• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.7-18
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• 2012

This study suggested a method of forecasting market-share of each mode after introducing new urban rail transit lines. The study reflected the observed market share of presently operating urban rail transit into forecasting process in order to improve accuracy in predicting market share of each modes. For more realistic representation of the forecasting model, we categorized O/D pairs according to attributes of trip distance, access time and number of transfers. The analysis results of traveler's mode choice behavior with observed data showed that the trip distances are longer, the share of urban rail tends to be higher, and that the number of transfers is fewer and the access times are lesser, the share of urban rail also tends to be higher. Then, incremental logit model was used in estimating mode choice probabilities for O/D pairs along with rail transit lines while utilizing observed market shares of each modes and differences in transit service level. As the next step, the market share of rail transit after introducing new rail transit lines was forecasted by using incremental logit model with the intial share values calculated the previous analysis step. It also reflected changes in level of service for automobile in highway due to changes in highway systems and changes in mode shares after introducing new lines of rail transit. It can be expected that the proposed method would more realistically duplicates phenomena of mode choice behavior for rail transit and that it would be more theoretically logical than the typical existing methods using SP data and incremental logit model or using addictive logit model in this country.

• Journal of the Korean Society of International Agriculture
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.328-338
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• 2018

Central Asia (Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan) is a hot and arid continental climate, with most areas (68%) consisting of barren vegetation, desert, and meadows. The main agricultural areas for crop production include irrigated farmland, non-irrigated farmland, grassland, prairie and mountain. We are experiencing climate change with recent climate variability increasing. Agriculture is one of major economic sectors and provides a means of livings for the rural population of Central Asia, especially the poor. In the past two decades, Central Asia has experienced a high population growth rate, with Kazakhstan at 16.8%, Uzbekistan at 34.5% and Kyrgyzstan at 28.4%. As a major industry, Kazakhstan has the largest share of exports of agricultural products followed by petroleum, mineral resources, steel, and chemicals. Uzbekistan is the fifth largest cotton exporter as well as the sixth largest cotton producer in the world. Kyrgyzstan exports ores, stones, cultured pearls, and minerals. These three countries are rich in mineral resources, agricultural products, and energy resources. However, not only do they have difficulties in economic development due to the weakness of logistics and industrial infrastructure, but they also have imperceptible cooperation and investment among countries due to insufficient research and development. Through this study, we will investigate national outlook, economic indicators, major agricultural products, import and export status, and agricultural technology cooperation status, and study how Korean agricultural industry advances into these countries through SWOT analysis. Through this, we hope to contribute to the basic data of Central Asian studies and cooperation and investment in agriculture in each country. In addition, in order to increase cooperative exchange and investment in these countries, we will prepare a Central Asia logistics hub for the rapidly changing interKorean railroad era.

• Korean Business Review
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.137-170
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• 2008

This study is presenting the logistics strategy in the international logistics markets which makes competition and corporation among north-east Asian countries to establishing the multi-pass Eurasian railroads. The countries located in north-east area of Eurasia like China, Japan, Russia and Korea are paying higher costs and disutility to the transportations and communications due to repeated conflicts and confrontations causes from the politic problems. They are being used surface transportation for most of all logistics between Europe and Asia except special merchandises because of characteristic of cargo to be air, the Silk Road remains vestige only which was main logistic passage to this area since BC. So far the Trans-Siberian Railway is being used by Russia mostly as north of Eurasian transport because of difficulties of service. The Trans-China Railway built in 1992 is not accomplishing as a international logistic passages. It is expected to take a long lead time because of characteristic of resource development and poor logistic infrastructure to the countries like Uzbekistan, double landlocked country, Mongolia and Azerbaijan, the countries do not be adjacent to the sea, even they have great economic jump-up plans through the development of their own resources. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO) start to sail officially in 2001 is constructed with China, Russia, Tadzhikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan as regular members of 6 countries and Mongolia, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran as observers 5 countries. It is started as a military alliance to protect terror, but now, it is expended to cooperate with the traffic, transportation, trade and share of energies. The Russia is doing their best to activate TSR as a government target to developnorth area equivalently, and economic develop of far-east Siberia. And also it is agreed provisionally to improve and repair of rail road between Nahjin and Hassan to connect TSR and TKR( Trans-Korea Railroad) by Russia, North Korea and South Korea with Russian's aggressive efforts. The development plan of this area is over lapped with GTI(Greater Tumen Initiative) promoted by UNDP, and is a cooperated project by 5 countries of South Korea, Mongolia, China, Russia and North Korea, subject to review the appropriation of energy, tour, environment, rail road connection between Mongolia and China and establishing a ferry route to north-east Asia. It is Japanese situation to pay attention to Russia and China even they have been supplying large-scope of infrastructure in Mongol area without any charges, target to get East Asia Main Rail Road to connect Mongolia and Zalubino of Russia. In case of the program for the Denuclearization of North Korea is not creeping, it will be accelerated to connect the TKR and TSR, TKR and TCR by somehow attending United States, including developing program promoted by UN ESCAP. As the result, Korean peninsular will continue the central role of competition and cooperation as in the past, now and future of north-east Asia, as of geographical-economics and geographical-politics whether it is requested or not wanted by neighbor countries.