased water salinity. Under current water uses, municipal and industrial uses account for 75% of the total estimated impacts. However, agricultural impacts are based on current crop pattern yield reductions and, salinity leaching requirements and do not account for the impacts of reduced revenue from having to grow salinity tolerant, lower value crops. Actual damages are anticipated to be significantly higher with the inclusion of these additional agricultural impacts plus the future impacts from the growing population in the region. A more comprehensive economic analysis is planned for the second phase of this program. Results of the economic analysis are being used to determine the feasiblity of salinity control alternatives and what salinity reduction control measures will be pursued.

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A study of the history of western imagination (서구 상상력의 역사 연구)

  • Hong, Myung-Hee
    • Cross-Cultural Studies
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    • v.29
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    • pp.113-131
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    • 2012
  • In our days, we live in the world of image and imagination. Now we think that the images and imaginations are no more selective but indispensable elements in our life. The status of imagination is dramatically changed since 20 century. Many philosophers like G. Bachelard, G. Durand, Paul Ricoeur, H. Corbin, G. Deleuze made great contributions and we think that the studies of imagination began since 20 century. But the change of the status of imagination was not made in one day. In the long history of human life, the imagination kept his own value, and never stopped to give his influence to the human mentalities. The concept of imagination was born from the Plato's notion of phantasia. Plato thinks that the phantasia is a kind of drawing capacity in mind in the process of recognition. But the image which phantasia makes is not real one but pseudo one. So it is necessary to banish those false images from our recognition. Aristotle thought phantasia as an afterimage of object of sense. The sense is always true, but the phantasia is very possible to be an error. After Plato and Aristotle, the notion of phantasia developed into that of imagination, but it was always a problem full of contradictions. According to G. Durand, we can say, in some sense, the history of western philosophy is a kind of struggle against the image and imagination. In Middle Age, the iconoclasm tried to exclude image from their religion. Thomas Aquinas tried to explain the image by the rationalistic christianisme. In 16-17C Galilei and Descartes solidified the exclusion of imagination from the philosophy in the name of science and reason. The empiricism and positivism was the final and the most conclusive philosophies which exclude the imagination definitively from the field of philosophy. But the imagination continued his influence in the field of art. In the age of Renaissance, the imagination found his way of liberal expression, and this trend was inherited to Baroque. From the middle of 17c many philosophical theories supported the imagination by many philosophers like J.-B. Dubos, Baumgarten, A. Becq, J.-J. Rousseau etc. The Romanticism was the first significant wave which made the imagination come forward in front the art. The romanticism broke the narrow frame of rationalism and expand human's view of the world to the cosmos. From the romanticism, the imagination became a faculty which expresses the unity of human and nature. That was impossible by the rational thinking of rationalism. The concept of new imagination made a new future of human, 'the imagining conscious' and this imagining conscious provided a solid base of next generation's symbolism and surrealism.

A Role for Ginseng in the Control of Postprandial Glycemia and Type 2 Diabetes

  • Vuksan Vladimir;Sievenpiper John L;Xu Zheng;Zdravkovic Uljana Beljan;Jenkins Alexandra L;Arnason John T;Bateman Ryon M.;Leiter Lawrence A;Josse Robert G;Francis Thomas;Stavro Mark P
    • Proceedings of the Ginseng society Conference
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    • 2002.10a
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2002
  • The use of herbals has increased considerably while their efficacy and safety remain untested. This unsupported surge in demand has prompted a call for their clinical evaluation. One area in which evaluations are emerging is ginseng and diabetes. Growing evidence is accumulating from in vitro and animal models indicating that various ginseng species, American (Panax quinquefolius L), Asian (Panax ginseng C.A. Meyer), Korean Red, San-chi (Panax notoginseng [Burk.] P.R. Chen), and the non-panax species Siberian (Eleutherococcus senticossus) ginsing, and their fractions, saponins (ginsenosides) and peptidoglycans (panaxans for panax species and eleutehrans for Siberian ginseng), might affect carbohydrate metabolism and related signaling molecules. Recent human studies from our laboratory have also shown a blood glucose lowering effect of American ginseng (AG) and some other ginseng spices postprandially after acute administration and chronically after administration for 8-weeks in people with type 2 diabetes. Although generally encouraging, these data only indicate a need for more evaluations of ginsengs safety and efficacy. Because of poor industry standardization, it is not known whether all ginsengs will affect blood glucose. In this regards some ginseng batches have demonstrated null effects while others have even raised postprandial glycemia. Clinical research should therefore focus on components involved in its glucose lowering effects.

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Impact of piezocision on orthodontic tooth movement

  • Papadopoulos, Nikolaos;Beindorff, Nicola;Hoffmann, Stefan;Jost-Brinkmann, Paul-Georg;Prager, Thomas Michael
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.51 no.6
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    • pp.366-374
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    • 2021
  • Objective: This study investigated the impact of a single piezocision in the maxillary alveolar process on the speed of tooth movement. The null hypothesis was that the speed of tooth movement will be equal with and without piezocision. Methods: All maxillary molars on one side were moved against the combined incisors in 10 ten-week-old male Wistar rats. Under general anesthesia, a force of 25 cN was applied on either side using a Sentalloy closed coil spring. After placing the orthodontic appliance, vertical corticision was performed using a piezotome under local anesthesia, 2 mm mesial from the mesial root of the first molar on a randomly selected side; the other side served as the control. At the beginning of the treatment, and 2 and 4 weeks later, skull micro-computed tomography was performed. After image reconstruction, the distance between the mesial root of the first molar and the incisive canal, and the length of the mesial root of the first maxillary molar were measured. Moreover, the root resorption score was determined as described by Lu et al. Results: Significantly higher speed of tooth movement was observed on the corticision side; thus, the null hypothesis was rejected. The loss of root length and root resorption score were significantly more pronounced after piezocision than before. A strong correlation was observed between the speed of tooth movement and root resorption on the surgical side, but the control side only showed a weak correlation. Conclusions: Piezocision accelerates orthodontic tooth movement and causes increased root resorption.